Nepal PM quits in hope to end crisis with Maoists

KATHMANDU, June 30 (Reuters) – Nepali Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned on Wednesday in a move aimed at resolving a political crisis and saving the peace process more than three years after the end of a decade-long Maoist civil war.

“I have decided to resign with effect from today to clear the way for a political consensus,” Nepal said in a televised address.

The country’s Maoists insisted on returning to power at the head of a unity government to oversee the preparation of Nepal’s first constitution after it turned into a republic two years ago.

The moderate communist Nepal succeeded Maoist leader Prachanda as prime minister in May last year after the former warlord quit in a conflict over the control of the national army.

Since then, the Maoists, who won the 2008 election for a special constituent assembly tasked to prepare a new constitution, had been pressing for Nepal’s resignation to pave the way for a national unity government headed by them.

The former rebels called the resignation a “positive” step to end the deadlock.

“We will make efforts for a national unity government with the consensus of all political parties,” Maoist spokesman Dinanath Sharma said.

But other political parties say the Maoists, who are the biggest political group in the assembly but lack the working majority, must dismantle their army camps before they are allowed to form a new coalition.

Maoists have so far refused to do so and the standoff forced the extension of the assembly deadline delaying the preparation of the charter until May next year. They had threatened to disrupt the budget session of parliament beginning next week if the leader did not resign.

Analysts said if the new government also kept the Maoists out it was unlikely to end the turmoil, sparking fresh bouts of street protests and general shutdowns.

The crisis has hit the aid-and-tourism dependent economy already facing long hours of power outages and a double digit inflation, raising popular frustration with the government. (Editing by Krittivas Mukherjee and Miral Fahmy)

Osama may be living comfortably in Iran

New York, May 4 (ANI): Elusive Al Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden may be leading a comfortable existence surrounded by his wives and children and protected by the Iran Revolutionary Guards.

According to a new documentary movie made by leading falconer, Alan Parrot titled ‘Feathered Cocaine’ Osama is not living in a dank cave nor is he looking for ways to evade his potential captors.

Parrot is one of the world’s top falconers and has worked for the Shah of Iran.

Owing to his rich experience as a falconer and proximity to the royal family, Parrot has cultivated influential contacts.

One of those contacts, described as a warlord from the north of Iran and disguised in a balaclava, reveals in the film that he has met Bin Laden six times on hunting trips inside Iran since March 2003 Fox News reports.

He claims Osama is relaxed and healthy and so comfortable that “he travels with only four bodyguards.”

Their last confirmed meeting was in 2008, “There may have been more since then, but I haven’t talked to my source since we left Iran,” says Parrot.

To prove his case, Parrot said he managed to get the telemetry setting for the falcons Bin Laden was flying, and he provided them to the U.S. Government.

“They could locate him to a one-square-mile area using those unique signals”’ he said. He says the government never contacted him for a follow up.

Former CIA agent Robert Baer, an outspoken critic of U.S. policy in the Middle East, seconds Parrot’s story in the documentary. He was a onetime Middle East operative.

He reaffirmed Parrot’s theory, pointing out that falconry is extremely important is to the vastly wealthy, and how Parrot’s position gave him a unique lens on that world. He also claimed that the proceeds from the falcon sales are used in a large part to fund Al Qaeda. (ANI)

Hakeemullah even if alive not in command of Pak Taliban anymore: Pentagon

Washington, Apr.30 (ANI): The Pentagon is unsure over the fate of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Hakeemullah Mehsud, but it is certain that the warlord does not exert any authority over the banned terror outfit anymore.

Speaking during a media briefing here, Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell said while Hakeemullah’s fate is still shrouded in mystery, it is believed that he is not in command of the Taliban.

“I certainly have seen no evidence that the person you speak of (Hakeemullah) is operational today or is executing or exerting authority over the Pakistani Taliban as he once did. So I don’t know if that reflects him being alive or dead, but he clearly is not running the Pakistani Taliban anymore,” The Daily Times quoted Morrell, as saying.

Earlier, a British daily quoted an Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) official as claiming that the Taliban chieftain, who was believed to have been killed in a US drone strike in South Waziristan in January, is alive.

“He (Hakimullah) is alive.He had some wounds but he is basically OK,” the official had said on conditions of anonymity.

Although neither the US nor the Pakistani agencies had confirmed Hakeemullah’s death, who was sworn in as the TTP chieftain following Baitullah Mehsud’s death in a similar missile attack in August last year, he was widely believed to have succumbed to injuries sustained during a missile hit in January. (ANI)

Gangster warns Berbatov for sending flirty texts to his girlfriend

London, Sep 2 (ANI): Manchester United striker Dimitar Berbatov has been threatened for sending flirty texts to a gangster’s lover.

The 30 million pounds soccer star allegedly made a series of great passes on model Nikoleta Lozanova, who was Playmate of the Year in his Bulgarian homeland in 2006.

Nikoleta’s boyfriend, Georgi “The Head” Stoilov, a mobster with a reputation for extreme violence was furious when told of the suggestive messages.

The gangster replied to the texts warning Berbatov to keep clear for his own good, The Sun quoted a Bulgarian magazine, as saying.

Stoilov became head of one of his country’s most feared clans when a bomb in a lift wiped out his father Stoil Stoilov and his minders in 2004.

Berbatov has been dating Elena Shtilianov on and off for three months and there is talk of pregnancy and marriage.

Friends of Berbatov dismissed Nikoleta, 31, a former lover of Liverpool reserve goalkeeper Nikolai Mihailov as “a fantasist”.

They claim she invented the texts to wind up Stoilov, and that Berbatov was surprised to receive threats from the mobster.

Berbatov was quoted as saying: “I’ve met her once, when she was with Nikolai, but nothing happened.”

A book last year claimed that a warlord kidnapped Berbatov in order to persuade him to switch teams when he was 18. (ANI)

Pakistan government’s strategy to “isolate” Mehsud a non-starter: Report

Islamabad, July 15 (ANI): The Pakistan government may have announced an all out war against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan,but it has so far failed to bring the important Taliban leader Jalaluddin Haqqani on its side as part of its strategy to isolate the warlord, the BBC reports.

While Pakistan Air Force’s fighter jets continue to pound suspected hideouts of the Taliban in South Waziristan, every step to garner support of Haqqani, a key Afghan leader, has failed.

Haqqani has refused to side by the government and isolate Mehsud.

Experts believe that the government’s strategy to disassociate Haqqani from Mehsud would never succeed.

It was Haqqani’s son, Sirajuddin who had played a vital role in uniting three major Taliban leaders – Hafiz Gul Bahadur, Baitullah Mehsud and Mullah Nazir in Waziristan, so it is very hard to believe that he and his father would side by the government, they opine.

The government, through local tribal leaders, is also pushing to alienate Hafiz Gul Bahadur and Mullah Nazir groups from Mehsud, but local tribals said its efforts have failed to yield desired results till now, The Nation reports. (ANI)

Pak Army’s tactics of relying on airstrikes against Mehsud may be ineffective: Report

Lahore, July 12 (ANI): The Pakistan Army might have been planning an all out offensive against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud in his stronghold, South Waziristan, but according to a report in an US daily, this planned operation won’t yield the desired results and is unlikely to be effective in eliminating the Taliban leadership.

Failure to gain substantial ground against the Taliban and nab the warlord would certainly disappoint the country’s western allies, a report in the US-based McClatchy newspaper said.

The report said the Pakistan military would rely largely on airstrikes in the operation against Mehsud than the on-ground combat, The Daily Times reports.

But this approach is likely to be ineffective, the report quoted some Pakistani officials and analysts, as saying.

“The nature of the operation is totally different from what we did in Swat,” a top Pakistan Army official said on conditions of anonymity.

“It is just blocking the entrance. Nothing goes in, nothing comes out. We’ll keep punishing the enemy with long arms, air power, Cobra helicopters. The tactics have been reversed. Initially they (the Taliban) used to wear us out, now the army is planning to wear them out,” he added.

The tactics of using air power would not quell militancy completely, and in that case it would certainly raise questions over Islamabad’s ability and commitment against the insurgents, the report said. (ANI)

Mehsud buying, selling children to use them as suicide bombers: Pak Army

London, July 8 (ANI): Pakistan, for the first time has admitted that the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud is virtually running a factory of suicide bombers, and using small children for the purpose.

The Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) spokesperson, Major General Athar Abbas said that Mehsud buys and sells children as young as 11 years old to be used as suicide bombers to strike strategic locations across the country.

“He (Mehsud) has been admitting he holds a training center for young boys, for preparing them for suicide bombing. So he is on record saying all this, accepting these crimes,” Major General Abbas told CNN.

The Pakistan Army also released a chilling video showing young children being trained for carrying out suicide bombings, The Daily News reports.

Mehsud, the alleged mastermind behind former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s assassination, has managed to ditch the security forces, even as the Pakistan Army has launched an all out operation against him in South Waziristan after it failed to nab the warlord during Swat and Malakand surge.

The Pakistan military has been getting assistance from the United States also, as the US drones are continuously pounding the Taliban’s hideouts in the restive tribal regions along the Afghan border.

However, the United States has never confirmed that it is carrying out missile hits inside Pakistan’s geographical territory, and Islamabad too has been complaining about the drone attacks.

But it is believed that both countries are working closely to hunt down the Taliban chief. (ANI)

Pak Army readying fresh ‘operational plans’ against Mehsud following rival’s assassination

Islamabad, June 25 (ANI): The Pakistan military is preparing new ‘operational plans’ against the Tehreek-e-Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud.

Sources privy to the military said that the plan against the Taliban chief had to be ‘readjusted’ after the death of Mehsud’s rival commander Qari Zainuddin.

Military officials rejected the notion that Zainuddin’s death, just before an all out operation against the Taliban warlord, had given a ‘setback’ to the government’s aim, and said such actions are not planned ‘around single individuals’.

“The killing of the anti-Mehsud commander had ‘come at the wrong time’ but was not a major cause of concern,” The Daily Times quoted a military official, who refused to be identified, as saying.

However, experts believe that by failing to protect Zainuddin’s life, the state stood humiliated.

“The government delayed the investment in Zainuddin and the result is that today the state stands humiliated as it could not protect its man against likely threats from Mehsud,” they opined. (ANI)

Mission against Mehsud will continue, vows assassinated rival leader’s successor

Islamabad, June 25 (ANI): Cracks within the Taliban are getting wider, with the younger brother of Qari Zainuddin, Misbahuddin Mehsud, vowing to continue the fight against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud until the Taliban warlord is killed.

Misbahuddin Mehsud, who was appointed the new chief of the Abdullah Group, a breakaway Taliban organization, said he would lend all support to the military operation in South Waziristan against the TTP chief to revenge Zainuddin’s murder, who was apparently killed for his anti-Mehsud remarks.

He said that the killing would not ‘demoralise’ us or affect the group’s mission, that is to eliminate Mehsud as soon as possible.

“We know who killed Zainuddin,” he said.

Meanwhile, a man claiming to be a deputy of Baitullah Mehsud has claimed the responsibility for Zainuddin’s murder.

The man identified as Waliur Rehman said Mehsud had ordered the killing of Zainuddin, as he defied the orders of Mehsud.

“We killed Qari Zainuddin because he was a traitor, he was killed on the orders of Baitullah,” The Daily Times quoted Rehman, as saying.

“Anyone who works against us will face the same fate,” he added.

In yet another sign of a rift inside the Taliban, a top commander, Tarkistan Baitni has said that the mission against Baitullah Mehsud would continue despite the killing of Zainuddin.

Addressing a gathering at Zainuddin’s funeral, Baitni said differences crept-up between Mehsud and Zainuddin due to the TTP chief’s decision to carry out terror strikes inside Pakistan targeting civilians.

He said Zainuddin was against carrying out attacks against own people. (ANI)

Killing Mehsud would deal a body-blow to Pak Taliban’s effectiveness: Experts

Washington, June 23 (ANI): The Pakistan Army has claimed that its Swat offensive has been successful with scores top Taliban leaders being killed, but the fate of Swat Taliban chief Mullah Fazalullah and the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud is still under wraps.

Now, the Pakistan security forces have shifted their focus on South Waziristan, the stronghold of Mehsud, and the region where the warlord is believed to be hiding, as experts consider that if Mehsud is nabbed, a large quota of the menace of terrorism would die down in times to come.

Mehsud, who has been blamed for carrying out several devastating terror attacks in Pakistan, including the brazen assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, holds a legendry status among the militants, and if the military is successful in sanitizing him, it would mean a severe blow to the extremists, a report in The Christian Science Monitor said.

Experts believe that Mehsud is the prime force that has been able to bind the different sections among the Taliban together, and if he falls the extremists could also fall apart reducing the formidable threat they currently pose, the report said.

“He (Mehsud) is the center of gravity in the war on terror. If you could take out the leadership, it would be a great force multiplier for Pakistan,” said Mahmood Shah, a security analyst and former security chief of Pakistan’s tribal areas.

It would take another four to five years for any other Talibani commander to reach the heights of Mehsud and carry on working on his (Mehsud’s) aims of crippling whole of Pakistan, it went on to add.

“For another individual to step in and gain that stature would take four to five years,” said a senior journalist, Mahmood Shah.

However, analysts also believe that simply capturing or killing Mehsud would not serve the purpose, as Taliban would have to be rooted out completely to quell extremism completely in the region, the report added.

“It (Pakistan government) would have to kill or capture the entire Pakistani Taliban leadership,” said Rifaat Hussain, a security analyst at the Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. (ANI)

Mehsud’s friend turned foe killed in Dera Ismail Khan

Islamabad, June 23 (ANI): The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud’s former close aide, Qari Zainuddin, has been shot dead in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) headquarters, Dera Ismail Khan.

According to sources, Zainuddin, who had recently criticized Mehsud terming his activities as ‘unIslamic’, was killed by a gunman on Tuesday morning.

The gunman has been identified as one Gulbadeen Mehsud, and said to be a resident of Makeen region, The News reports.

Sources said that Mehsud fired at Zainuddin from close range, killing him and injuring one of Zainuddin’s close associates seriously.

It may be noted that recently, Zainuddin had parted ways with the Taliban warlord, and charged him of acting against Islam.

Zainuddin had said that he was not in favour of carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, as it was against Islam.

Zainuddin said that he and many other insurgents had sided with the TTP chief against non-Muslims, and not for carrying out attacks inside the country. (ANI)

Mehsud’s training camp video worries Pak Army

London, June 21 (ANI): As the Pakistan Army prepares for a spectacular offensive against the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud is South Waziristan, a ‘jihadi’ video showcasing the strength of the insurgents has the security forces worried.

The 39-minute video, which was posted on an Al-Qaeda website recently, contains footages of a training camp which is supposedly based in South Waziristan, Mehsud’s stronghold.

The video has sent shock waves among the security officials, as they now fear a stiff resistance from the insurgents during their operation in the region.

The video titled, Revenge – the Big Attacks of Baitullah Mehsud, is probably the first such footage of a terror training camp running in South Waziristan which has been made public, The Times reports.

The video shows 18 of Mehsud’s loyals in balaclavas firing automatic weapons into the hillside in a display of force.

It also shows two pale skinned men loading a sophisticated weapon, which clearly suggests presence of some foreign recruits, including from western countries, in Mehsud’s army.

Experts also believe that there is every possibility of westerners joining the terror camps being run in the unattainable rough terrains of South Waziristan.

“It is ‘entirely likely’ that westerners could be attending training camps in Waziristan. Of 90 terrorism suspects convicted since 2003, at least half had trained in Afghanistan or Pakistan,” Director of the Royal United Services Institute, Professor Michael Clarke said.

Meanwhile, Pakistan Defence Minister Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar has said that the military is all prepared to launch an attack on the Taliban warlord Mehsud, and is just waiting for the green signal.

“He (Mehsud) is working against the interest of the state of Pakistan. We have a network of informers after him and the moment his whereabouts are known, the forces are going to hit him,” Mukhtar said. (ANI)

Mehsud, Fazalullah shift their base to North Waziristan

Peshawar, June 21 (ANI): As the Pakistan Army intensified its offensive against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan, some highly placed sources have revealed that the warlord along with his top commander, Maulana Fazalullah, has shifted base to Mirali region of North Waziristan.

According to sources, Mehsud and Fazalullah both were hiding in South Waziristan, but sneaked into North Waziristan soon after the government announced an all out operation against them.

It has also been disclosed that Mehsud held meetings with several Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban commanders, and is trying to shift the Taliban insurgents from Pakistan to Afghanistan.

Mehsud is being accompanied by the Taliban’s Swat chapter leader Fazalullah and several other top militant commanders in Mirali, The Nation reports.

Fazalullah was spotted in Makeen of South Waziristan before he moved into the neighbouring region.

The TTP Swat chapter spokesman Muslim Khan also visited both Mirali and Makeen regions recently to discuss the situation arising out of the military offensive in the region.

It is believed that the prior announcements made by the government about initiating an operation against Mehsud in South Waziristan, helped the TTP chief and close aides to flee from the region. (ANI)

The Afghan Taliban warlord Pak seeks as a “friend” is US’ worst foe

Islamabad, June 20 (ANI): With the Pakistan government deciding to initiate an offensive against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan, and ordering the troops to march in towards the warlord’s stronghold in the region, both the government and Mehsud now want Maulvi Nazir, a key Taliban commander in Afghanistan, to side by them.

While Mehsud is hell-bent upon creating havoc in Pakistan, Nazir is more focused on the Taliban’s activities in Afghanistan and fighting against the US led allied forces there.

For Pakistan, Nazir could apparently be an important ally, but it could also mean that Islamabad is trying to betray the United States because it (US) sees Nazir as a potential danger for its troops stationed in Afghanistan, a report in the Globe and the Mail said.

Pakistan is trying to woo one Taliban commander to fight against another, which suggests that it still has not been able to overcome the perception of ‘good’ Taliban and ‘bad’ Taliban, the report said.

“Pakistan still has this idea of ‘good’ militants and ‘bad’ militants. Baitullah is Pakistan’s problem. For securing U.S. objectives in Afghanistan, Maulvi Nazir remains important,” the report quoted Christine Fair, an analyst at Rand Corporation, as saying.

However, the United States, which considers Pakistan its key ally in the ‘war on terror’, has been continuously pressing Pakistan to act against all the militant organizations operating on its soil, rather than acting against only those which pose a threat to the country, the report added.

It is also believed that the Pakistan Army sees certain terror groups as an effective tool to safe guard its western border and wage a proxy war with India, it went on to add.

The military is of the view that if it takes initiatives to eliminate all the extremists on its soil then such a war could continue for several years and it would result only in generations of blood-shed, it opined.

Now, Pakistan is left with nothing but to make a choice that whether it wants to quell the problem which is even threatening its existence.

The Pakistani military should try to keep Nazir neutral, as he is highly unlikely to join the battle against its offensive targeting Mehsud.

Experts also believe that the golden rule of ‘divide and rule’ would be the best strategy against the extremists.

“It doesn’t pay if you push all the Taliban into one corner and start fighting them. It’s better to divide them,” said Mehmood Shah, a former senior security official for the tribal area. (ANI)

Mehsud rejects Mullah Omar’s appeal of stopping terror activities in Pak

Peshawar, June 20 (ANI): In yet another incident which proves that fissures in the Taliban are getting wider, the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud has rejected the calls of the Taliban’s supreme leader Mullah Muhammad Omar Akhund for halting terror strikes in Pakistan.

According to sources, Akhund had asked Mehsud to stop the terror acts in Pakistan and focus more on activities against the US led allied forces in Afghanistan.

“Mullah Omar is our Ameer, but like Afghanistan, we are determined to continue resistance in Pakistan,” Mehsud reportedly told a delegation of the Taliban.

Sources said the delegation asked Mehsud to shun his violent activities in Pakistan, which according to them is ‘damaging image of Taliban in Pakistan’, but Mehsud out rightly rejected the appeals of the 11-member delegation.

The top Taliban leaders who met Mehsud included Abu Yahya Al Laibi, Abdul Haq Turikistani, Siraj Ud Din Haqqani, and Abdul Hakeem Sharaee, The Nation reports.

In the past few days, Mehsud has been facing the ire of his former aides, as they have attacked the warlord for his decision to carry out terror strikes inside Pakistan.

Rival commander Qari Zainudin Mehsud recently blamed the TTP chief for all the terror strikes in Pakistan, and termed them ‘unIslamic’.

Another former close aid of Mehsud, Qari Turkistan charged Mehsud of being the biggest enemy of Islam.

“Mehsud attacked mosques and madrassas, ordered explosions in markets and the slaughtering of religious scholars and troops, it is not Islam,” Turkistan said. (ANI)

NATO to assist Pak Army in its offensive against Mehsud in South Waziristan?

Islamabad, June 20 (ANI): With the Pakistan government announcing a Swat like military offensive in South Waziristan with a primary motive to hunt down the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud, the NATO forces deployed in Afghanistan are also ready to extend help.

The allied forces stationed in Afghanistan will likely extend help in Pakistan’s military offensive, by sharing important intelligence inputs in order to prevent a probable spill-over of the militants, The Nation reports.

According to sources, unmanned US aircrafts have been constantly keeping a tight vigil and monitoring South and North Waziristan areas, to strike against the al-Qaeda and Taliban hideouts in the region.

When enquired about the deal between the Pakistan military and the NATO forces to share information, a top Pakistan official denied to either confirm or reject the deal on cooperation against Mehsud.

“Pakistan would definitely want the foreign troops stationed on Pak-Afghan border to prevent the militants from fleeing the battlegrounds by crossing over to their side of frontier in search of sanctuaries,” the official said.

Meanwhile, sources have also confirmed that the troops have blocked the roads leading to Mehsud’s stronghold in Makeen and other areas in South Waziristan, to prevent the warlord from fleeing from the region. (ANI)

SCENARIOS – Somali government takes fight to rebels

Somali government forces attacked insurgent strongholds across Mogadishu on Friday in a drive to retake strategic sites in the capital.

Here are possible scenarios for the Horn of Africa nation:

CAN GOVT WIN ON ITS OWN?

* The new government of President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed is seen by many as Somalia’s best chance for peace in 18 years. But it needs to eliminate the threat from hardline Islamist rebels including the al Shabaab group, which Western security services say is al Qaeda’s proxy in the country.

* Until Friday, pro-government forces had not looked strong enough to break Shabaab’s grip on parts of Mogadishu. But last week’s defection of a veteran warlord and former opposition leader with hundreds of fighters under his command may have prompted Ahmed to order the new offensive.

* Donors have pledged $213 million to build security forces and help African Union (AU) peacekeepers in Mogadishu, but funds are not being disbursed as fast as the government would like.

* Ethiopia says it will send troops back to Somalia if “terrorists” take power and threaten its security. But the return of thousands of Ethiopian soldiers looks unlikely, and the small AU mission AMISOM has no mandate to pursue the rebels.

* Pro-government forces may be able to take back significant parts of the capital, but experts say they will be hard-pushed to extend their reach to far-flung provinces.

CAN SHABAAB WIN ON ITS OWN?

* Estimates of Shabaab numbers vary, but may be around 10,000, experts say. The U.N. special envoy to Somalia says the group has been swelled by about 300 foreigners drawn by the prospect of fighting a jihad, or holy war, in a conflict that some have dubbed Africa’s Iraq.

* Although Ahmed is an Islamist, was co-chair of the old Islamic Courts Union (ICU) whose security wing was Shabaab, and parliament has voted to introduce sharia law, that has not satisfied the hardliners. They accuse him of selling out to the West by forming a government in a U.N.-sponsored peace process in neighbouring Djibouti and by accepting AU troops.

* Shabaab wants to topple Ahmed, implement a stricter version of sharia nationwide and expel the peacekeepers. Experts believe it has enough strength to do daily damage to the government, but probably not force it out altogether.

PROTRACTED FIGHTING?

* Protracted fighting, without a definitive outcome, is probably going to continue in the short- and medium term.

* Shabaab is likely to continue guerrilla-style strikes against the government and AU troops, as well as engaging in bigger battles when the administration steps up its response.

* The government and regional IGAD bloc accuse Eritrea of arming the rebels, but Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki denied it and told Reuters the allegations were the work of CIA agents seeking to tarnish his country’s image.

* A moderate Islamist movement, Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca, will continue to battle Shabaab in provincial areas, with territory going backwards and forwards between the two, analysts say.

* Mindful of the disastrous U.S.-U.N. intervention in the early 1990s, which collapsed after the “Black Hawk Down” killing of 18 American soldiers, the world is unlikely to intervene beyond trying to beef up the 4,300-strong AMISOM force and fund the government’s attempt to build an army.

* Neither the U.N. Security Council nor U.S. President Barack Obama have much political appetite for another major push of their own, and the Ahmed’s government fears any deployment of U.N. troops could rally fighters to the insurgents.

RECONCILIATION?

* President Ahmed has said he wants to talk to Shabaab and has sent emissaries — but the rebels have so far rejected his overtures and responded with insults and more attacks.

* An important figure in any reconciliation would be hardline opposition leader Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys. He returned to Mogadishu in April and is an influential figure for many Somalis.

* There are splits within the rebels, and clan rivalries look to be giving Shabaab some difficulties. On Thursday, the rebels replaced their main spokesman, who hailed from the south, with a colleague from Somalia’s central region.

* Experts say al Shabaab wants to shore up support among the area’s powerful Hawiye clan — whose elders have tried and failed so far to persuade Aweys to reconcile with fellow Hawiye, President Ahmed.

* Italy hosts donors on June 9-10 to discuss how to stabilise Somalia and tackle rampant piracy.

Pirates pose annoying distraction for Obama

Ragtag teams of modern-day Blackbeards are posing an annoying distraction for Barack Obama, forcing him to add Somalia to an already long list of foreign policy challenges.

American presidents are told to expect the unexpected, and Obama is seeing that this week. First it was a North Korean test of a ballistic missile last weekend. Now comes a swashbuckling high-seas standoff with armed renegades.

Obama so far has sent U.S. Navy ships to protect an American-flagged freighter that managed to repel a pirate attack but whose captain was taken hostage.

America’s recent experience with Somalia has not been good, making caution a key element of U.S. policy in dealing with the country.

The Obama administration was careful not to give the crisis too much prominence, with delicate negotiations under way to try to secure the captain’s release.

“We’re obviously paying careful attention to this issue. And I’m really not able to go beyond that at this point,” said State Department spokesman Robert Wood.

Obama, just back from a week-long trip to Europe and a morale-boosting visit to U.S. troops in Iraq, already has a long list of foreign challenges from North Korea to Iran to Afghanistan, and beyond.

He declined to comment on the pirate situation for the second day in a row on Thursday.

And the usually voluble Vice President Joe Biden said only: “This is being worked on around the clock since this happened. I’m not in a position right now (to comment).”

Somalia came to U.S. attention in 1992 when warring factions created a humanitarian crisis.

DISTRACTION

President George H.W. Bush, describing it as “God’s work,” sent U.S. combat troops to the east African nation in late 1992 there to lead an international U.N. force to secure the environment for relief operations.

“We will not stay one day longer than is absolutely necessary,” Bush said.

President Bill Clinton inherited the problem. He pulled most of the U.S. troops out in early 1993.

But those that remained were sent to track down warlord Mohamed Farah Aideed, ultimately leading to a 17-hour firefight in Mogadishu in which 18 American soldiers were killed, a disastrous battle that led to the book and movie, “Blackhawk Down.”

The pirate episode was a reminder to the United States that Somalia is a festering failed state — or as Foreign Policy magazine called it, “The Most Dangerous Place in the World” — and poses a foreign policy dilemma that will not go away.

“We don’t want to go back there,” said presidential historian Thomas Alan Schwartz, a professor at Vanderbilt University. “This may be one of those points where Obama is going to have to cash in some of his international chips and get the U.N. to go in there.”

“Somebody needs to go into Somalia and govern the place,” he said.

Democratic strategist Doug Schoen, who worked in the Clinton White House, called the crisis “a real test of national resolve” that the Obama White House and opposition Republicans need to work together to deal with.

“It’s an annoyance and a distraction,” he said. “On the other hand, if we don’t take this seriously and we don’t stamp it out we will face what other countries are facing, which are repeated acts of piracy.”

Pawar bows to Cong, skips Orissa rally

MUMBAI/BHUBANESWAR/NEW DELHI: NCP boss Sharad Pawar appears to have mastered the art of starting with a bang only to end with a whimper. The Maratha
warlord on Friday chickened out of the BJD rally he was scheduled to address with the Left in Bhubaneswar after the Congress conveyed to him that his hobnobbing with the CPM and CPI would be treated as an unfriendly act. ( Watch )

In a major climbdown, Pawar settled for addressing the Bhubaneswar rally via the phone, while his representative, NCP general secretary D P Tripathy, deferred to the Congress’s sensitivities by blanking out the Left from his speech at the rally.

The reason cited by the NCP for staying away from the rally-a sudden technical snag in the helicopter that was meant to take the Union agriculture minister from Nashik to Mumbai to take off for Bhubaneswar in a Bombardier Challenger-failed to cut ice with political circles in both Mumbai and Delhi. Even the Left blamed the NCP chieftain’s no show on `arm-twisting’ by the Congress.

In 1991, Pawar had, in similar fashion, dropped the gauntlet after staking his claim for the prime ministership. Friday’s development is seen as a setback to the credibility of the Third Front and an embarrassment for the Left, the mentors of the political toddler. Besides, it has strengthened the perception of Pawar as a quitter with little stomach for a fight.

Importantly, it underlined the Congress’s resolve not to yield easily to its junior partners-a pointer that the party may not oblige those who are planning to question its right to lead the next non-BJP coalition at the Centre.
Only on Thursday, the NCP had belligerently justified its participation in the Bhubaneswar rally, stating that the Congress, having rejected the idea of a national alliance, could not prevent its partners from drawing up their list of friends outside Maharashtra.

Sources said that Pawar blinked after the Congress, through an emissary, put it to him that his presence at a rally which the Left had tom-tommed as marking a challenge to the Congress would not be appreciated.

The caution emphasized by Pawar’s colleagues who questioned the need to antagonise the Congress for the sake of the Left-which counts for little in the NCP’s power base of Maharashtra-also contributed to the NCP boss choosingdiscretion over confrontation with his partner in Maharashtra which will have a huge say in deciding the make-up of the next non-BJP government.

On Friday, Pawar was at pains to distance himself from the Left. “I never said that we are part of the Third Front. I was going there because my party is contesting elections in Orissa in alliance with the BJD. We are with the UPA.” To disclaim any hostile intent towards the UPA, Pawar went on to declare that the UPA would achieve the “magic figure” when the results wereout on May 16.

He said that he had planned to go to Bhubaneswar only because his party was contesting one Lok Sabha and eight assembly seats in the state in collaboration with the BJD.

There were few takers for the `technical snag’ reason cited by the NCP for Pawar not making it to the BJD show. Party sources said that the helicopter developed a snag after coming to Mumbai for refuelling and could not go to Nashik to take Pawar to Santa Cruz airport from where he was to take off in a Bombardier.

Political circles in Mumbai quickly pointed out that Nashik had refuelling facilities and there was no need for the chopper to fly to Mumbai. They also said that Pawar, had he so wished, could have reached Santa Cruz airport in Mumbai by road from Nashik.
The Congress, which on Thursday publicly frowned at Pawar’s move to sup with the Left, made a disciplined effort not to gloat over the NCP chieftain’s about-turn. Party spokesperson Jayanthi Natarajan restricted herself to expressing satisfaction at Pawar heeding the Congress’s counsel to introspect on his proposed move to join the rally in Bhubaneshwar.

But its leaders were clearly thrilled with Pawar’s decision to hold back–that could help the party counter the perception that it could easily acquiesce in any attempt by its partners to revise the terms of trade. Reeling under the huge embarrassment, the Left blamed the Congress for `arm-twisting’ Pawar and tried to put on a brave front by arguing that while the damage to the UPA might have been delayed, it had not been eliminated.

But there was no doubt that with Pawar playing truant, the Third Front experiment had suffered a setback. The incident has also raised questions within the Left Front about the profitability of Prakash Karat’s enterprise in seeking to erect a so-called Third Front with a set of political mavericks.

Why is Cong complaining, asks Pawar

Sharad Pawar is running with the hares and hunting with the hounds. His proximity to the Third Front is getting the Congress’s goat but there is little they can do considering the Maratha warlord is as much of an asset as he is a liability.

According to former Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh, “the NCP is desperately trying to create a so-far non-existent wave in their favour” by promoting Pawar as a Prime Ministerial candidate but now Pawar has shot back with a categorical response: “What is wrong in seeking alliances with other political parties when the Congress itself has limited their alliance with us to just Maharashtra and Goa?” A storm has been created by Pawar’s decision to campaign alongside Naveen Patnaik of the BJD in Orissa tomorrow – critics have said that Pawar is attempting to forge a fourth front within the Third Front in order to strengthen his case for Prime Minister after the elections. Pawar, who was campaigning in Vidarbha on Thursday told Hindustan Times, “Why just Patnaik in Orissa? I tried for an alliance with Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu, too and one with Farooq Abdullah in Jammu and Kashmir.

But these attempts fell through. However, having been given one Lok Sabha seat and eight Assembly seats by Patnaik, it is my bounden duty to stand shoulder to shoulder with him as he launches his campaign tomorrow and help him win as many seats as possible.

” Asked if this will not send out the wrong message, Pawar said: “We accepted the Congress’s decision to go for state-wise alliances without question. Now they should have no problems if we seek our own alliances in other states.

Every UPA ally has the right to do that. The only party that is taboo to every other UPA party is the BJP. And if you talk about the Left parties, well, the NCP has an MLA in Kerala who won with the support of the Left.

So they have been our allies long before these elections.” While Pawar’s tactics are making the Congress nervous, his supporters say the Congress should consider that the NCP chief is keeping a line open to all Third Front leaders – he could be the bridge that might help Patnaik to join the UPA and also give an honourable entry back to the Left parties should the numbers dictate another Congress-led government at the Centre.

Pawar adds: “In the states, I am an ally of some of the non-BJP-NDA parties. In the Centre, of course, I am sitting firmly with the UPA.” The question that worries the Congress is: for how long?.