Q+A – How serious is the crisis on the Korean peninsula?

North Korea said on Friday the peninsula was heading towards war after Seoul accused the reclusive state of torpedoing a navy ship near their disputed border, driving tensions to their highest levels in years.

Following are some questions about how serious the crisis is and what may be behind North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s provocative moves.

WILL THERE BE WAR?

Most analysts believe there will not be war on the peninsula as long as South Korea holds its fire.

North Korea’s obsolete conventional armed forces and military equipment mean quick and near certain defeat if it wages full-scale war, and Pyongyang is well aware of its limits.

Even though it has exploded nuclear devices, North Korea has not shown it has a working nuclear bomb. Experts say they do not believe the North has the ability to miniaturise an atomic weapon to place on a missile, but the secretive state has been trying to develop such a warhead.

North Korea’s ageing fleet of Soviet-era bombers would also have difficulty evading the technologically advanced air forces of regional powers the United States, South Korea and Japan to deliver a nuclear bomb outside the country.

Moreover, South Korea has made clear it will not retaliate after findings showed it was a torpedo fired by a North Korean submarine that sunk the Cheonan corvette, killing 46 sailors.

The greatest risk that could fuel armed confrontation lies in small-scale skirmishes that might develop into larger conflict.

Another risk could be the buildup of U.S. military forces on the peninsula that will be seen by the North as a sign of imminent invasion, something that leaders in Pyongyang are said to be genuinely frightened of.

WHAT IS KIM JONG-IL TRYING TO DO?

The torpedo attack was almost certainly ordered directly by Kim Jong-il. The most likely explanation for the attack is that it was in retaliation for a naval skirmish last November that severely damaged a North Korean vessel. That ship had intruded into the South’s waters and was pounded with thousands of rounds of gunfire.

North Korea had a particularly rough start to the year in terms of economic difficulties after pledging on New Year’s Day to make it a top priority to improve the lives of the people. A botched currency reform in November nearly crippled what little market functions there were, reportedly inciting public unrest in some parts of the country and prompting authorities to ease restrictions on free market activities.

The suspension of aid from the South under President Lee Myung-bak since 2008 has deepened its economic woes. U.N. sanctions imposed after last year’s nuclear test have also cut into the North’s key source of hard cash — the trade in arms.

Analysts say the North’s leaders often resort to raising regional tensions to divert attention from troubles at home.

Kim, whose own health is in question, is trying to promote his youngest son as heir.

There is concern in the South that Kim may be inclined to more lethal provocations because the routine sabre-rattling of recent years no longer seems to work to force concessions out of the South and regional powers.

WHAT ARE THE RISKS TO INVESTORS?

President Lee’s government has hinted at taking the issue to the international community, mostly likely the U.N. Security Council, rather than taking the law into its own hands.

Market players do not expect the issue to escalate into armed conflict because they believe Seoul will not risk the damage to its own economy and the region as a whole, which accounts for about a sixth of the world’s economic output.

Last year’s nuclear test barely impacted financial markets which have become largely inured to the North’s behaviour.

But South Korean stocks took a dip and the won posted its biggest daily fall in more than 10 months on Thursday following the South’s formal announcement of blame for the ship sinking. Hawkish comments from both sides weighed on investor sentiment, already fragile after lingering concerns over euro zone debt problems.

Financial markets were closed for a holiday in South Korea on Friday but further comments from Lee next week on how Seoul would respond could weigh on sentiment, reflecting the highest levels of tensions in recent years.

On Thursday, five-year South Korean CDS was 10 bps wider at 130/135, the highest since September 2009. [EMRG/DBT] Three-year treasury June contracts ended up 7 ticks at 111.14.

(Editing by Jonathan Thatcher and Jeremy Laurence)

Security think tank says Iran can fire nuke missile by 2012

London, May 11 (ANI): The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has said that Iran could fire a nuclear missile by the year 2012.

It said that the Sajjil-2 missile, with a range of 1,400 miles, was test-fired at the end of 2008 and will be ready for deployment in 2012.

The weapon relies on solid fuel for propulsion, which means it has a short preparation time and can”t be as easily deterred by a pre-emptive strike, the IISS added.

Iran is the only country to have developed a missile of this reach without first having developed nuclear weapons,” the IISS report said.

The missile would be capable of hitting Israel and parts of southern Europe depending on the size of the warhead.

Mark Fitzpatrick, a specialist on Iranian security, said the report demonstrated that Iran had devoted substantial resources to ballistic technology.

“Logic and the history of Iran”s revolutionary missile and space launcher development efforts suggest Tehran would develop and field an intermediate range missile before embarking on a programme to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the American East coast,” the IISS report said. (ANI)

Q+A – Why is a U.S.-Russia nuclear deal important?

The presidents of Russia and the United States will meet in Prague to sign a new nuclear arms reduction treaty on April 8, the White House and Kremlin said on Friday.

The two largest nuclear powers have been formally negotiating on a successor to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) since April 2009.

* WHAT IS THE NEW TREATY?

- Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev said last April that they wanted to agree a new deal by the Dec. 5 expiry date of START I but talks snagged and the two sides agreed to act in the spirit of START until a replacement was ready.

The two leaders agreed in July that a new treaty would limit operationally deployed nuclear warheads to 1,500-1,675, and both sides said on Friday that the specific limit would be 1,550 — down from current levels of 2,200-2,700.

In the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT), also known as the Moscow Treaty, each side agreed to cut strategic nuclear warheads to 1,700-2,200 by 2012.

Obama and Medvedev said the limit for delivery vehicles — the missiles, bombers and systems that deliver a warhead to a target — should be in the 500-1,100 range. Negotiators agreed on a specific limit of 800, half the 1,600 set in START I.

* WHY IS THE AGREEMENT IMPORTANT?

– The quest for a START successor pact is a key part of efforts to “reset” relations after increasing tension that peaked with Russia’s 2008 war against U.S.-supported Georgia.

Obama has said improving ties with Russia, a key player in Iran and an important source of support on Afghanistan, is a priority.

– Both the United States and Russia, which hold 95 percent of the world’s nuclear arms, say further reductions in their arsenals will improve mutual trust and send a strong signal to other nations at a time when global powers are trying to rein in the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea.

– The agreement could help create the momentum for a nuclear security summit Obama is hosting in mid-April and a May conference to review the 1970 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

– For Russia, its vast store of Soviet-era nuclear weapons is one of the factors keeping Moscow at the top table of world politics.

After Russia’s conventional forces were starved of cash in the chaos that followed the 1991 Soviet collapse, its still mighty nuclear deterrent is the centrepiece of the Kremlin’s military doctrine.

– Both sides said the new deal will include detailed verification procedures that were absent from the 2002 Moscow Treaty — an omission cited by arms experts as a major flaw However, the verification procedures will not be as onerous as in START I.

Verification procedures such as inspections and access to data about missile tests is important because it helps the former Cold War foes accurately to predict how many weapons each side has and thus reduces the chance of a new arms race.

– A replacement for START I is seen as the first step towards much deeper cuts. Both sides hope an agreement on START could lay the ground for more ambitious talks about reducing the silos of thousands of non-deployed nuclear warheads and shorter-range tactical nuclear warheads.

Those talks could also impose must bigger cuts to deployed strategic warheads and delivery systems.

* WHY DID THE TALKS TAKE LONGER THAN HOPED?

– The two sides agreed on a news blackout from negotiations in Geneva, so there were few details about what caused the delay in achieving a deal.

– Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in December that U.S. plans for a missile defence system were the main obstacle to reaching a new deal, suggesting Moscow wanted it to limit missile defences.

Obama and Medvedev agreed in July that the treaty will contain a provision describing the relationship between offensive and defensive weapons, but the United States says the pact is not the place for details on missile defence.

– Remarks about the treaty from both sides on Friday suggested that it will not place specific limits on missile defence. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said either side has the right to stop reducing strategic offensive weapons if the other side increases its capacity for defence against those missiles.

– Negotiations over verification measures were said to have been intense. Russia has called for more relaxed procedures than in START I.

That is in part because while Russia has been developing new nuclear missiles to take the place of aging models, the United States is relying mostly on models that will be in service for years to come, prompting Russia to contend that it is getting little new information from verification measures.

(Writing by Guy Faulconbridge and Steve Gutterman in Moscow)

Antony congratulates scientists for successful launch of Prithvi-II, Dhanush missiles

New Delhi, Mar.27 (ANI): Defence Minister A K Antony on Saturday congratulated scientists for the successful test-firing of the indigenously developed ballistic missiles ”Prithvi II” and ”Dhanush” from different locations off the Orissa coast.

“I congratulate scientists for the successful launch of both missiles. It will add to the fire power of the armed forces,” said Antony.

While the ”Prithvi II” was test-fired from the Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Chandipur, Orissa from a mobile launcher early this morning, the ‘Dhanush’ was launched from the INS-Subhadra in the Bay of Bengal.

The Prithvi is a tactical surface-to-surface, short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) under the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP), which was started in 1983 with the aim of achieving self sufficiency in the development and production of a wide range of ballistic missiles and surface to air missiles, besides other weapons.

The Prithvi is the first missile to be developed under the IGMDP.

The Prithvi II has a range of 250 kilometers and can carry a warhead weighing 500 kilograms.

The nuclear capable Dhanush is the naval version of the Prithvi, which can be launched from warships.

The Dhanush’s 350 kilometres range would add to the Indian Navy’s capability in targetting the enemy with greater precision. (ANI)

Despite IAEA findings, Iran sings its old nuke-for-peaceful-purposes tune

Tehran, Sep. 18 (ANI): Even as a secret IAEA report revealed that Iran is capable of making a nuclear bomb and is developing a missile system to carry an atomic warhead, Iranian officials have reiterated claims that the Islamic nation’s nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes.

Fox News quoted Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, as saying that Iran is sincere in wanting to negotiate with the West.

He added that Western countries should “read between the lines” about Iran’s intentions.

Although the prospects of finding anything between the lines were almost nil after the surfacing of the IAEA report, but Soltanieh insisted that discussions with the West would be a “real, new window of opportunity.”

The secret U.N. watchdog report, titled “Possible Military Dimension of Iran’s Nuclear Program,” concludes:

*Iran worked on developing a chamber inside a ballistic missile capable of housing a warhead payload “that is quite likely to be nuclear.”

*Iran engaged in “probable testing” of explosives commonly used to detonate a nuclear warhead – a method known as a “full-scale hemispherical explosively driven shock system.”

*Iran worked on developing a system “for initiating a hemispherical high explosive charge” of the kind used to help spark a nuclear blast.

“Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable implosion nuclear device (an atomic bomb) based on HEU (highly enriched uranium) as the fission fuel,” The agency assessed.

On October 1, Iran is scheduled to meet with the U.S. and five other world powers seeking curbs on its atomic activities for the first time in more than a year.

However, Tehran says it is not prepared to discuss its nuclear activities. (ANI)

Radical insiders, not Taliban real threat to Pak nukes: Experts

Islamabad, May 16 (ANI): There has been a persistent tension in the international community regarding the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and fears about it falling into the hands of the Taliban and other extremists has kept the world on tenterhooks.

If concerns of experts are anything to go by, the real danger to Pakistan’s nuclear establishments does not comes from extremists but from radical insiders within the government.

Head of the Physics Department at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad Prof. Pervez Hoodbhoy believes that the radicals among the educated,potential insiders, are in a more realistic position to abscond with nuclear material .

They are far more threatening than the extremists as they also know how to use the weapons, the Christian Science Monitor reports.

“The threat comes not from the ‘mountain barbarians’, but from Al Qaeda, together with their Islamist allies within the Pakistani state and society. These are urban people, engineers, technicians, people in fairly high offices,” Prof. Hoodbhoy said.

The United States has spent over 100 million dollars to help Pakistan beef up its nuclear security, but question still looms large over how safe these establishments are.

Former head of nuclear intelligence at the US Department of Energy, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen said there was not much transparency over how and where such a huge sum was spent.

“There’s not a lot of transparency into it, and going into it I think the US felt like that was acceptable,” Larssen said.

Larssen also believes that the real threat was from the insiders rather than outsiders snatching a usable warhead.

“My big concern is the insider threat combined with outsiders,” he said. (ANI)

Radical insiders, not Taliban real threat to Pak nukes: Experts

Islamabad, May 16 (ANI): There has been a persistent tension in the international community regarding the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, and fears about it falling into the hands of the Taliban and other extremists has kept the world on tenterhooks.

If concerns of experts are anything to go by, the real danger to Pakistan’s nuclear establishments does not comes from extremists but from radical insiders within the government.

Head of the Physics Department at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad Prof. Pervez Hoodbhoy believes that the radicals among the educated,potential insiders, are in a more realistic position to abscond with nuclear material .

They are far more threatening than the extremists as they also know how to use the weapons, the Christian Science Monitor reports.

“The threat comes not from the ‘mountain barbarians’, but from Al Qaeda, together with their Islamist allies within the Pakistani state and society. These are urban people, engineers, technicians, people in fairly high offices,” Prof. Hoodbhoy said.

The United States has spent over 100 million dollars to help Pakistan beef up its nuclear security, but question still looms large over how safe these establishments are.

Former head of nuclear intelligence at the US Department of Energy, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen said there was not much transparency over how and where such a huge sum was spent.

“There’s not a lot of transparency into it, and going into it I think the US felt like that was acceptable,” Larssen said.

Larssen also believes that the real threat was from the insiders rather than outsiders snatching a usable warhead.

“My big concern is the insider threat combined with outsiders,” he said. (ANI)

North Korea may conduct another nuclear test: Analysts

Washington, May 1 (ANI): North Korea may fulfill a vow to conduct another nuclear test, analysts say.

According to them, Pyongyang is elevating the nuclear threat level to new extremes.

That’s the impression analysts are getting from the North’s latest and probably most sensational demand, that the United Nations Security Council issue an apology for having condemned its test-firing of a long-range Taepodong-2 missile on April 5, reports the Christian Science Monitor.

Most analysts say North Korea is serious about carrying out its threat to “defend its supreme interests,” as a North Korean spokesman put it, with “measures that will include nuclear tests and test-firings of intercontinental ballistic missiles.”

The real question is how soon North Korea will be able to test another warhead – and how long the North is prepared to wait to see if the United States shows serious signs of yielding to direct dialogue outside the format of six-party talks.

“I think it’s an actual threat,” CSM quoted Paik Sung-joo, the director of the Center for Strategy and Security at the Korean Institute for Defense Analyses, as saying.

North Korea conducted its only underground nuclear test in October 2006, but the device was far smaller than any tested by the eight full-fledged nuclear powers – an elite grouping among which the North would like recognition as a member.

The timing of North Korea’s next test appears to rest on two major considerations – the North’s own succession crisis and evolving US policy. (ANI)

Nuclear capable ‘Prithvi-II’ test fired successfully

Chandipur, Apr 15 (ANI): India on Wednesday successfully test fired the indigenous surface-to-surface ballistic missile, ‘Prithvi-II’, from the Integrated Test Range (ITR) here, 15 km from Balasore.

Prithvi-II, a version of nuclear-capable, has a range of 350 km.

The missile was launched from a mobile launcher at around 10:20 a.m. as part of a user trial by the army, defence sources said.

The entire trajectory of the trial was tracked down by a battery of sophisticated radars and electro-optic telemetry stations positioned in different locations for post-launch analysis, they said.

A naval ship had been anchored near the impact point in the Bay of Bengal and a Long-Range Tracking Radar (LRTR) as well as a Multi-Function Tracking Radar (MFTR) had been deployed to track the missile’s trajectory.

Prithvi II is a short-range, road-mobile, liquid-propellant ballistic missile. Similar to the Prithvi I in many ways, Prithvi II trades a smaller warhead for a longer range.

From 2002 on, Prithvi II is used by the Indian Army with the overarching logistical control and support retained by the Indian Air Force (IAF).

It was first test-fired on January 27, 1996 and the development stages were completed in 2004. (ANI)

Iran inaugurates new nuclear fuel facility

ran’s president has inaugurated a new facility producing uranium fuel for a planned heavy-water nuclear reactor. The West fears the reactor could eventually be used for producing a nuclear weapon.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has announced the plant’s opening during a ceremony in the central city of Isfahan. The plant will produce pellets of uranium oxide to fuel the heavy-water research reactor, which is scheduled to be completed in 2009 or 2010.

Iran denies any intention to build a nuclear weapon. The US and its allies have expressed concerns Iran could reprocess spent fuel from the heavy-water reactor into plutonium for building a warhead.

The process is distinct from uranium enrichment, which produces fuel for a light-water reactor. Highly enriched uranium can be used to build a warhead as well. Iran’s enrichment program presents more immediate concerns to the West than the hard-water reactor, because it is far more advanced.

The announcement comes a day after the United States announced it would participate directly in group talks with Iran over its nuclear program, another significant shift from President George W Bush’s policy toward a nation he labeled part of an axis of evil.

Russia test-fires intercontinental missile

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russia successfully test-fired a Topol intercontinental ballistic missile on Friday as part of checks needed to extend its service life for up to 22 years, Russian media reported.

The Topol was fired from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, nestled among the forests of northern Russia, and successfully hit the test site on Russia’s Pacific peninsula of Kamchatka, 6,000 km (3,700 miles) to the east.

“This launch confirmed the time extension for the Topol group of missiles for up to 22 years,” Itar-Tass news agency quoted Colonel Alexander Vovk of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces as saying.

Test launches of new missiles have become routine in recent years, and the Kremlin says the financial crisis will not discourage it from spending as much money as needed on defense. The Topol, which entered service in 1985, was last test-fired last October.

Russia has extended the highly mobile Topol’s use way past the 10-year guaranteed operational life set by the manufacturer. It is designed to pierce anti-missile defense systems such as those that the United States has said it wants to build in Eastern Europe.

The RS-12M Topol, called the SS-25 Sickle by NATO, has a maximum range of 10,000 km (6,125 miles) and can carry one 550-kiloton warhead.

(Writing by Amie Ferris-Rotman, editing by Mark Trevelyan)

Russia to test launch ballistic missile

Moscow, April 10 (RIA Novosti) Russia will test launch later Friday a Topol intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk space centre in northern Russia, a spokesman for the Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) said.

The missile was in active service from 1987 until 2007, and deployed with the 54th Strategic Missile Division near the town of Teikovo, about 240 km northeast of Moscow.

‘The goal of the upcoming launch is to confirm the reliability of the technical characteristics (of Topol missiles) during an extended service period,’ Alexander Vovk said.

The RS-12M Topol, also referred to as SS-25, is a single-warhead intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) approximately the same size and shape as the US Minuteman ICBM. The first Topol missiles were put into service in 1985.

The missile has a maximum range of 10,000 km and can carry a 550-kiloton nuclear warhead.

Although the service life of the SS-25 was extended to 21 years after a series of successful test launches last year, the missile will be progressively retired over the next decade and be replaced by mobile Topol-M (SS-27 Stalin) missile systems.

Russia’s SMF has a total of 541 ICBMs, including 306 Topol missiles and 59 Topol-M missiles.

Japan extends sanctions on North Korea after missile

Japan will extend by a year economic sanctions against North Korea, including a ban on imports, and tighten oversight of fund transfers to its secretive neighbour after a rocket launch, the government said on Friday.

Pyongyang said it had put a satellite into orbit but Tokyo, Seoul and Washington consider last Sunday’s launch a thinly disguised test of a long-range missile designed to carry a warhead as far as Alaska.

The U.S. military has said no object entered orbit.

In a largely symbolic measure, Japan will extend existing sanctions for a year and require more money sent to the cash-strapped communist country to be reported to authorities.

Sanctions previously set for six months have been extended four times since they began in 2006, with Japan citing lack of progress in talks to denuclearise the North and to investigate Pyongyang’s past abduction of Japanese citizens.

“We have not seen a sincere response from North Korea on the issues of abductions, nuclear programmes and missiles,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura told a news conference.

“We decided that additional measures were also needed, taking into consideration the overall situation after the missile launch.”

Japan’s unpopular government is under pressure to take a tough stance against North Korea after its rocket soared over Japan during its 3,200 km flight.

Japan has called for a fresh, legally binding resolution by the U.N. Security Council to declare Pyongyang in violation of a previous resolution banning the firing of ballistic missiles.

But Russia and China, permanent veto-wielding council members, have opposed the move, unconvinced the rocket launch was a violation.

Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone told reporters he and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had agreed by telephone earlier on Friday to work together to seek a new Security Council resolution.

But U.N. diplomats said Washington has indicated it might be willing to accept a nonbinding statement rather than a resolution, which the Americans fear could take too long, if one can be agreed at all.

A nonbinding statement would likely be seen as diplomatic failure for Japan at home, where Prime Minister Taro Aso is struggling with low voter support ahead of an election this year.

Aso leaves on Friday for a summit of 16 Asian countries in Thailand, where diplomats say Japan will push for leaders to issue a statement about North Korea’s rocket launch.

Japan extends sanctions on N. Korea after rocket

Japan decided on Friday to extend economic sanctions on North Korea by a year, including a ban on imports, and to tighten oversight of fund transfers to its secretive communist neighbour in response to a rocket launch, the top government spokesman said.

Pyongyang said it had put a satellite into orbit but Tokyo, Seoul and Washington consider Sunday’s launch a thinly disguised test of a long-range missile designed to carry a warhead as far as Alaska. The U.S. military has said no object entered orbit.

Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone earlier said he and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had agreed in a telephone meeting to work together to seek a new U.N. Security Council resolution against North Korea.

North Korea making progress in rocket technology – Japan

North Korea’s “spectacular” rocket launch shows it has made progress in its missile capabilities, Japan said on Wednesday, as Tokyo urged a divided U.N. Security Council to deliver a strong rebuke to Pyongyang.

Analysts said Sunday’s launch was effectively a test of a ballistic missile designed to carry a warhead as far as the U.S. state of Alaska. North Korea insists it put a satellite into space, claims dismissed by the U.S. military and South Korea.

Referring to footage of the launch, broadcast by North Korean state television on Tuesday, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura said it was unclear if the rocket carried a satellite. It soared over Japan during its 3,200 km (2,000 mile) flight that ended in the Pacific Ocean.

“It was launched spectacularly,” Kawamura told a news conference. “We can say that the launch took place in a way that was more advanced than previous ones.”

In the only previous test flight of the Taepodong-2, in July 2006, the rocket blew apart 40 seconds after launch. The rocket is designed to fly an estimated 6,700 km (4,200 miles).

The United States, Japan and South Korea say the launch violated Security Council resolutions banning the firing of ballistic missiles by Pyongyang, imposed after a nuclear test in 2006 and other missile exercises.

Kawamura reiterated Tokyo’s demand for a strong response from the U.N. Security Council.

Diplomats have said China and Russia would probably accept a Security Council warning to Pyongyang urging it to comply with U.N. resolutions and return to six-party talks aimed at dismantling North Korea’s nuclear arms programme.

But they would be opposed to a binding resolution intended to punish Pyongyang. The United States and Japan would like a resolution that expands existing financial sanctions.

“There have been informal talks between the permanent members of the Security Council and Japan, but we hear that China’s stance is firm,” Kawamura said.

“Our government is continuing to work with the United States to negotiate, aiming for a new resolution.”

China and Russia, as permanent council members, have veto powers and have made clear they would stop new sanctions.

“STRONG STEPS”

North Korea warned the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday that it would take “strong steps” if the 15-nation body took any action.

“If the Security Council, they take any kind of steps whatever, we’ll consider this is (an) encroachment on our sovereignty and the next option will be ours,” deputy ambassador Pak Tok Hun told reporters in New York.

“Necessary and strong steps will … follow that.”

Beijing, the nearest North Korea has to a major ally and concerned about the stability of its unpredictable neighbour, has said any U.N. reaction must be “cautious and proportionate”.

Diplomats from the permanent council members and Japan had planned to meet on Tuesday, but the meeting was postponed and it was not clear when it would go ahead.

Analysts said the launch showed North Korea had increased the range of its missiles, although it might be years from building one that could threaten the United States.

“North Korea has made technological advances, regardless of the success or failure of the launch,” said Rim Chun-taek, a professor in aerospace engineering at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology in Seoul.

Japan seeks strong U.N. response on North Korea rocket

Japan called on Tuesday for a strong response from the U.N. Security Council to North Korea’s rocket launch, which analysts say was a test of a long-range ballistic missile, but Tokyo acknowledged divisions remained.

The five permanent members of the Security Council — the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia — plus Japan met at U.N. headquarters on Monday to explore a possible compromise on a response to the launch, but reached no agreement.

They scheduled another meeting for Tuesday.

“All countries are agreed that a clear and firm response is needed. But the content is still under deliberation. Agreement has not been reached, there are various opinions,” Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura told a news conference.

“The Japanese government continues to think it desirable for a new Security Council resolution to be passed. It is important for the Security Council to issue a strong and unified message,” Kawamura added. “Japan and the United States are acting together in discussions. This is a matter of course.”

Diplomats have said China and Russia probably would accept a Security Council warning to Pyongyang urging it to comply with U.N. resolutions and return to six-party talks aimed at dismantling North Korea’s nuclear arms programme. But they opposed a binding resolution intended to punish Pyongyang.

Analysts said Sunday’s launch of the rocket, which flew over Japan during its 3,200 km (2,000 mile) flight, effectively was a test of a ballistic missile designed to carry a warhead as far as the U.S. state of Alaska.

EMBOLDENED NORTH

The U.S. military and South Korea said no part of the Taepodong-2 rocket entered orbit, despite Pyongyang’s claim it carried a satellite now transmitting data and revolutionary music as it circled the Earth.

Nevertheless, analysts said the launch showed the impoverished North had greatly increased the range of its missiles even though it may be years away from building a missile to threaten the United States.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s defiance also grabbed global attention for his destitute state and bettered his hand in the often-employed negotiating strategy of using military threats to squeeze concessions from regional powers.

North Korea is likely to use the first successful launch of the Taepodong-2 to extract concessions for showing up at future six-party talks. Pyongyang also could seek to water down obligations it signed onto under previous negotiations.

“The core element in this situation is the six-party talks,” Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said at U.N. headquarters on Monday.

“The key thing is to make sure that we do not confine ourselves to an emotional knee-jerk reaction because what we do need is a common strategy and not losing sight of the goal — and this is the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.”

The nuclear negotiations have been stalled since December. They involve the two Koreas, the United States, Japan, China and Russia.

Washington would like a resolution that would expand existing financial restrictions on Pyongyang. But diplomats said it might have to settle for a nonbinding statement.

Russia and China have made clear they would veto any attempt at new sanctions. Beijing, the nearest North Korea has to a major ally, has said any reaction must be “cautious and proportionate.” Three other countries on the 15-member council support the Russian and Chinese view, diplomats said.

The United States, Japan and South Korea say the launch violated Security Council resolutions banning the firing of ballistic missiles by Pyongyang, imposed after a nuclear test and other missile exercises in 2006.

Despite doubts, North Korea says satellite in orbit

North Korea maintained on Tuesday a satellite launched this week was in orbit playing revolutionary communist songs, despite U.S. and South Korean officials saying no satellite reached space.

“Our satellite is transmitting the immortal revolutionary paeans ‘The Song of General Kim Il-sung’ and ‘The Song of General Kim Jong-il’ as well as measured information to the earth,” the North’s communist party newspaper said in a commentary carried on the official KCNA news agency.

Some foreign analysts say the North’s launch on Sunday of a rocket that soared over Japan during its 2,000-mile (3,200 km) flight before landing in the sea was effectively a test of a ballistic missile designed to carry a warhead as far as the U.S. state of Alaska.

The launch failed to demonstrate the staged missile technology necessary for a successful intercontinental ballistic missile flight, a top U.S. military official said on Monday.

Communist North Korea, whose propaganda has trumpeted the launch as a resounding success, also contends it sent a satellite into orbit in 1998 despite widespread reports the attempt was a failure.

Regardless of whether it could be considered at least partially a technical failure, analysts said the Sunday launch showed the impoverished North had greatly increased the range of its missiles, even if it is still years away from building a missile threatening the United States.

The defiant launch also helped leader Kim Jong-il at home by grabbing global attention for his destitute state and bettered his hand in its often-employed negotiating strategy of using military threats to squeeze concessions out of regional powers, analysts said.

Focus on N.Korea nuclear talks after launch – Russia

Russia called on other leading powers on Monday to stay focused on nuclear talks with North Korea as Washington pushed for a strong response from a divided U.N. Security Council to Pyongyang’s rocket launch.

Analysts said Sunday’s launch of the rocket, which soared over Japan during its 2,000-mile (3,200 km) flight, effectively was a test of a ballistic missile designed to carry a warhead as far as the U.S. state of Alaska.

The U.S. military and South Korea said no part of the Taepodong-2 rocket entered orbit, despite Pyongyang’s claim it carried a satellite now transmitting data and revolutionary music as it circled the Earth.

Analysts said an emboldened North Korea would use the first successful launch of the Taepodong-2 to extract concessions for showing up at future six-party talks on ending its nuclear program. It also could seek to water down obligations it signed onto under previous negotiations.

The five permanent members of the Security Council — the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia — plus Japan met at U.N. headquarters to explore a possible compromise on a response to the launch. They reached no agreement and scheduled another meeting for Tuesday, envoys said.

“We have no convergence of view at this stage,” said Japanese Ambassador Yukio Takasu.

“It’s a stalemate,” said another diplomat close to the negotiations. “It’s basically a fight over the form — whether to warn or whether to punish.”

The Security Council had held an emergency session on Sunday but the 15 members agreed only to further discussions.

“The core element in this situation is the six-party talks,” Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said.

“The key thing is to make sure that we do not confine ourselves to an emotional knee-jerk reaction because what we do need is a common strategy and not losing sight of the goal — and this is the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.”

The long-running talks among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States have been stalled since December.

As regional powers weighed the extent of the new security threat, South Korean and Japanese financial markets shrugged off the rocket launch by the reclusive communist state.

‘STRONG LANGUAGE’

Diplomats said China and Russia probably would accept a Security Council warning to Pyongyang urging it to comply with U.N. resolutions and return to the six-party talks but they opposed a binding resolution intended to punish North Korea.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the council had to be the starting point. “We know that working out the language is not easily done overnight,” she said, “but we remain convinced that coming out with a strong position in the United Nations is the first and important step that we intend to take.”

“North Korea has to know that any efforts to obtain the objectives it set forth as desiring in the six-party talks are put at jeopardy,” Clinton told reporters.

Washington would like a resolution that would expand existing financial restrictions on Pyongyang. But diplomats said it might have to settle for a nonbinding statement.

Russia and China have made clear they would veto any attempt at new sanctions. Beijing, the nearest North Korea has to a major ally, has said any reaction must be “cautious and proportionate.” Three other countries on the council support the Russian and Chinese view, diplomats said.

The United States, Japan and South Korea say the launch violated Security Council resolutions banning the firing of ballistic missiles by Pyongyang, imposed after a nuclear test and other missile exercises in 2006.

The U.S. military could need days to analyze the launch but a top official said it had failed to demonstrate the technology for a successful intercontinental ballistic missile flight.

“The technology they were seeking … was the ability to stage, in other words, transition from one stage of boost to the next. They failed,” Marine Corps General James Cartwright, vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Pentagon press briefing.

Jane’s Defence Weekly also described the launch as a failure but said the mission could provide valuable data for Pyongyang’s satellite and ballistic missile programs.

“With this capability, North Korea is equipped with the infrastructure to play the nuclear game and raise the stakes in the six-way talks,” said Kim Tae-woo, a nuclear and weapons expert at the Korea Institute for Defence Analysis.

“As a result, more will have to be given to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear program.”

BOOST FOR KIM

Chosun Ilbo, South Korea’s biggest daily, quoted government sources as saying the rocket flew 2,000 miles, which would put the U.S. territory of Guam nearly in reach. The newspaper said the distance was double the range of an earlier version, the Taepodong-1, fired over Japan in 1998.

In the only previous test flight of the Taepodong-2, in July 2006, the rocket blew apart 40 seconds after launch. The rocket is designed to fly an estimated 4,200 miles (6,700 km).

In Japan, the launch has sparked calls to consider a pre-emptive strike capability but such a plan could undermine regional stability and attract only lukewarm voter support.

South Koreans, accustomed to unpredictable behavior by their far poorer neighbor, were largely unfazed. But in a poll in the Yomiuri newspaper, 88 percent of Japanese said they were uneasy about North Korea’s missile development.

Analysts said the launch would bolster the authority of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il after a suspected stroke in August raised doubts about his grip on power in a country that has a “military first” doctrine.

For Washington, a successful satellite launch would have put half the continental United States in North Korean rocket range, arms control experts said.

North Korea is believed to have enough fissile material for several nuclear bombs. But many experts believe it lacks the technology to miniaturize a nuclear device for a warhead.

U.N. fails to agree response to North Korea rocket launch

The United Nations failed to agree on a response to North Korea’s long-range rocket launch despite pressure from Washington and its allies for action, while regional powers weighed the extent of the new security threat.

Analysts said Sunday’s launch of the rocket, which flew over Japan before splashing down in the Pacific Ocean, was effectively a test of a ballistic missile designed to carry a warhead as far as the U.S. state of Alaska.

South Korean and Japanese financial markets shrugged off the news on Monday. Seoul’s main share index was up more than 2 percent while the won currency was stronger against the dollar as investors cheered Wall Street’s gains last week.

Shares in Japan also traded higher, with the Nikkei index up over 2 percent by late morning.

Japan had called for the emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on Sunday. But the 15 members agreed only to discuss the matter further, diplomats said.

The United States, Japan and South Korea say the launch violated Security Council resolutions banning the firing of ballistic missiles by Pyongyang, imposed after a nuclear test and other missile exercises in 2006.

Council diplomats said China, the nearest North Korea has to a major ally, and Russia were not convinced the launch of what North Korea said was a satellite was a violation of U.N. rules. Three other countries supported this view.

“It’s 10 against five,” one diplomat told Reuters.

The U.S. military and South Korea said no part of the Taepodong-2 rocket entered orbit.

WRINGING CONCESSIONS

North Korea for years has tried to drive a wedge between global powers that have engaged it in security and disarmament talks. Analysts say it thrives on brinkmanship and uses its military threat to wring concessions.

U.S. analysts expect an emboldened North Korea to try to now exact concessions for showing up at any future round of six-party talks on ending its nuclear programme and to seek to water down obligations it signed onto under previous negotiations.

The launch could also have implications for security in North Asia, which accounts for one-sixth of the global economy.

A leading South Korean daily, the JoongAng Ilbo, said Seoul needed to review how it organised its military, which has long focused on a possible conventional war with North Korea.

“North Korea’s rocket launch has shifted the security landscape on the Korean peninsula because we must accept the reality that it is capable of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles,” the JoongAng Ilbo said in an editorial.

Ordinary South Koreans, used to the unpredictable behaviour of their impoverished neighbour, were largely unfazed by the launch. But 88 percent of Japanese respondents to a poll published in the Yomiuri daily newspaper said they were uneasy about North Korea’s missile development.

“There should be active public debate as to whether we should have the means to pre-emptively destroy North Korea’s missile facilities,” Japan’s conservative Sankei Shimbun said in an editorial.

Analysts said the rocket launch would bolster the authority of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il after a suspected stroke in August raised doubts about his grip on power in a country that has a “military first” doctrine.

The U.S. military said stage one of the missile fell into the Sea of Japan and the other stages, along with the payload, landed in the Pacific Ocean. It was unclear how far the rocket flew.

In the only previous test flight of the Taepodong-2, in July 2006, the rocket blew apart 40 seconds after launch. The rocket is designed to fly an estimated 6,700 km (4,200 miles).

For Washington, a successful satellite launch would have put half the continental United States in North Korean rocket range, holding dozens of cities hostage, arms control experts said.

North Korea is believed to have enough fissile material for several nuclear bombs. But many proliferation experts believe the North does not have the technology to miniaturise a nuclear device for a warhead.

A THREAT TO NATIONS “NEAR AND FAR” – OBAMA

U.S. President Barack Obama said North Korea’s move was intended as a threat to countries “near and far” and that Pyongyang must be forced to change.

China and Russia called on all sides for restraint. Both had made clear before the launch that they would use their veto power to block any resolution imposing new sanctions on Pyongyang.

U.N. Security Council members “agreed to continue consultations on the appropriate reaction by the council … given the urgency of the matter”, Mexican U.N. Ambassador Claude Heller, who holds the body’s rotating presidency, told reporters.

U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice and Japanese Ambassador Yukio Takasu both called for a clear and firm response and said they wanted to see a fresh resolution. Chinese Ambassador Zhang Yesui said any reaction must be “cautious and proportionate”.

Washington and Tokyo want a resolution demanding stricter enforcement, and possibly expansion, of an existing arms embargo and financial sanctions.

North Korea spent about $300 million for the launch, South Korea’s biggest daily, the Chosun Ilbo, quoted a presidential Blue House official as saying. It said this would have been enough to buy rice to overcome its chronic food shortages.

N.Korea launches rocket, provokes global outcry

North Korea fired a long-range rocket on Sunday, provoking international outrage and prompting the U.N. Security Council to call an emergency meeting.

The reclusive communist state said a satellite was launched into orbit and circled the earth transmitting revolutionary songs. But both the U.S. military and South Korea said it had failed to enter orbit.

Analysts say the launch was effectively a test of a ballistic missile designed to carry a warhead potentially as far as Alaska.

It was the first big challenge for U.S. President Barack Obama in dealing with the North, whose efforts to build a nuclear arsenal have long plagued ties with Washington.

“With this provocative act, North Korea has ignored its international obligations, rejected unequivocal calls for restraint, and further isolated itself from the community of nations,” Obama said, speaking on a European tour.

Addressing a crowd in Prague, Obama committed himself to reducing the U.S. nuclear arsenal and said Washington would seek to engage all nuclear weapons states in arms reduction efforts.

Obama remained committed to talks to “denuclearise” North Korea, the White House said.

South Korea branded the launch of the rocket a “reckless” act, Japan said it was “extremely regrettable” and the European Union strongly condemned Pyongyang’s step. NATO condemned it as “highly provocative”.

“This is a regime that has placed itself outside international law,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said.

“There is only one response possible: the union of the international community must punish a regime that doesn’t respect any international rules.”

China, the nearest the North has to a major ally, and Russia called on all sides for calm and restraint.

The U.N. Security Council will hold consultations on the launch at 3 p.m. EDT/1900 GMT on Sunday. U.N. diplomats said no country was considering imposing new sanctions but a resolution on stricter enforcement of earlier measures could be discussed.

The United States, Japan and South Korea see the launch as a violation of a Security Council resolution passed in 2006 after Pyongyang’s nuclear test and other missile tests. That resolution, number 1718, demands North Korea “suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile programme”.

Both Russia and China have made clear they would block new sanctions by the Security Council, where they have veto power.

Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi called officials in the United States, Russia, Japan and South Korea to discuss the launch, the Foreign Ministry said.

“All sides ought to look at the big picture (and) avoid taking actions which may exacerbate the situation further,” a Chinese statement said.

The North Korean launch was unsuccessful but that did not change the response the United States is seeking at the United Nations, a U.S. official said.

“NEGOTIATING HAND STRENGTHENED”

Washington, Seoul and Tokyo had said before the launch that in reality it would be a test of the Taepodong-2 missile, which is designed to fly an estimated 6,700 km.

The U.S. Northern Command said stage one of the missile fell into the Sea of Japan and the remaining stages along with the payload landed in the Pacific Ocean. No debris fell on Japan.

The command assessed the launch vehicle was not a threat to North America or Hawaii and took no action in response.

South Korea earlier said the rocket appeared to be carrying a satellite but Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee later told parliament that it failed to orbit, Kyodo news agency reported.

Japan said it stopped monitoring the rocket after it had passed 2,100 km east of Tokyo. In the only previous test flight of the Taepodong-2, in July 2006, the rocket blew apart 40 seconds after launch.

Analysts said the rocket launch may bolster North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s authority after a suspected stroke last August raised doubts about his grip on power.

It wins North Korea the attention it has sought as the new U.S. administration wrestles with recession and the war in Afghanistan, and it could strengthen Kim’s hand in using military threats to win concessions from global powers.

“North Korea is likely to judge that its negotiating position has been strengthened now that it has both the nuclear and missile cards,” said Shunji Hiraiwa of Shizuoka Prefectural University in Japan.

The U.S. arms control coordinator, Gary Samore, said the North Korean launch meant missile defence would stay a priority.

“The North Korean test illustrates the importance of continuing to develop missile defence in order to protect… both the country and our allies in Asia,” Samore told reporters.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the launch was not conducive to peace and stability and called on North Korea to return to six-country talks on ending its nuclear programmes.

Stephen Bosworth, U.S. special envoy for North Korea, said before the launch he hoped to bring Pyongyang back to the talks once the “dust” had settled.

While the talks among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States were central to efforts to get North Korea to give up its nuclear programme, Washington was ready for direct contact with Pyongyang, he said.

The talks stalled in December and Pyongyang has threatened to quit them if the United Nations imposes any punishment over the launch.

Park Jong-kyu, an economist at the Korea Institute of Finance in Seoul, said the impact on financial markets when they reopen on Monday would most likely be short-lived or negligible.