European trade unions are facing up to a difficult choice: acquiesce to austerity measures and infuriate members, or fight them with strikes and risk a market backlash that could make the economic situation worse.

At one extreme is Ireland, where unions have avoided widespread industrial action over existing cuts — some of the earliest and sharpest in Western Europe — in part because the resulting market reaction would hurt workers more.

Trade union congress leader Jack O’Connor told Reuters last week that he feared foreign investors would interpret serious strikes as a sign Ireland might not be able to push through cuts and meet debt obligations, leaving it unable to borrow.

“Even if you win (the strike campaign), you could end up losing,” he said — but he said the decision was costing him sleepless nights and would not rule out further strikes if the government pushed through new cuts.

At the other extreme is Greece — where the European Union and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are demanding harsh spending cuts — where unions say they will strike in June and push for Europe-wide action against austerity measures.

“We’ll be pushing until the end to prevent the worst,” GSEE union head Yannis Panagopoulos, promising maximum resistance to a bill that raises the retirement age and curtails early pensions.

Panagopoulos says he is already talking to other European unions and hopes they can work together to hold back a wave of austerity measures as governments pull back on stimulus spending and start to address deficits.

An increasing number of European countries are announcing austerity measures to placate nervous bond markets. Spain, Portugal, Britain, Italy, Holland and France all announced new steps in recent weeks.

EUROPE-WIDE ACTION UNLIKELY

Unions have tended to respond with open hostility, complaining the poor and public sector workers are being made to pay the cost of the mistakes of the rich.

Italian unions say they will strike in June, while Spanish unions have threatened action if labour laws are changed without their consent.

Europe’s unions will hold a scheduled quarterly meeting in Brussels on June 1. But with electorates in northern Europe in particular already angry over having to bail out Greece, few see any real prospect of a concerted campaign of solidarity.

“It’s hard to see this really bringing the masses onto the streets in Liverpool or Lubeck,” said David Lea, Western Europe analyst at Control Risks. “The Irish example is very instructive. There is a lot of soul-searching going on within unions and the emergence of the bond market as a political arbiter is weighing on their minds more than they might admit.”

The widespread market alarm — hitting not just Greek debt but also the euro — that followed protests in Athens that led to violence and the death of three in a burning bank is seen as a warning.

“The Irish unions have it right,” said Elizabeth Stephens, head of credit and political risk at London insurance broker Jardine Lloyd Thompson.

“My worry would be that the Greek unions may win in the short term and prompt an end to the measures but the crisis of confidence that would produce could lead to default. The economic damage would mean the unions would not stay powerful for long.”

A Greek march last week drew only half the crowd seen in the May 5 protests, while in France the government signalled it would push ahead with plans to raise the pension age after weak protests.

PUBLIC SUPPORT LIMITED

“The public support just isn’t there,” said Control Risks’ Lea. “The unions will need to take some action to avoid accusations of irrelevance but it will be limited.”

A Europe-wide day of protest — probably not explicitly tied to Greece — is possible, analysts say, but would likely only be observed by more leftist unionists with turnout perhaps strongest in Italy but weaker elsewhere.

After Greece, Italy is seen as probably the next most vulnerable country to labour unrest with unions already at loggerheads with Silvio Berlusconi’s government — although unions there tend to strike for hours rather than days, reducing both the impact and market alarm.

Spain’s unions are seen likely to protest but ultimately acquiesce to cuts, as are Portugal’s

“In Spain, the unions know that at the end of the day if they bring down the leftist government the right will get back in,” said Exclusive Analysis analyst Pepe Egger.

In Britain, trade union UNITE is locked in a row with British Airways but analysts say the labour movement will likely take a less aggressive line against austerity measures from a newly elected coalition government.

“The British Airways case is really a one-off,” said Control Risks’ Lea.”Again, It just comes down to public support.”

Even Greek union boss Panagopoulos concedes cultural differences across Europe make coordinated action hard.

“Scandinavians act differently and think southern Europeans act strangely, central Europeans also have a different way,” he said. “It is very difficult.”

(Additional reporting by Renee Maltezou)