Although dismissed by many as a sham to entrench five decades of military rule, Myanmar’s upcoming election is being taken seriously at home, with dozens of political parties queuing up to take part.

But what remains to be seen is whether any real force will emerge to challenge the iron-fisted rule of a military that seems determined to cling on to power.

The party seen as Myanmar’s only real hope for a democratic future was effectively disbanded as of Friday when Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) opted not to register for what it said were “unjust” polls — a move that angered many of its supporters.

A breakaway NLD faction announced just hours after the deadline that it would enter the election under a new political entity called the National Democratic Force (NDF) — assuming the army-appointed Election Commission agrees to allow it.

But if the NDF or any other pro-democracy parties emerge, their leaders will have big shoes to fill now the charismatic, long-detained Suu Kyi, the icon of Myanmar’s democracy struggle, has clearly stated her opposition to the long-awaited polls.

The NLD won the last election, in 1990, by a landslide but was denied the chance to rule by a junta that used unexplained constitutional technicalities to keep the NLD out of office.

Many experts and people on the ground believe the window of opportunity for an opposing force to win the support of Myanmar’s people and replicate the NLD’s 1990 feat is fast closing.

OPPOSING OPPOSITION?

The break-up of the NLD could lead to a fractious and divisive opposition, with those intending to challenge the military and its proxies more likely to face off with each other.

“We’ll have to wait and see how well the real, genuine pro-democracy parties can work together,” said Aung Naing Oo, a Harvard-educated Burmese academic based in Thailand.

“The problem is the NLD wasn’t strategically deconstructed. The hardliners and moderates who have been through thick and thin might undermine each other. Some may go underground and that’s a recipe for confrontation.”

The prospect of a clumsily-formed and bickering opposition plays right into the hands of the generals, who unlike 1990, appear to have hatched a clever plan to retain control of the country at all levels.

The armed forces drafted a constitution in 2008 and ensured it passed a referendum, granting its commander-in-chief more power than an elected president and allocating control of key ministries, like justice, defence and interior, to the military.

And it looks as if it will get its hands on the “civilian” side of the new democratic Myanmar too.

At least 20 ministers from the junta, including Prime Minister Thein Sein, resigned from the military last week to become civilian politicians, although as is typical with Myanmar, their parties remain a mystery.

A party known as the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) has attracted wide attention on state-controlled television, prompting accusations the junta has hijacked a social development organisation to use as its vehicle for parliamentary politics.

The USDA appears to be modelled on Indonesia’s powerful Golkar Party and claims to have 24 million members — about half of Myanmar’s population.

PARLIAMENTARY SIDESHOW

A total of 30 groups have applied to become political parties and more may join before the June 6 deadline for new parties to register for the election, a date for which has yet to be set.

Only four of 10 existing parties have applied to run, three, including the National Unity Party (NUP) — the runner-up to the NLD in 1990 — comprise former members of the Socialist Programme Party, the political arm of the military junta that seized power in a 1962 coup before its dissolution in 1998.

Regardless of who wins, most analysts believe parliamentary politics will be a sideshow given the military’s ministerial and budgetary powers and its allocation of 25 percent of the national assembly and a third of senate seats to serving generals.

“The generals don’t want a repeat of the 1990 election and its clear they won’t share power with anyone,” said Aung Zaw, editor of the Thailand-based Irrawaddy magazine.

“Any idea that this election can change the political landscape is wishful thinking. Members of parliament won’t have the power or numbers to go against these military dinosaurs.”

(Additional reporting by Aung Hla Tun in Naypyitaw; Editing by Alex Richardson)