Thai “red shirt” protest leaders prepared for a second day of talks on Monday with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and vowed to press the embattled premier to dissolve parliament within 15 days.

Analysts say the dialogue, which Abhisit agreed to on Sunday to defuse tension, is unlikely to go anywhere as neither side appears to be in a mood to compromise.

Here are possible outcomes:

- PROTESTERS STAY FOR WEEKS BUT FAIL TO FORCE ELECTIONS

The ability of the “red shirts”, who broadly back ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, to mobilise more than 150,000 people on March 14 has delivered a strong message of public discontent but will probably fail to topple the government.

The mainly rural movement is still attracting tens of thousands to the city’s old quarters near Abhisit’s office, and its leaders say they will stay as long as it takes.

But as time passes, financial and logistical constraints will become more prominent, as well as the challenge of keeping the crowd engaged. The leaders could temporarily call it off after a few weeks, claiming some sort of victory based on high turnout and the absence of violence.

Knowing time is his most useful weapon, Abhisit succeeds in dragging out the talks for as long as possible, listening attentively and making positive noises but ensuring he stops short of committing to any substantive deal.

Unlike in the past, the “red shirts” have avoided rhetoric such as a declaration of “a final battle”, which means they could stop without too much loss of credibility.

PROBABILITY: Most likely scenario and favourable for Thai financial assets in the short and medium term. Failure to oust the government prolongs an uneasy status quo, which markets have learned to live with. Still, deep political rifts remain unsolved and protesters could easily return in the weeks or months ahead.

MARKET IMPACT: If the protests drag on, bond yields could fall on expectations the Bank of Thailand would keep its benchmark rate at a record low of 1.25 percent on April 21. The bank has said it wants to normalise rates but that, to some extent, would depend on politics. Bond market investors have priced in the outside chance of rate rise at that meeting, although the consensus remains for a June tightening.

- VAGUE AGREEMENT REACHED, ENDING PROTEST; ABHISIT SURVIVES

Despite much heel-dragging and posturing in coming to the negotiation table, the two sides eventually reach a vague, mutually acceptable, face-saving agreement.

Abhisit has reached out to moderate “red shirts” in speeches while isolating Thaksin and hardcore leaders. A compromise such as the promise of elections within a comfortable timeframe could give protest leaders a way to end the expensive and energy-sapping rally and offer the government breathing space.

However, it also brings forward the medium-term risk of the Thaksin-allied Puea Thai Party winning the next election. If another pro-Thaksin party eventually returns to power, it could face protests of its own, a military coup or the kind of judicial intervention that ousted a pro-Thaksin government in 2008.

PROBABILITY: This is the second-most likely outcome and most favourable for markets. A promise of early polls, even in vague terms, means protesters may stay off the streets for some time.

MARKET IMPACT: While foreign investors are piling into Thailand’s stock market, foreign companies are less enthusiastic about direct investment because of longer-term risks and are forecast to cut investment pledges this year by 15 percent, the Board of Investment said this month.

- COALITION PARTNERS PULL OUT; ABHISIT’S GOVERNMENT FALLS

The orderly but frustrated protest becomes more heated, increasing tension and raising questions about the government’s stability. This could lead to deals being struck among Abhisit’s discontented coalition partners.

Some of these partners — swayed by money politics, a promise of more glamorous cabinet seats and stronger leverage ahead of the next elections — could break away when the opposition Puea Thai Party tables a no-confidence motion in the next two months.

A successful motion could put an ally of Thaksin in power.

PROBABILITY: This is an unlikely outcome, given that coalition members already control key cabinet seats and Puea Thai lacks a presentable candidate for the premiership. The benefits of sticking with Abhisit have so far outweighed internal feuding.

MARKET IMPACT: This outcome would be negative. A Puea Thai-led government would anger the military, urban elites and royalists, who wear the king’s traditional colour of yellow at protests, raising the risk of extra-constitutional intervention.

- VIOLENCE ERUPTS; ABHISIT CALLS EARLY POLLS

The protest has intensified in the last few days and mysterious bombs and grenade attacks have put Bangkok on edge. The threat of confrontation could lead to a misstep by security forces. Casualties blamed on the authorities would undermine Abhisit’s legitimacy and force him to dissolve parliament.

PROBABILITY: Highly unlikely given the government’s careful management of the protests and public relations thus far.

MARKET IMPACT: May prompt an exodus of investors fearful of heightened instability and the potential for more stalemate, unrest or even a military takeover in a power vacuum.

(Editing by Martin Petty & Jan Dahinten)