UPDATE 1-Japan aims to keep spending, bond caps in 2011/12

TOKYO, July 20 (Reuters) – Japan’s government said it would stick to caps on spending and new bond issuance in the next fiscal year, although meeting the targets is expected to be tough given rising social welfare costs.

Credit agencies have warned of possible downgrades of Japan’s debt rating as the ruling party’s loss in an upper house election jeopardised efforts to rein in the country’s huge public debt.

Japan will keep new debt issuance from exceeding the current year’s level of 44.3 trillion yen ($511 billion), Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku said after the government released a budget outline for fiscal 2011/12, starting next April.

The outline says the government will aim to cap general-account spending, which excludes debt servicing costs, at around 71 trillion yen in 2011/12 to rein in bulging debt.

Sengoku said the government hoped to formalise the guidelines by the end of July.

Based on the budget guidelines, government ministries will submit their spending requests by the end of August, and a draft annual budget is usually compiled by the end of the year.

Japan’s public debt — nearly twice the size of the $5 trillion economy — has long been financed domestically from the country’s massive pool of savings that mostly sits in the banking system and is recycled into JGBs.

But fears are growing that the ageing population will start drawing on that pool of savings, forcing Japan to rely on foreign investors to fund its debt and potentially creating market instability.

The spending and bond issuance caps were part of a fiscal framework the government agreed on last month to show investors it will take steps to improve public finances after Europe’s sovereign debt crisis pummelled financial markets.

But meeting them is easier said than done.

The government needs to come up with revenues to cover social welfare costs which, due to an ageing society, increases by roughly 1.3 trillion yen each year.

Some ruling party lawmakers are opposed to big cuts in spending in some areas, citing the damage it could do to the fragile economic recovery and the party’s popularity.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan has called on the need for fiscal reform but the big loss of his party in upper house elections earlier this month has reduced his clout in policymaking.

The ruling Democratic Party has a majority in the powerful lower house but will need the support of other parties in passing legislation through the upper house. That means Kan may need to compromise to advocates of big spending. (Additional reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

Merkel says solid finances help keep rates low

July 14 (Reuters) – Successful consolidation of public finances enables central banks to hold interest rates low for as long as possible, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a newspaper commentary published on Wednesday.

“Credible consolidation is an important prerequisite for self-sustaining growth…and enables central banks to keep interest rates low for as long as possible,” Merkel wrote in a contribution for German business daily Handelsblatt. (Reporting by Dave Graham and Paul Carrel)

Romania – Factors to Watch on June 29

June 29 (Reuters) – Here are news stories, press reports and events to watch which may affect Romanian financial markets on Tuesday.

FINMIN

Finance Minister Sebastian Vladescu and Interior Minister Vasile Blaga hold news conference on fighting tax evasion at 0900 GMT.

ECONMIN

Economy Minister Adriean Videanu is expected to attend a seminar of bourse listing of shares owned by the state starting at 0600 GMT.

ROMANIA LEU DEEPENS LOSSES AFTER TAX HIKE

Romania’s leu currency hit an all-time low against the euro on Monday EURRON=, as the government struggled to quell concerns over public finances following a court ruling that could undermine its deal with the IMF. It continued to slide in early trade on Tuesday.

[ID:nLDE65R0EM]

LEU

The recent leu losses do not show a tendency for destabilisation of the currency market, central bank adviser Adrian Vasilescu said.

He also said now there is a big question mark that will receive an answer on Wednesday, when the IMF board meets.

Ziarul Financiar, Page 1,3

Leu depreciation on Monday had a very important psychological component and for sure is reversible as the Romanian economy has not changed that strongly from one day to the other, Romania’s representative to the IMF Mihai Tanasescu said.

He also said that according to IMF calculations the balance exchange rate for the leu is 4.1 – 4.2 per euro.

Gandul, Page 2

ROMANIA SEEN HOLDING RATES AFTER VAT HIKE

Romania’s central bank is seen ending its rate easing cycle on Wednesday, holding rates at 6.25 percent, after a government plan to hike value added tax increased uncertainty about the economy and IMF loans.

[ID:nLDE65R16O]

WAGE CUTS

Parliament meets to rework an austerity package that the Constitutional Court overturned on Friday when it ruled planned pension cuts were illegal. Cuts in state wages, which the court did not object to but were included in the package, must now be re-discussed.

VAT HIKE

The government decision to hike the value added tax by 5 percentage points was published in Romania’s official monitor on Monday.

Ziarul Financiar, Page 3

NOTE- For a diary of forthcoming Romanian events, double

click [RO/DIARY], and a calendar of east European economic indicators, see [CONV/DIARY].

For other related news, double click on: ————————————————————— Romania Market Debt [RO-DBT] Romanian forex [RO-FRX] Romania Market Report [ROL/] Romanian money [RO-M] Emerging Market Debt [EMRG/DBT] Emerging forex [EMRG/FRX] All Emerging Markets news [EMRG] CEE indicators [CONV/DIARY] All East Europe News [EEU] E.Europe equities [.CEE] TOP NEWS — Emerging markets [TOP/EMRG] TOP NEWS — Convergence watch [TOP/EAST] Romanian indicators [RO/ECI] Main page of Reuters poll —————————————————————

Barclays to continue investing in Italy-report

June 17 (Reuters) – British bank Barclays (BARC.L) is not worried about Italy’s public finances and will continue to invest in the euro zone country, its CEO said in an interview with an Italian newspaper published on Thursday.

Financials

“We had strong growth in Italy in the last 10 years. We continue to consider it a strategic country in which to invest following our guidelines: in retail and wealth, and in corporate and investment banking,” John Varley told Il Sole 24 Ore.

He said Italy traditionally had a high level of debt but also a track record in addressing its finance problems.

“The high level of debt compared to GDP is not new, while the low level of household debt is particularly reassuring,” he told the newspaper. (Reporting by Danilo Masoni; Editing by David Holmes)

FOREX-Euro slips after chart failure, caution over Spain

TOKYO, June 17 (Reuters) – The euro slipped from its two-week highs versus the dollar on Thursday as its short-covering rally ran out of steam and as worries about Spain’s public finances and banking system stopped it overcoming key resistance.

After failing to break above $1.2350-55 twice in the past 48 hours, the euro EUR= is at risk of retreat to around $1.2175, a 38.2 percent retracement of its rebound from a four-year low below $1.19 set last week.

“Players think the euro’s rise led by short-covering has come to a near-term end,” said an FX trader at a major Japanese brokerage.

“We hear overseas investors with real money, such as pension funds, are picking up the euro,” the trader said. “But besides them, there are few aggressive buyers of the euro, leaving the single currency vulnerable.”

Traders said the euro was likely to see selling into rallies as tolerance for risk subsided on a revival in concerns about euro zone fiscal problems.

“Some people want to reduce risk positions on worries about Spain,” said Daisuke Karakama, market economist at Mizuho Corporate Bank.

But the euro’s fall has not been as sharp as in May when worries about the impact of Europe’s fiscal problems drove it down rapidly, and this indicated that although some shorts have been covered, the market is still short euro longer term, Karakama said.

“The euro would have been sold much more hysterically if it were a month ago,” he said.

It slipped 0.3 percent from late U.S. levels to $1.2268. It is more than half a percent below the two-week high of $1.2354 hit on Wednesday but still up about 3 percent from the four-year low of $1.1876.

The market will be watching a Spanish bond auction later in the day after the spread of Spanish government bond yields over benchmark Bunds soared to a euro lifetime high on Wednesday. [ID:nLDE65F23Y]

“In the past few sessions, rises in the credit spreads of euro zone countries have not led to euro selling as much as before. But unless conditions in Europe improve, correlation (between the euro and European bond spreads) will return,” said Junya Tanase, senior strategist at JPMorgan Chase Bank.

The European Union holds a summit on Thursday to discuss ways to strengthen budget discipline and economic policy coordination.

The EU and IMF on Wednesday denied a report they and the U.S. Treasury were drawing up a safety net for Spain. But worries about Spanish banks put pressure on yields and the market will be looking for the result of bank stress tests which the Spanish central bank said would be published soon. [ID:nLDE65F1X2] [ID:nLDE65F1AL]

The euro also fell against sterling, the yen and the Swiss franc. It shed 0.7 percent to 112.01 yen EURJPY=R as Japanese banks sold. That helped push the dollar down 0.5 percent to 91.30 yen JPY=.

The dollar index .DXY =USD was up 0.3 percent at 86.37, well above support near 85.85 which is the index’s May 28 low.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 eased from one-month highs of $0.8674. It was trading at $0.8593, down 0.4 percent, with some players looking to sell into rallies after it failed to hold gains above $0.8650.

The dollar was little changed on the day against the Swiss franc CHF= at 1.1307 francs ahead of a Swiss National Bank meeting.

The SNB is expected to keep interest rates low but may announce measures to drain excess money from the economy after flooding the market with francs since 2009 to keep the currency from appreciating too rapidly. [ID:nLDE65E2DB] (Additional reporting by Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar in Sydney and Rika Otsuka in Tokyo; Editing by Joseph Radford)

FOREX-Euro slips after chart failure, caution over Spain

TOKYO, June 17 (Reuters) – The euro slipped from its two-week highs versus the dollar on Thursday as its short-covering rally ran out of steam and as worries about Spain’s public finances and banking system stopped it overcoming key resistance.

After failing to break above $1.2350-55 twice in the past 48 hours, the euro EUR= is at risk of retreat to around $1.2175, a 38.2 percent retracement of its rebound from a four-year low below $1.19 set last week.

Traders said the rally now looked tired and the euro was likely to see selling into rallies as tolerance for risk subsided on a revival in concerns about euro zone fiscal problems.

“Some people want to reduce risk positions on worries about Spain,” said Daisuke Karakama, market economist at Mizuho Corporate Bank.

But the euro’s fall has not been as sharp as in May when worries about the impact of Europe’s fiscal problems drove it down rapidly, and this indicated that although some shorts have been covered, the market is still short euro longer term, Karakama said.

“The euro would have been sold much more hysterically if it were a month ago,” he said.

It slipped 0.3 percent from late U.S. levels to $1.2270. It is more than half a percent below the two-week high of $1.2354 hit on Wednesday but still up about 3 percent from the four-year low of $1.1876.

The market will be watching a Spanish bond auction later in the day after the spread of Spanish government bond yields over benchmark Bunds soared to a euro lifetime high on Wednesday. [ID:nLDE65F23Y]

“In the past few sessions, rises in the credit spreads of euro zone countries have not led to euro selling as much as before. But unless conditions in Europe improve, correlation (between the euro and European bond spreads) will return,” said Junya Tanase, senior strategist at JPMorgan Chase Bank.

The European Union holds a summit on Thursday to discuss ways to strengthen budget discipline and economic policy coordination.

The EU and IMF on Wednesday denied a report they and the U.S. Treasury were drawing up a safety net for Spain. But worries about Spanish banks put pressure on yields and the market will be looking for the result of bank stress tests which the Spanish central bank said would be published soon. [ID:nLDE65F1X2] [ID:nLDE65F1AL]

The euro also fell against sterling, the yen and the Swiss franc. It shed 0.7 percent to 112.00 yen EURJPY=R as Japanese banks sold. That helped push the dollar down 0.5 percent to 91.30 yen JPY=.

The dollar index .DXY =USD was up 0.3 percent at 86.32, well above support near 85.85 which is the index’s May 28 low.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 eased from one-month highs of $0.8674. It was trading at $0.8596, down 0.3 percent, with some players looking to sell into rallies after it failed to hold gains above $0.8650.

The dollar was marginally higher against the Swiss franc CHF= at 1.1303 francs ahead of a Swiss National Bank meeting.

The SNB is expected to keep interest rates low but may announce measures to drain excess money from the economy after flooding the market with francs since 2009 to keep the currency from appreciating too rapidly. [ID:nLDE65E2DB] (Additional reporting by Reuters FX analyst Krishna Kumar in Sydney; Editing by Joseph Radford)

Romania – Factors to Watch on June 16

June 16 (Reuters) – Here are news stories, press reports and events to watch which may affect Romanian financial markets on Wednesday.

Energy

GOVERNEMNT MEETING

The centrist coalition government holds weekly government meeting at 0600 GMT with no major items on the preliminary agenda.

FINANCIAL SEMINAR

Central bank governor Mugur Isarescu is expected to attend a seminar about small and medium sized enterprises.

Central bank chief economist Valentin Lazea and Isarescu’s adviser Lucian Croitoru are also expected to attend.

CURRENT ACCOUNT

The central bank is expected to release 4-month current account data.

ROMANIAN GOVT SURVIVES AUSTERITY CONFIDENCE VOTE

Romania’s centrist coalition government survived a no-confidence vote in parliament on Tuesday over planned drastic spending cuts, a key step towards securing international aid for its recession-hit economy.

[ID:nLDE65E06I]

ROMANIA’S IMF DEAL STILL AT RISK AFTER VOTE

Romania’s vital IMF deal could yet be derailed by legal challenges and investors will still worry about public finances, even after the coalition government survived a no-confidence vote on Tuesday.

[ID:nLDE65E29Q]

BUDGET REVISION

A budget revision tu cut spending could take place in the next two or three weeks, Finance Minister Sebastian Vladescu said.

Gandul, page 5

FITCH GDP FCAST

Romania’s economy will drop by 1 percent in 2010 and no significant improvement of the country’s rating is expected in the next period, Richard Hunter, Fitch Group Managing Director for European and Asian Corporates was paraphrased as saying.

Ziarul Financiar, Page 2

CARS

Car registrations dropped 49 percent on the year in January-May in Romania, to about 26,300 units.

Ziarul Financiar, Page 11

GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLE

A government reshuffle could take place in about two weeks, a minister who did not want to be named told daily Gandul.

Gandul, Page 1

*The number of ministries in the government could be reduced to 9 or 10, sources said. Also, at Wednesday’s government meeting the ministers are expected to come up with proposals to reduce the number of deputy ministers.

Evenimentul Zilei, Page 2

WIND TURBINES FACTORY

Swiss company Windex plans to build a 25-million-euro wind turbine factory in the south-eastern Constanta county in two months.

Romania Libera, Page 3

NOTE- For a diary of forthcoming Romanian events, double

click [RO/DIARY], and a calendar of east European economic indicators, see [CONV/DIARY].

For other related news, double click on: ————————————————————— Romania Market Debt [RO-DBT] Romanian forex [RO-FRX] Romania Market Report [ROL/] Romanian money [RO-M] Emerging Market Debt [EMRG/DBT] Emerging forex [EMRG/FRX] All Emerging Markets news [EMRG] CEE indicators [CONV/DIARY] All East Europe News [EEU] E.Europe equities [.CEE] TOP NEWS — Emerging markets [TOP/EMRG] TOP NEWS — Convergence watch [TOP/EAST] Romanian indicators [RO/ECI] Main page of Reuters poll —————————————————————

EU leaders try to convince markets over euro crisis

(Reuters) – European Union leaders will make a new attempt this week to convince financial markets they can contain a debt crisis by agreeing how to tighten economic policy coordination and strengthen budget discipline.

The 27 EU member states and the executive European Commission will also set out plans for boosting economic growth and creating jobs at a summit on Thursday, three days after the leaders of Germany and France discuss strategy in Berlin.

A show of EU unity would help persuade markets the bloc has a common response to the worst crisis to hit the 16-country euro zone since the single currency was created 11 years ago and can prevent Greece’s debt problems spreading to other countries.

“Our priority is putting order into our public finances. We need fiscal consolidation and a new financial stability culture in Europe,” European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said after meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday.

“There is new awareness in Europe that rules have not been respected and must now be respected. Circumventing the rules … is putting at risk our collective economic future. We need to move in the opposite direction. We need to strengthen our rules and the way the EU runs its economy.”

Failure to show solidarity could increase the nervousness on markets that has helped drive down the euro and shares globally, and increased worries that countries such as Spain and Portugal could follow Greece into debt payment trouble.

Agreement on an aid package for Greece worth 110 billion euros ($132.4 billion) and a safety net for other euro zone countries worth 500 billion euros has gone some way to calming investors’ worries, at least in the short-term.

A task force under EU President Herman Van Rompuy has started work on reforms to reinforce budget rules and changes are planned to tighten financial regulations after the global economic crisis [ID:nLDE65A0O5]

CONCERNS OVER EU ABILITY TO ACT

But EU leaders have often appeared slow to react during the crisis and investors still have medium- and long-term concerns. They want to see how the rescue mechanisms will work in practice and whether the bloc is truly making a united stand.

“Policymakers in the EU have been rumbled. They’ve regularly fallen behind the curve and their announcements have often been full of smoke and mirrors,” said Philip Whyte of the Center for European Reform think tank.

“The markets don’t see how the southern European states are going to get out of the predicament they are in.”

The tone for the summit could be set by Monday’s talks between Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who lead Europe’s largest economies. Both want to protect the euro and improve Europe’s economic performance but disagree how to do so.

The German Finance Ministry has circulated a nine-point plan demanding stiffer sanctions against governments that flout European fiscal rules, including suspending repeat offenders’ EU voting rights, and an insolvency procedure for states.

Sarkozy has avoided the rigor sought by Berlin, and wants an “economic government” for the euro zone, with a dedicated secretariat to coordinate economic policy and focus on rebalancing the European economy and boosting growth.

Sarkozy and Merkel postponed a meeting last week at the last minute, a move widely seen as a sign of how far relations have deteriorated between countries long seen as the EU’s engine.

They went some way to assuaging concerns by issuing a letter to Barroso calling for faster financial reform and an EU-wide ban on some forms of trading in certain shares and state bonds, but doubts remain about their relationship.

“It’s hard to see that France and Germany will be singing from the same song sheet,” Whyte said.

PREVENTING “CONTAGION”

EU leaders want to address concerns that the debt crisis will spread to EU states that do not use the euro but have big deficits or debts such as Hungary and Britain.

They face hostility to important parts of the drive toward closer budget surveillance from British Prime Minister David Cameron, who is attending his first EU summit. IDnLDE64K1FW

British Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Sunday the country’s new coalition government remained firmly opposed to proposals that EU countries, including Britain, should give Brussels an early sight of their budget plans.

“That’s not a proposal that we can support,” Hague told the BBC. “The British budget must be presented to the British parliament and that is … the position we will maintain.”

Hague said he hoped the euro zone would survive current financial turmoil. “It’s in our national interest for those who do join the euro to be OK,” he said.

Austerity plans announced by some European governments also face the threat of labor unrest over fears that such moves will limit growth and cause job losses.

The EU leaders will try to address these concerns when agreeing on their Europe 2020 strategy for the next decade to cut unemployment, which was 9.7 percent in the EU in April, and double annual growth potential to 2 percent.

(Editing by Matthew Jones)

For more on the EU, double-click on

Italy sees budgets set at EU level from next year

(Reuters) – European Union countries will coordinate budget plans starting next year, rather than making their own national choices, Italy’s Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti said on Sunday.

“This year is the last in which national budgets will be made,” Tremonti told a conference, according to Italian news agencies. “The economic policies will all be done at the same time of the year, all together in the same way. There will no longer be a country that makes choices different from others.”

The European Union is trying to toughen up the rules of the Stability Pact governing public finances, and Tremonti’s comments lend Italy’s support to proposals for national budgets to be coordinated at the EU level before being approved by national parliament.

The economic crisis had set in motion the transfer of power from individual nations to European bodies, Tremonti said.

“Perhaps what’s not been seen yet, but is very clear is that a colossal devolution of powers of European nations is happening,” he said, according to the Ansa news agency.

(Writing by Deepa Babington; Editing by Louise Heavens)

Tackle local debt units, China tells banks, officials

June 13 (Reuters) – Chinese officials and banks must clean up their financing of local government-backed investment units under rules unveiled on Sunday, marking Beijing’s latest effort to tackle the mounting debt worries of these units.

Financials

The State Council, or central government cabinet, issued a directive warning that some of these quasi-independent financing vehicles, often used by local governments to fund infrastructure projects, were dangerously loaded with debt built up using implicit assurances to banks from local officials.

Chinese provinces, cities and towns have used the investment subsidiaries to circumvent restrictions on their own borrowing, and many of these units borrowed heavily in 2009 to fund an infrastructure spending spree.

The State Council said these investment platforms “have experienced some problems that demand urgent attention”, according to the central government’s website (www.gov.cn). The cabinet directive was dated Thursday.

“The main ones are that the scale of debt-driven financing of these investment vehicle companies has inflated rapidly, their operation is not sufficiently regulated; local governments have violated regulations and provided implicit (loan) guarantees and the risks from debt obligations have been constantly growing,” said the directive.

It also said some banks have shown “weak grasp of risks” and failed to police loans to these local investment units properly.

According to the China Banking Regulatory Commission, outstanding loans to local government financing vehicles were 7.4 trillion yuan ($1,084 billion) at the end of last year, a fifth of the country’s total stock of loans.

Some economists have called these debts a growing risk to Chinese public finances, with questions raised about the future returns on many of the projects launched as part of the stimulus programme to counter the financial crisis.

The State Council directive ordered banks to “strictly regulate credit management” for the investment vehicles, and it told local officials to avoid using government revenues, state-owned assets and other “direct or indirect” collateral for loans to these companies.

“The credit risks of investment vehicle companies must be internalised,” said the directive.

(Reporting by Chris Buckley; Editing by Paul Tait)

Japan to include debt issuance cap in fiscal plan

(Reuters) – Japan will pledge to cap new bond issuance next fiscal year at the record sum earmarked for this year, National Strategy Minister Satoshi Arai said, as the new government struggles to convince markets of its resolve to fix the country’s tattered finances.

Japan

Arai told reporters on Friday the government will finalize a long-term fiscal strategy framework by June 22, just days before a summit of G20 leaders in Toronto, as Tokyo aims to rein in a public debt nearly twice the size of Japan’s GDP.

New Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan is due to unveil this month a strategy consisting of both medium- and long-term targets as investors fret about sovereign credit risk.

The Nikkei newspaper reported on Friday that the fiscal framework will include a pledge to cap budget spending for three years and bring the primary balance — the net figure for government borrowing and lending — into the black by March 2021.

But Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said that the report was “clearly wrong” and that the government was still putting the finishing touches on its framework for fiscal reform.

“The National Strategy Bureau is at the center of government efforts on the fiscal framework and we are in the final stages of compiling the plan,” Noda told reporters after a cabinet meeting on Friday.

Rating agencies have warned they could cut Japan’s sovereign debt rating unless it produced a credible plan to rein in debt.

Japanese sovereign CDS are trading at their widest in 15 months near 100 basis points, with outstanding volume near record highs, as market players brace for problems in the years ahead.

“Ideally, the plan should be grounded in a broader economic policy framework including pro-growth structural reforms and clarity on the monetary policy objective,” said Andrew Colquhoun, director of Fitch’s Sovereigns Ratings Team.

“Our view is that Japan’s ratings will come under downwards pressure in the medium term unless the public finances get on a sustainable footing,” he told Reuters.

Arai, who is directly in charge of crafting the fiscal framework, said the government will aim to cap new bond issuance for next fiscal year at the 44.3 trillion yen ($484.6 billion) earmarked for this year, as part of the fiscal framework.

Japan has earmarked 53.5 trillion yen in spending for this fiscal year ending in March 2011. The government will pledge to cap budget spending to that amount for three years until March 2014, the Nikkei said.

With tax revenues unlikely to rise much after being hit by a weak economy, achieving such a target may be tough unless the ruling Democratic Party reconsiders some of its generous spending plans promised in its campaign pledge.

That is more so if Kan sticks to his pledge, made when he was finance minister, to cap new government bond issuance at 44.3 trillion yen next fiscal year.

In its new campaign pledge for the July upper house election, the Democrats will mention the need to keep new bond issuance at or below 44.3 trillion yen in the year to March 2012, the Asahi newspaper said on Friday.

The manifesto will also say the party will set up a bipartisan panel to discuss tax reforms, including the sales tax, the Asahi said.

Many analysts say Japan would have to consider raising the sales tax from the current 5 percent as a rapidly aging population pushes up social security costs.

Japan’s economy grew 1.2 percent in January-March from the previous quarter, the fastest growth in three quarters, on robust exports to fast-growing emerging Asian markets.

The government may raise its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year to above 2 percent and below 3 percent, from an earlier estimate of 1.4 percent, according to the Nikkei.

That may give Kan some momentum to move toward fiscal austerity, although time constraints mean no policy action is expected until after the upper house election in July.

Banking minister Shizuka Kamei, who heads a small party in the ruling coalition and has called for big fiscal spending, said on Friday he would leave the cabinet, which some analysts say may make it easier for Kan to pursue fiscal reforms.

Japan’s sovereign five-year credit default spread has widened to just below 100 basis points this week. It was indicated at 92-92 basis points on Friday, slightly down from 97-98 basis points on Thursday.

“The main factor that has caused a widening in Japan’s sovereign CDS spread is coming from elsewhere, not from Japan,” said a CDS trader at a brokerage in Tokyo, adding that overseas players were buying protection for government debt on jitters about Europe’s debt problems.

“At the same time, it is also true that the spread of Japan’s sovereign CDS looks tight compared to those of other countries, given Japan’s high ratio of public debt against GDP.”

(Additional reporting by Stanley White, Kaori Kaneko, Charlotte Cooper and Rika Otsuka; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

UPDATE 1-World Bank-Double-dip recession can’t be ruled out

WASHINGTON, June 9 (Reuters) – The World Bank on Wednesday said a double-dip recession could not be ruled out in some countries if investors lose faith in efforts in Europe and elsewhere to tackle rising debt levels.

The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects 2010 report said slower growth in developed economies would deprive developing countries of healthy markets for their goods and would cut into investment.

For the moment, worries that Greece’s fiscal woes could spread to other highly-indebted countries, such as Spain and Portugal, has not affected growth in developing countries, the World Bank said.

“If markets lose confidence in the credibility of efforts to put policy on a sustainable path, global growth could be significantly impaired and a double-dip recession could not be excluded,” the report said.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in testimony to lawmakers on Wednesday, said a double-dip recession in the United States could never entirely be ruled out. The Fed has forecast U.S. growth this year of 3 percent to 4 percent.

The World Bank called for “significant” fiscal consolidation in advanced economies, adding that simulations conducted by the bank showed that the quicker it happened, the better it would be for developing economies.

The bank also said industrialized countries should seize the opportunities offered by stronger growth in developing countries to boost economic activity.

Still, the report warned that a prolonged period of rising sovereign debt could make credit more expensive and curtail investment and growth in emerging markets.

It said current data suggests that through the end of March the global economic recovery remained robust in most countries, with the exception of Western European nations where it had stagnated.

Euro zone countries have committed to austerity measures to bring their public finances under control, and unveiled a $1 trillion plan to stop the crisis from spreading with the help of the International Monetary Fund.

“The acute phase of the crisis is over and we’re now going into a longer term challenge of returning fiscal policy in high-income countries back to a sustainable level,” said World Bank economist Andrew Burns.

“How successful we are in doing that is going to have an important impact in developing countries and in developed countries,” he added.

The World Bank forecast that developing economies would expand at between 5.7 percent and 6.2 percent each year from 2010 to 2012 — more than twice the growth rate of advanced economies. This is substantially higher than last year’s 1.7 percent.

But should the crisis in Europe worsen and spread, the World Bank said the pace of growth in developing countries would slow to 6.1 percent this year and 5.7 percent in 2011,

Advanced economies are projected to expand by between 2.1 and 2.3 percent in 2010 — not enough to undo the 3.3 percent contraction they experienced last year — followed by growth of between 1.9 and 2.4 percent in 2011.

Meanwhile, global growth is likely to expand by 3.3 percent in 2010 and 2011, rising somewhat after that to 3.5 percent in 2010, the bank said.

The World Bank said it was concerned that aid flows to the world’s poorest countries would fall sharply amid belt-tightening in donor nations. Burns said based on previous crises in developed countries aid flows are likely to fall by between 20 to 25 percent.

“That would clearly be a very serious situation for low income countries,” Burns said. “It is not our expectation that we will see that sharp a decline, but it is an indicator of the risk that is there.”

Aid can represent as much as 20 percent of government spending in some developing countries, he noted.

World Bank-Double-dip recession can’t be ruled out

WASHINGTON, June 9 (Reuters) – The World Bank on Wednesday said a double-dip recession could not be ruled out in some countries if investors lose faith in efforts in Europe and elsewhere to tackle rising debt levels.

The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects 2010 report said slower growth in developed economies would deprive developing countries of healthy markets for their goods and would cut into investment.

For the moment, worries that Greece’s fiscal woes could spread to other highly-indebted countries, such as Spain and Portugal, has not affected growth in developing countries, the World Bank said.

“If markets lose confidence in the credibility of efforts to put policy on a sustainable path, global growth could be significantly impaired and a double-dip recession could not be excluded,” the report said.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, in testimony to lawmakers on Wednesday, said a double-dip recession in the United States could never entirely be ruled out. The Fed has forecast U.S. growth this year of 3 percent to 4 percent.

The World Bank called for “significant” fiscal consolidation in advanced economies, adding that simulations conducted by the bank showed that the quicker it happened, the better it would be for developing economies.

The bank also said industrialized countries should seize the opportunities offered by stronger growth in developing countries to boost economic activity.

Still, the report warned that a prolonged period of rising sovereign debt could make credit more expensive and curtail investment and growth in emerging markets.

It said current data suggests that through the end of March the global economic recovery remained robust in most countries, with the exception of Western European nations where it had stagnated.

Euro zone countries have committed to austerity measures to bring their public finances under control, and unveiled a $1 trillion plan to stop the crisis from spreading with the help of the International Monetary Fund.

“The acute phase of the crisis is over and we’re now going into a longer term challenge of returning fiscal policy in high-income countries back to a sustainable level,” said World Bank economist Andrew Burns.

“How successful we are in doing that is going to have an important impact in developing countries and in developed countries,” he added.

The World Bank forecast that developing economies would expand at between 5.7 percent and 6.2 percent each year from 2010 to 2012 — more than twice the growth rate of advanced economies. This is substantially higher than last year’s 1.7 percent.

But should the crisis in Europe worsen and spread, the World Bank said the pace of growth in developing countries would slow to 6.1 percent this year and 5.7 percent in 2011,

Advanced economies are projected to expand by between 2.1 and 2.3 percent in 2010 — not enough to undo the 3.3 percent contraction they experienced last year — followed by growth of between 1.9 and 2.4 percent in 2011.

Meanwhile, global growth is likely to expand by 3.3 percent in 2010 and 2011, rising somewhat after that to 3.5 percent in 2010, the bank said.

The World Bank said it was concerned that aid flows to the world’s poorest countries would fall sharply amid belt-tightening in donor nations. Burns said based on previous crises in developed countries aid flows are likely to fall by between 20 to 25 percent.

“That would clearly be a very serious situation for low income countries,” Burns said. “It is not our expectation that we will see that sharp a decline, but it is an indicator of the risk that is there.”

Aid can represent as much as 20 percent of government spending in some developing countries, he noted.

Ratings agencies concerned about Hungary

(Reuters) – Warnings from Hungarian officials last week about a potential sovereign debt default raise questions about the country’s fiscal outlook and could be negative for its credit rating, rating agencies said on Monday.

Moody’s said comments made by officials in Hungary’s new center-right Fidesz government suggesting the country was close to a Greek-style economic meltdown were “inflammatory” and came at “a delicate time” for global markets.

“The statements are a credit negative because they bring renewed attention to Hungary’s high public and external debts, which, by threatening to drive up interest rates and push down the exchange rate, endanger Hungary’s economic recovery,” Moody’s analyst Dietmar Hornung said in Moody’s weekly credit outlook.

David Heslam, director of Fitch Ratings’ emerging Europe sovereigns, said the comments would not affect Hungary’s funding options but ultimately played into a “key ratings driver” — its fiscal path.

“We are concerned about the fiscal outlook post-elections… Given the high level of debt, there is little room for policy slippage,” he told Reuters.

Noting that Hungary still had a multilateral financing program with the International Monetary Fund that has yet to be drawn this year, Heslam said Fitch would wait to see further details of the government’s new fiscal measures before moving on its credit rating.

Moody’s Hornung said the new government displayed an “apparent willingness to adopt unorthodox measures to stimulate economic growth” which was also sparking concerns.

“In our view, these uncertainties threaten to further impair Hungary’s creditworthiness,” Hornung added.

Moody’s has Hungary’s Baa1-rated government bonds on negative outlook. Fitch has Hungary’s ratings at BBB with a negative outlook.

Standard & Poor’s, which has Hungary’s ratings at BBB- with a stable outlook, said in a statement:

“We will review the government’s report on public finances and the government’s action plan before we would comment further.”

(Reporting by Sebastian Tong and Carolyn Cohn; editing by )

UPDATE 1-Ratings agencies concerned about Hungary

LONDON, June 7 (Reuters) – Warnings from Hungarian officials last week about a potential sovereign debt default raise questions about the country’s fiscal outlook and could be negative for its credit rating, rating agencies said on Monday.

Moody’s said comments made by officials in Hungary’s new centre-right Fidesz government suggesting the country was close to a Greek-style economic meltdown were “inflammatory” and came at “a delicate time” for global markets. [ID:nLDE6550I7]

“The statements are a credit negative because they bring renewed attention to Hungary’s high public and external debts, which, by threatening to drive up interest rates and push down the exchange rate, endanger Hungary’s economic recovery,” Moody’s analyst Dietmar Hornung said in Moody’s weekly credit outlook.

David Heslam, director of Fitch Ratings’ emerging Europe sovereigns, said the comments would not affect Hungary’s funding options but ultimately played into a “key ratings driver” — its fiscal path.

“We are concerned about the fiscal outlook post-elections… Given the high level of debt, there is little room for policy slippage,” he told Reuters.

Noting that Hungary still had a multilateral financing programme with the International Monetary Fund that has yet to be drawn this year, Heslam said Fitch would wait to see further details of the government’s new fiscal measures before moving on its credit rating.

Moody’s Hornung said the new government displayed an “apparent willingness to adopt unorthodox measures to stimulate economic growth” which was also sparking concerns.

“In our view, these uncertainties threaten to further impair Hungary’s creditworthiness,” Hornung added.

Moody’s has Hungary’s Baa1-rated government bonds on negative outlook. Fitch has Hungary’s ratings at BBB with a negative outlook.

Standard & Poor’s, which has Hungary’s ratings at BBB- with a stable outlook, said in a statement:

“We will review the government’s report on public finances and the government’s action plan before we would comment further.” (Reporting by Sebastian Tong and Carolyn Cohn; editing by )

UPDATE 1-Spain’s assets hurt by macro concerns, euro debt

MADRID, June 1 (Reuters) – Spain’s blue-chip shares fell sharply on Tuesday and the country’s borrowing costs rose, as a sell-off sparked by concerns about euro zone finances and the fragility of the global economic recovery gathered pace.

By 0848 GMT, the IBEX .IBEX index of 35 leading shares was down 3.3 percent to 9,053.0,points, having finished May down 10 percent.

“The deterioration of Europe’s public finances is underlining the idea that the world recovery has definitively halted and the risk of a double dip recession is increasing,” a Madrid-based trader said.

“There is a great risk aversion and any slightly negative macro news serves as a pretext to sell.”

The 10-year Spanish/German government bond yield spread ES10YT=RR EU10YT=RR widened to 172 basis points (bps) — the widest since early May — from around 154 bps on Friday, before Fitch Ratings cut Spain’s debt rating by one notch to AA-plus with a stable outlook.

The cost of protecting government debt default in Spain rose to 245.5 bps, up from 218.8 bps on New York close on Friday, according to CDS monitor CMA DataVision. New York markets were closed on Monday.

Overnight, an official survey showed China’s factories had scaled back production last month, while PMI data on Tuesday showed the pace of recovery in Spain’s manufacturing sector was easing, setting back hopes for a quick recovery. [ID:nSLAVGE65I]

Spain, the eurozone’s fourth largest economy, narrowly passed a 15-billion-euro austerity package last week as it struggles to convince investors that it can avoid a Greek-style debt crisis.

Adding to market concerns, the European Central Bank said on Monday that eurozone banks face more potential writedowns. [ID:nLAG006303]

Bank stocks across Europe fell, with Spain’s major banks BBVA (BBVA.MC) down 2.9 percent and Santander (SAN.MC) down 2.5 percent.

Telefonica (TEF.MC), the heaviest weight Spanish stock, was down 2.22 percent.

The IBEX has lost 24 percent so far this, versus a 11.6 percent fall for the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index. (Additional reporting by Ian Chua in London; Editing by Louise Heavens)

Exclusive: EU debt crisis boosts chance of energy tax overhaul

(Reuters) – The greenest fuels would become the cheapest under plans for a pan-European energy tax which would also help governments tackle huge debts without raising taxes on workers, draft documents show.

Gulf Oil Spill

The European Union’s executive wants to overhaul Europe’s 240 billion euro ($294 billion) annual taxation of energy, which varies widely between countries and often creates paradoxical incentives that encourage the biggest polluters.

“Standard taxation rules discriminate against renewable energies,” said an EU briefing document seen by Reuters.

European countries have traditionally put up stiff resistance to interference from Brussels on tax matters.

But a window of opportunity has emerged for a tax overhaul because it could help governments such as Italy, Greece and Spain to cut deficits urgently and reduce public debts without raising unpopular income tax.

Trade unions are planning strikes and rallies across southern Europe this month to oppose deficit-cutting austerity plans as countries try to avoid suffering a debt crisis similar to the one facing Greece.

“The global financial and economic crisis has left deep strains on the public finances of most countries,” said the draft document. “This … should play an important role in offering member states a basis … to shift the tax burden away from labor or capital.”

Diplomats say the proposal’s chances of adoption are better now than ever before.

If approved by EU leaders, the new rules would be phased in between 2013 and 2018, laying down minimum rates of taxation for everything from coal, to heating oil to biodiesel.

Farmers might be granted exemptions, although discussions continue within the European Commission, which initiates EU law.

PROTECTION

Commission tax spokeswoman Emer Traynor said she could not comment on the draft document, but reiterated the philosophy behind the plans.

“The objective is not to raise taxes — it is to restructure them in a way that consumers can understand and manage,” she said. “Consumers would be able to reduce the amount of tax they pay by changing their behavior and being more energy efficient.”

Protections are being crafted in the policy for heavy industries, such as steel and chemicals, that face tough competition from their overseas rivals that enjoy lower costs because they can pollute for free.

Measures are also being drafted to help poor households, which usually pay a relatively high share of their income for heating.

The tax would have two components. The first is an energy tax based on fuels’ energy content rather than their volume as now. The second is a carbon tax, which is being discussed in the range of 4 to 30 euros per tonne of carbon dioxide.

Carbon taxation is already used by Denmark, Sweden and Ireland, and Britain, Germany and the Netherlands have various eco-taxes. But the idea met resistance from farmers, fishermen and haulers when French President Nicolas Sarkozy tried to push the idea through last year.

A diplomatic source said France supported the proposal, but Germany was expected to have problems with it.

EU sources say farmers might well win exemptions from the energy taxation, but they are less likely to avoid the carbon element as agriculture is such a key emitter. The EU’s various commissioners will debate the plan on June 23.

BIOFUELS

Over the next decade, the European Union plans to cut by a fifth its emissions of carbon dioxide, the gas most blamed for climate change. The main tool for doing that is its carbon market, the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which forces polluters to buy a permit for each tonne of carbon they emit.

But about half of the EU’s polluters have not been tackled by the scheme, such as transport, which creates 23 percent of all EU emissions, and households which are responsible for 10 percent.

A carbon tax could solve that imbalance and at the same time make a 4 percent contribution to the EU’s climate change goals, the draft says.

Those climate goals are undermined by a system which makes the lowest tax demands on the biggest source of pollution, coal, and puts the highest tax on one of the greenest, bioethanol.

Bioethanol is taxed at a rate of 17 euros per gigajoule, 50 percent higher than normal gasoline and more than twice as much as normal diesel, the draft shows.

But under the new scheme, biofuels — which in theory can absorb almost as much carbon when they are grown as is released when they are burned — would enjoy a significant tax cut.

(Reporting by Pete Harrison, editing by Timothy Heritage)

FACTBOX – Austerity measures around eurozone

REUTERS – Italy joined Europe’s austerity club late on Tuesday as its cabinet approved 24 billion euros of deficit-reducing cuts that could hit the popularity of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

Here are some details on austerity measures around the eurozone:

* ITALY:

– A late night cabinet meeting confirmed the overall 24 billion-euro deficit cut and measures such as the delay in retirement, the state salary freeze and cuts to the pay of high public sector earners.

– Regional and local governments will be pressed to contribute some 13 billion euros of spending cuts in 2011-2012, sources said, almost inevitably affecting schools and hospitals. Busy arteries such as Rome’s ring road may become toll roads.

– Though Italy kept its budget deficit down to 5.3 percent of GDP last year — well below the EU average — the budget aims to slash it to 2.7 percent by 2012.

* PORTUGAL:

– Prime Minister Jose Socrates and opposition leader Pedro Passos Coelho drew up steps to slash the budget deficit, including 5 percent pay cuts for senior public sector staff and politicians, and increases in VAT sales tax, income tax and profits tax ranging from one to 2.5 percent.

– The cabinet approved the programme on May 20. The government said it would cut the deficit to 7.3 percent of GDP in 2010 and 4.6 percent in 2011. In 2009 it hit 9.4 percent, prompting a sell-off of Portuguese assets by investors.

* FRANCE:

– French President Nicolas Sarkozy has said France will look to restore its public finances as the economic recovery takes root.

– In an effort to keep a lid on the budget deficit, France has said it will freeze all spending, bar pensions and interest payments, between 2011-2013 and cut state operating costs by 10 percent over the same period. Sarkozy has said this does not amount to an austerity plan.

* GREECE:

– Greece has approved a pension reform bill, after agreeing with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund a fresh set of austerity measures aimed at pulling the country out of a severe debt crisis that has shaken the euro zone.

– Under the EU-IMF deal, Greece plans to narrow its budget shortfall from 13.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2009 to 8.1 percent this year, 7.6 percent in 2011 and 2.6 percent in 2014.

– Austerity measures include a public sector pay freeze until 2014. Christmas, Easter and summer holiday bonuses, also known as 13th and 14th salaries, are abolished for civil servants earning above 3,000 euros a month and are capped at 1,000 euros for those earning less.

– Public sector allowances are cut by an additional 8 percent. These allowances, which account for a significant part of civil servants’ overall income, were cut by 12 percent under a round of austerity measures announced in March.

* TAX HIKES:

– The main VAT rate is increased by 2 percentage points to 23 percent. It had been raised to 21 percent from 19 percent in March.

– Excise taxes on fuel, cigarettes and alcohol are increased by a further 10 percent.

– The government expects to generate additional revenues through a one-off tax on highly profitable companies, as well as new gambling and gaming licences and more property taxes.

* PENSIONS:

– The government has said it will freeze pensions in 2010, 2011 and 2012.

– According to the pension bill, expected to be voted by parliament in June, the statutory retirement age for women will be raised by 5 years to 65 to match the retirement age for men.

* IRELAND:

* DEFICIT:

– The government’s budget for 2010 presented in December projected a deficit of 11.6 percent of gross domestic product. The median forecast of analysts polled by Reuters is for Ireland’s budget deficit to come in at 11.5 percent.

* AUSTERITY:

– Fiscal reform so far: 3 austerity budgets presented in little over a year, in Oct. 2008, April 2009 and Dec. 2010. With the first two budgets focused on tax rises, December’s budget for 2010 drew most praise as it delivered spending cuts of 4 billion euros, including a cut in public sector pay.

– Fresh savings worth 3 billion euros are planned for each of 2011 and 2012.

* SPAIN:

– Spain’s Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero announced on May 12 fresh spending cuts totalling 15 billion euros in 2010 and 2011. Civil service salaries will be cut by 5 percent in 2010 and frozen in 2011, while more than 6 billion euros will be cut from public investment.

– The cuts are aimed at speeding up fiscal consolidation and meet Spain’s revised deficit targets of 9.3 percent of GDP in 2010 and 6 percent in 2011, compared with 11.2 percent in 2009.

– Public debt as a percentage of GDP is seen at 65.9 percent in 2010, rising to 71.9 percent in 2011.

Source: Reuters Bureaux

UK govt plans political reform, financial restraint

Britain’s new coalition government set out plans on Tuesday to reform the electoral system and cut state interference in people’s lives, while tackling a record budget deficit.

The Conservative-Liberal Democrat alliance, Britain’s first coalition for 65 years, also plans to allow private investment in state-owned distribution business Royal Mail, setting the scene for an early clash with trade unions who sharply criticised the new government’s programme.

In a speech delivered on its behalf by Queen Elizabeth at the formal state opening of parliament, the government also proposed legislation to give British people a say on any further transfer of powers to the European Union.

Analysts said the programme of 22 bills, to go before parliament between now and late next year, was an ambitious start to a new era after Labour lost power for the first time since 1997.

The formalities over, Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron attacked Labour’s record, saying the party’s policies had resulted in “an economy that is nearly bankrupt, a society that is broken and a political system that is bust”.

The centre-right Conservatives and smaller, left-leaning Lib Dems took office after an election on May 6, swiftly smoothing over differences on issues such as when to start cutting a deficit running at over 11 percent of national output.

The Treasury set out plans on Monday to trim an initial 6.2 billion pounds ($8.9 billion) from the deficit.

Further cuts are expected in an emergency budget to be presented in four weeks and the deficit issue cast a long shadow over the programme.

DEFICIT CUTS A PRIORITY

“The first priority is to reduce the deficit and restore economic growth,” the queen said in her speech.

“Action will be taken to accelerate the reduction of the structural budget deficit. A new Office for Budget Responsibility will provide confidence in the management of the public finances.”

The office will be led by economist Alan Budd and will take on the task of forecasting economic growth and borrowing needs.

Figures published on Tuesday showed Britain’s economy grew by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of the year in a modest recovery from an 18-month recession.

The coalition tapped into a sense the previous Labour government had extended its reach too far into the lives of ordinary Britons, proposing a Freedom (Great Repeal) Bill to limit the use of CCTV, the storage of DNA samples and e-mail records and to protect the right to peaceful protest.

Led by Cameron and his Lib Dem deputy Nick Clegg, the government is enjoying a political honeymoon, with media largely supportive and markets calmed by first steps on the deficit.

Half of Britons approve of Cameron and Clegg after their first few days in office, pollster Angus Reid said on Tuesday.

However, unions, who traditionally back Labour, signalled that they would give the government a rough ride.

Mark Serwotka, head of the Public and Commercial Services Union whose 300,000 members include many civil servants, urged unions and community groups to defend public services.

Tensions also are lurking below the surface between lawmakers from the two coalition parties.

Former Conservative minister Peter Lilley touched on these when he said he would campaign against changes to the voting system in a referendum, a key Lib Dem demand.

Analysts said the government had outlined an ambitious programme but the acid test would be how the coalition hung together when managing unexpected turbulence.

“Potentially this is clearly a radical agenda. If all 22 bills go through, Britain is going to be a different place,” Bristol University politics professor Mark Wickham-Jones said.

(Additional reporting by Adrian Croft, Estelle Shirbon, Tim Castle; editing by Michael Roddy)

HIGHLIGHTS – UK govt sets out agenda in Queen’s Speech

The new British coalition government set out its legislative agenda on Tuesday in a speech delivered by Queen Elizabeth at the state opening of parliament.

Following are key quotes:

ON DEFICIT/ECONOMY:

“The first priority is to reduce the deficit and restore economic growth.”

“Action will be taken to accelerate the reduction of the structural budget deficit. A new Office for Budget Responsibility will provide confidence in the management of the public finances.”

POLITICAL REFORMS:

“Measures will be brought forward to introduce fixed term Parliaments of five years.”

“A Bill will be introduced for a referendum on the Alternative Vote system for the House of Commons (lower house) and to create fewer and more equal sized constituencies.”

EU RELATIONS

“My Government will introduce legislation to ensure that in future this Parliament and the British people have their say on any proposed transfer of powers to the European Union.”

ON IMMIGRATION:

“My Government will limit the number of non-European Union economic migrants entering the United Kingdom, and end the detention of children for immigration purposes.”