TREASURIES-Fall in Asia, eyes on economic data

June 14 (Reuters) – U.S. Treasuries fell in Asia on Monday giving up some of the gains they made late last week, as regional stocks rose, curbing the safe-haven appeal of debt.

Bonds

* But losses were limited with many investors looking to this week’s economic data, including producer and consumer price numbers, for more clues on the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.

* Treasuries climbed on Friday after a surprise drop in May retail sales raised doubts about the vigour of the recovery and revived the safety bid for government bonds.

* “Given recent remarks from Bernanke on the jobless rate, the market feels that the chance of a Fed rate hike in the coming months is very slim,” said Yoshio Takahashi, a fixed-income strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

“Compared to March, the market has become more sensitive to factors that would push yields lower.”

* Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week the U.S. economy was on a solid footing but cautioned it could be years before jobs lost during the deep recession of 2008-2009 are restored. His emphasis on the struggles of the U.S. jobs market suggested the central bank was in no rush to raise interest rates. [ID:nN09158380]

* Economists forecast the May Producer Price Index numbers due on Wednesday and the May Consumer Price Index figures on Thursday to show little inflationary pressure. [ECI/US] Subdued price pressures would reinforce market view for a delayed Fed rate increase.

* Other key data to watch this week includes housing starts, industrial production and capacity utilization on Wednesday, as well as jobless claims on Thursday.

* If they reassure investors that the economy is not on the verge of a double-dip recession, that would work to the advantage of the stock market and to the disadvantage of bonds, other analysts said.

* T-note futures fell 11.5/32 to 120-9.5/32 TYv1. Benchmark 10-year notes dropped 6/32 in price to yield 3.266 percent US10YT=RR, up 2 basis points from New York trade on Friday. But the 10-year yield has stood around the middle of a 3.00 to 3.50 percent trading range since late May when fear of Europe’s debt crisis spurred safety demand for Treasuries.

* Two-year notes edged down 1/32 in price to yield 0.767 percent US2YT=RR, up 3 basis points. Thirty-year bonds dipped 7/32 in price to yield 4.170 percent US30YT=RR, up about a basis points.

* St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on “The Global Recovery and Monetary Policy” and participates in a panel discussion hosted by the Institute of Regulation and Risk North Asia from 0915 GMT in Tokyo. (Editing by Joseph Radford)

SNAPSHOT – Financial Crisis – 0700 GMT

– China economy in a better shape than expected with March
industrial output growth exceeding forecasts, premier says

– China’s new lending, money supply growth surge to record
highs in March, as banks continued explosive credit expansion

– U.S. posts record $956.80 bln budget deficit for the
first half of fiscal 2009, more than tripling the year-ago
deficit

– Summit of Asian leaders in Thailand canceled after
anti-government protesters swarm into the meeting’s venue

– Bank of Japan will consider boosting capital to guard
against possible losses from commercial paper, corporate bonds

– Obama says he is seeing “glimmers of hope” across the
recession-hit U.S. economy but it remains under severe strain

– South Korea says it plans to spend $377 million to help
the country’s car industry through the global downturn

MARKETS

– Asian shares rise on Friday, after U.S., Europe gains on
Thursday, with South Korean stocks hitting a 6-month
high; Japan’s Nikkei .N225 touches 3-month high

– Oil prices rise nearly 5.8 pct on Thursday, fueled by
stocks rally, US data on workers filing new claims for jobless
benefits

– Euro at lowest in almost a month against dollar
, hurt by holiday trade and view ECB edging toward easing

QUOTES

“We have to restore law and order.” – Thailand Prime
Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

“The economy is already bad and after such an event, it’s
pretty obvious business sectors like tourism will really fall
off the cliff.” – Kongkiat Opaswongkarn, chief executive of
Asia Plus Securities in Bangkok.

“China’s economy has shown some positive signs, but we can
all see that our economy still faces some very big
difficulties.” – Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.

“We’ve still got a lot of work to do.” But “we’re starting
to see progress.” – U.S. President Barack Obama.

DIARY

(all times GMT)

TUESDAY, April 14

WASHINGTON – The Commerce Department issues retail sales
for March at 1230; the Labor Department issues producer price
index for March at 1230.
(Compiled by World Desk, Asia, +65 6870 3815)