British envoy says regrets offence over cleric blog

July 11, 2010 By Leave a Comment

(Reuters) – Britain’s ambassador to Lebanon said she regretted any offence caused by her blog praising Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah, an early spiritual mentor of Hezbollah who died on Sunday.

Ambassador Frances Guy was criticized by Israel for an article on her Foreign Office blog titled “The passing of decent men,” in which she said she was saddened by the Shi’ite cleric’s death and that the world “needs more men like him willing to reach out across faiths.”

The Foreign Office said on Friday the article had been removed from her website “after mature consideration.”

Fadlallah was revered by many Shi’ite Muslims across the Middle East and Central Asia, and was known in his later years for his moderate social views and for trying to minimize Muslim sectarian differences.

He was designated a terrorist by the United States and Israel because of his links to militant Shi’ite group Hezbollah and his support for suicide attacks against the Jewish state.

In a new entry, dated July 9, Guy said her earlier posting had been an attempt to “acknowledge the spiritual significance to many of Sheikh Fadlallah and the views that he held in the latter part of his life.”

Guy said she had “no truck with terrorism wherever it is committed in whoever’s name,” and that it was possible for Hezbollah “to reject violence and play a constructive, democratic and peaceful role in Lebanese politics.”

The criticism of her blog followed the firing of a senior CNN editor for Middle East news who published a Twitter message expressing her respect for Fadlallah.

Hundreds of thousands of mourners attended Fadlallah’s funeral in Beirut. Iraq’s U.S.-backed Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and his two predecessors, all flew to Lebanon to pay condolences to the cleric who was born and studied in Iraq and was one of the first backers of Maliki’s Dawa Party.

Fadlallah was also seen as the spiritual leader and mentor of Hezbollah when it was formed after Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, though he later distanced himself from its ties with Iran.

The Iranian-backed Hezbollah was blamed for abduction of Westerners in the 1980s and suicide attacks on U.S. and French targets in Lebanon.

(Reporting by Dominic Evans; Editing by Jon Hemming)

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Iraq’s new parliament to sit, government weeks away

June 14, 2010 By Leave a Comment

(Reuters) – Iraq’s parliament sits on Monday for the first time since inconclusive March elections but it could be weeks before a government is formed that can tackle worsening insurgent violence.

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Iraqis hoped the March 7 election would bring stability as the United States prepares to end combat operations in August ahead of a full troop pullout by the end of 2011.

Instead, weeks of sniping and challenges to the result have exposed the growing pains of Iraq’s nascent democracy, with the chief factions at loggerheads over who gets to lead the government.

Overall violence has dropped sharply since the height of sectarian warfare in 2006-07 but there has been a steady rise in casualties in the past two months, as insurgents try to exploit the political deadlock.

The 325-seat parliament will hold its inaugural session under increased security after gunmen attacked the Iraqi central bank on Sunday, killing at least 15 people.

“Such national occasions definitely will a target for enemies of the democratic process in Iraq,” Baghdad security spokesman Major General Qassim al-Moussawi told reporters.

Emerging from decades of war, sanctions and isolation, Iraq desperately needs stability to restore basic services and foster economic growth on the back of multibillion dollar oil deals. Much-needed legislation, including laws on the oil sector, has been languishing in draft form for years.

Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi led his cross-sectarian Iraqiya alliance to a narrow victory in the election, with strong support from Iraq’s once-dominant Sunni minority.

But he fell short of an outright majority and faces being sidelined by a tie-up between the main Shi’ite blocs — State of Law led by incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which includes Sadr.

Allawi says sidelining the Sunni minority completely could fuel the insurgency that still grips Iraq seven years after a U.S.-led invasion toppled Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein.

The rival Shi’ite bloc, which is itself four seats short of a majority, has yet to agree who will lead the bloc or be prime minister and Maliki is resisting INA pressure to step aside.

The Shi’ite bloc is meanwhile seeking to draw away Sunni deputies from Iraqiya to give it a majority in parliament.

Allawi has threatened to mount a legal challenge to the Shi’ite coalition if it attempts to form a government before his bigger non-sectarian group is given the chance.

Against this background, Monday’s parliamentary session will be largely protocol, and could drag on for weeks as the factions haggle over the posts of president, prime minister and speaker of parliament, as well as more than 30 cabinet posts.

“Tomorrow’s session will be protocol, swearing in, and I think the head of the session will keep it open until a political understanding identifies a deal,” said Qusay al-Suhail, a senior official of a Shi’ite bloc led by firebrand anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

“I expect that the session will remain open for a month until a degree of understanding is reached,” he told Reuters.

(Additional reporting by Ahmed Rasheed; Writing by Matt Robinson; Editing by Jon Boyle)

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Iraq’s new parliament to sit, government weeks away

June 14, 2010 By Leave a Comment

BAGHDAD, June 13 (Reuters) – Iraq’s parliament sits on Monday for the first time since inconclusive March elections but it could be weeks before a government is formed that can tackle worsening insurgent violence.

Iraqis hoped the March 7 election would bring stability as the United States prepares to end combat operations in August ahead of a full troop pullout by the end of 2011.

Instead, weeks of sniping and challenges to the result have exposed the growing pains of Iraq’s nascent democracy, with the chief factions at loggerheads over who gets to lead the government.

Overall violence has dropped sharply since the height of sectarian warfare in 2006-07 but there has been a steady rise in casualties in the past two months, as insurgents try to exploit the political deadlock.

The 325-seat parliament will hold its inaugural session under increased security after gunmen attacked the Iraqi central bank on Sunday, killing at least 15 people.

“Such national occasions definitely will a target for enemies of the democratic process in Iraq,” Baghdad security spokesman Major General Qassim al-Moussawi told reporters.

Emerging from decades of war, sanctions and isolation, Iraq desperately needs stability to restore basic services and foster economic growth on the back of multibillion dollar oil deals. Much-needed legislation, including laws on the oil sector, has been languishing in draft form for years.

Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi led his cross-sectarian Iraqiya alliance to a narrow victory in the election, with strong support from Iraq’s once-dominant Sunni minority.

But he fell short of an outright majority and faces being sidelined by a tie-up between the main Shi’ite blocs — State of Law led by incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which includes Sadr.

Allawi says sidelining the Sunni minority completely could fuel the insurgency that still grips Iraq seven years after a U.S.-led invasion toppled Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein.

The rival Shi’ite bloc, which is itself four seats short of a majority, has yet to agree who will lead the bloc or be prime minister and Maliki is resisting INA pressure to step aside.

The Shi’ite bloc is meanwhile seeking to draw away Sunni deputies from Iraqiya to give it a majority in parliament.

Allawi has threatened to mount a legal challenge to the Shi’ite coalition if it attempts to form a government before his bigger non-sectarian group is given the chance.

Against this background, Monday’s parliamentary session will be largely protocol, and could drag on for weeks as the factions haggle over the posts of president, prime minister and speaker of parliament, as well as more than 30 cabinet posts.

“Tomorrow’s session will be protocol, swearing in, and I think the head of the session will keep it open until a political understanding identifies a deal,” said Qusay al-Suhail, a senior official of a Shi’ite bloc led by firebrand anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

“I expect that the session will remain open for a month until a degree of understanding is reached,” he told Reuters. (Additional reporting by Ahmed Rasheed; Writing by Matt Robinson; Editing by Jon Boyle)

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Suicide bomber kills four police in Iraqi capital

June 6, 2010 By Leave a Comment

A suicide bomber drove a car packed with explosives into a crowd of police officers at shift change outside a police station in Baghdad on Sunday, killing four and wounding 12, a source in Iraq’s Interior Ministry said.

The bomber struck in the mainly Shi’ite Amil district in the southwestern area of the Iraqi capital, the source said.

Tensions have been running high since a parliamentary election nearly three months ago that produced no clear winner, forcing potentially divisive negotiations between Iraq’s Shi’ite, Sunni and Kurdish political factions to agree a new government.

Overall violence has tumbled since the worst of Iraq’s sectarian warfare in 2006-07, when tens of thousands of people were killed.

But civilian deaths have climbed since the March 7 election. Iraqi authorities said 275 civilians were killed in bomb blasts and other attacks in May and 274 in April, up from 216 in March and 211 in February.

A cross-sectarian electoral coalition led by secularist former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi rode strong support from Iraq’s minority Sunnis to a two-seat victory over a largely Shi’ite bloc headed by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

But Maliki’s State of Law group has announced a tentative alliance with the third-place finisher, the Shi’ite Iraqi National Alliance, to form a single bloc in parliament.

Allawi has warned that any attempt by the Shi’ite groups to form a government that excludes his Sunni-backed Iraqiya coalition could spark renewed violence.

On Saturday, gunmen killed an Iraqiya candidate who did not win a seat in parliament. Faras al-Jubouri was shot to death in his home near the troubled northern city of Mosul.

He was the second Iraqiya candidate to be killed since the election.

(Writing by Jim Loney; Editing by Michael Roddy)

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Fresh appeals lodged in Iraqi election impasse

May 24, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Election officials in Iraq said on Sunday they had received new appeals stemming from March’s parliamentary election but did not expect more than a brief delay in ratification of the results.

A political vacuum since the inconclusive vote is fuelling tension, with a proposed Shi’ite alliance causing concern that minority Sunnis could be pushed to the sidelines.

A cross-sectarian bloc led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi won a two-seat victory, with the heavy backing of Sunni voters. Allawi has warned that any attempt to marginalise his bloc in a new government could trigger renewed sectarian violence.

The major Shi’ite groups, incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance, which has close ties to Shi’ite neighbour Iran, have announced plans to unite to form the largest bloc in parliament.

Allawi, a secular Shi’ite, visited Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s most revered Shi’ite cleric, on Sunday in the holy city of Najaf in southern Iraq.

In the capital, election officials said they had received four new appeals from candidates who lost their seats in the new 325-seat parliament after a recount of votes cast in Baghdad.

“We have received four appeals from candidates — not blocs — and certainly this will delay sending the results to the federal (Supreme) court for approval,” said Amal al-Biraqdar, deputy head of Independent High Electoral Committee (IHEC).

Monday is the last day for electoral appeals, which the court of appeals should rule on within 10 days. The results will then be sent to the Supreme Court for certification.

IHEC commissioner Saad al-Rawi said he did not expect the court of appeals to take long in reviewing the latest complaints, “a day or two, not more”.

The delay in the formation of a new government has rattled nerves, and the prospect of the Sunni minority losing out on a place in power is fuelling fears of a slide back into broader sectarian bloodshed.

The alliance between State of Law and INA would be just four seats short of a governing majority in the parliament, but they have yet to agree on who becomes prime minister.

Speaking to reporters in Najaf, Allawi said Sistani was not taking sides.

“He does not support a certain bloc or oppose any bloc. he does not have a veto against any side,” he said. Sistani, he added, “stresses the need to accelerate the formation of the government”.

A source within Sistani’s office said the Grand Ayatollah had urged “all blocs” to contribute to a new government.

(Additional reporting by Muhanad Mohammed in Baghdad and Khalid Farhan in Najaf; Writing by Matt Robinson; Editing by Alison Williams)

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Torture, rape was norm at illegal Iraq prison – report

April 28, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Torture, beating and sodomising inmates with brooms or pistol barrels were the norm at an illegal prison run by a military unit under the command of the Iraqi prime minister’s office, Human Rights Watch said.

The rights group on Wednesday called for a thorough investigation over the detention centre, which was discovered and closed down this month by Iraq’s Human Rights Ministry, and urged Iraq to prosecute those responsible.

Shi’ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has denied any connection with the facility, which housed mainly Sunni Arab prisoners from the volatile northern city of Mosul where insurgent groups such as al Qaeda operate.

The revelation of the prison came at a sensitive time for Maliki as he tries to negotiate alliances with other factions that would allow him to be reappointed as prime minister following an inconclusive election in March.

Sunni outrage at the reports of their compatriots being mistreated by majority Shi’ite-led authorities could increase sectarian tensions just as violence is beginning to recede.

Human Rights Watch interviewed 42 of the 300 men who had been detained on a military base at Baghdad’s old Muthanna airfield after being arrested in Mosul and accused of terrorism.

“The men’s stories were credible and consistent. Most of the 300 displayed fresh scars and injuries they said were a result of routine and systematic torture they had experienced at the hands of interrogators at Muthanna,” Human Rights Watch said.

The detainees said many were handcuffed, blindfolded and hung upside down. Interrogators kicked, whipped and beat them.

Interrogators also placed dirty plastic bags over their heads to close off air supply. When the detainees passed out, interrogators awakened them with electric shocks to the genitals or other parts of the body, Human Rights Watch said.

One detainee, a former Iraqi army general who had been living in London but returned to Mosul after his son was detained, said his jailors refused to give him medicine for his diabetes and high blood pressure, and beat him severely.

“They applied electricity to my penis and sodomized me with a stick,” the man, who is in a wheelchair, told Human Rights Watch. “I was forced to sign a confession that they wouldn’t let me read.”

Another detainee, who was 21, said interrogators threatened to rape his mother and sisters if he did not confess. During one torture session, guards made another detainee rape him.

Another detainee said he was sodomised with a pistol.

The Human Rights Ministry says three Iraqi army officers have been arrested for questioning. The prison was illegal because it was not under the jurisdiction of the Justice Ministry and the Human Rights Ministry was not informed of it.

Conditions in legal Iraqi prisons are often not much better. The justice system relies on confessions for prosecutions, not evidence. That makes torture common though perhaps not as routine as under ousted dictator Saddam Hussein.

“What happened at Muthanna is an example of the horrendous abuse Iraqi leaders say they want to leave behind,” said Joe Stork, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch.

“Everyone responsible, from the top on down, needs to be held accountable.”

(Editing by Giles Elgood)

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Iraqi PM says next government has to include Sunnis

April 17, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Iraq’s incumbent Shi’ite Muslim prime minister said the next government to be formed after an inconclusive election in March had to include the Sunni-backed coalition that won the most seats.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who is seeking a second term, said in an interview aired on Friday it was too early for Iraq to be run by a majority government and a “national partnership government” was needed to ensure stability after years of war.

That meant the next government would be weak due to its subservience to conflicting interests, he said.

“I had wished that the (next) government would be formed on the basis of a political majority, leaving behind the quota-based system, but it seems that idea is still premature,” Maliki told the U.S.-funded al-Hurra television network.

“The thing we have to accept is that there must be a national partnership government. A national partnership government means all main factions making up the Iraqi community are represented in it.”

Maliki’s Shi’ite-led State of Law alliance came second in the March 7 vote with 89 seats in the 325-seat parliament.

The cross-sectarian Iraqiya bloc led by former prime minister Iyad Allawi won the most seats at 91 after gaining broad backing from minority Sunnis who dominated Iraq under Saddam Hussein and who are hungry to regain influence after seven years of Shi’ite political supremacy.

The results still need to be certified, a process that could yet take weeks. In the meantime, Maliki’s bloc and Iraq’s other main Shi’ite-dominated coalition, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), have been inching toward a tie-up that could sideline Allawi, a secular Shi’ite.

That could increase sectarian tensions if Sunnis feel aggrieved, at a time when the all-out sectarian conflict that followed the 2003 U.S.-led invasion has faded and U.S. troops are preparing to end combat operations and withdraw.

‘SUNNIS MUST BE INCLUDED’

Sunni resentment at their loss of power after Saddam’s fall helped fuel a fierce insurgency and fighting in which tens of thousands died. Negotiations over forming the next government are taking place against a backdrop of threats by Sunni Islamist insurgents seeking to reignite wholesale sectarian slaughter.

“The Iraqiya bloc represents most Sunni Arabs, therefore they must be partners in forming the government because this element must be represented,” Maliki said.

“I fear that the next government will be weaker than the current government because all the partners in the political process are claiming ministerial positions in advance. It is an unfortunate thing,” he added.

Asked about Allawi specifically, the prime minister said he had nothing against him personally. But he criticised those he believed yearned for a return to Saddam’s Baath Party-led past and who put partisan interests over national interests.

Maliki’s comments came amid growing speculation that his chances of being reappointed prime minister are dimming.

One of the INA’s most powerful factions, anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s movement, has opposed his nomination and merger talks between the INA and Maliki’s State of Law have included discussions on an internal election to pick a prime minister, a vote that Maliki may not necessarily win.

“An alliance to form the government that only consists of two blocs and which excludes other blocs will destroy the political process and national unity,” Maliki said.

(Additional reporting by Waleed Ibrahim and Muhanad Mohammed; Writing by Michael Christie; Editing by Jon Hemming)

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Iraq PM’s bloc says fraud may have cost it 750,000 votes

April 12, 2010 By Leave a Comment

(Reuters) – The coalition of Iraq’s incumbent prime minister, which came second in inconclusive March elections, said Sunday up to 750,000 votes had been tainted by fraud and it was seeking a recount in five provinces.

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The election had no clear winner, leaving Iraq facing months of negotiations on a new government and a power vacuum that insurgents have tried to exploit as U.S. troops prepare to end combat operations.

Five months of political impasse after the last national vote in 2005 allowed sectarian bloodshed to take hold. The all-out war between majority Shi’ites and the Sunnis who dominated Iraq under Saddam Hussein has faded, but Sunni Islamist insurgents continue a campaign of suicide bombings.

The State of Law alliance headed by Shi’ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki got 89 out of 325 parliamentary seats in the March 7 vote. That was two seats behind the cross-sectarian Iraqiya alliance led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, which won broad backing from the Sunni minority.

Maliki said on March 31 his coalition had appealed against the results to the Independent High Electoral Commission. At the time, he said any irregularities were unlikely to have a significant influence on the formation of the next government.

His alliance said Sunday that it wanted a recount in five provinces, and at the very least votes should be tallied anew in Baghdad. The capital is the most populous of Iraq’s 18 provinces and counts for 68 seats, just over a fifth of parliament.

“We believe the amount of manipulation in the votes in these five provinces could reach 750,000 votes … this is a huge number and possibly could change enormously the election results,” coalition spokesman Hachim al-Hasani told reporters.

“This is why we presented this appeal and we hope that the judicial appeal panel will do its duty … and look into it seriously.” He said most of the votes affected by fraud would otherwise have gone to the State of Law coalition.

The United States and the United Nations have said the Iraqi election appeared to be reasonably fair though not perfect.

NEGOTIATIONS

As both the two leading parties fell well short of a majority in the March poll, they have been left seeking partners to form a government.

Maliki’s alliance has held merger talks with the third-placed Shi’ite Iraqi National Alliance (INA).

The Sadrists, led by anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, had the best showing within the INA with around 40 seats but their leader has opposed helping Maliki become prime minister again.

The political jockeying is taking place as the U.S. forces which invaded Iraq in 2003 prepare to end combat operations in August in preparation for a full withdrawal by the end of 2011.

The U.S. plans could be threatened by an upsurge in violence and instability. Bombings and other attacks since the beginning of April have killed more than 100 people.

Allawi’s Iraqiya list said Sunday authorities were arresting some of its supporters.

“We demand the immediate end to random mass arrests, state terrorism and the illegal intimidation of families as has happened to our supporters,” Iraqiya spokeswoman Maysoon al-Damluji said at a press conference.

(Additional reporting by Aseel Kami, Waleed Ibrahim and Muhanad Mohammed, writing by Nick Carey; editing by Andrew Roche)

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Thirteen arrested over Iraq village killings

April 8, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Iraqi security forces arrested 13 suspects and blamed the al Qaeda militant group on Wednesday for killing 24 people in a village near Baghdad last week.

The attack was one of a series that prompted Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to step up security in the capital, a month after a parliamentary election that Iraqis had hoped would stabilise their nation after years of sectarian warfare.

Gunmen wearing military uniforms stormed Albusaifi, a Sunni Muslim village south of Baghdad, on Friday. Among those killed were former members of the Awakening movement, or Sons of Iraq — insurgents who turned against al Qaeda and helped turn the tide of the war.

“It was a criminal incident and the print of the al Qaeda organization was clear,” Major General Ali al-Fraji, the head of army security south of Baghdad, said at a news conference.

The defence ministry said 16 people were involved in the attack on Albusaifi, all members of one family. Thirteen were arrested and 10 had confessed, Fraji said, though he did not specify the charges.

The March 7 vote produced no clear winner and could deepen Iraq’s sectarian divide, stirring fears of increased violence as politicians jockey for positions in a new coalition government.

The Albusaifi killings were followed two days later by suicide car bomb attacks on foreign embassies in Baghdad that killed at least 41 people and wounded more than 200.

On Tuesday, coordinated bombings across Baghdad destroyed seven buildings and killed at least 35 people.

The formation of a new government could still be weeks or months away, raising concerns about a power vacuum that could cause violence.

Sectarian killing exploded when politicians took more than five months to agree on a government after the parliamentary elections in 2005.

(Reporting by Jim Loney, editing by Paul Taylor)

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ANALYSIS – Allawi has uphill road to turn Iraq win into power

March 29, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Iraq’s election winner Iyad Allawi, the leader of a successful cross-sectarian coalition that wooed Shi’ites and Sunnis, also wants to court Arab neighbours and reach out to Iran.

It is far from certain he will get that chance.

The secularist Allawi’s loose-knit Iraqiya alliance won Iraq’s March 7 parliamentary election by a whisker. The result is widely interpreted to mean Iraqis are weary of religious politics and ready to embrace a government that can supply electricity and jobs.

The British-trained physician who wants to return to the prime minister’s office he held in a 2004-5 transitional government won the popular vote and got two seats more than Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in the new parliament.

He said on Saturday that the path to a new government ran through Iraqiya.

But officials with Maliki’s State of Law bloc and a fellow Shi’ite coalition, the Iraqi National Alliance, say they are talking about a merger that would make anti-American Shi’ite Moqtada al-Sadr, whose Mehdi Army fought fiercely against U.S. troops, a power player in Iraq’s new political landscape.

“The government will not form (from other than) State of Law and INA because the kingmaker now is Moqtada al-Sadr,” Iraqi political analyst Ibrahim al-Sumaidaie said. “Moqtada will not stand in front of the Shi’ites and Iran and tell them ‘I got you a mainly Sunni government with Baathist links.’”

An erstwhile member of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party who spent decades in exile from Saddam’s Iraq, Allawi says he survived an assassination attempt by Baathist agents in 1987.

But lingering doubts about his allegiances were fuelled by his election union with perceived Baathist sympathisers, including prominent Sunni politician Saleh al-Mutlaq. Mutlaq was barred from running due to alleged Baathist ties.

Allawi has said he is open to alliances with anyone. Iraqiya is talking with INA and its major component, the Sadrists, as well as the Kurds. He also said in a television interview on Saturday he is talking to some members of Maliki’s party, Dawa.

OBJECTIONS TO BAATHISTS

“Shi’ite parties have raised objections to some of the characters in the Iraqiya list who they say are loyal to the Baath Party,” Baghdad university professor Haider Hameed said.

“Kurds also have objections and disagreements … and competing parties disagree with their approach and thinking, and consider a coalition deal with Iraqiya is an impossible task.”

Maliki himself has indicated he would not give up his post without a fight, possibly in court. State of Law has lots of potential partners.

A union with Allawi appears unlikely but Maliki may try to pick off parts of his rival’s coalition.

“We intend to form a coalition sufficient to form the next government and we have other big options in this realm that we are satisfied with,” he said, “But if some blocs belonging to the Iraqiya list want to join us, we welcome them.”

There’s no guarantee Allawi will even get first crack at forming a government. Under a court ruling issued last week, that could go to the bloc with the largest number of seats not from the election, but after parliament is seated.

That means any coalition that can persuade another bloc to join it when parliament convenes can count the former rival’s numbers in its total, an opportunity for Maliki to make up his two-seat election deficit.

Despite the formidable task ahead — bringing Kurds, Sunnis and fellow Shi’ites together under his banner — Allawi has the benefit of being able to claim a mandate from war-weary Iraqis.

MEDDLESOME NEIGHBOUR

And those who abhor outside interference in their nation’s affairs may view him as a moderate alternative to Maliki and his possible allies, who are all tied to Iran, a neighbour perceived as meddlesome, with memories of an eight-year war still fresh.

“Should Allawi succeed in his bid to form a government, Iraq’s relations with Iran would shift to a more ‘correct’ posture, with Allawi offering cooperation, but warning Tehran against interference,” said Wayne White, a scholar at the Middle East Institute.

Iran has more influence in Iraq than even the United States, which has 96,000 troops here, according to some analysts.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, and Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi, a senior member of INA’s Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, were in Tehran on Friday, the day Iraq announced vote results, for meetings with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The same day, representatives of Maliki’s State of Law and the Sadrist movement went to meet Moqtada al-Sadr, who is studying in Iran, according to party sources.

Once a vocal critic of Tehran for helping Shi’ite militias fighting on Iraqi soil, Allawi has toned down his language and reached out, not only to Shi’ite Iran but to Arab Gulf neighbours who are predominantly Sunni.

“An Allawi government probably could count on … far more recognition, support and cooperation from important Sunni Arab governments such as those of the Arab Gulf states, Egypt and Jordan, where he has extensive, longstanding contacts and where he is viewed quite favourably — even as a bulwark against Iran,” White said.

(Additional reporting by Rania El Gamal, Muhanad Mohammed and Khalid al-Ansary; Editing by Elizabeth Fullerton)

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Iraq’s Allawi says open to all in coalition talks

March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Iraq election winner Iyad Allawi said on Saturday he was open to alliances with any faction and wanted quickly to form a government that would build strong relationships with its regional neighbours.

Allawi’s secular, cross-sectarian Iraqiya bloc won by a two-seat margin in preliminary results released on Friday over the State of Law coalition led by Shi’ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who said he would challenge the results.

With neither of the leading blocs close to the majority needed to rule alone, the tight race portends lengthy and divisive negotiations to form a government as Iraq seeks to escape years of sectarian warfare and U.S. troops prepare to pull out.

“The Iraqiya list’s decision is to be open to all powers starting from the State of Law headed by the prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki,” Allawi said at a news conference.

“Iraq does not belong to anyone or any party but it belongs to all Iraqis.”

Allawi, a secular Shi’ite who served as prime minister in 2004-05 after the U.S. invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein, and his Iraqiya partners took 91 seats in parliament to 89 for Maliki’s State of Law coalition in a vote that exposed the depth of Iraq’s sectarian divide.

Violence erupted when Iraq’s political leaders took five months to form a government after the last parliamentary vote in 2005. Allawi appeared to try to allay fears of a repeat.

“We hope … to form the government as quickly as possible. A government that is capable of providing security and to offer the appropriate services to its people,” he said.

But perhaps signalling the difficulties ahead, Allawi said the road to a new government led through Iraqiya, an apparent reference to Maliki’s declaration on Friday night that he was on his way to forming the biggest bloc in parliament.

“The Iraqi people chose the Iraqiya to be the base to start talks with the other parties according to the constitution,” Allawi said.

Officials with Maliki’s coalition and from the third-place finisher, the Iraqi National Alliance, a bloc with close relationships with Shi’ite neighbour Iran, have said they are working toward a merger. The two combined would hold 159 seats, close to the majority needed to form a government.

INA includes the Sadrist political movement of anti-American Shi’ite Moqtada al-Sadr, who is studying in Iran and is shaping up to be the new kingmaker of Iraqi politics.

His party performed beyond expectations in the election, outpolling its INA partner, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which was formed in exile in Iran.

In a sign of Sadr’s newfound muscle in Iraqi politics, representatives of State of Law and the Sadrists travelled to Iran on Friday to meet with Sadr, according to INA sources.

But any attempt by the major Shi’ite blocs to sideline Allawi could lead to resentment among Sunnis pushed to the side when the majority Shi’ites rose to power following the U.S. invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

While Maliki and the INA are seen as having close ties to Iran, Allawi is viewed as having better relations with Arab states. At one time he was highly critical of Tehran for supporting Shi’ite militias in Iraq, but is reported to have sought to mend fences.

Allawi said on Saturday that the new government should work on strengthening political and economic ties with its neighbours and end long-running disputes over borders with countries such as Iran and Kuwait.

“We should not forget that the stability of Iraq is from the stability of the region… The coming government should work to deepen this concept,” he said.

Underscoring Iraq’s fragile security and the tensions caused by the election, two explosions in the town of Khalis, in Iraq’s mainly Sunni northern Diyala province, killed at least 42 people and wounded 65 just hours before the release of the results on Friday.

(Additional reporting by Khalid al-Ansary, writing by Jim Loney; Editing by Michael Roddy)

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Secularist former leader Allawi wins Iraq vote

March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Secularist challenger Iyad Allawi’s coalition won the most seats in Iraq’s election, according to preliminary results on Friday, but the tight race foreshadowed long, divisive talks to form a new government.

The cross-sectarian Iraqiya bloc headed by Allawi took 91 seats with the State of Law coalition led by Shi’ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki close behind at 89 seats, a result that highlighted Iraq’s sectarian gulf following a vote Iraqis hoped would stabilise their country after years of war.

Allawi, a secular Shi’ite who served as prime minister in 2004-5 and was once highly critical of Shi’ite neighbour Iran for meddling in Iraq, said in brief comments on television that he would extend “hands and heart” to all groups.

“For all who want and wish to participate in building Iraq, we will together bury political sectarianism and political regionalism,” he said.

Nearly three weeks after the March 7 ballot, the preliminary results showed Maliki taking ethnically and religiously diverse Baghdad and predominantly Shi’ite southern provinces, while Allawi dominated largely Sunni northern and western regions.

Celebratory gunfire rang out in the streets of Baghdad after the results were announced.

The Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a Shi’ite bloc with close ties to Iran, was in third place with 70 seats, and the Kurdish alliance, a union of two powerful parties in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish north, finished with 43 seats.

The INA, an alliance which includes anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr currently studying in Iran, is negotiating a merger with Maliki’s State of Law. Maliki said he was on the way to forming the biggest bloc in parliament.

But any attempt to sideline Allawi in what could be weeks or months of perilous negotiations to form a new government could lead to resentment among Sunnis shunted to the political wilderness when Iraq’s majority Shi’ites rose to power following the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein.

Sectarian violence exploded after the last parliamentary vote in 2005 as politicians took more than five months to agree a government.

SADR THE KINGMAKER?

The United States congratulated Iraq for carrying out a successful election, noting neither international nor domestic observers had reported any signs of widespread or serious fraud.

“This marks a significant milestone in the ongoing democratic development of Iraq,” State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said.

But Maliki said he believed the results were not final.

“For sure, we will not accept these results,” he told a news conference.

The results released on Friday represented a 100 percent preliminary count of the votes, but the final results must be certified by a court.

The potential power vacuum and likely instability during the coalition negotiations will be watched closely by Washington as the U.S. military prepares to end combat operations formally by Sept. 1 and pull its troops out by the end of 2011, and also by global oil firms that inked multibillion-dollar contracts to refurbish Iraq’s rich but dilapidated oilfields.

Underscoring Iraq’s fragile security and the tensions caused by the March 7 election, two explosions in the town of Khalis, in Iraq’s mainly Sunni northern Diyala province, killed at least 42 people and wounded 65 just before the release of the results.

The Sadrists’ strong election showing gives Sadr, a Shi’ite cleric whose Mehdi Army fiercely fought U.S. troops, a potential kingmaker role in the new parliament. Representatives of Maliki’s State of Law and the Sadrists travelled to Iran on Friday to meet with Sadr, according to INA sources.

While Maliki and INA are seen as having close ties to Iran, Allawi is viewed as having better relations with Arab states. He was once highly critical of Tehran for supporting Shi’ite militias in Iraq, but is reported to have sought to mend fences.

A merger of State of Law and INA would take the two blocs close to the 163 seats needed to form a government.

Such an alliance could leave Sunnis vulnerable after they turned out in force at the polls. Their participation was considered a key to Iraq’s future stability after the sectarian bloodshed that engulfed the country in 2006-07.

A merger could also leave Maliki exposed in his quest for a second term as prime minister. The Sadrists were infuriated when Maliki sent federal troops to crush their militias and authorities still hold hundreds of Sadrist prisoners.

(Additional reporting by Rania El Gamal, Muhanad Mohammed, Aseel Kami and Ian Simpson; Writing by Jim Loney; Editing by Jon Hemming)

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Allawi’s victory could be prelude to political uncertainty in Iraq: NYT

March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Baghdad, Mar. 27 (ANI): Ayad Allawi’s narrow victory over incumbent Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki in the Iraqi general elections is being seen as a prelude to a period of political uncertainty and possible violence that could delay the withdrawal of American troops from the country, the New York Times reports.

Soon after the declaration of results, Maliki and his supporters hurled accusations of fraud at Allawi, who has the reputation of being an American puppet.

Western observers and an independent election commission said they saw no signs of widespread fraud.

Allawi galvanized the votes of millions of Sunnis — who boycotted the last parliamentary elections in 2005 — to build his edge of 91 to 89 seats over his nearest rival, Maliki, the paper says.

That falls far short of the majority of 163 of the 325 seats in Parliament that he needs to form a government, it adds.

While Iraqi political experts interviewed doubt that Allawi would succeed in assembling a governing coalition, Maliki would remain the caretaker prime minister of the nation until the appointment of a new government.

Reactions in Iraq ranged from jubilation to fear.

Some people partied in the streets, honking horns and firing weapons in the air; others stockpiled food in case of violence and renewed curfews.

“Nobody felt happy in Diyala,” said Qais Jihad, 30, referring to the pair of bombs outside a cafe, killing 43 people who had gathered to await the results. “It is a win with a bloody flavor. Now we want to finish with election troubles and form a government so we can stop Iraqis’ bleeding.” (ANI)

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Iraq’s two main Shi’ite blocs discuss merger

March 24, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Iraq’s two main Shi’ite political blocs, one led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and another whose leaders have close ties to Iran, are discussing a merger that could widen Iraq’s sectarian divide.

A union between Maliki’s State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance, two of the top three vote-getters in Iraq’s March 7 parliamentary election, could sideline secularist former premier Iyad Allawi, whose cross-sectarian Iraqiya coalition won strong support from minority Sunnis.

A merger could also push aside Maliki, who wants another term at the helm. One of INA’s major components, the Sadrist movement of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, was the top vote-getter for INA and has poor relations with the premier.

The makeup of the next government is being watched closely by Washington, which plans to formally end combat operations in Iraq by Sept. 1, and by global oil companies that have signed multibillion-dollar contracts to develop Iraq’s oilfields.

“There has been more than one meeting with INA to reach a deal to form an alliance or merge both coalitions,” Sami al-Askari, a prominent member of Maliki’s State of Law, told Reuters shortly after another leading member of the bloc issued a public statement saying the two needed to merge.

State of Law is running in a virtual dead heat with Allawi’s coalition. None of the leading blocs is expected to win enough seats to form a government alone and talks between parties and coalitions about potential alliances are in full swing.

The final preliminary vote count is scheduled to be released on Friday, nearly three weeks after the election.

Allawi’s Iraqiya drew strong support from Iraq’s minority Sunni population and analysts have said any attempt to exclude Iraqiya from the government could anger Sunnis marginalised after the 2003 U.S. invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

“There is a necessity to merge the State of Law coalition and the Iraqi National Alliance,” Ali al-Dabbagh, who serves as Maliki’s government spokesman, said in a written statement.

FORMER PARTNERS

Maliki and INA’s main component, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (ISCI), are former partners that split before the March 7 election.

ISCI, formed in exile in Shi’ite neighbour Iran, allied for the election with the Sadrist movement. There had been speculation that ISCI and the Sadrists, who performed strongly, would split after the election.

But INA sources suggested a merger of the two coalitions would include the Sadrists, who are known to have strong objections to Maliki remaining as prime minister.

Al-Askari said there was no talk of dropping Maliki as the candidate for premier of a merged bloc. “There is no other choice except Maliki,” he said.

But a senior INA member and candidate in the election, who confirmed the two blocs were in merger talks, said the union could not happen if State of Law insisted on Maliki as premier.

“It’s impossible to allow Maliki to be PM again,” the official said. “There is no way to change this and if he (Maliki) rejects this, OK, let him go to ally with Iraqiya.”

In reaction to the possibility of a State of Law-INA merger, Iraqiya candidate Jamal al-Bateekh said: “There are people who want to cling to power despite the voters’ interest.”

“Forming coalitions is a natural right for the winning blocs, but we want the country’s interest to prevail, not the sectarian coalitions that will return us to square one.”

Sixteen days after the election, about 95 percent of the vote count has been made public. Allawi’s Iraqiya leads Maliki’s State of Law by about 11,000 votes.

Maliki’s bloc is ahead in seven of 18 provinces and Allawi’s in five. Seats in parliament will be allocated on the basis of a bloc’s success in each province, not the national popular vote.

State of Law and Iraqiya each expect to hold more than 90 of the 325 parliamentary seats. Analysts say INA may win 65-70.

Formation of a new government is expected to take months.

Analysts have said attempts to sideline Allawi could be seen as an attempt to relegate Sunnis to the political wilderness and set back Iraq’s fragile security gains following years of sectarian warfare that killed tens of thousands of people.

The United States plans to halve the number of troops in Iraq by the end of August and withdraw completely before 2012.
Suadad al-Salhy

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Allawi edges ahead of PM again in Iraq poll

March 22, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Secularist Iyad Allawi has edged ahead of Shi’ite prime minister Nuri al-Maliki in a neck-and-neck election race that has laid bare the ethnic and sectarian divisions threatening Iraq’s fragile stability.

The new results from Iraq’s electoral commission, with about 93 per cent of an early vote count complete, gave a lead of around 8,000 votes to Mr Allawi, a Shi’ite former prime minister with wide support among minority Sunnis who fear consolidation of the dominance of Shi’ite religious parties in Iraq since 2003.

The lead in the popular vote has changed hands several times and the eventual winner may be able to claim a symbolic victory, but no matter the final result both men will need to engage in long and potentially divisive talks to try to form a coalition capable of forming a government.

As early results trickle in after the March 7 polls, the divided vote is a reminder of Iraq’s precarious position on the seventh anniversary of the US-led invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein and plunged Iraq into a bloody civil conflict.

Mr Maliki, who has won over many Iraqis with his nationalist rhetoric and steps to crush sectarian violence in Iraq, leads in seven provinces in central and southern Iraq, six of them mainly Shi’ite.

The prime minister has a narrow 6 per cent lead over Mr Allawi in Baghdad, the diverse capital city, but he has virtually no support in largely Sunni provinces where many are sceptical of his Shi’ite Islamist roots and condemn his support of a ban of hundreds of candidates, including prominent Sunnis.

Mr Allawi, who has tried to model himself as a non-sectarian outsider, swept western and northern areas home to large numbers of Sunni Arabs.

The physician and fluent English speaker holds a narrow lead over a Kurdish bloc in Kirkuk, the disputed city that is Iraq’s northern oil hub.

Both Maliki and Allawi supporters are predicting they will get more than 90 seats in Iraq’s 325-member parliament.

Full early results will be released in the next few days and final results may take weeks.

- Reuters

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Iran praises Iraq election as Shi’ite ally leads

March 16, 2010 By Leave a Comment

(Reuters) – Iran congratulated Iraqis on Tuesday over an election that is likely to keep a bloc led by its Shi’ite ally, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, in power after a campaign in which Tehran’s influence was a divisive issue.

World

Maliki’s main challenger, former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who headed a secular list mixing Shi’ite and Sunni Arabs, made a high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia during the campaign to improve ties with Iran’s biggest Sunni rival in the Gulf region.

“All international supervision has confirmed the soundness of the Iraqi elections. This is a success and we congratulate Iraqis,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said at a weekly press briefing on English-language state television.

“We hope we’ll be able to see the formation of the new government as soon as possible … the whole region will benefit from security in Iraq.”

Early results from the March 7 parliamentary vote show Maliki’s State of Law bloc ahead in seven of 18 provinces, while strong Sunni Arab support has propelled the Allawi’s secularist Iraqiya list into second.

A member of Iraq’s Shi’ite Arab majority, Maliki has maintained close ties with non-Arab Shi’ite power Iran, Iraq’s neighbor which is locked in dispute with the United States over its nuclear energy program and influence in Arab countries.

Analysts say leading Sunni Arab states such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia would be more comfortable with a government led by Allawi.

Politicians have criticized the delay in publishing the election results.

Allawi’s list has put forward a long list of complaints about alleged fraud, including ballots found in garbage and more than 200,000 soldiers who were unable to vote because their names did not appear on official rosters.

Maliki, who came to power in 2005, was unpopular in Arab capitals when sectarian fighting worsened in 2006, confirming the marginalization of Sunni Arabs who dominated Iraq under former leader Saddam Hussein.

Sunnis see Maliki as a Shi’ite leader beholden to Tehran.

The United States, which toppled Hussein in 2003, still has troops in Iraq who are preparing to withdraw before 2012 — a process that could be key to U.S. President Barack Obama’s political fortunes.

(Reporting by Andrew Hammond, editing by Paul Taylor)

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Iraq’s Arab neighbors wary of Shi’ite sway after vote

March 16, 2010 By Leave a Comment

(Reuters) – Iraq’s Arab neighbors fear a split Iraqi election could further marginalize minority Sunnis and hope any coalition government formed by the Shi’ite frontrunner will resist Iran’s sway.

World

Many Sunni Arabs had wanted a stronger showing by secularists, who they now hope will bring cross-sectarian balance to any coalition government that could be formed by Shi’ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

“These election results show that there is a Shi’ite wave in the region which threatens Arab security in the region. Iran has a hidden role in the Arab region and it supports Shi’ite elements in the area, particularly in Iraq,” said Magid Mazloum from the Center for Gulf Studies in Cairo.

“Sunnis in Iraq are a scattered minority stuck between Shi’ites on the one hand and Kurds on the other. This is bound to create instability in the country.”

Early election results showed Maliki pulling ahead on Sunday in an election Iraqis hoped would end years of sectarian strife, but a divided vote suggested long and fraught talks to form a government are ahead.

But the overall picture, reflecting a nation fragmented by decades of sectarian and ethnic conflict, was still incomplete a week after the vote. Results released so far represent just over a quarter of 12 million votes cast, and may change.

Sunni-led Arab countries, particularly in the Gulf where there are significant and marginalized Shi’ite minorities, worry about the repercussions of Iranian influence in Iraq. They are concerned that the Shi’ite majority is trying to deprive Iraq’s once dominant Sunnis of their fair share of power.

They fear meddling by Shi’ite non-Arab Iran in Iraq, an Arab country with a Shi’ite Muslim majority, could incite their own Shi’ite populations and that sectarian instability in Iraq could spill over.

“The big worry for us is that such a divided and sectarian Iraq is easily penetrated by regional powers and here of course Iran comes as the biggest and meddling regional power,” said Emirati analyst Abdul-Khaleq Abdullah.

“That really does not settle very nicely with the GCC, the smaller Gulf countries,” he added, referring to a bloc of six Gulf Arab states, including top oil exporter Saudi Arabia.

The outcome of Iraq’s first parliamentary poll since 2005 will shape its future as its stability is tested by an upcoming U.S. troop withdrawal and political struggles undermining Iraq’s efforts to re-establish itself on the world stage.

FRAGILE DEMOCRACY

While Maliki’s State of Law bloc appeared to be ahead in seven of 18 provinces, the secularist Iraqiya list headed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shi’ite, was leading in five.

The Iraqi National Alliance (INA), Maliki’s main competitor and led by a party with close ties to Iran, trailed close behind. Maliki would likely get first go at forming a government.

“From my point of view I hope they mix the authorities together. It’s the best choice they have … That’s why a coalition would be a good thing,” said Yasser Ahmed Ali, 28, an Emirati production engineer.

Final results are not expected for weeks.

“The new Iraq will be an imbalanced Iraq. Results show Shi’ites in the lead,” said Abdullah al-Ashaal, former assistant to Egypt’s minister of foreign affairs.

“Such results are in line of what Iran wants and the Shi’ite coalitions seem to be with Iran.”

Few Arabs thought that elections in Iraq would put pressure on other Arab governments to give voices to their own citizens. But Saudi commentator Abdullah bin Bijad al-Oteiby said the vote showed fragile but growing democracy there.

“Everyone knows that Iraq is still a stage for regional and international influences, but the Iraqi citizen’s awareness of the vote’s value has increased,” he wrote in a column in Okaz newspaper.

Western diplomats say Riyadh, the leading political player in the Gulf, fears Iraq’s democracy inspiring Saudis to question the system of government in the absolute monarchy.

In Kuwait, with often tense ties to Iraq, said it did not matter whether the government was led by Sunnis or Shi’ites.

“Any result of a democratic process in Iraq is a gain for us and the region,” said Ali al-Baghli, Kuwaiti political analyst and former oil minister.

“Kuwait was threatened by Iraq several times when it was under a Sunni ruler (Saddam Hussein). It was Sunni Iraq that threatened Kuwait and it was Sunni Iraq that invaded Kuwait,” he added.

(Additional reporting by Raissa Kasolowsky and Rania Oteify in Dubai, Eman Goma in Kuwait, Marwa Awad in Cairo and Ulf Laessing in Riyadh; Writing by Cynthia Johnston; Editing by Samia Nakhoul)

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A week on, Maliki pulls ahead in Iraq race

March 16, 2010 By Leave a Comment

(Reuters) – Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki pulled ahead on Sunday in early results of an election Iraqis hoped would end years of sectarian strife, but a divided vote suggested long and fraught talks to form a government are ahead.

World

Early results showed Maliki’s State of Law bloc ahead in seven of 18 provinces, with the Iraqiya list headed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi in second place, leading in five.

The Iraqi National Alliance (INA), Maliki’s main competitor among Iraq’s Shi’ite majority, trailed close behind, the last of three blocs leading a divided vote that reflects a nation fragmented by decades of sectarian and ethnic conflict.

The outcome of Iraq’s first parliamentary poll since 2005 will shape its future as nascent stability is tested by the coming U.S. troop withdrawal and political struggles undermining Iraq’s efforts to re-establish itself on the world stage.

Maliki, who many Iraqis credit for improving security, won almost twice as many votes as the INA in southern Basra, ground zero for a wave of new investment into Iraq’s rich oil sector.

Allawi’s Iraqiya, a secularist, cross-sectarian list, was a distance third in Basra, but initial results showed him sweeping western Anbar, a stronghold for minority Sunnis whose long political dominance ended with Saddam Hussein’s ouster in 2003.

Allawi, a secular Shi’ite, also galvanized support among Sunni Arab voters in northern Nineveh, still gripped by a tenacious Sunni Islamist insurgency.

The early results represent more than 3 million votes of about 12 million cast. Final results are not expected for weeks.

Anxious politicians have criticized Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) for delaying results for days, heightening tension and drawing attention to charges of fraud.

Maliki, in an address to the National Security Council on national television, acknowledged that the March 7 vote had some problems but said that no election had “zero violations.”

“There was manipulation,” he said. “But it does not change the results.”

Allawi’s Iraqiya list has put forward a long list of complaints about fraud, including ballots found in the garbage and more than 200,000 soldiers who were unable to vote because their names did not appear on official rosters.

IHEC officials say almost 2,000 complaints were logged, far less than in provincial elections last year. The United Nations, which has been coaching IHEC before and after the vote, has downplayed the complaints.

HARD-BOILED POLITICS

Even before a complete national picture emerges, political maneuvering has already kicked into high gear. While Maliki may have fared well, no bloc is expected to win an outright majority and Maliki would likely be forced to ally with other groups.

Both Allawi and the INA have held meetings with minority Kurds, who may prove kingmakers of the day, and Arab politicians are reaching across party lines to explore possible alliances.

While it is too early to say who the ruling coalition may include, a strong showing for Maliki could weaken demands from resentful rivals that he be barred from a second term.

Abdul Hadi al-Hasani, a senior State of Law politician, said State of Law was considering alliance with Kurds and with the INA. Neither had it ruled out allying with Allawi, he said.

Allawi has been a fierce critic of Maliki, especially when the prime minister supported a ban of hundreds of candidates suspected of ties to Saddam’s Baath party, including a senior Sunni candidate on Allawi’s list.

Even such animosity may not be an obstacle to alliance in the hard-boiled politics that has characterized post-2003 Iraq.

Yahya al-Kubaisy, a researcher at the Iraq Institute for Strategic Studies, warned that a government excluding Iraqiya risked further alienating Sunnis. “If this happens we must expect a return of violence to Iraq,” he said.

A list including two powerful Kurdish parties, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Kurdish President Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), are sure to try to extract concessions on the disputed oil city of Kirkuk, which they claim as their own.

The parties dominated Kurdish provinces, but they faced an unprecedented challenge from the reform-minded Goran group.

Khaled Suleiman, an analyst in northern Iraq, said that despite the new fissure in Kurdish politics, Kurdish parties would speak with a single voice in Baghdad, “especially on issues related to Kurdish destiny.”

The presidency may be another bargaining chip.

Kurds have reacted angrily to assertions from some Arab politicians, including Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, a Sunni Arab, that Iraq’s next president should be an Arab.

They have again put forward Talabani, an elder statesmen and perhaps the most widely embraced Kurdish politician.

“We further believe that the people of Kurdistan, as a major component of Iraq, must be represented,” a statement from the office of the Kurdistan president said.

(Additional reporting by Aseel Kami, Waleed Ibrahim, Suadad al-Salhy and Sherko Raouf in Sulaimaniya; Writing by Missy Ryan and Jim Loney; Editing by Matthew Jones)

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Iraq’s Maliki risks Sunni ire if he shuns Allawi

March 16, 2010 By Leave a Comment

(Reuters) – Iraq’s Shi’ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki may get first go at forming a government, early election results show, but Sunnis will fume if he cuts out his secular rival Iyad Allawi, the man most of them voted for.

World

The March 7 vote for a 325-seat parliament has reshaped a fractured Iraqi political landscape which is likely to undergo further shifts in tough coalition bargaining that lies ahead.

Maliki’s State of Law coalition leads in seven of Iraq’s 18 provinces, with Allawi’s Iraqiya list ahead in five. The Iraqi National Alliance (INA), dominated by Shi’ite Islamist factions, and a Kurdish alliance are each in front in three provinces.

The Kurdish alliance was slightly behind Iraqiya in the disputed city of Kirkuk, while Goran, a Kurdish reform movement, eroded its hegemony in the autonomous northern Kurdistan region.

The overall picture is incomplete, with results released so far representing just over a quarter of 12 million votes cast, and may change, particularly in Baghdad and Kirkuk.

But politicians hoping to govern Iraq as U.S. troops prepare to leave are already jostling for possible coalition partners.

Maliki’s potential allies include INA, led by the Shi’ite Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (ISCI), and the Kurdish parties, as well as Iraqiya. But these groups might join forces to thwart his return to power. Rival blocs may dissolve and re-form.

“It’s going to be another wild ride to see which way it goes,” said David Newton, a former U.S. envoy to Iraq. “Iraqis seem to be able to solve things at 10 minutes after midnight.”

He said Sunnis would take it very badly if Maliki moved toward ISCI — viewed by many of them as a proxy of Iran. They favor Allawi, a secular Shi’ite who led a transitional 2004-05 government and who looks poised to be a major player again.

Yahya al-Kubaisy, a researcher at the Iraq Institute for Strategic Studies, said a government excluding Iraqiya risked fuelling resentment felt by the Sunni minority since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion ended its entrenched grip on power.

“If this happens, we must expect a return of violence to Iraq,” he said.

A bloody Sunni insurgency against U.S. and Iraqi troops only calmed after local tribes turned against al Qaeda Islamists, joining forces with a ramped-up U.S. military presence.

Maliki based his re-election campaign partly on improved security after the sectarian carnage of 2006-07, and on plans for reconstruction to be funded from oil deals his government signed with foreign firms to unlock Iraq’s vast energy wealth.

RESONANT MESSAGE

His message struck a chord with many voters in Baghdad despite a series of deadly bombings by al Qaeda-linked militants that has hit government targets in the capital since August.

“Maliki is doing fantastically well in Baghdad and most places south of it, but dismally in (Sunni-dominated areas) to the north of the Iraqi capital,” said Iraq expert Reidar Visser.

Iraq could wind up with a prime minister whose party had won only one or two percent of the vote in the Sunni heartland of Anbar and the volatile northern province of Mosul, he said.

“Allawi is doing better in Shi’ite areas than Maliki is doing in Sunni areas, but he may get a smaller total number of deputies and will therefore need more coalition partners to form a government,” Visser argued.

He said Maliki’s support for a pre-election move to bar hundreds of candidates for alleged links to Saddam Hussein’s now outlawed Baath party had alienated many Sunnis. “The de-Baathification campaign has clearly reduced his ability to rise above sectarianism and act as a national leader.”

Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at Queen Mary, University of London, predicted that Maliki would rely on Shi’ite support in his quest for a coalition that could keep him in power, rather than on some form of cross-sectarian nationalism.

“Given his behavior during the campaign, I would bet on sectarianism and some form of alliance with all or elements of INA,” Dodge said, referring to Maliki’s Shi’ite former allies.

Maliki far outpolled INA in the southern oil city of Basra, where he sent troops to combat Shi’ite militia in 2008.

Aqil Abdul Hussein, a Basra University professor, said the results so far were predictable. “They reflect the feelings of Basra residents, who have taken note of progress and security improvements over the past two years.”

The vote in Kirkuk, where Allawi’s list edged ahead, could damage the longstanding Kurdish claim that the oil city belongs to Kurdistan — although the Kurds are sure to try to use coalition bargaining to wrest concessions on the issue.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Kurdish President Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) faced an unprecedented challenge to their hold on the Kurdish vote from the reform-minded Goran group.

Khaled Suleiman, an analyst in northern Iraq, said the Kurds would speak with one voice in Baghdad, despite the rise of Goran, “especially on issues related to Kurdish destiny such as recovering Kirkuk and the issue of Peshmerga (Kurdish forces).”

He said the Kurds would again play kingmakers in Iraqi national politics. “No government can be formed without Kurds.”

(Additional reporting by the Baghdad bureau; editing by Robin Pomeroy)

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Iraqi civilian deaths jump in February

March 2, 2010 By Leave a Comment

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – The civilian death toll in Iraq jumped to 211 people compared with the previous month, officials said on Monday, a sign of rising violence in the run-up to a March 7 parliamentary election.

World

Overall violence in Iraq has fallen in the last two years, but a series of blasts in recent months shattered the peace before a national vote, seen as a crucial test as Iraq emerges from years of war, sanctions and sectarian slaughter.

In January, 135 people died violent deaths.

On February 5, twin car bombs killed at least 40 people and wounded 145 others in Iraq’s holy city of Kerbala as hundreds of thousands of Shi’ite pilgrims observed a religious rite.

Sunni Islamist insurgents such as al Qaeda and members of Saddam Hussein’s outlawed Baath party are still capable of staging devastating attacks.

The attacks appear aimed to undermine Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s Shi’ite-led government before the parliamentary election and highlight the shortcomings of the security forces.

At least 100,000 Iraqis have been killed in the more than 6-1/2 years since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, according to www.iraqbodycount.org. Some groups put the toll much higher.

(Reporting by Baghdad bureau; Editing by Rania El Gamal)

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