The U.N. Security Council remains divided over how to respond to North Korea’s rocket launch, two days after the missile flew over Japan.

Following is what might happen next in the crisis.

WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE UNITED NATIONS?

Diplomatic sources said the most that can be expected from the Security Council is a call to tighten existing sanctions on North Korea and a statement of concern over the launch.

China, which shares a long border with the North and is the closest Pyongyang can claim as a major ally, would be the key player in tightening existing sanctions. But Beijing is reluctant to do so because it fears taking action that might destabilise the impoverished North.

U.N. sanctions were imposed after North Korea conducted a nuclear test and other missile exercises in 2006. The punishment includes financial sanctions as well as a ban on the trade in any material that could be used in the North’s weapons of mass destruction programmes.

North Korea has threatened to quit six-party nuclear talks and restart its plant that makes plutonium if it is punished for launching a rocket many saw as a disguised long-range ballistic missile test.

WHAT SORT OF PROVOCATIONS MIGHT BE IN STORE?

North Korea, which has a history of using its military threat to squeeze concessions from major powers, may boycott the six-way nuclear disarmament talks if it is punished. It has done this several times. Since there is little momentum now to resume talks among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States, a boycott might not cause much damage to the often-delayed process that began in 2003.

A more provocative move would be if North Korea restarted its Soviet-era Yongbyon nuclear plant, which was being dismantled under a disarmament-for-aid deal it reached with the five powers in 2005.

The North has mostly implemented steps meant to put the plant out of business for at least a year. But proliferation experts said it may look to restart the facility that separates arms-grade plutonium from spent fuel rods. It may take as little as three months to resume operations at this facility, they said.

WHAT ABOUT ANOTHER NUCLEAR TEST?

North Korea’s propaganda has used the launch to herald the country’s technical achievements and rally national pride. This may mean there is little need for a nuclear test to rally the masses behind leader Kim Jong-il’s “military first” doctrine.

But experts said since the North’s only nuclear test in October 2006 was just a partial success, another is inevitable because it needs one to see if it has built a better bomb design.

Another nuclear test would be one of the biggest cards North Korea could play. It would be done at a time to garner maximum political effect, analysts said.

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE NUCLEAR TALKS?

The sputtering six-party talks are likely headed for more delay. The missile launch changed the dynamics by increasing the North’s leverage in the discussions, experts said, which could lead Pyongyang to try to water down some existing obligations and resist calls from the five dialogue partners to agree to a nuclear inspection system, if it shows up at all.

North Korea may also try to set up separate, bilateral missile talks with the United States, as it did after sending a Taepodong-1 missile over Japan in 1998, in an attempt to win concessions from new U.S. President Barack Obama and isolate Washington from allies South Korea and Japan.

WHAT ABOUT UNILATERAL MEASURES?

Japan is looking to extend and perhaps broaden its existing sanctions but that will not cause much pain for Pyongyang because the economic influence is so small.

South Korea’s conservative government halted unconditional aid last year when it took office. This aid had a value equal to about 5 percent of the North’s annual economy. The South could shut a joint factory park located just north of their heavily armed border that supplies Pyongyang’s leaders with cash, but Seoul so far has rejected that idea.

The United States may consider placing North Korea back on its terrorism blacklist. This could hurt its international trade and limit its ability to tap into global finance.

WILL NORTH KOREA TEST MORE MISSILES?

Impoverished North Korea is unlikely to fire another Taepodong-2 long-range missile soon due to the high cost.

Pyongyang will likely refrain from testing its mid-range ballistic missiles because that would undermine its argument that Sunday’s launch was for the peaceful purpose of putting a satellite into orbit.

It may, however, test-fire short-range missiles to raise tension with South Korea. The North has said it would see Seoul’s plan to join a U.S. initiative to halt the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as an act of war and may feel it needs to raise tension with its rich neighbour in response.