Mudslinging and corruption scandals are drowning out policy debate before South Africa’s parliamentary election, with a new opposition party seemingly out of its depth and little talk of how to keep Africa’s biggest economy attractive to investors in the global financial crisis.

Less than two months before the election, the new Congress of the People is promising change but is unlikely to make an impact, and there is virtually no discussion of how any party plans to tackle widespread violent crime and poverty.

Nelson Mandela’s appearance at an election rally with ruling ANC leader Jacob Zuma triggered accusations that the elderly anti-apartheid hero’s health was risked for political purposes.

The African National Congress, in power for 15 years, is widely expected to win the April 22 vote and make Zuma president despite a renewed graft case that has dogged him for years.

But a new high profile corruption scandal that ruined ANC spokesman Carl Niehaus has focused attention on the party’s record as a crucial time, especially after it stuck by him.

Niehaus has admitted he forged letters while in a former government job and racked up huge debts to fund a lavish lifestyle.

The Congress of the People (COPE), formed of ANC dissidents, has vowed to break the ANC’s decades-long dominance and improve the country’s image.

COPE, however, lacks resources and political savvy and is already suffering from internal power struggles, analysts say. It was created out of anger with the ANC after the party pushed Zuma’s rival Thabo Mbeki out of the presidency and has made the same vague promises as the ANC over a range of issues.

“COPE doesn’t come with pristine legitimacy,” said Susan Booysen, political analyst at Witwatersrand University.

While that makes it unlikely that the ANC will come under any serious pressure to reform anytime soon, there may be long-term consequences.

Independent political analyst Nic Borain says ANC graft cases are unlikely to rattle investors for now. But one case after another may erode their confidence.

“The template that we have historically used to understand South African politics, I think we have had to throw out,” he said.

“Niehaus is a nobody to the markets. But a thousand Niehauses and a Jacob Zuma, you add them all up, it creates an atmosphere and a kind of environment that ultimately puts a premium on investing in the country”.

RUTHLESS POLITICS

Politics often overshadow problems that South Africans hope the new administration will tackle. For one, millions of poor blacks still live in grim townships, reminders of the apartheid the ANC so bravely fought.

And there are no signs of fresh policies that can help them.

The front page of the daily Star newspaper on Tuesday carried a new round of the scathing personal attacks that have come to characterise South African politics.

It said opposition Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille had called ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema an “uncircumcised boy”, and ANC Treasurer-General Mathews Phosa hit back by saying she should think about the man she is sleeping with before making such remarks.

COPE, meanwhile, has chosen a methodist bishop, Mvume Dandala, as its presidential candidate, portraying itself as the moral saviour of South Africa. But being a man of the faith may not help a political novice survive South Africa’s increasingly ruthless public arena.

Editorials raised serious questions about Dandala’s abilities just days after his candidacy was announced.

Analysts say he is the product of internal party strife, a compromise designed to keep the newly born COPE together, not someone with grass roots support and vision.

“I think it was a foolish thing to do to thrust an unknown man in as your presidential candidate two months before the election. Nobody knows him. And I don’t think they are going to have time to get to know him,” said veteran political commentator Allister Sparks.

“I think it reveals a high degree of political ineptitude on their part.”

COPE could break the ANC’s two-thirds majority in parliament, stopping it from being able to sweep through constitutional changes. That won’t be nearly enough to even touch the ANC’s foundations.

It hasn’t stopped the ANC from focusing on main election battlegrounds like the Eastern Cape. That’s where Mandela appeared alongside Zuma at a party rally.

The televised sight of the frail 90-year-old statesmen being helped out of a car and onto a stage unleashed a barrage of accusations that the ANC had exploited him, more criticism the party could do without as the poll approaches. But the event had its political logic.

“Mandela’s endorsement can be used to show that despite new leadership, the ANC remains a party of heritage, continuation, and what has come before — the spirit of its historical leadership, legacy, and purpose remains alive and well,” said Mark Schroeder, Sub-Saharan Africa analyst at risk analysis company Stratfor.
Michael Georgy