JGB 10-yr yield hits 7-yr low after Bernanke, auction

TOKYO, July 22 (Reuters) – Japanese government bonds rallied on Friday, with the benchmark 10-year yield hitting its lowest in seven years, after testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested low interest rates would remain in place for a long time.

Bonds were given a further boost after a sale of 20-year debt attracted strong demand.

The 10-year yield JP10YTN=JBTC dropped 3 basis points to 1.055 percent after brushing 1.045 percent, its lowest since August 2003.

September 10-year futures 2JGBv1 climbed 0.17 point to 141.87 after hitting 142.08, their highest in seven years.

“Bernanke’s testimony represented a new chapter for the bond market, as it suggested the Fed is bracing for tougher economic conditions than it anticipated,” said a fund manager at a domestic investment firm.

“Any resulting easing by the Fed would come at a time when central banks in Europe and Japan are strengthening their easing rhetoric. This will add to flattening pressure on the yield curve, possibly taking the (JGB) 10-year yield below 1 percent.”

Bernanke, delivering the Fed’s semiannual report to Congress on monetary policy on Wednesday, said the economy faced “unusually uncertain” prospects and the Fed was ready to take further steps to bolster growth if needed, but also that policy makers believed the economy was still on a path to recovery. [ID:nWALLIE6DU]

The Fed chairman’s testimony helped boost demand for the 1.1 trillion yen ($12.6 billion) of 20-year JGBs sold on Thursday, market players said.

The usual rules of engagement were reversed on Thursday as dealers bought superlong bonds ahead of the auction — instead of selling to hedge their positions as they usually do — to stock their inventories in anticipation of strong post-auction demand.

The auction’s bid-to-cover ratio, a gauge of demand, fell to 4.46 from a record high 4.60 at the previous offering in June, although this was still much higher than 3.31, the average from the past 12 sales. [ID:nMOFGV5002] TENDER01

The robust auction outcome reflected the wider variety of investors getting involved in superlong maturities, said Keiko Onogi, a senior JGB strategist at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets.

“The relatively low coupon didn’t appear to dampen demand from buyers getting involved in the superlongs for trading purposes. These investors represent a change in demographics, joining the traditional buy-and-hold investors of superlongs.”

The 1.8 percent coupon on the new 20-years was the lowest in six years.

Superlongs have long been the domain of buy-and-hold investors like life insurers, but recent data has pointed to a growing presence of investors like regional banks, “shinkin” co-op banks and agricultural institutions.

Bond investors such as domestic banks have been putting more money to work in superlongs recently to boost returns as yields at the shorter end have fallen to multi-year lows.

Superlongs also present investors with opportunities for potential capital gains due to increased volatility, traders said.

On a monthly basis, Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield has been declining since April, tugged lower by factors including Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, prospects of a global economic slowdown and hopes for fiscal austerity at home.

While the influence of the debt crisis and fiscal austerity hopes have receded, prospects of an economic slowdown have been kept alive following a string of downbeat indicators from the United States.

Market focus has recently shifted to the Federal Reserve and whether it will maintain a low rate policy longer than expected.

The 20-year yield JP20YTN=JBTC declined 4 basis points to 1.765 percent and the 30-year yield JP30YTN=JBTC also dropped 4 basis points, to 1.830 percent.

The five-year/20-year yield spread tightened by 3 basis points to 143.5 basis points. It has tightened by about 14 basis points over the past month. (Editing by Joseph Radford)

EURO GOVT-Bunds higher after Bernanke

July 22 (Reuters) – German Bunds rose on Thursday, tracking overnight moves in U.S. Treasuries after the Federal Reserve Chairman said that the world’s largest economy faced “unusually uncertain” prospects, prompting a sell-off in riskier assets.

Ben Bernanke said the Fed stands ready to ease monetary policy further if the budding U.S. economic recovery withers [ID:nN21165172].

Two year US Treasury yields US2YT=RR hit a record low in the wake of the testimony and ten-year yields US10YT=RR held near 15 month lows.

“Those looking for imminent quantitative easing were probably disappointed, but the ‘uncertain outlook’ and talk of taking action is pretty dovish,” a trader.

At 0603 GMT, September Bund futures FGBLc1 were 40 ticks higher at 129.30 having risen above the 21 day moving average at 129.10 at the market open.

Traders were looking to July’s high of 129.54 as the next key resistance level, to break out of the recent trading range.

Two-year bond yields DE2YT=TWEB were 1.8 basis points lower at 0.706 percent, with 10-year yields DE10YT=TWEB almost 4 basis points lower at 2.599 percent .

Euro zone flash manufacturing and services PMIs are released from 0658 GMT, with the regional manufacturing index expected to slip to 55.2 from 55.6 in June and the services index seen falling to 55.0 from 55.5.

Thai c.bank sees more policy tightening

July 15 (Reuters) – The Bank of Thailand is likely to tighten monetary policy further after Wednesday’s rate increase, Deputy Governor Bandid Nijathaworn said on Thursday.

“Yesterday’s policy rate rise will probably not be the only one … There is a chance that the rate will move higher in the future,” he told reporters.

“But we cannot tell what level it will go to, depending on economic indicators and inflation,” Bandid said.

The central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.50 percent from a record low of 1.25 percent on Wednesday, the first increase since the global financial crisis, citing the recovery in the economy and rising inflationary pressure across Asia. [ID:nSGE65103A]. (Reporting by Boontiwa Wichakul; Writing by Orathai Sriring; Editing by Alan Raybould)

Weaker Polish zloty no reason to raise rates-report

July 12 (Reuters) – The losses in the Polish zloty are not enough to raise interest rates and the currency is set to strengthen long term, Monetary Policy Council member Jerzy Hausner was quoted as saying on Monday.

“If we were seeing an appreciation of the zloty, then this would naturally be weakening the inflation pressure. Then the motivation to raise the interest rate would be smaller,” Hausner told daily Gazeta Wyborcza in an interview.

“But the current weakening of the zloty is not enough of an argument to rise rates.” (Writing by Gabriela Baczynska; Editing by Neil Fullick)

Indonesia c.bank says no change to policy this yr

July 9 (Reuters) – Indonesia’s inflation is likely to slow down in the fourth quarter of this year, and so the central bank will not change monetary policy in 2010, acting central governor Darmin Nasution said on Friday.

His latest remarks were in line with his previous remarks that inflation may ease in coming months. A central bank statement issued after its monthly rate meeting on Monday, however, said price pressure could pick up later this year. (Reporting by Adriana Nina Kusuma; Editing by Neil Chatterjee)

Fed’s Evans: monetary accommodation still called for

Reuters) – The U.S. recovery is underway, but inflation is so low and unemployment is so high that the Federal Reserve’s super easy monetary policy is still needed, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Wednesday.

“The recovery is definitely on,” Evans said in a rare live appearance on CNBC. But U.S. housing data has “fallen off a cliff” and jobs gains have slowed markedly, he said.

Inflation is underrunning his 2.0 percent guideline for the next three years or more, and the recovery, while not faltering, is slow enough that it will take a number of years before unemployment reaches an acceptable level, he said.

“We are underrunning our dual mandate,” he said, referring to the Fed’s twofold goal of maintaining price stability and full employment. “I think the policy accommodation is called for.”

The Fed cut its target for overnight lending between banks to near zero in December 2008, and on June 23 reiterated its vow to keep rates exceptionally low for “an extended period.”

Meanwhile Europe’s debt woes pose a risk to U.S. growth, and businesses in the U.S. are still are responding to “replacement demand” rather than the “expansionary demand” needed to boost economic growth. The U.S. economy will likely grow about 3.5 percent this year, he said.

Within the Fed, Evans said, some of the most contentious debates center around the outlook for inflation, with some worried about the prospect of prices rising too fast, and others worried about a slowdown in price increases known as disinflation.

Evans said he himself is concerned about inflation, but only in the long-term.

If there is a need to adjust monetary policy in either direction, he said, “I’ll be there.”

The Fed’s policy-making Federal Open Market Committee next meets in mid-August.

Evans defended the U.S. government’s giant fiscal stimulus package last year, saying it was effective in turning around both the economy and the psychology.

Providing more stimulus at this point in the recovery would be “pretty tough” he said.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir)

RBI FOCUS-India’s central bank prefers tight leash on cash

June 29 (Reuters) – India’s central bank will keep cash conditions tight in coming weeks to keep a lid on inflation expectations, sources at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said, a strong indication that it will keep policy rates on hold until its next review in late July.

A big chunk of cash left India’s banking system this month when the government auctioned telecom licences, tipping the banking system into a net deficit position.

Banks which had been placing their surpluses with the central bank every day turned borrowers. The banking system was on average borrowing around 500 billion Indian rupees ($10.8 billion) every day in June, a big swing from a surplus of 500 billion rupees until early May.

That tightness, however, takes some of the pressure off the RBI from having to raise rates before a July 27 meeting to keep a lid on inflation that has accelerated into the double digits. One deputy governor of the central bank said on Monday the probability of an off-cycle rate increase was very low, given the daily stream of economic developments globally and in India.

“Probability of rate action before policy is very low,” said deputy governor K.C. Chakrabarty, who is not directly linked to monetary policy at the RBI but still has influence on the board.

Central bank sources also told Reuters the RBI is comfortable with the cash strain, which acts as a brake on inflation.

“RBI would like to keep liquidity on the tighter side going ahead as it helps in inflation control,” a RBI official said. “There is no liquidity stress visible on market rates. The call rate has not gone up sharply above the repo rate,” the official said.

However, RBI Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said recently the central bank would take steps to ease the cash strain if existing measures do not have their desired effect, and investors appear to be reading those remarks at face value — perhaps mistakenly.

“What he meant was in case call rates go through the roof, or there is a large volatility in short-term rates then we could take some measures,” the central bank source said.

MARKET BETS ON EASIER CASH

The interest rate swap market does not suggest a sustained period of tight liquidity. The overnight floating rate benchmark for swaps, the MIBOR, is at 5.5 percent — above fixed rates for tenors ranging up to 11 months.

Three-month certificate of deposit (CD) rates last week fell to around 6.30 percent from 6.45 percent in early June, Thomson Reuters data show.

Cash conditions tightened this month, pushing up the call money rate to a three-month high of 5.50 percent, a quarter point higher than the repo rate at which banks borrow from the RBI.

Outflows towards the 3G and broadband spectrum licences totaled $21.6 billion, with a further $7.6 billion going out as advance tax payments this month — a hoard that New Delhi may not be able to spend fast enough to get that back into circulation.

That, coupled with the RBI’s reluctance to taking more steps to infuse cash given inflation worries, will mean the shortfall in liquidity will persist into July. Banks borrowed 829.15 billion rupees on Thursday from the RBI’s daily repo window, the highest since cash tightened in June.

“We may continue to be in liquidity deficit mode for most of July as government spending has not been very high,” said Anindya Dasgupta, head of treasury at Barclays Capital in Mumbai. “I don’t expect the spending to pick up that much in July.”

Banks are also barely using existing funding windows offered by the RBI, an indication that funding is not overly strained.

For instance, the RBI offered to buy back bonds worth 200 billion rupees in the past two weeks, but banks tendering bonds demanded such high prices that it managed to buy back only 91 billion rupees worth of paper.

“If banks indeed needed money, they would have sold the bonds to us at market levels. But they are not desperate,” the RBI official said.

To some extent, the relative dovishness in the market stems from RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao’s comments indicating he is not moving from the bank’s calibrated exit stance.

The effective rate for markets has moved up from the reverse repo to the repo, Subbarao said on June 18, referring to the monetary policy corridor and the fact that banks were now borrowing rather than placing cash with RBI. That acts as a tightening, Subbarao said. [ID:nSGE65H0AD].

Market participants reckon there will therefore be no rate rise before July 27, although a rise in fuel prices announced last week raises the odds somewhat for a move before then. [ID:nSGE65O0AS]

Subbarao also said the repo rate will be the operative rate for the next few weeks, indicating cash conditions will remain tight and the RBI would be doing more lending than accepting of cash in its monetary operations window.

Hitendra Dave, head of global markets at HSBC, said that even beyond July he expected a modest average liquidity surplus of around 200 billion rupees a day. (Editing by Kim Coghill)

PBOC adviser sees yuan rising 3 pct vs dlr in 2010

June 24 (Reuters) – The yuan is likely to rise about 3 percent against the dollar by the end of this year, assuming the euro stays around current levels against the U.S. dollar, Li Daokui, a central bank adviser, said on Thursday.

Li, one of three academic members of the People’s Bank of China monetary policy advisory committee, said the reform of the exchange rate regime announced at the weekend would help tame inflation.

But, in an interview with Reuters, Li said depegging of the yuan would have a limited impact on China’s interest rate decision-making.

Li, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, also said freeing up the yuan was unlikely to trigger big inflows or outflows of capital.

The PBOC said on Saturday that it would once again let the yuan move more freely after having kept the currency more or less pegged to the dollar for two years to provide stability for exporters during the global downturn.

The yuan CNY=CFXS drifted slightly lower on Thursday to around 6.8141 per dollar, representing a rise of about 0.2 percent since the long-awaited policy shift. [CNY/] (Reporting by Chen Min and Alan Wheatley; Editing by Chris Lewis)

BOJ may debate Europe debt but unlikely to change policy

(Reuters) – The Bank of Japan is likely to discuss next week what Europe’s debt troubles mean for its own fragile economic recovery and is expected to conclude that the crisis will not have a big impact, allowing it to keep monetary policy unchanged.

Japan

The central bank is also expected to announce details of a new loan scheme aimed at redirecting money to industries with growth potential, such as the size and length of loans to banks.

It is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 0.1 percent.

Here are possible outcomes:

UNVEILS DETAILS OF LOAN PLAN, NO MONETARY EASING

Probability: High

The BOJ last month outlined a program under which it offers one-year loans at 0.1 percent interest to banks that will fund projects in industries with growth potential. More details of the scheme are likely to be released after the meeting.

The BOJ has said the scheme is a long-term approach to beating deflation and is not monetary policy. The bank therefore will not set a target on the total amount of loans to be extended but instead set a cap of 1 trillion or 2 trillion yen ($11 billion or $22 billion), so that the cash does not directly affect interest rates.

The BOJ will allow the loans to be rolled over several times so private banks can borrow for several years at the overnight call rate. It hopes to start lending from July or August at the latest.

Market reaction: Money market rates may briefly fall if the size of the loans to be extended is bigger than expected.

NO ANNOUNCEMENT OF LOAN SCHEME DETAILS

Probability: Unlikely

The BOJ has been asking private banks to see what kind of loan scheme best suits their needs. If the requests require big changes to the scheme, full details of it may not make it in time for the rate review.

Even if the details are worked out in time, a decision may be delayed until July if the board cannot reach a consensus.

The sticking point is the total size of loans and how to define areas with “growth potential.” Too broad a definition could put the BOJ’s balance sheet at risk, while making it too narrow would make banks reluctant to use the scheme.

Some BOJ officials, including board member Miyako Suda, have stressed that the scheme needs to be designed in a way that does not expose the BOJ to credit risk.

Market reaction: A delay in announcement is unlikely to affect markets because traders expect the BOJ to come up with full details by July.

EASES POLICY FURTHER

Probability: Highly unlikely

The BOJ is increasingly alarmed over debt problems in Europe, which have hurt stocks and pushed up the yen against the euro to the dismay of some Japanese exporters.

But it does not view the fallout as big enough to alter its forecast that solid exports to Asia will keep Japan on course for a moderate recovery.

The BOJ has not ruled out easing policy further in case of market turmoil. But with rates already near zero, the BOJ is likely to save the few policy options it has left for later.

Its options include to expand a fund supply operation launched in December and expanded once in March.

Market reaction: A surprise move would push down money market rates and the short end of the bond yield curve, triggering yen selling.

(Editing by Jan Dahinten)

Too-big-to-fail issue remains challenge: SNB chief

(Reuters) – Working out measures to prevent that the failure of a big bank can cripple Switzerland’s economy remains a challenge and new rules on capital ratios and banks’ liquidity are not enough, the Swiss National Bank’s head said.

Regulatory News

“These preventive measures….are not a solution to the problem (of a too big to fail bank),” Philipp Hildebrand told a gathering of Swiss private bankers in Lausanne.

Hildebrand did not comment on monetary policy or the currency, pointing to the central bank’s policy meeting next Thursday.

Hildebrand noted that the total liabilities of Switzerland’s main banks, UBS and Credit Suisse, still represented four times Switzerland’s output, meaning the issue remains a problem that Switzerland needs to tackle.

Switzerland has introduced tougher requirements on capital and liquidity holdings as well as new rules on bankers’ pay.

However, a government commission on the too-big-to-fail issue made further far reaching proposals, which would require the large banks to change their structure so they could be broken up in the event of an insolvency.

(Reporting by Lisa Jucca and Robin Bleeker)

Too-big-to-fail issue remains challenge-SNB chief

June 11 (Reuters) – Working out measures to prevent that the failure of a big bank can cripple Switzerland’s economy remains a challenge and new rules on capital ratios and banks’ liquidity are not enough, the Swiss National Bank’s head said.

Financials

“These preventive measures….are not a solution to the problem (of a too big to fail bank),” Philipp Hildebrand told a gathering of Swiss private bankers in Lausanne.

Hildebrand did not comment on monetary policy or the currency, pointing to the central bank’s policy meeting next Thursday.

Hildebrand noted that the total liabilities of Switzerland’s main banks, UBS (UBSN.VX)(UBS.N) and Credit Suisse(CSGN.VX), still represented four times Switzerland’s output, meaning the issue remains a problem that Switzerland needs to tackle.

Switzerland has introduced tougher requirements on capital and liquidity holdings as well as new rules on bankers’ pay.

However, a government commission on the too-big-to-fail issue made further far reaching proposals, which would require the large banks to change their structure so they could be broken up in the event of an insolvency. [ID:nLDE63L1FD]

(Reporting by Lisa Jucca and Robin Bleeker)

BoE buys 107 mln stg of corporate bonds in past week

June 11 (Reuters) – The Bank of England bought 107 million pounds of corporate bonds in the week to June 10 and sold 11 million pounds worth, taking total holdings under its secondary market scheme to 1.521 billion pounds.

The BoE said in a regular update on Friday that no purchases of commercial paper took place, leaving total holdings at 1 million pounds.

Gilt holdings remained constant at 198.275 billion pounds, purchased between March 2009 and January 2010.

The BoE completed a planned 200 billion pounds of quantitative easing asset purchases at the end of January and has given no indication it wants to change these holdings in the short term.

Sales and purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds are aimed at ensuring market liquidity and do not have a monetary policy objective.

(editing by John Stonestreet)

Japan’s Ikeda may become deputy finmin -source

(For more stories on the Japanese economy, click [ID:nECONJP])

Currencies | Bonds | Global Markets

TOKYO June 8 (Reuters) – Motohisa Ikeda, a proponent of all-out monetary easing by the Bank of Japan, has been asked to become deputy finance minister, a source close to the lawmaker told Reuters on Tuesday.

Ikeda would become one of two deputies to Yoshihiko Noda, who has been appointed finance minister.

Ikeda told Reuters in April the BOJ should target 2 percent inflation in around two years and help weaken the yen to as low as 120 to the dollar by implementing all-out monetary easing to support Japanese exporters. [ID:nTOE63F06Q]

Vice finance ministers have the right to attend BOJ monetary policy meetings as government representatives. Noda attended four BOJ meetings while he was vice finance minister and asked for the central bank’s cooperation to end deflation. (Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Chris Gallagher)

S.Korea c.bank head mum on rates before meeting

June 8 (Reuters) – South Korea’s central bank chief did not comment on interest rate policy in the text of a speech on Tuesday, just two days before its policy meeting.

Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong-soo emphasised that improving the quality of employment at small and medium-sized enterprises was important for sustained growth in Asia’s fourth-largest economy, according to the text of remarks prepared for delivery at a forum and distributed to journalists in advance.

The speech made no references to monetary policy. The Bank of Korea holds its rate review on Thursday and a survey by a local financial industry association showed on Monday almost all bond traders expect rates to stay on hold at a record low 2 percent. for a 16th consecutive month. [ID:nTOE656013] (Reporting by Yoo Choonsik; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner)

Fed’s Lockhart says US Southeast slowly recovering

Ga., June 4 (Reuters) – The U.S. Southeast, whose banks have been hardest hit by the financial crisis, is slowly edging towards economic recovery, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart said on Friday.

Bonds | Global Markets

In remarks to the Alabama Bankers Association that did not address national economic issues or monetary policy, Lockhart was cautiously optimistic about the prospects for the region he oversees.

“In general, the Southeast’s economy continues to rebound. A growing body of evidence suggests a sustainable recovery is under way,” Lockhart said. “Regionally, that recovery is not yet well established.”

Lockhart noted that of the 246 banks failures over the last three years, 73 were in his district.

Trichet: ECB not favouring French banks -TV

May 31 (Reuters) – There are no grounds to claim that the European Central Bank’s bond-buying programme would benefit especially the French banks, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Austrian television.

Bonds | Global Markets

When asked about German reports that the ECB enables above all French banks to get rid of their holdings of Greek government bonds, Trichet told Austrian national television ORF: “It’s absolutely false. All our decisions were made by the Governing Council to ensure the proper transmission of monetary policy.”

Trichet also repeated the ECB would not compromise on its price stability goal. (Reporting by Sakari Suoninen; Editing by Leslie Adler)

Fed’s Evans: euro zone crisis adds to uncertainty

May 31 (Reuters) – The U.S. economy’s recovery is well under way but the financial market turmoil over the euro zone’s debt crisis has added to uncertainty, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Monday.

Bonds

But Evans, who has no voting rights on the Fed’s interest rate-setting panel, told reporters in Seoul that there was no change in his view on the economic outlook and that accommodative monetary policy “seems to be appropriate”. (Reporting by Yoo Choonsik; Editing by Jonathan Hopfner)

RBI to come out with a report on food inflation

Kolkata, May 11 (ANI): Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn said the bank would come out with a report on food inflation in a few weeks time.

Talking to reporters here, Gokarn said that the paper would study the impact of monsoon on the food price rise and whether the rise in excessive demand for sugar, milk and pulses indicated a shift in the nutritional choices of the people.

He also said a good monsoon should augur well for the food prices.

“I have no control over the monsoons, I have no idea as to how the monsoon process will play out. We are getting initial forecast of the monsoons being normal but ultimately the process, the path of the food prices in the short term over the next few months will depend significantly how good the monsoons are,” he said.

“So, if we have a normal monsoon across the country we should see the food prices started to come down over the course of the next few months,” he added.

According to the government data, India”s annual food inflation hovered around 16.04 percent for the week ended April 24.

Inflation is spreading to non -food manufactured items, which may keep pressure on overall inflation. Last month, RBI tightened its monetary policy with a view to arresting food inflation from spreading to other sectors.

Last year, the government”s forecast of a normal monsoon proved wrong and the country grappled instead with a baking drought caused by its driest monsoon in 37 years.

Good rainfall would help India”s farm output rebound after last year”s drought, which triggered a sustained rise in inflation that boosted food prices 17.7 percent in the 12 months to April 10, and fuel prices by 12.5 percent. (ANI)

Food inflation to decline in coming months: Mukherjee

New Delhi, Apr 29 (ANI): Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said that despite the country being worried about high inflation, there are indications of a cooling off in high food prices that have been driving it.

“What is the most worrisome feature of the economy is the inflation, which agitates the entire house and the people outside the house. I share the concern of honourable members,” said Mukherjee, while speaking in the Lok Sabha on Wednesday.

Mukherjee mentioned that the inflation would ease in the next few months on indications of a good monsoon.

“Indications of softening of the food inflation are clearly visible. There has been a significant decline from the peak food inflation of over 20 percent recorded in December 2009 to 17.7 percent in March 2010,” said Mukherjee.

“The inflation in essential commodities also declined from the peak 23.8 percent in January 2010 to 19.8 percent in March 2010, it is expected that the decline would continue in the recent (sic) months uninterruptedly,” he added.

Mukherjee further said the recent moves by the country”s central bank – the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to tighten monetary policy should anchor inflationary expectations, adding that the buoyed by predictions of normal monsoon and better economic conditions, the economy is expected to reach 9 percent mark by 2011-2012.

“Going by these indications and considerations that agriculture has a set back in 2009-2010. Indian economy is expected to go around 8.5 percent during 2010-2011 and to reach 9 percent mark in 2011-2012,” said Mukherjee.

Annual wholesale price inflation in March touched a 17-month high of 9.90 percent, prompting the RBI to raise rates in April, its second such move in as many months. (ANI)

Mukherjee welcomes RBI”s monetary policy for 2010-11

New Delhi, Apr 20 (ANI): Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee welcomed the Monetary Policy for 2010-11 that was announced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday.

“Earlier today, the Governor of the RBI announced a set of new monetary policy measures. The well-balanced measures, which involve raising the repo rate, the reverse repo rate and the CCR by 25 basis points each, reflect a mature and balanced view of the needs of our economy, and I, fully endorse the measures, Mukherjee said.

“They complement well the policies of the Ministry of Finance aimed at controlling inflation and promoting sustainable growth,” he added.

He further said that these policies should have a gentle impact in tightening money in the economy and should dampen further inflationary pressures.

“The RBI has made a forecast of inflation of 5.5 per cent for the year 2010-11. Long-run inflation is very difficult to predict and is based on some statistical analysis but also on intuition,” he added.

Mukherjee said his own belief based on analysis done in his ministry is that inflation is now on a downward trajectory and in 2010-11 will be less than 5.5 per cent and, in fact, closer to four per cent with an upward bias.

“Inflation is extremely sensitive to the weather condition and how that affects agriculture and agricultural expectations. If nothing untoward happens on the weather front, my belief is that overall inflation has peaked and should be on a downward trajectory from now on,” he added.

“Some observers may worry that tightening of credit can dampen growth especially in the durable goods sector. But our analysis of industrial growth and credit off-take suggests that there is no reason for such apprehension, he said. (ANI)