UK’s Osborne says no deal with BOE’s King on low rates

uly 29 (Reuters) – British finance minister George Osborne on Thursday said there was no tacit agreement with the Bank of England’s governor Mervyn King on keeping interest rates low. (Reporting by Sumeet Desai)

Interest rate is held at record low

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The decision to hold rates and keep the pace of QE unchanged has reflected the difficulty of judging the impact of the measures just a month into the process – although Bank of England Governor Mervyn King told MPs two weeks ago that he was “mildly encouraged” by results. Skip related content
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The Bank of England has left interest rates unchanged
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The Bank’s latest credit conditions survey, however, showed lenders indicating they would make more credit available to individuals and businesses in the coming three months.

Other factors weighed up by the MPC in their two-day meeting would have included February’s surprise rise in inflation, although this was put down to the weakness of sterling sending up import prices and is likely to be a blip.

The Consumer Prices Index – which currently stands at 3.2% – is set to fall well below the Bank’s 2% target later this year as recession bears down on demand and prices. Although experts predict a fall in output during the first three months of 2009 of the same order as the 1.6% fall seen in the final quarter of 2008, surveys from manufacturing, services and construction firms have signalled that the break-neck pace of the UK’s slump into recession is at least slackening off.

The Bank of England has held interest rates unchanged at their record low of 0.5%. The decision comes after six months of cuts from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to tackle a worsening recession.

Rate-setters are now pinning hopes on an unprecedented £75 billion programme of quantitative easing (QE) – effectively printing money – to ease credit conditions. The MPC launched the strategy last month and has bought up almost £26.5 billion in Government and corporate debt so far under a three-month programme.

The committee is monitoring the impact of QE on the wider economy every month but announced no changes to the scale of the operation. The decision to hold rates and keep the pace of QE unchanged reflects the difficulty of judging the impact of the measures just a month into the process – although Bank of England Governor Mervyn King told MPs two weeks ago that he was “mildly encouraged” by results so far.

The Bank’s latest credit conditions survey, however, showed lenders indicating they would make more credit available to individuals and businesses in the coming three months. Other factors weighed up by the MPC would have included a surprise rise in inflation during February, although this was put down to the weakness of sterling sending up import prices and is likely to be a blip.

The Consumer Prices Index – which currently stands at 3.2% – is set to fall well below the Bank’s 2% target later this year as recession bears down on demand and prices.

Although experts predict a fall in output during the first three months of 2009 of the same order as the 1.6% fall seen in the final quarter of 2008, surveys from manufacturing, services and construction firms have signalled that the break-neck pace of the UK’s slump into recession is at least slackening off.

Bank set to hold rates steady

The Bank of England looks set to hold interest rates steady this week for the first time since September, as the central bank continues its 75 billion pound asset-buying programme to get the economy out of recession. Skip related content
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A man enters Britain’s Bank of England in London Enlarge photo
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The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee cut borrowing costs to a record low of 0.5 percent last month, marking the sixth straight month of rate reductions from a level of 5 percent before its October meeting.

At the same time it also said it would start quantitative easing — effectively printing money to buy assets such as gilts — in a bid to get the economy moving again, with Bank Governor Mervyn King strongly hinting there would be no more cuts.

“The official bank rate is about as low as it can go,” said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec. “Moreover, the Bank of England is still in the midst of implementing the committee’s decision last month to buy 75 billion pounds of assets.”

“No further monetary policy action looks to be on the cards for a while.”

So what are the nine members of the MPC likely to be discussing at their two-day meeting on Wednesday and Thursday?

Most likely, they will be looking at the efficacy of the QE programme so far and trying to get a feel for whether recent data does indeed point to some easing in the rate of decline of the economy, which fell into recession last year.

The Bank has so far bought more than 20 billion pounds of assets, and if it continues at this pace it could use up the 75 billion pounds by early June.

Policymakers are likely to be thinking about what assets they can buy besides gilts as the central bank has also been buying corporate bonds.

They will also be wondering whether the latest data does indeed point to the economy not deteriorating as fast as it was.

In particular, they may have been encouraged by the Bank’s credit conditions survey which showed some improvement in lending conditions even in the period before the central bank started QE.

“Our view is that the MPC will not need to expand the size of operations beyond 75 billion pounds in the absence of a fresh financial or economic shock,” said Shaw.