Brownian motion in UK polls

London, April 24 — Whether or not Gordon Brown manages to hang on as prime minister, the new British parliament that is to be inaugurated next month will look more brown than ever before. An analysis of the Black and Asian candidates’ list of the three main political parties – made available to the Hindustan Times – shows that the House of Commons could welcome at least 11 South Asian MPs, including at least six of Indian origin after May 6. The final figure is likely to be higher. Some of them will be sitting MPs defending safe seats – such as Britain’s senior Indian-origin MP Keith Vaz of the ruling Labour party and his Conservative counterpart Shailesh Vara – but there will also be a smattering of new faces. Together Labour, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have put up 131 Black and Asian candidates. In an election that may well lead to Britain’s first hung parliament since 1974, every ethnic minority vote is being wooed – it could mean the difference between forming that government and staying out. Some estimates say there are up to 113 ‘marginal seats’ where the population of Black and Asian voters is larger than candidates’ winning majorities in the last 2005 election. At least 50 of these seats are thought to be ‘very marginal’ – key battlegrounds amid nervous predictions of a slender majority for the largest party in the new parliament. Of the 131 candidates, 86 are ethnic South Asians and of them, 34 are of Indian origin. However, many have been selected – by all three parties – for constituencies where their chances of winning are remote. Among Indian-origin candidates who are likely to make it to parliament are Vaz, his sister Valerie Vaz (they will be the first Asian brother and sister lawmakers) and Virendra Sharma from Labour; Shailesh Vara and Priti Patel from the Conservative party; and Parmjit Gill of the Liberal Democrats. Two more Indian-origin Conservative candidates – Alok Sharma and Paul Uppal – are said to be in with a chance. In the wider South Asian context, Labour is likely to have more MPs of Pakistani origin than the Conservatives, who have selected a larger number of Indian-origin candidates in relatively safe seats. Britain currently has nine South Asians, including five who are of Indian origin, among a total of 15 Black and Asian MPs. However, both Labour and Conservatives have stoutly resisted a proposal for all-ethnic shortlists in selected urban seats – along the lines of informal all-women shortlists introduced by Tony Blair after he became prime minister in 1997. Of the three main political parties, Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats was the only leader who supported the proposal when it was tabled in parliament last year. Ironically, with the ratings heaving seismically toward the Liberal Democrats after Clegg won the first two of three televised election debates, this all-important party is likely to turn up in parliament with just one Asian MP – Parmjit Singh Gill. He is undaunted: “As a Liberal I follow in the footsteps of Dadabhai Naoroji,” said Gill, referring to the Indian National Congress founder who became the first British Asian MP in 1892. The lopsided composition of the House of Commons can sometimes find a reflection in debates about immigration that are guided by perception rather than hard data. Last week, in the middle of a poll campaign that has been largely free of race and migration rhetoric from the mainstream parties, the mayor of a town in southwest England posted a joke on Facebook: “Illegal immigrants are like sperm – millions of them come in but only one works.”

“Party leaders are useless at this,” admitted one well-regarded candidate, fighting in a constituency with a large Asian population. “It’s only the voters that can make the difference. At the end of the day, if our people don’t vote for us, then we are not going to make it.”

Riding surge in support, UK’s third party in spotlight

The leader of Britain’s third largest political party surged in popularity after a televised election debate last week but his rivals are likely to give him a much tougher time in Thursday’s next round.

Nick Clegg, head of the centrist Liberal Democrats, faced scathing attacks by Britain’s right-wing newspapers on Thursday, hours before the second leaders’ debate at 1900 GMT which will focus on foreign policy.

Clegg transformed the campaign for the May 6 election last week when he emerged as the surprise winner in the first live leaders’ debate, even giving his perennially third-ranking party a slim lead in some opinion polls over the ruling Labour Party and the main opposition Conservative Party.

Election system quirks mean Clegg’s lead is too small to sweep him to power, but his sudden rise has rattled David Cameron’s Conservatives, who have seen a 20-point opinion poll lead crumble in the last year.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos MORI poll showed a surge in support for the Lib Dems in Labour-held marginal seats which the Conservatives must win for an outright victory.

The findings indicate Britain is headed for a hung parliament, where no party has an overall majority, with the Conservatives as the largest party.

“There is only one issue that matters in this debate,” Professor Mark Wickham-Jones of Bristol University said. “Can Clegg sustain the impetus, initiative and the momentum he established last week and keep Cameron on the backfoot?”

The TV debate in the port city of Bristol will focus on foreign policy, reinvigorating the campaign after a week dominated by travel chaos caused by a volcanic ash cloud.

BALANCE OF POWER

If Clegg can again outpunch Cameron and Prime Minister Gordon Brown, it will all but guarantee a hung parliament, where the Liberal Democrats could play a pivotal role, analysts said.

“Whether or not we have a hung parliament in Britain could depend on what happens on Thursday evening,” Ben Page, chief executive of polling company Ipsos MORI, said.

It would be the first such outcome since 1974 and would fuel market worries that the new government will struggle to take the action needed to cut a record budget deficit.

In the fiscal year ending in March, Britain’s public finances suffered their worst year since World War Two, official data showed on Thursday, with public sector net borrowing at 163.4 billion pounds ($252.5 billion).

A Confederation of British Industry survey showed factory orders remained weak in April, but firms were at their most optimistic in two years about raising output in the coming months.

British jobless claims fell faster than expected last month, giving a boost to financial markets, although the upbeat message was undercut by the rise in a broader unemployment measure to a 14-year high, official data showed.

In a Guardian newspaper article, Clegg called “ludicrous” Conservative warnings that an inconclusive election result would damage Britain’s economic recovery and force it to seek help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Analysts said Clegg could expect a much harder fight in the second debate, with opponents scrutinising his policies closely.

Clegg’s party was the only one of the main three to oppose the Iraq war. All would keep British troops in Afghanistan.

Brown, whose centre-left Labour has governed since 1997, is widely regarded as the weakest TV performer. However, his record of meeting heads of state and taking a lead in areas like the global economic crisis could give him a boost.

The centre-right Conservative leader, a former TV public relations executive who failed to shine in the first debate, will be under more pressure than Brown.

Cameron, 43, has let his poll lead shrink, lacks experience on the international stage and leads a party split over whether Britain should embrace Europe, analysts said.

“For Cameron, it’s a disaster,” Wickham-Jones said. “The capacity for him to mess up is immense.” (Editing by Janet Lawrence)

Will the Tillegra Dam be NSW’s latest backflip?

No one can accuse the New South Wales Government of being afraid to admit when it gets things wrong.

It has again this week put its hand up to say it made a mistake when it decided to merge Police and Emergency Services into one so-called ‘Super department.’

The super department has now been split up after vigorous complaints.

“We are listening to stakeholders, removing [an] extra layer of bureaucracy. It’s what emergency services and police have asked for,” said the NSW Premier Kristina Keneally in a message on Twitter.

The decision comes after a long list of about-faces which include:

* the axing of the controversial CBD Metro
* the decision to abandon the sale of land belonging to Hurlstone Agricultural High School
* the scrapping of privatisation plans for Cessnock Jail
* the reversal of a policy to ask parents to pay for school bus passes
* the decision not to close the Gaden Trout Hatchery at Jindabyne,
* the exclusion of hybrid cars from a new tax on vehicles

Environmentalists are hoping the State Government will perform another backflip – and scrap the controversial Tillegra Dam in the Hunter.

It is understood the $477-million project was close to being axed by the former Premier Nathan Rees.

Environmentalists are not the only ones opposed to the project.

Senior officials from a number of state government departments have also raised concerns.

The dam still needs to be approved by the state’s Planning Department and the Federal Environment Minister.

Ms Keneally today would not comment on the future of the project.

“Tillegra Dam is going through a merit assessment process and it is appropriate that it do so. All the issues that people have raised in relation to that proposal should be examined within that merit assessment process,” she said.

A recent Morgan Poll showed 61 per cent of respondents in the Hunter are opposed to construction of the dam.

There are a number of extremely marginal seats in the Hunter region, meaning there is a strong political argument for the NSW Government to scrap the project.

Up until now it has strongly defended the need for Tillegra Dam, saying it will secure the Hunter’s long term water supply.

However given the State Government’s recent record of walking away from controversial decisions there is every chance that it will bow to pressure and decide to abandon the dam.

LNP’s teen candidate hits back at critics

The Queensland teenager pre-selected by the Liberal National Party to fight for one of the state’s most marginal seats at this year’s federal election insists he is the right candidate for the job.

Over the weekend Wyatt Roy, 19, was officially endorsed by the party’s hierarchy to stand in the seat of Longman, north of Brisbane.

That seat, representing an electorate with many seniors, was formerly held by the Liberal minister Mal Brough and is now held by Labor’s Jon Sullivan.

Winning the seat is critical for Federal Opposition Tony Abbott if he is to oust Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

Many, including Mr Brough, have questioned whether Mr Roy’s age and inexperience will stand against him.

But Mr Roy told ABC Local Radio that he was not worried about criticism of his age.

“I think anybody is entitled to their opinion and certainly Mal is entitled to his opinion,” he said.

“I think what is important is my approach to politics and what I bring is a completely fresh, clean, energised approach to federal politics.”

But Mr Roy, who finished Year 12 in 2007, does have somewhat limited life experience.

“I had two weeks after I finished school and I travelled. I went overseas and went around Europe, as most people do,” he said.

“I then moved interstate and started studying in Melbourne. There [I studied] international relations and then I moved back up to Brisbane to continue my studies.

“I worked in the family business when I came up here.”

Mr Roy says he comes from a farming family of swinging voters but says the politician he most admires is Mr Abbott.

“I really like Tony. I mean Tony Abbott is a straight shooter,” he said.

“[I like him] because he’s real. Too many politicians aren’t real. I mean, politics has become very disenfranchising.”

Big issues

The young aspiring politician was also asked what he thought about tough issues such as climate change.

“I certainly sit with Tony Abbott. … This is something that I’m quite passionate about,” he said.

“Let’s look at the two policies. Tony Abbott is fighting climate change through direct action and an incentive-based approach. All the while Kevin Rudd’s putting a tax on family and small business.”

Mr Roy also takes the party line on asylum seekers.

“It is about the politics of message … We have started to send a message where it is easy to come to this country, not going through the right processes,” he said.

“Now the last thing in the world we want is not to give these people a fair go. They deserve a fair go.

“This comes down to very complicated legislation about how we actually go through the processes of coming to our shores in a legal sense, and then working through that process from being an illegal arrival to being a legitimate arrival.”

Mr Roy says there are still “huge questions” that have not been answered about health.

“You’re talking about a federal takeover. And quite frankly the people in Caboolture, in my electorate, don’t know what Kevin Rudd’s takeover means,” he said.

“Does it mean more bureaucrats or does it mean more beds? We don’t know.”

And he says that part of his job is “getting out there and selling” Mr Abbott’s message on health.

‘Poor recruitment’

Mr Roy won over some listeners this morning, including former Liberal MP Don Cameron, who was voted into the Federal Parliament in 1966 at the age of 26.

“I copped the same thing in being described as a boy,” Mr Cameron said.

“But listening to that young fellow, he runs rings around my capacity at even 26.”

But Australian Catholic University professor of public policy, Scott Prasser, has reservations.

“I think it’s fantastic that young people are interested in politics and this person is obviously very committed and interested in politics,” he said.

“But … here we have one of the most marginal seats in the country, which is potentially winnable at the next federal election.

“What it indicates to me is that the LNP have got very poor recruitment processes.

“Now I think this is an opportunity for the LNP to recruit people of experience, so they can go into Parliament to play the bigger game of spearheading attacks on the Government and developing policy.

“I think a 19-year-old does not have that experience, and I think that is sending a wrong signal to the electorate.”

Foley ready to fight for SA deputy role

Kevin Foley says he is not worried by frontbencher Jay Weatherill’s challenge for the ALP deputy leadership.

Mr Weatherill says there is a need to refresh the party after a backlash against Labor by voters, especially in some of the safest electorates.

The fact that the anti-Labor sentiment was less evident in many marginal seats appears to have ensured Labor a third term in SA.

Premier Mike Rann is backing Mr Foley to stay on as his deputy and says Mr Weatherill’s announcement of a challenge is premature.

Mr Foley, who is also SA Treasurer, is keen to remain in his current roles.

“I know I’ve got faults, I know at times I’ve been too strident in my approach to this job but, you know, this job does require a toughness that a lot of other jobs don’t,” Mr Foley said.

The National Party says the Liberals may have spoiled their chances of achieving government in South Australia by focusing too much effort on ousting Riverland Nationals MP Karlene Maywald.

Ms Maywald, the only Nationals representative in SA, lost the seat of Chaffey to high-profile Liberal Tim Whetstone, who achieved a 20 per cent swing.

Ms Maywald had been in charge of the water portfolio in the Rann Labor Government.

Nationals SA president Jacky Abbott says the outcome in some city seats suggests the Liberals may have themselves to blame for losing on Saturday.

“They put an enormous amount of resources into Chaffey,” she said.

“Now we’re a conservative party, the Nationals in South Australia and everywhere else, but had they poured those resources into city-based seats it might well be that they might be in government.

“As a conservative party we would like to see a conservative party in government, but that was not to be.”

Liberal frontbencher Vickie Chapman conceded on election night that the party may have put some of its campaigning efforts into the wrong areas.

Difficult to recover

Politics lecturer Clem Macintyre says the signs are not good for the future of the National Party now that it has no representation in SA.

“It’ll be difficult for the Nationals to recover from this but I don’t suppose we can say they’re dead and buried yet,” he said.

More optimistic is former Nationals MP Peter Blacker.

“It’s a blow but they will come back. It might be one election period or two election periods before it will happen, but it will happen,” he said.

Mr Blacker says the Nationals recovered from a similar position in the early 1990s.

There are no more votes being counted yet in South Australia, as the city seats of Bright, Hartley and Mitchell remain in some doubt.

The ABC computer suggests Labor will end up with 25 Lower House seats, the Liberals 18 and independents with four.

Electoral Commissioner Kay Mousley says counting will resume on Tuesday.

“I would suggest for the key seats that are very marginal at this point in time we won’t know until we’ve conducted a distribution of preferences and that will happen on Sunday of this coming week,” she said.

ABC election analyst Antony Green says he doubts there is any prospect of the Liberals’ Joe Scalzi taking the seat of Hartley from Labor’s Grace Portolesi.

In the Legislative Council, it appears Labor and the Liberals will win four seats each and the Greens and Family First one each.

The 11th seat is a fight between Dignity For Disability, independent David Winderlich and the Free Australia Party.

Rann not ready to claim ‘sweetest victory’

Premier Mike Rann and Opposition Leader Isobel Redmond have neither claimed victory nor conceded defeat in the South Australia election.

As Labor hangs on in some key marginal seats, Ms Redmond told her supporters at party headquarters in Adelaide that “I’m not conceding yet”.

Ms Redmond congratulated the party on its wins in seats including Adelaide and Chaffey, where it ousted two members of the Labor cabinet, and suburban electorates of Norwood and Morialta.

She said some seats were too close to call but the Liberals had shown that the electorate believed Labor was failing to listen to key concerns.

The swing of about 7 per cent to the Liberals has been far from uniform.

Some of the biggest Liberal swings have been in their own safe seats and some of the safest Labor-held seats.

A smiling Mr Rann appeared at ALP headquarters a short time later.

He milled with the crowd for some minutes before he moved to the podium.

As supporters chanted “four more years”, Mr Rann said it had been an enormous privilege to govern SA for the past eight years.

He said he wanted to maintain the momentum in the state for the next four.

“We will reconnect with the people of this state,” Mr Rann said. “Win or lose.

“We are not claiming victory tonight. It is far too close to call.”

There were cheers as Mr Rann called his wife Sacha Carruozzo to the podium and thanked his children David and Eleanor for their support.

Mr Rann said if the ALP were able to claim victory in the days ahead, it would be “the sweetest victory of all” after all the “smearing” that had gone on.

Mr Rann committed the party to doing more to connect with South Australians in the streets, factories and shopping centres of the state.

Asked about his future as leader, Mr Rann gave away little but said the state’s interests would come first.

Deputy ALP leader Kevin Foley said he was more optimistic by night’s end than he had been when the polling booths were closing.

Rann has edge in SA cliffhanger

The Rann Labor government may be able to hold on and serve a third consecutive term in South Australia, as vote counting shows a big, but far from uniform, swing to the Liberals.

The Opposition seems unlikely to pick up some of the most marginal Labor-held electorates it would need for a win.

Labor is expected to lose three of the state’s eight most marginal seats and is keeping close watch on two others, Bright and Hartley.

It also faces the shock loss of the central city seat of Adelaide with of a swing to the Liberals of nearly 15 per cent.

The Liberal gains are Norwood, Morialta and Adelaide from Labor and Chaffey from the Nationals.

There is a small swing toward Labor in the northern Adelaide seat of Light, which is held by Tony Piccolo.

In the south, Labor’s Leon Bignell, with a buffer of 2.2 per cent, has seen a swing toward him as well.

The ALP also is set to retain Newland, where its member Tom Kenyon has had only a slight swing against him.

The Liberals will take the ALP-held seat of Norwood where the swing to the Liberals has been more than 10 per cent.

The ALP’s Grace Portolesi might retain the marginal seat of Hartley, where the anti-Labor swing is 3.8 per cent, two-party preferred, not enough for a Liberal victory.

In the seat of Adelaide, Labor education minister Jane Lomax-Smith has had a swing against her of almost 15 per cent. She held it with a 10 per cent margin.

Deputy Premier Kevin Foley said it was a shock to the ALP that Liberal candidate Rachel Sanderson had polled so well.

Dr Lomax-Smith said the seat had only been a Labor one for the past two terms.

Across SA, there has been a swing to the Liberals of close to 8 per cent, but not enough in some key seats it hoped to win to have a chance of forming government.

Some of the big swings to the Liberals have been in their own very safe electorates and in some of the safest ALP-held seats, such as Taylor, Enfield, Croydon, Colton and Cheltenham.

Mr Foley says if Labor holds onto government, he expects Mike Rann to remain leader because he will have delivered the ALP another victory.

Liberal frontbencher Vickie Chapman conceded some of her party’s campaigning effort may have gone into the wrong seats.

“Isobel’s done a great job in this campaign,” she said of party leader Isobel Redmond.

Mr Foley said he did not expect Ms Redmond to concede the election yet, based on the closeness of the count in doubtful seats, so Mike Rann was unlikely to claim victory.

“Isobel is a fighter, she will not concede until the result is clear,” said Liberal frontbencher Steven Griffiths.

Mr Griffiths commented briefly on the election eve gaffe he made about Royal Adelaide Hospital Liberal costings.

“If I had my opportunity again I probably would not say that,” he conceded.

Maywald sinks

The Riverland seat of Chaffey saw a big swing against Nationals MP Karlene Maywald, a minister for water security and the Murray in Labor’s government.

Liberal Tim Whetstone expressed confidence he would be the new member in the Riverland-based electorate.

In the ALP-held seat of Bright, Chloe Fox has seen her margin of 6.6 per cent almost gobbled up by the Liberals.

“I think there’s about 100 votes in it either way,” she told the ABC.

“We knew it would be an uphill battle,” said Liberal candidate Maria Kourtesis.

“It might take a week, it might take longer.”

Mount Gambier is in doubt in the fight between independent Don Pegler and the Liberals, after another independent Rory McEwen retired from politics.

A big swing against Labor in Florey seemed too little for the Liberals to pick it up.

The seat of Mitchell held by independent former Labor and Greens MP Kris Hanna was also still in some doubt.

The crucial factor is whether Mr Hanna can hang onto second place as votes are counted, to pick up vital preferences and be lifted to another victory in a seat held with a margin of just 0.5 per cent.

In Frome, based around Port Pirie, independent Geoff Brock held his ground as the Liberals polled well in a seat they lost in a by-election last year.

Fraud claim

Polling day was marred by claims the ALP committed electoral fraud in some key marginal seats.

At polling booths in the Adelaide-based seats of Mawson, Light and Morialta, flyers which appeared to be for Family First were handed out, but they carried the endorsement of the ALP’s South Australian secretary.

The cards put the Family First candidate at number one on the ballot paper and the Labor candidate second.

Family First’s official how-to-vote card had put Labor at number six and preferenced the Liberals.

Several voters complained to the Electoral Commission and said it potentially changed their vote.

The Commission says handing out deceptive how-to-vote cards is not in breach of the Electoral Act.

Family First candidate Robert Brokenshire said Labor was obviously running scared.

“It’s so blatant and fake,” he said.

“They’re using [the] Family First-registered party logo to try and deceive people to vote for Labor.

“Obviously Labor are scared of losing those seats so they’ve gone to this desperate situation of actually faking a how-to-vote card for Family First.”

Labor’s SA secretary Michael Brown said the cards were legitimate electoral material.

“The material was authorised and it also clearly tells people that their preference goes to the Labor Party,” he said.

“Clearly anything from the Labor Party would have been done within the Electoral Act,” said Deputy Premier Kevin Foley when he was shown the flyer on ABC Television later in the evening.

Rann holding on, Bartlett’s fate unknown

Tasmania is heading for a hung parliament while Labor is clinging to power in South Australia as counting continues in elections in both states.

Labor has lost its majority in Tasmania, with the ABC’s election computer predicting that Labor will win 10 seats, the Liberals nine and the Greens six in the 25-seat parliament.

Premier David Bartlett says he will not enter a power-sharing agreement with the Greens and will stand aside if he wins fewer seats than the Liberals or a smaller percentage of votes should both major parties win the same number of seats.

Tasmania uses the Hare-Clark proportional representation system and given the complexity of preference distribution, it could take more than 10 days before the true picture there emerges.

In South Australia, with more than 44 per cent of the vote counted the swing against Labor is running at almost 7 per cent.

But the ABC’s election computer has Labor winning 25 seats – one more than is required for victory.

Labor Premier Mike Rann began the day with a 10-seat majority over the Liberal Party, but Liberal Leader Isobel Redmond ran a strong campaign to close the gap between the parties.

The swing in South Australia has been patchy. Labor’s vote is holding up in some marginal seats that pollsters were predicting it would lose today.

This may be enough for Mr Rann to win a third term. He has been Premier of South Australia for eight years.