EU bank stress tests face their own test in markets

(Reuters) – EU tests of banks’ ability to withstand financial shocks, criticized as too easy after only 7 out of 91 failed, face their own stress test in the markets on Monday with early signs pointing to a more positive response.

European Union policymakers and regulators voiced relief at Friday’s results but some market analysts and many media commentators derided an exercise in which all listed banks passed as lacking in credibility.

“I see nothing stressful about this test. It’s like sending the banks away for a weekend of R&R,” said Stephen Pope, chief global equity strategist at brokers Cantor Fitzgerald.

There was skepticism about EU regulators’ conclusion that banks need only a total of 3.5 billion euros ($4.5 billion) in extra capital. Market expectations had ranged from 30 to 100 billion euros, although many European banks have already raised capital during the financial crisis.

Only five small Spanish banks, Germany’s state-rescued Hypo Real Estate and Greece’s Atebank failed outright. More than a dozen others scraped through with just over the required 6 percent of Tier 1 capital in the most stressful scenario and are likely to come under market scrutiny.

However, the wealth of data disclosed by banks representing 65 percent of assets, and the commitment of banks, regulators and governments to follow-up action may well outweigh doubts about the stringency of the tests.

In a first market reaction in New York late on Friday, the cost of insuring the debt of large European banks fell further and the euro rose against the dollar despite worries about the tests’ credibility.

Better-than-expected economic data and business confidence surveys suggesting the euro zone will avoid a double-dip recession despite fiscal austerity measures are also helping revive investor confidence in Europe.

HAGGLING

Given the haggling among EU governments and regulators about the stress tests right up to the last moment, the degree of transparency was greater than had been expected a few weeks ago.

Sources familiar with the discussions said Germany fought hard behind closed doors to limit the extent of disclosure.

In the end, most banks — except Deutsche — issued a detailed breakdown of their exposure to the sovereign debt of EU countries, enabling investors to run their own risk simulations to gauge a counterparty’s solidity.

“We have all the sovereign exposure data, and we can go ahead and do our own tests,” said Nial O’Connor, a banking analyst at Credit Suisse.

That should help reopen the interbank lending market, which partially froze at the height of the euro zone debt crisis in May and has remained tight due to fears that banks have been hiding big exposures.

It also responds to one of the major criticisms of the exercise — that the scenario assumed a “haircut” on sovereign debt of countries such as Greece held in banks’ trading books, but not on a longer-term basis in their banking books.

The EU authorities were chastised for refusing to test the impact of a default by Greece.

But European Central Bank governing council member Christian Noyer said euro zone states “have put several hundreds of billions of euros on the table with the support of the IMF to make this hypothesis completely excluded.”

TRANSPARENCY

Spain, which spearheaded the drive for transparency, tested a larger part of its banking system and disclosed more data than any other country, hoping to clear away lingering market suspicion of its smaller banks’ solvency.

However economist Nicolas Veron of the Bruegel think-tank said Madrid had underplayed the recapitalization needs of the cajas, regional savings banks, although its bank resolution fund (FROBE) is well on the way to meeting those needs.

“The Spanish wanted to be seen as the most transparent and deserve praise for the catalyst role they played, but in the end they clearly understated what the cajas need,” he said in a telephone interview.

Veron said follow-up actions by governments and regulators should include pressing weaker banks to recapitalize, if necessary with state help and facilitating cross-border takeovers of weaker banks.

Even before the results were published, National Bank of Greece, Slovenia’s NLB and Civica in Spain announced plans to raise capital.

Italy said it would reopen an offer of government-backed bonds to support its banks, although none failed. Monte dei Paschi di Siena squeaked through with 6.2 percent of Tier 1 capital under the most stressful scenario, and UBI Banca with 6.8 percent.

Veron said the success of the exercise would depend partly on whether European regulators adopt a more cooperative approach after the stress tests than they did before them.

“If this is the start of a beautiful friendship among EU supervisors, then that’s not the same as if the united front crumbles next week and they start criticizing each other again,” he said.

(Editing by Andrew Roche)

Migrants attacked in South Africa, five hurt

July 20 (Reuters) – South African residents have attacked migrants from African countries in a Johannesburg township, injuring at least five people and increasing concerns of a wave of xenophobia after the soccer World Cup.

Local media said four of those injured at Kya Sands were from Zimbabwe and Mozambique. The fifth was a South African who said his attackers refused to believe he was a local.

Tensions have long been building between South Africans and millions of foreign migrants they accuse of taking jobs and homes, but open animosity appeared to be put on hold during the World Cup as South Africa showed its best face to the world.

A spate of attacks on foreign workers in 2008 killed 62 people and damaged investor confidence. Another wave could wreck the positive image that Africa’s biggest economy was able to portray during the soccer tournament.

Running battles erupted late on Monday at Kya Sands after a robbery inside the township sparked anger between locals and foreigners, the Eye Witness News website said. It took police several hours to quell the unrest.

Eye Witness News said two men had deep cuts to their heads. One said he had been attacked with an axe. A woman was carried out on her husband’s back, saying she had failed to outrun a mob and had been kicked in the chest.

Foreign migrants are estimated to make up more than 10 percent of South Africa’s population of about 49 million. Many are Zimbabweans who fled economic collapse at home.

UPDATE 1-Hungary rules out austerity to IMF/EU, markets fall

BUDAPEST, July 19 (Reuters) – Hungary’s government insisted on a new financial sector tax this year and ruled out further austerity measures at talks with international lenders that were suspended at the weekend, the economy minister said on Monday.

The forint plunged about 2.7 percent in early trading on Monday to 289.70 versus the euro EURHUF=D2 after a review of Hungary’s funding agreement signed in Oct. 2008 fell through on Saturday when lenders said the new centre-right government needed to take tougher measures to rein in the budget deficit. [ID:nLDE66G0AP]

Government bond yields jumped 20-25 basis points after the open in illiquid trade.

Talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU ended prematurely on Saturday without concluding the country’s programme review.

This means Hungary will not have access to remaining funds of about 5.5 billion euros ($7.1 billion) in its 20 billion euro financing deal until the review is completed.

Even though the country is not under immediate financing pressure, it has been using the IMF/EU loan as a safety net this year so the lack of agreement risks damaging investor confidence. [ID:nLDE66I08V]

Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy told public television m1 on Monday that the IMF and EU have voiced concerns over a 200 billion forint tax planned by the government to contain the budget deficit and a bill which would cut the central bank governor’s salary.

“Hungary has experienced a programme of austerity over the past five years, we inherited this from the previous governments and we would like to do away with the unfortunate consequences of these steps,” Matolcsy said.

“We have told our partners that further austerity packages were out of the question.” The IMF said in a statement on Saturday that Hungary will need to take additional measures to meet its deficit targets this year and in 2011, set out in its current financing deal and in line with the country’s obligations with the European Union.

In a separate statement, the European Commission said the reducing Hungary’s deficit by next year “will require tough decisions, notably on spending.”

Hungary’s new government has pledged to meet this year’s budget deficit target of 3.8 percent of GDP, which Matolcsy reaffirmed on television on Monday, but he said this should be done primarily with the help of the planned tax on banks.

“We will impose the bank tax, we know this is a significant extra burden but we also know that with this we can achieve the 3.8 percent deficit,” he said.

“It is either bank tax or austerity, these are the two ways of thought.”

For highlights of Matolcsy’s comments click [ID:nLDE66I07T]

(Reporting by Gergely Szakacs and Krisztina Than; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

Indian shares up 0.9 pct; Infosys hits all-time high

MUMBAI, July 12 (Reuters) – Indian shares climbed to their
highest in more than three months on Monday, with Infosys
Technologies (INFY.BO) racing to an all-time high for the
second session ahead of its earnings.

Firmer Asian markets, expectations for robust factory
output growth due around 11 a.m. (0530 GMT) and hopes for
upbeat quarterly earnings bolstered investor confidence.

“There is good momentum with earnings season round the
corner. People are optimistic about June quarter results,” said
Kunal Sukhani, manager of institutional equities at Asian
Markets Securities.

Infosys, the second-largest software exporter, rose as much
as 1.4 percent to 2,911.55 rupees, its highest, on expectations
it would raise its dollar revenue forecast for the full year
when it unveils results on Tuesday. [ID:nSGE668050]

Rivals Tata Consultancy Services (TCS.BO) and Wipro
(WIPR.BO) rose 1.3 percent and 0.8 percent respectively.

By 10:51 a.m. (0521 GMT), the 30-share BSE index .BSESN
was trading up 0.87 percent at 17,998.47, with 25 of its
components gaining. It rose to 18,010.07 early, its highest is
more than three months.

The benchmark is up 2.9 percent so far in 2010, with
foreign funds investing a net of $6.8 billion in Indian
equities. In 2009, foreigners had bought a record $17.5 billion
of stocks and powered the index up 81 percent.

Factory output in May probably rose 16 percent from a year
earlier, lower than an annual growth of 17.6 percent in April,
a Reuters poll showed. [ID:nSGE66707T]

Trade Minister Anand Sharma said on Friday India’s gross
domestic product growth is expected to return to “9 percent
plus” this year, led by strong corporate performance and rising
savings levels, is also expected to support sentiment.
[ID:nSGE6680FV]

Financials led the gainers on expectations of a pick up in
loan demand. Top lender State Bank of India (SBI.BO) rose 0.5
percent while rivals ICICI Bank (ICBK.BO) and HDFC Bank
(HDBK.BO) were up 1.2 percent and 1.8 percent respectively.

Mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC.BO)
climbed 1.5 percent.

In the broader market, gainers were thrice the number of
losers with 123 million shares changing hands on the BSE.

The 50-share NSE index was up 0.8 percent at
5,392.55.

STOCKS ON THE MOVE

* Bharti Airtel (BRTI.BO) was up 0.2 percent at 208.95
rupees, after the top mobile operator said it would invest $150
million in Kenya to help boost network and capacity
distribution. [ID:nLDE6680W3]

* Vehicle maker Ashok Leyland (ASOK.BO) rose 0.9 percent to
70.10 rupees as Goldman Sachs started coverage on the stock
with a “buy” rating.

* Wind turbine maker Suzlon Energy (SUZL.BO) gained 0.9
percent to 59.20 rupees after it said it had received an order
from India’s Malpani Group to set up, operate and maintain two
wind power projects of 19.8 megawatt capacity. [ID:nSGE66B03T]

MAIN TOP THREE BY VOLUME

* Shree Ashtavinayak (SACV.BO) on 2.8 million shares

* Idea Cellular IDEA on 2.1 million shares

* IPCA (IPCA.BO) on 1.9 million shares

FACTORS TO WATCH
* For technical analysis double click on www.reutersindia.net
* Indian rupee report [INR/]
* Indian bond report [IN/]
* Yen dips, longs shed on Japan ruling party woes [FRX/]
* Oil hovers at $76 after China trade data [O/R]
* Japan’s Nikkei rises, brushes aside election [MKTS/GLOB]
* Wall St marks best week in a year; earnings on tap [.N]
* For closing rates of Indian ADRs INADR

China stocks end up 2.3 pct as cash flow improves

July 9 (Reuters) – China’s key stock index closed 2.3 percent higher on Friday as cash tied up by Agricultural Bank of China’s [ABC.UL] mega IPO returned to the market, while institutions bought up banks and property issues.

Dealers attributed the buying of blue chip stocks to window-dressing ahead of the listing of AgBank next week.

Trading remained cautious after a 25 percent market slump this year battered investor confidence, with traders predicting the index may not easily breach the psychologically important 2,500-point barrier.

The Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC closed at 2,471 points, winding up the week with a gain of 3.7 percent and reversing a 6.7 percent loss last week amid the peak of fund demand for AgBank’s stock initial public offering.

The Shanghai portion of AgBank’s IPO had frozen nearly 500 billion yuan ($74 billion) in subscription funds, and the money for failed subscriptions would all be returned by Friday. The bank will be listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong next week.

Despite Friday’s gain, the index is still one of the world’s worst performers so far this year, hit by a slew of negative factors including Beijing’s campaign to cool the property market and worries over a slowdown of China’s economic recovery amid the euro zone debt crisis.

“I believe institutional investors are doing some window-dressing buying ahead of the AgBank listing,” said a senior trader at a major Chinese brokerage. “But the market should pull back late next week after the AgBank listing.”

China State Construction Engineering Co (601668.SS), the country’s top developer and construction firm, was the day’s most active stock, rising 1.9 percent, while Minsheng Bank (600016.SS), another active stock, closed up 2.8 percent. ($1=6.77 yuan) (Reporting by Lu Jianxin and Jacqueline Wong)

ECB will continue buying government bonds – Paramo

June 17 (Reuters) – The European Central Bank will continue buying government bonds until markets have sufficiently stabilised, ECB executive board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo told a German newspaper.

Bonds | Global Markets

“So far the programme is going very well,” he said in an interview published in Financial Times Deutschland on Thursday.

The ECB started buying sovereign bonds last month in a controversial decision aimed at supporting bond markets, which have been rattled by a loss of investor confidence in some governments’ ability to rein in debt and deficits.

Gonzalez-Paramo told the paper that liquidity has returned to markets at levels above those seen in early May.

“But the situation is not yet entirely normal,” he said. (Reporting by Maria Sheahan; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Seoul shares hit 6-wk closing high on techs

SEOUL, June 16 (Reuters) – Seoul shares climbed to a six-week closing high on Wednesday, fueled by steady foreign buying and firm gains in key blue chips such as Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and Woori Finance Holdings (053000.KS).

Analyst said the main index could hit its earlier 2010 high 2010 high of 1757.76 points, reached on April 26th, within this month as appetite for risk revives, and ahead of the second quarter earnings season.

“We are seeing appetite for risk return to the market. Continued foreign buying and earnings expectations before second quarter results season are boosting sentiment,” said Lee Sun-yeb, a market analyst at Shinhan Investment Corporation.

“The main index looks set to hit its earlier 2010 high within a couple of weeks,” Lee said, adding that news of the National Pension Service’s (NPS) plans to boost equity holdings further reinforced investor confidence.

The NPS plans to add more risky assets such as equity and real estate to its holdings as it seeks to diversify its investment portfolio.[ID:nTOE65F009]

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) finished up 0.91 percent at 1,705.33 points.

Foreign investors were buyers of a net 343 billion won ($279.1 million) worth of stocks, picking up shares for a fourth straight session.

Shares in Woori Finance Holdings rose 3.29 percent after KB Financial Group (105560.KS) nominated a new chairman who is expected to seek a merger with Woori.

“His reported comments definitely pointed to KB Financial pursuing Woori, and those expectations are sending Woori Finance shares higher,” said Ku Yong-uk, a market analyst at Daewoo Securities.

“However there are still many unknown factors, such as what form the sale of Woori would take,” Ku said, adding that he “did not see great synergy in the merger.”

KB Financial Group retreated 2.83 percent.

Shares in NCSoft (036570.KS) jumped 7.18 percent amid positive expectations about its new game “Blade and Soul,” currently in the trial stage and expected to come out later this year or early next year, analysts said.

Telecom issues declined after LG Telecom (032640.KS) unveiled aggressively priced wireless service plans on Tuesday.

Shares in SK Telecom (017670.KS) were down 0.9 percent and KT Corp (030200.KS) shed 2.63 percent.

Memory chip makers were helped by a 5.5 percent spike in the key U.S. semiconductor index .SOXX.

Shares in Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), the world’s No.1 memory chip maker, rose 2.63 percent.

Shares in airlines and tour issues advanced as the summer holiday season approached, stoking positive earnings expectations.

Shares in Korean Air Line (003490.KS), South Korea’s top air carrier, rose 2.58 percent and Hana Tour (039130.KQ), a major tour agency, climbed 1.26 percent.

PRESS DIGEST – Wall Street Journal – June 14

(Reuters) – The following were the top stories in The Wall Street Journal on Monday. Reuters has not verified these stories and does not vouch for their accuracy.

Stocks | Global Markets

* Ethnic violence flared out of control in Kyrgyzstan, threatening to destabilize what has been a conduit for troops and supplies for the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan.

* The race to profit from Asia’s growing appetite for corn, soybeans and other crops is resurrecting once-dormant disputes between two mainstays of the nation’s economy: Farmers and railroads.

* Economic woes in Europe and the accompanying decline in the euro are already digging into the profits of Asia’s manufacturers. The worry is that the pain will spread more broadly if European demand for Asian exports falters.

* Settlement talks between Dell Inc (DELL.O), its CEO and the SEC may help illuminate what role rebates from Intel Corp (INTC.O) played in the computer maker’s finances.

* AT&T Inc (T.N), reaching out to iPad users Sunday to explain why their email addresses were released last week, blamed the incident on “computer hackers” who “maliciously exploited” an attempt by the carrier to speed the process of logging in to its website.

* French and German banks continued to hold the greatest exposure to euro-zone countries facing market pressures at the end of last year, underscoring their interest in restoring investor confidence in the region.

* Investors are ignoring warning signs in the $2.8 trillion municipal-bond market, raising the risk of a reckoning, according to some market specialists.

* Some workers at a Honda Motor Co (7267.T) plant in southern China pressed ahead with a strike Sunday as part of a wave of labor unrest that poses a political challenge for the Communist Party, whose authority in the workplace is being undermined by independent labor activists.

* European Central Bank governor Athanasios Orphanides indicated in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires that interest rates in the euro zone will remain on hold for many months, urging European politicians to tackle yawning inefficiencies in fiscal governance.

* Chinese wind-turbine maker Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co has decided to shelve its $1.2 billion Hong Kong initial public offering because of volatile market conditions, a person familiar with the situation said Sunday.

Debt crisis resembles 2007 subprime crisis -BIS

June 13 (Reuters) – The debt crisis hitting southern Europe resembles the 2007 subprime crisis more than the financial crisis following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, a report by the Bank for International Settlements said on Sunday.

In its quarterly review, the bank also said investors were concentrating on signs of stress in the financial system and neglecting positive economic data.

“The Greek downgrade on April 27 and the subsequent market reaction may have more in common with the start of the subprime crisis in July 2007 than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008,” BIS said.

“Rising Libor-OIS spreads and the dislocations in U.S. dollar funding markets recalled events in July-August 2007, when global interbank and money markets began showing clear signs of stress.”

Those spreads remain well below levels seen from August 2007 onwards despite a recent rise.

The report also said investor confidence fell sharply in the past three months amid concern about weaker growth and fiscal problems. Investors lowered their risk exposure and retreated to safe-haven assets.

Concerns about public debt in developed countries, as well as jitters about the state of the financial markets, policy tightening in some emerging markets and political risk, all led investors to question the robustness of global growth, BIS said.

As a result, expectations for monetary policy tightening in advanced economies were pushed back and inflation expectations remained well anchored.

“Against this background of heightened uncertainty, market participants focused on the deteriorating financial market conditions while often ignoring positive macroeconomic news,” BIS said.

In emerging markets, investors expected more restrictive policies, but uncertainty also increased.

“On the one hand, many of these economies are facing rapid economic growth, currency appreciation and the risk of overheating in asset and property markets,” the study said.

“On the other hand, the growth and inflation outlook has been complicated by the high volatility in commodity prices and the unpredictable effects on economic activity of the euro sovereign debt crisis.”

Euro zone sovereign credit default swaps moved dramatically, but little credit risk was reallocated through CDS markets, the study said.

“Even though outstanding gross volumes of sovereign CDS contracts are significant and have risen over the past year, the net amount of CDS contracts is only about one-tenth of the gross volumes,” BIS said.

“The net amount takes into account that many CDS contracts offset one another and therefore do not result in actual transfer of credit risk.” (Reporting by Sakari Suoninen; Editing by Susan Fenton)

South Korea unveils currency controls

(Reuters) – South Korea announced on Sunday long-anticipated currency controls, saying it aimed to curb rapid shifts in capital flows that were linked to short-term foreign debt and posed a risk to the world’s ninth-biggest exporter.

South Korea

The authorities, alarmed by the won’s sharp swings during recent market turbulence caused by Europe’s debt problems, have been priming investors for weeks for action aimed at stabilizing its currency and cooling overseas borrowing.

The well-flagged new restrictions slap limits on banks’ and other financial institutions’ currency forwards, cross-currency swaps as well as non-deliverable currency forwards.

“These measures are aimed at reducing the volatility in capital flows that poses a systemic risk in the country,” South Korea’s finance ministry, two financial regulators and the central bank said in a joint statement.

The new rules will cap domestic banks’ and non-bank financial institutions’ currency forwards and derivatives at 50 percent of their equity capital. The cap for foreign bank branches was set at 250 percent of equity to account for their lower capital, which on average is just 1/30 of that held by domestic banks.

Officials brushed off suggestions that the regulations, which follow liquidity controls and curbs on companies’ currency trades announced in November, could hurt investor confidence.

“We will stick to a principle of an open market and liberalization of capital transactions. That is a promise we have globally made. We expect foreigners to invest more in the longer term thanks to reduced volatility,” Deputy Finance Minister Yam Jong-yong told a news briefing.

Officials said the new rules were, in fact, a part of a worldwide effort to better regulate financial institutions to avoid a repeat of the global financial crisis that pushed the world’s economy into its deepest recession since the 1930s.

LOPSIDED MARKET

Seoul also argues that Asia’s fourth-largest economy has special reasons to act as it is more exposed to market gyrations than its peers because of its high short-term foreign debt.

The debt is equivalent to 60 percent of foreign reserves — nearly twice the ratio in Indonesia or Malaysia — and largely reflects an imbalance in the forward market caused by heavy dollar selling by shipbuilders and other big exporters.

This drives down the cost of obtaining dollars, encouraging financial markets players, both foreign and local to borrow dollars and use the proceeds to buy South Korean assets.

In addition, banks dealing with exporters borrow dollars to balance their positions, which additionally exposes South Korea to a sudden dollar squeeze, similar to that which followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

Bankers said the authorities may succeed in somewhat curbing short-term dollar borrowing, but the controls may backfire when it comes to their ultimate goal — limiting sharp market swings.

“The measures may cause market volatility to rise further in the near term. Doing arbitrage trade in South Korea will be unprofitable to foreign banks and they may move it out of South Korea,” a head of a foreign bank branch in Seoul said.

Figures provided by authorities showed the new curbs, that have yet to be signed off by a presidential committee on regulatory reforms and are expected to come into force in October, would mainly affect foreign bank branches.

While average domestic banks’ currency positions were at comfortable 15.6 percent of equity capital, the exposure of foreign bank branches stood at just above 300 percent.

Banks will have up to two years to comply fully with the new limits and Yam said that grace period could be even extended in some cases. However, those who failed to meet agreed limits would be punished with reduced limits.

In another effort to calm markets, the authorities said they were ready to help if the new controls provoked excessive short-term market swings.

The won, pressured by talk of imminent controls, suffered four consecutive weekly losses, but ended Friday’s trade slightly higher in a sign that markets have largely discounted the new regulations. Traders had expected limited market reaction on Monday assuming banks would be given enough time to adjust to new rules.

In addition to curbs on currency trades for banks, the authorities tightened the limits on companies’ currency derivatives trades announced in November, lowering the ceiling to 100 percent of the value of their physical foreign trade transactions from the initial 125 percent.

The central bank will also take steps next month to limit foreign-currency lending by banks to local companies by allowing such lending only to finance documented deals with foreign entities.

(Additional reporting by Kim Yeon-hee; Writing by Tomasz Janowski; Editing by Louise Heavens)

U.S. stock futures inch higher; Wendy’s eyed

* U.S. stock index futures pointed to a slightly higher open on Wall Street on Friday following the previous session’s strong gains, with futures for the S&P 500 SPc2 up 0.24 percent, Dow Jones DJc2 futures up 0.19 percent and Nasdaq 100 NDc2 futures up 0.15 percent at 0944 GMT.

Stocks | Bonds | Global Markets

* Oil held at around $75 as investor confidence in China’s growth eclipsed data showing weaker-than-expected industrial output for the country in May.

* Japan’s Nikkei .N225 climbed 1.7 percent, while European stocks were up 0.9 percent in morning trade, with BP (BP.L) rebounding 7 percent as investors welcomed support from British politicians for the oil giant, eclipsing news that U.S. government scientists have doubled their estimate of the amount of oil gushing out of the ruptured well.

* The euro was supported on Friday on the back of higher stocks, but the single currency struggled to extend its short-covering rally versus the dollar ahead of technical resistance, while options barriers also capped gains.

* Wendy’s Arby’s Group Inc (WEN.N) shares jumped 10.8 percent to $4.81 in extended trading on Thursday after investor Nelson Peltz said he received an oral inquiry from a third party expressing interest on a preliminary basis in a potential acquisition involving the company. Shares of the company traded in Frankfurt (TQK.F) were up 13 percent.

* Dell Inc (DELL.O) will be in the spotlight after saying late on Thursday it is in talks to settle a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission investigation into its accounting practices and its relationship with chipmaker Intel Corp (INTC.O), and said it has established a $100 million reserve for a potential settlement. Dell shares traded in Frankfurt (DELL.F) were down 0.9 percent.

* National Semiconductor Corp (NSM.N) delivered a margin and revenue forecast above Wall Street estimates, signaling that demand is bouncing back after an horrendous 2009 for the microchip industry. Stock in the company rose 2 percent in extended trade on Thursday.

* On the macro side, the Commerce Dept is due to release the May retail sales, at 1230 GMT, while the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers release June preliminary consumer sentiment index, at 1355 GMT, and the Commerce Department issues Business Inventories for April, at 1400 GMT.

* U.S. stocks posted their best day in the last nine on Thursday in response to signs of health in the euro debt market and as investors snapped up energy shares crushed in the previous day’s sell-off.

* The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI jumped 273.28 points, or 2.76 percent, to 10,172.53. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX rose 31.15 points, or 2.95 percent, to 1,086.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 59.86 points, or 2.77 percent, to 2,218.71. (Reporting by Blaise Robinson; Editing by Mike Nesbit)

Analysis: Hungary tax cuts offer long term gain

(Reuters) – Tax cuts could boost Hungary’s growth and make its finances more sustainable but the government must first deliver on budget goals to regain investor confidence shaken by ill-worded comparisons with Greece.

Greece

Hungary was the first European Union country to need International Monetary Fund help when the global crisis deepened in 2008, and will probably need to keep some kind of IMF safety net even after its current IMF/EU loan expires in October 2010.

Although the new government’s measures announced on Tuesday include some that pose risks to growth in the near term, the planned tax cuts could boost growth a few years down the line by discouraging illegal employment and improving tax compliance, ultimately making it easier to reduce the country’s debt burden.

“The important thing is that Fidesz (ruling party) gets the sequencing right: the government must first show that they can reduce the deficit and thereby reduce debt,” said Christian Keller at Barclays in London.

“Then confidence will be established and better growth will help to make the further debt reductions even simpler — a virtuous cycle.”

The center-right government, seeking to banish the specter that officials raised last week of a Greek-style debt crisis, proposed steps which include a flat 16 percent income tax, a hefty tax on banks, and a ban on new foreign currency lending.

While much depends on the details, analysts said plans such as the flat income tax and a cut in the corporate tax on small and medium firms to 10 percent will bolster longer term growth.

TAX EVASION

However the tax on banks and the ban on foreign currency loans will curb lending and hamper growth in the short term. A planned freeze in public sector costs and a cut in some public wages could also hurt domestic demand this year.

“In the short term, I don’t think this package will boost demand next year in the economy, but on the whole the incentives in the tax regime to work more and employ more people legally could move things in a positive direction,” said Zsolt Kondrat, economist at MKB Bank in Budapest.

Eszter Gargyan at Citigroup said tax cuts could give consumption a one-off boost but other measures could partly offset that. “Long-term competitiveness gains may also require structural reforms in the labor market and a stable economic environment,” she added.

Hungary’s economy shrank by 6.3 percent last year, but grew 0.9 percent in the first quarter compared to the last quarter of 2009 thanks to rising exports and manufacturing.

Once a magnet for foreign investment in central Europe, Hungary’s competitive edge has eroded partly due to its high labor tax wedge, which according to the OECD was smaller only than Belgium’s in the EU, at around 55 percent in 2008.

High taxes have built a black economy. About 740,000 of Hungary’s 10 million people work in the state sector and in the private sector hundreds of thousands — some just on paper, to evade taxes — are employed on the minimum monthly wage of 73,500 forints ($374).

The previous Socialist government cut employers’ social taxes to 27 percent from 32 percent, but a February OECD report said tax remains “exceedingly high” and described “a classic vicious circle of burdensome taxation that induces evasion and participation in the grey economy.”

IMF FINANCING ANCHOR

The government wants to collect 200 billion forints from the financial sector through a new tariff this year alone.

It also wants to ban foreign currency lending — an engine of domestic demand which turned into a huge vulnerability.

“We view a three-year bank tax … as negative for growth,” said Peter Attard Montalto at Nomura.

But Hungarians, who endured their second major austerity package last year since the 1989 collapse of the communist regime, have welcomed an income tax cut and are cautiously optimistic.

“Maybe we’ll be able to pay our mortgage easier. It has been pretty tough for us. Although … I’m sure the banks will pass on their own extra tax to us,” said Eva Kelemen, 40, a teacher in Budapest.

“I will surely be better off with a 16 percent flat income tax,” said Beatrix Vegh, who works in the private sector.

Investors, who had high hopes for the new government after April elections, want to see it honor this year’s 3.8 percent deficit target and control the deficit next year as well.

Even then, they want Hungary to agree a new deal with the IMF, given a public debt burden of around 80 percent of gross domestic product.

“If the government presents an acceptable economic plan, market funding is likely to be sufficient to cover public funding needs,” said Gargyan at Citigroup.

“Nonetheless, given the uncertainties related to global financing conditions and the weak credibility of the government, the renewal of the IMF program is likely to … provide an anchor for investors and a funding buffer in case of severe tightening in external liquidity conditions.”

(Reporting by Krisztina Than; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

UPDATE 1-Nordic bank ditched BP stock after oil spill

* Nordea says some 20 of its funds affected by decision

Stocks | Global Markets | Financials

* Bank divested shares worth $11.94 mln

* BP has not followed safety, environmental rules-Nordea

* BP says it is open and transparent

(Adds details)

HELSINKI, June 7 (Reuters) – Nordic bank Nordea (NDA.ST) said it divested all its BP (BP.L) shares, worth about 10 million euros ($11.94 million), from its funds and would halt further investment in the British oil company until further notice. [ID:nN07147206]

Nordea said on Monday its responsible investment committee had made the decision on Friday, affecting some 20 of its funds. It said BP has not disclosed enough information and was not transparent about how operations similar to Gulf of Mexico are managed.

“The environmental catastrophe in the Mexican Gulf is an extraordinary situation given the size of the spill, weak response from BP, criminal investigation towards the company as well as anticipated risk for other accidents,” Nordea said.

BP had failed to follow its own safety and environmental rules in the environmental catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico, Nordea said, adding it would halt further investment in BP until it received clarification from BP on its risk management.

Oil began leaking from BP’s well in the Gulf of Mexico on April 20 after a rig explosion killed 11 workers. BP faces a criminal investigation, lawsuits, dwindling investor confidence and questions about its credit-worthiness.

BP shares have lost about one-third of their value since the environmental crisis started. [ID:nLDE65608D]

A BP spokesman rejected the criticism.

“We’ve been open and transparent in every aspect of the response,” BP spokesman Mark Salt said. (Reporting by Helsinki Newsroom and Tom Bergin in London; Editing by Sharon Lindores) ($1=.8375 Euro)

UK coalition to start budget deficit cuts this week

Britain’s Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government will on Monday get to work cutting spending to reduce a record budget deficit as it seeks to ease fears of contagion spreading from Europe’s fiscal crisis.

The new coalition, formed after the May 6 election produced no outright victor, will also announce its first programme of law-making this week, including political reforms and tighter banking regulation.

Conservative finance minister George Osborne and his Lib Dem deputy David Laws will on Monday announce how government departments will share the burden of an initial 6 billion pounds ($8.62 billion) of savings in 2010.

Government advisory bodies — known as quangos — are expected to lose about 500 million pounds in funding and the sprawling business ministry may have to shoulder upwards of 700 million pounds of savings.

The coalition says cutting Britain’s budget deficit, which is running above 11 percent of gross domestic product, is its top priority, especially since Greece’s debt crisis has rattled investor confidence the euro zone.

“I don’t think we anticipated … quite how sharply the economic conditions in the euro zone would have deteriorated and the need to show that we need to get to grips with this suddenly became much greater,” Lib Dem Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg told BBC television on Sunday.

An emergency budget on June 22 will outline the scale of spending cuts and tax rises needed to achieve the coalition’s aim of cutting the deficit faster than the previous Labour government, which wanted to halve borrowing over four years.

BANK TAXES

The Independent on Sunday newspaper said Treasury officials were looking into a tax or combination of measures on banks, possibly worth up to 8 billion pounds a year. There has also been speculation of a rise in the rate of VAT sales tax.

The Treasury declined to comment on the report but the Conservatives have said they would be prepared to introduce a bank tax even before international agreement had been reached. Policymakers from leading economies will discuss proposals for such taxes early next month.

Even with such a hefty tax income from the financial sector, the size of Britain’s budget deficit, forecast to hit 163 billion pounds this year, means far harsher spending cuts are needed in years to come than those announced for 2010.

Putting those tough decisions into action and negotiating which public services should be cut could put pressure on relations within the coalition, which has been keen to stress so far that it intends to serve a full five-year term.

Parts of both parties have voiced concerns about the compatibility of the two parties in Britain’s first coalition government since World War Two — and both sides have already made significant concessions so far.

The Lib Dems had been opposed to spending cuts this year for fear they could derail Britain’s frail economic recovery from the worst recession in at least 60 years.

The Conservatives, opposed to any changes to the electoral system, have said they are prepared to give voters the chance to change how they elect party candidates to parliament — a coup for the reform-hungry Lib Dems.

Political reforms, including a switch to fixed-term parliaments and cutting the number of members of parliament, are likely to form part of the coalition’s first legislative programme due to be announced by the Queen at the state opening of parliament on Tuesday.

Two Sunday newspapers said they had obtained drafts of that speech, which outlined an ambitious aim to introduce more than 20 new bills to parliament over 18 months but contained few surprises on top of the already agreed coalition policy plan.

(Editing by Elizabeth Fullerton)

Leaders meet Governor

The Tasmanian Governor, Peter Underwood, is poised to announce his decision on who will be the state’s next Premier.

Tasmania’s Liberal and Labor leaders have held meetings at Government House in Hobart for the second time in two days.

Liberal leader Will Hodgman gave no indication about the nature of his talks with the Governor.

Reporters say he emerged from the meeting after 20 minutes with a beaming smile but made no comment.

The caretaker Premier, David Bartlett, was also tight-lipped when he emerged from his meeting.

A meeting of the new Labor Caucus broke up this afternoon with no word on the outcome.

The 10 new MPs met to discuss an 11th hour pledge from the Greens to support the incumbent government in minority under Mr Bartlett’s Premiership.

Earlier this afternoon, the Liberal Party again ruled out any deals with the Greens.

The Greens say they will not move or support a no-confidence motion in a new Labor Government in parliament.

The pledge will stand until either of the two major parties neogtiate a written power-sharing agreement with them.

Liberal leader Will Hodgman had not commented on the development but his spokesman Brad Stansfield says the party is sticking to its election promise of no deal and will not be blackmailed by the Greens.

Mr McKim denies the Greens are trying to force negotiations with the Liberals.

“We’ve placed at the forefront of our minds the need for stable government which will keep investor confidence high and keep jobs being created,” he said.

Today’s developments mean Labor could continue to govern without a deal with the Greens.

In the past, the party has also ruled out deals.

Today Labor media adviser Vanessa Fabris highlighted recent statements by leader David Bartlett which indicate the party would be happy to continue governing.

Boxes were being wheeled out of the Executive Building in Murray Street building this morning, as Labor MPs remained inside considering their future.

Newly-elected Labor MP Scott Bacon refused to comment, running down a nearby alleyway when approached.

A second new Labor MP Rebecca White walked away, refusing to comment on whether Labor would consider a power-sharing arrangement.

Mr Bartlett issued a statement earlier today saying he will not be making any comments before the Governor, Peter Underwood.

He advised the Governor yesterday to give the Liberals the first opportunity to form government.

Last month’s state election delivered a hung parliament with the Liberals and Labor parties on 10 seats each and the Greens on five.

Thai PM declares state of emergency

Thailand’s embattled premier declared a state of emergency in Bangkok after protesters stormed parliament in a dramatic escalation of their bid to topple the government.

MPs fled and several senior government figures were airlifted by military helicopter after red-shirted supporters of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra forced their way into the country’s parliamentary compound.

In an effort to contain the crisis, prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva invoked emergency rule, which bans public gatherings of more than five people and gives broad powers to the police and military.

“The state of emergency aims to resolve the situation and bring a return to normal,” Mr Abhisit told a nationally televised press conference.

He said the mass rallies were unconstitutional and had tarnished the country’s image, eroding investor confidence.

It is the fourth time since 2008 that emergency law has been declared in the capital because of political turmoil.

Mr Abhisit left a cabinet meeting at parliament when he learnt that the Reds were approaching, moving to a military barracks in the city’s northern outskirts, where he has mostly been based since the protests began mid-March.

Tens of thousands of anti-government protesters have refused to leave Bangkok’s main commercial district, where they have been since Saturday, disrupting traffic and causing major shopping centres to shut.

The red-clad movement remained defiant, vowing to keep up their action.

“I gamble my life with this dictator government,” said Reds leader Jatuporn Prompan.

The Reds, mostly from Thailand’s rural poor and working class, say the government is illegitimate because it came to power with army backing through a parliamentary vote in December 2008 after a court ousted Thaksin’s allies.

Mr Abhisit cancelled a planned trip to the United States for a nuclear security summit next week due to the unrest.

The Reds have been emboldened after the police and army backed down on Tuesday following a tense standoff in the capital’s tourist heartland.

The authorities have threatened the protesters with a year in jail, but so far no arrests have been made. Security forces have refrained from using force to disperse the tens of thousands of protesters, who have been roaming the capital.

The government said it would act if needed to end the protests, but reiterated that it wanted a peaceful resolution to the standoff.

The followers of Thaksin – a billionaire telecoms tycoon who lives abroad to avoid a jail term for corruption – fervently support the populist policies he introduced before his ouster in a 2006 coup.

Thaksin sought to rally his supporters on Wednesday in a brief message through the micro-blogging service Twitter, praising their “courage, patience and unity.”

On Tuesday, protesters threw plastic bottles, pushed against police barricades and later took over the streets of central Bangkok on motorcycles and in pick-up trucks, pouring into the capital’s financial district.

The military has mounted a heavy security response, deploying 50,000 personnel at one point to try to contain the protests, which drew as many as 100,000 people on the first day on March 14.

But the government wants to avoid a repeat of last April’s clashes with Red Shirts that left two people dead, six months after riot police took on the rival Yellow Shirts in bloody scenes outside parliament.

In the latest unexplained blast since the rallies began, police said a grenade exploded shortly after midnight next to a supermarket in Bangkok, injuring one man.

UPDATE 1-Wall St Week Ahead: Dow eyes 11,000 as jobs data looms

(Updates column sent late Friday with ECB vice president’s comments over weekend plus S&P 500′s gain since March 2009 closing low)

Stocks

By Rodrigo Campos

NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) – The Dow industrials could hit 11,000 this week as investors bet the U.S. labor market had a significant turnaround in March, showing the economic recovery is in good shape.

The Dow and the S&P 500 are at their highest in nearly 18 months and the expected repositioning before Wednesday’s end of the quarter could provide further support. With the Dow closing at 10,850.36 on Friday, it would need to rise 1.4 percent — a tad less than 150 points — to reach 11,000.

But with benchmark U.S. Treasury yields approaching 4 percent, investors may prefer the relative safety of U.S. debt instead of continuing to throw money at a stock market that has risen steeply for more than a year.

Economists expect data on Friday to show the economy created about 190,000 jobs in March, but stock investors will have to be brave enough to bet on that confirmation ahead of the data, since the market will be closed for the Good Friday holiday.

Wednesday’s private-sector jobs data and Thursday’s jobless claims could support those willing to step out on a limb.

“Obviously, the jobs number is the most important thing” this week, said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, in New York.

“You are going to get this delayed reaction (the following) Monday, unless the claims numbers are just so terrific, that you get some pre-buying ahead of Friday.”

Stocks closed higher for a fourth straight week, around levels not seen since September 2008, as recent uncertainty stemming from fiscal problems in some European countries and the healthcare overhaul receded.

A European Union agreement on a safety net for Greece restored investor confidence, but that net could prove small if fiscal burdens bog down other EU members like Portugal, whose debt rating was cut on Wednesday by Fitch.

“Clearly, there is the potential for there to be fiscal issues with other countries in Europe, but the Europeans have now set a precedent that they intend to backstop any negative fiscal situations,” said Ken Farsalas, portfolio manager at Oberweis Asset Management in Lisle, Illinois.

Over the weekend, Lucas Papademos, the vice president of the European Central Bank, told Reuters on Saturday the EU’s latest agreement on Greece should ease concerns about a sovereign debt crisis in Europe. For details, see [ID:nN27211926]

Sentiment, nonetheless, remains downbeat. Friday’s stock market sell-off followed news that a South Korean naval ship had sunk, suggesting risk takers are ready to sell on any troublesome news — and ask questions later.

Main indexes closed flat on Friday. For details see [.N].

But for the week, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 1 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX gained 0.6 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC advanced 0.9 percent.

The S&P 500 is up 72.4 percent from its March 2009 closing low.

CURIOUS CASE OF THE RISING YIELD

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note’s yield brushed 4 percent last week, foreshadowing a possible roadblock for stock bulls.

Three government debt auctions last week had “mediocre, at best” results and rising yields “at some point, become an obstacle for equities,” said Quincy Krosby, a market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey.

Yielding 4 percent and with the relative safety of U.S. government debt, Treasuries could entice investor money that would otherwise keep pumping into stocks.

Rising yields also lead to higher borrowing costs.

“It becomes worrisome with a fragile economy that’s trying to gain traction and momentum,” Krosby said.

Investors will have plenty of data points to gauge that momentum in the coming holiday-shortened week.

The consumer’s strength will be measured by February income and spending data on Monday and March consumer confidence, on Tuesday.

Personal income is forecast to rise 0.1 percent, mirroring the previous month’s gain, while the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is seen rising to 50 in March from 46 in February, according to economists polled by Reuters.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home prices index for January, due on Tuesday, is expected to show house prices fell 0.7 percent year-over-year, much slower than 3.1 percent recorded in December.

Construction spending in February, due on Thursday, is seen dropping 1 percent.

On the labor market front, Friday’s widely followed non-farm payrolls report is expected to show 190,000 jobs created in March. But the U.S. unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 9.7 percent.

Payrolls data follows the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday, with economists expecting the private sector created 40,000 jobs in March, and Thursday’s data on initial jobless claims, predicted to dip to 440,000 last week from 442,000 previously.

Rounding out the week’s economic data, the Chicago PMI on Wednesday is seen at 61 in March, down from February’s 62.6.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, due on Thursday, is expected to show U.S. factory activity continued to expand, with a March reading of 56.8, up from 56.5 in February. March domestic car and truck sales are also expected on Thursday.

QUARTER’S END MAY SPUR MORE GAINS

Volume could also tick higher this week, which would be a welcome shift from the anemic volume dogging stocks the past few weeks.

With the quarter’s end on Wednesday, some managers will reposition portfolios by selling laggard stocks and switching to stronger names.

If stocks benefit further from this window dressing, backed by expectations of strong data points, the three major U.S. stock indexes could be on track for a fifth straight week of gains. That would be a streak not seen since the six weeks that followed the bottoming of the market just over a year ago. (The Wall St Week Ahead column appears every Sunday. Comments or questions on this one can be e-mailed to rodrigo.campos@thomsonreuters.com) (Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Leah Schnurr and Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)

Euro zone hopes Greece deal will impress market

Euro zone leaders received a cautious stamp of approval from financial markets on Friday for their agreement to create a safety net with the International Monetary Fund to help debt-ridden Greece.

Under an accord announced late on Thursday, Athens would receive coordinated bilateral loans from other countries that use the euro and IMF if it faced severe difficulties.

The euro rose against the dollar on Friday, recovering from an earlier 10-month low. It fell late on Thursday as investors took the view that IMF involvement showed the 16-country euro zone could not handle its problems alone.

Concern that Greece could default was expected to ease after the deal, welcomed by Athens which must borrow some 16 billion euros between April 20 and May 23 alone to refinance maturing debt.

“The market is quickly pricing out any probability of default risk,” Petros Christodoulou, the head of Greece’s debt agency, told Reuters.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe had proven its ability to act in concert, as she arrived for the second day of an EU summit, expected to focus on climate change and how to improve economic competitiveness.

“It is important in the long term that the currency — which has been such a success for freedom and cooperation — stays stable. That is why yesterday was a very important day for the euro,” she said.

The premium investors charge for holding Greek bonds rather than benchmark German Bunds narrowed but remained much higher than the spread charged on fellow euro zone weaklings Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Athens is still saddled with borrowing costs more than double those of Germany.

“Given the short-term risk of any default is now out of the way, they should be able get over this May funding problem,” said a bond trader in London.

The deal on Greece offers a safety net which European leaders hope will revive investor confidence even though they hope never to use it.

“I am extraordinarily happy that the government of the euro area found a workable solution,” European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters in Brussels after the euro area leaders approved a draft agreement reached in talks between France and Germany.

“I am confident that the mechanism decided today will normally not need to be activated and that Greece will progressively regain the confidence of the market,” he said.

Trichet had previously warned against getting the IMF to solve the euro zone’s problems.

Graphic on euro zone debt crisis http://r.reuters.com/fyw72j

Graphic on Greece and Portugal http://r.reuters.com/far94j

QUESTIONS REMAIN

Thursday’s agreement, which would apply to other euro zone countries that hit trouble, left a number of questions unanswered, including how the Washington-based IMF and the euro zone would work together in practice.

A statement by euro zone leaders included no numbers, but a senior European Commission source said the support package would be worth 20-22 billion euros ($27-29 billion) if required in an emergency.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the euro zone would put up two-thirds of the money, and the IMF the rest.

But euro zone leaders did not indicate there was anything to prevent Greece going unilaterally to the IMF.

Tough terms imposed by Merkel mean the mechanism could be activated only under strict conditions and would require the unanimous approval of the euro zone, giving Berlin a veto.

Merkel had long resisted offered aid to Greece because of public opposition in Germany and concerns that any deal could face a legal challenge at home. She also faces a tough state election in May that she can ill afford to lose.

Bowing to demands by Berlin, euro zone leaders called for proposals by the end of the year to tighten the bloc’s budget discipline rules, which failed to prevent Greece running up huge deficits and public debt.

CRACKS IN EU UNITY

Without a fallback mechanism, EU leaders feared Greece’s debt problems could spread to other countries in the euro zone including Portugal, Spain or Italy.

But differences over Greece have widened divisions in the 27-country EU, which represents 500 million people.

EU diplomats said Britain and Poland, two powerful countries outside the euro zone, were concerned that the euro area was taking decisions on issues beyond their remit, especially on economic governance, or policy coordination.

Eurosceptic British media portrayed this as an attempt by the EU to increase its powers over the British economy.

“I am in favour of increased budget discipline but I would like such decisions to be worked out by the entire Council (of 27 EU leaders) not just the (16-country) Eurogroup and this argument was accepted,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Timothy Heritage

Power sharing stance ‘selfish’: Greens

The Tasmanian Greens say the Labor and Liberal leaders are selfish for continuing to rule out power sharing deals, in the event of a minority government.

Premier David Bartlett and Liberal Leader Will Hodgman again refused to make deals with the Greens at a leaders debate last night.

The debate on pay TV was organised by the Premier’s office, and the Greens’ leader was excluded.

Greens leader, Nick McKim, told ABC local radio a majority government would not necessarily lead to stability in the state.

“Ultimately both David Bartlett and Will Hodgman have got a position that will lead to massive instability,” he said.

“Investor confidence will plummet under their proposals and we will lose jobs in Tasmania because of the selfish and self-interested position that’s being taken by both of those gentlemen and their parties.”

FOREX-Euro steady as Greece news eyed; sterling falls

Possible Greece deal helps euro, but uncertainties remain

Currencies

* Sterling falls sharply on concerns about hung parliament

* Possible Prudential buy of AIG Asia unit also dents pound

By Jessica Mortimer

LONDON, March 1 (Reuters) – The euro was steady against the dollar on Monday as signs emerged that a support deal for Greece may be near, while sterling fell to a nine-month low versus the dollar as UK political uncertainty increased.

Sterling was the biggest mover among major currencies, with the euro hitting its highest in one and a half months versus the pound, after an opinion poll showed a growing risk no party will win a majority in an election due by June 3. [ID:nLDE61R07C]

This increased investor concerns that an incoming government would not be able to implement measures needed to cut UK debt. News Britain’s Prudential Plc (PRU.L) was in talks to buy AIG’s (AIG.N) Asian arm further dented the pound. [ID:nLDE6200CL]

The euro gained some support as the market speculated that a visit by EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn to Athens on Monday for talks about Greece’s debt crisis could move EU governments closer to announcing some form of emergency aid.

Concerns about Greece’s large debts have undermined investor confidence in the single currency, but uncertainty about a possible deal remained as German Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed no decision had been taken. [ID:nLDE61R0BX]

“There is speculation that Germany and France may be reaching an agreement on a rescue plan, but on the other hand later there was a strong denial by Merkel, so the market is still quite cautious,” said Roberto Mialich, currency strategist at Unicredit in Milan.

He added that market players were likely to be “very prudent” in the coming days before a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and U.S. jobs data on Friday.

The euro was steady against the dollar EUR= at $1.3626, while against the pound EURGBP=D4 it rose as high as 90.04 pence, its strongest since mid-January.

Sterling GBP=D4 fell 0.6 percent against the dollar to $1.5160, off a low of $1.5096, its weakest since mid-May last year. It has shed more than 6 percent against the dollar this year.

“Sterling remains under major pressure on its political/fiscal woes, with latest opinion polls suggesting a very tight election in early May,” ING analysts said in a note, adding sterling could break below $1.50.

DOLLAR INDEX

The dollar index .DXY edged up 0.1 percent to 80.463, while the U.S. currency gained 0.5 percent against the yen JPY= to 89.33 yen as rising equity markets stoked some appetite for risk, weighing on the low-yielding currency.

Traders said despite a recent bounce, sentiment on the euro remained negative. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed net short euro positions rose to a fresh record in the week to Feb. 23. [IMM/FX]

Traders said the risk of the euro falling further would increase if it ended this week below a chart support around $1.3485, which would be a 61.8 percent retracement of a move up to the November high of $1.5145 from a March low of $1.2457.

The Australian dollar AUD=D4 rose 0.5 percent to $0.8992 AUD=D4, after strong data added to investor speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia would lift the cash rate to 4 percent at a policy meeting on Tuesday. [ID:nSGE61R02I]

The Aussie also drew support earlier from higher copper prices after Saturday’s earthquake in Chile, but data showing the pace of Chinese manufacturing eased last month capped gains in the currency. [ID:nTOE62001T]

(Additional reporting by Kaori Kaneko in Tokyo)