TREASURIES-Edge higher, extend gains made on Fed minutes

July 15 (Reuters) – U.S. 10-year Treasury notes edged higher in Asian trading on Thursday, extending gains made the previous day due to weak retail sales data and a pared-back economic outlook from the Federal Reserve.

* Ten-year notes rose about 4/32 in price to yield 3.034 percent US10YT=RR, down 1 basis point from late U.S. trading on Wednesday. Ten-year note futures rose 3/32 to 122-10.5/32 TYv1.

* Two-year notes were unchanged in price to yield 0.6089 percent US2YT=RR, down about 1 basis point from late New York trading and hovering near a record low of 0.590 percent hit in late June. On Wednesday, the two-year yield had slid nearly 7 basis points for its biggest one-day drop in about six weeks.

* While the 10-year yield may head lower in the near term, a sustained drop from current levels seems unlikely, said Junji Kojima, senior deputy manager of Sompo Japan Insurance’s global securities investment department.

* “If the economy weakens too much, that may spur speculation about the possibility of further monetary easing steps and could give a lift to equities,” Kojima said.

* On the other hand, if the U.S. economy holds up relatively well that could also bode ill for Treasuries, which look a bit over-bought, Kojima said.

* Minutes from the Fed’s June policy meeting showed officials felt they should be ready to consider additional steps to boost the U.S. economy if an already softening outlook took a noticeable turn for the worse. [ID:nN14148574]

* Data on Thursday showing that China’s economy slowed in the second quarter contained no surprises, and gave little reason to think that China’s economy was headed for a sharp slowdown that could prompt market players to revise down their outlook for the global economy, said Kojima at Sompo Japan. [ID:nTOE66D06L] (Reporting by Masayuki Kitano; Editing by Michael Watson)

TREASURIES-Inch up, but 10-yr yield off 1-mth low

June 25 (Reuters) – U.S. 10-year Treasuries inched higher in Asian trade on Friday, pushing the 10-year yield back towards a one-month low hit the previous day.

Bonds

* Treasuries seem to be caught in a tug-of-war between traders betting that the 10-year yield could drop towards 3 percent and other market players that think the rally has gone far enough, said Junji Kojima, senior deputy manager for Sompo Japan Insurance’s global securities investment department.

* “I don’t think it would be a surprise if the 10-year yield makes a try for 3 percent, given the way momentum has been picking up,” Kojima said, referring to the recent rally in Treasuries.

* But Kojima added that he doubted that any such drop in yields would last that long. Current Treasury yield levels seem to be factoring in the possibility of a double-dip U.S. recession, he said, adding that such a scenario seems unlikely at this point.

* Ten-year Treasury notes rose about 3/32 in price to yield 3.123 percent US10YT=RR, down around 2 basis points from late U.S. trade on Thursday. The 10-year yield hit a one-month low of 3.065 percent on Thursday. A fall to below 3.064 percent would take the 10-year yield down to its lowest since April 2009.

* The 10-year yield has declined roughly 10 basis points this week, partly on concerns that the U.S. economy may be relapsing into weakness after a short and tepid recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s.

* Ten-year note futures edged up 2.5/32 in price to 121-13/32 TYv1. (Reporting by Masayuki Kitano; Editing by Joseph Radford)