Somali group issues video of French hostage

(Reuters) – An Islamist group in Somalia has issued a video of a French hostage held in the Horn of Africa country, showing him asking France to meet his captors’ demands.

World | France

The video appeared on a website often used by Islamist militant groups around the world, which said the hostage, named as Denis Allex, had issued a “message to the French people.”

A copy of the video issued by U.S.-based SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors militant internet traffic, shows the captive in an orange outfit with armed men standing behind him while he reads a statement in French.

Two French security advisers were kidnapped by the Shabaab rebel group in Somalia last year but one, Marc Aubriere, escaped a month later.

The Islamist group issued a statement of demands in September, which included an immediate end to French support for the Somali government and the withdrawal of African Union peacekeepers.

In the video, Allex repeats those demands and says the group will issue a list of names of prisoners it wants released. He says the defeat of President Nicolas Sarkozy’s party in recent French regional elections showed France opposes his policies.

“We ask the French people to do everything for my liberation,” he says, noting that other hostages have been released in Somalia, Sudan and Algeria.

“You can imagine my state of mind … I miss my family a lot and hope to see them as soon as possible,” he says, adding he has not been mistreated.

The message contains no threat against his life.

“The Shabaab movement made its demands to the government without any response and it is me who is paying the price by remaining in their hands as a hostage for a long time,” he said.

“Even though they have not and they are not physically abusing me, it is severely affecting my mental and psychological health.”

(Reporting by Andrew Hammond; editing by Diana Abdallah)

Somali group issues video of French hostage

DUBAI, June 9 (Reuters) – An Islamist group in Somalia has issued a video of a French hostage held in the Horn of Africa country, showing him asking France to meet his captors’ demands.

The video appeared on a website often used by Islamist militant groups around the world, which said the hostage, named as Denis Allex, had issued a “message to the French people”. A copy of the video issued by U.S.-based SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors militant internet traffic, shows the captive in an orange outfit with armed men standing behind him while he reads a statement in French. Two French security advisers were kidnapped by the Shabaab rebel group in Somalia last year but one, Marc Aubriere, escaped a month later.

The Islamist group issued a statement of demands in September, which included an immediate end to French support for the Somali government and the withdrawal of African Union peacekeepers.

In the video, Allex repeats those demands and says the group will issue a list of names of prisoners it wants released. He says the defeat of President Nicolas Sarkozy’s party in recent French regional elections showed France opposes his policies.

“We ask the French people to do everything for my liberation,” he says, noting that other hostages have been released in Somalia, Sudan and Algeria.

“You can imagine my state of mind … I miss my family a lot and hope to see them as soon as possible,” he says, adding he has not been mistreated.

The message contains no threat against his life.

“The Shabaab movement made its demands to the government without any response and it is me who is paying the price by remaining in their hands as a hostage for a long time,” he said.

“Even though they have not and they are not physically abusing me, it is severely affecting my mental and psychological health.”

(Reporting by Andrew Hammond; editing by Diana Abdallah)

Somali group issues video of French hostage

DUBAI, June 9 (Reuters) – An Islamist group in Somalia has issued a video of a French hostage held in the Horn of Africa country, showing him asking France to meet his captors’ demands.

The video appeared on a website often used by Islamist militant groups around the world, which said the hostage, named as Denis Allex, had issued a “message to the French people”. A copy of the video issued by U.S.-based SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors militant internet traffic, shows the captive in an orange outfit with armed men standing behind him while he reads a statement in French. Two French security advisers were kidnapped by the Shabaab rebel group in Somalia last year but one, Marc Aubriere, escaped a month later.

The Islamist group issued a statement of demands in September, which included an immediate end to French support for the Somali government and the withdrawal of African Union peacekeepers.

In the video, Allex repeats those demands and says the group will issue a list of names of prisoners it wants released. He says the defeat of President Nicolas Sarkozy’s party in recent French regional elections showed France opposes his policies.

“We ask the French people to do everything for my liberation,” he says, noting that other hostages have been released in Somalia, Sudan and Algeria.

“You can imagine my state of mind … I miss my family a lot and hope to see them as soon as possible,” he says, adding he has not been mistreated.

The message contains no threat against his life.

“The Shabaab movement made its demands to the government without any response and it is me who is paying the price by remaining in their hands as a hostage for a long time,” he said.

“Even though they have not and they are not physically abusing me, it is severely affecting my mental and psychological health.”

(Reporting by Andrew Hammond; editing by Diana Abdallah)

U.S. believes it killed al Qaeda No. 3

(Reuters) – Al Qaeda’s third-in-command, whose role spanned from operations to fundraising, is believed to have been killed last month in a U.S. missile strike in Pakistan, dealing a serious blow to the embattled group.

World

Sheikh Sa’id al-Masri, also known as Mustafa Abu al-Yazid, was believed to be killed along with members of his family in a strike by a pilotless CIA-operated drone attack. Al Qaeda confirmed his death in a statement on a Islamist website earlier on Monday.

“We have strong reason to believe … that al-Masri was killed recently in Pakistan’s tribal areas,” a U.S. official in Washington said on condition of anonymity. “In terms of counterterrorism, this would be a big victory.”

A Pakistani security official said Yazid was most probably killed in a missile strike in North Waziristan on the night of May 21.

“We had a report at the time that one Arab was killed in that strike with some of his family members and I think it was probably him,” said the official, who declined to be named.

The attack targeted a house owned by a tribesman some 25 km (15 miles) west of Miranshah, the main town in North Waziristan, a stronghold of al Qaeda and Taliban militants that borders Afghanistan.

Intelligence officials at the time said six militants were killed but residents said 12 people, including four women and two children, were killed. Six women and two children were wounded and treated at a hospital in Miranshah, residents said.

“He was known as Mustafa in the area. His wife was killed in the strike,” a resident of the village where attack took place said on condition of anonymity.

The U.S.-based SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors Islamist websites, said earlier on Monday that al-Qaeda announced al-Masri’s death in an Internet posting.

In addition to al-Masri, the announcement stated that his wife, three of his daughters, his granddaughter and other men, women and children were killed, according to SITE.

The CIA has stepped up the pace of unmanned aerial drone attacks, targeting not only high-level al Qaeda and Taliban targets but largely unknown foot soldiers as well.

A U.S. official said al-Masri was widely seen as al Qaeda’s No. 3 figure and its main conduit to leader Osama bin Laden.

As al Qaeda’s chief operating officer, he had a hand in everything from finances to operational planning, the official said.

CAPACITY DAMAGED, COMMITMENT REMAINS

Analysts say his death will be a major loss for al Qaeda but there would be no weakling of the group’s fighting resolve.

“Definitely it will have an impact because it was their important figure, it’s a big loss for them but there appears to be a generational change taking place in al Qaeda where new ones are replacing old ones,” said Rahimullah Yusufzai, a newspaper editor and expert on militant affairs.

“Al Qaeda’s capacity to operate and strike has been badly damaged because of their losses in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq but we have not yet seen any weakening of their commitment.”

A senior intelligence official in Islamabad said al Qaeda’s No. 3 position was “the most dangerous” rank in the group.

Five other al Qaeda leaders considered third-in-command have been killed or captured since the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, but al-Masri may be the most difficult to replace.

“They’re not getting enough people of the right caliber that they require as they were getting earlier,” the intelligence official said, crediting pressure from the drone strikes, Pakistani military actions in the tribal areas and stepped-up intelligence actions in the rest of Pakistan.

Yazid served as al Qaeda’s leader in Afghanistan and as well as al Qaeda’s “chief financial officer,” according to the U.S. 9-11 commission.

As chief financier, he was responsible for disbursing al Qaeda funds, making him one of the most trusted and important leaders of the group.

He was a founding member of Ayman al Zawahiri’s branch of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, one of the original groups that merged to form al Qaeda. Following the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981, al-Masri was implicated in the killing along with Zawahiri and others, and they spent time in jail together.

He also served as a top propagandist for al Qaeda and the Taliban.

In March, U.S. officials said a drone strike in Pakistan killed a key al Qaeda planner.

Afghan Taliban issue video of U.S. soldier Bergdahl

The Afghan Taliban issued a video on Wednesday of an American soldier captured last summer that showed him him saying “please bring me home.”

The video of Idaho National Guard Private Bowe Bergdahl was posted and described by SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors websites used by extremist groups.

The Afghan Taliban had previously issued a video of Bergdahl on Christmas Day.

“I’m a prisoner. I want to go home. You know, the Afghanistan men who are in our prisons want to go home too. Let me go. Get me to come home. Release me,” Bergdahl says, according to SITE.

The video ends with Afghan Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid saying his group demands the release of a limited number of prisoners in exchange for Bergdahl’s release, SITE said.

A Pentagon spokeswoman said: “We have seen reports of the video but we have not seen the video.”

(Reporting by Tabassum Zakaria; Editing by Eric Beech)

Osama declares decades of war on ‘powerless’ Obama

Islamabad, Sep 14 (ANI): Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has said that US President Barack Obama is “powerless” to stop the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to a transcript of a tape released by the terrorist organization’s media wing.

Al Qaeda’s As-Sahab Media released a video featuring a still image of Osama and audio statement entitled “A statement to the American people,” said the organisation IntelCenter.

SITE Intelligence Group, a terrorist-monitoring firm that translated the address, says Osama blames the wars on the “pro-Israel lobby” and corporate interests.

IntelCenter, another company that monitors terrorist propaganda, reports that the 11-minute video is an address to the American people, two days after the eighth anniversary of the September 11 attacks.

The group described the release as an address to the American public. Osama usually releases a statement around September or October each year, The Times reports.

In his last previous known message in June, Osama said US President Barack Obama had planted the seeds of “revenge and hatred” towards the United States in the Muslim world and warned of decades of conflict to come.

That audiotape aired on Qatar’s Al-Jazeera news channel less than an hour after Obama landed in Saudi Arabia.

Obama “has followed the steps of his predecessor in antagonizing Muslims… and laying the foundation for long wars,” Osama said in the June release, referring to deadly clashes in Pakistan between the US-backed government and Islamist militants.

“He gave his orders to (Pakistani President Asif Ali) Zardari and his army to prevent the people of Swat from applying Sharia (Islamic) law,” he said.

“Obama and his administration have sowed new seeds of hatred against America. Let the American people prepare to harvest the crops of what the leaders of the White House plant in the next years and decades,” said the Al-Qaeda leader. (ANI)

Pakistan Taliban says it hit Lahore to avenge Swat offensive

Pakistan Taliban says it hit Lahore to avenge Swat offensiveIslamabad – Pakistan’s Taliban claimed Thursday that it mounted a suicide attack in Lahore that killed 24 people to avenge the anti-insurgency operation in the Swat Valley, where the military said it killed another seven militants in fresh fighting.

Interior Minister Rehman Malik also blamed the Taliban hours after gunmen fired guns and detonated a car bomb Wednesday outside the offices of the police emergency response service and the military’s premier spying agency.

Among those killed was a senior officer of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, and more than 250 people were wounded.

The police building was destroyed in the attack, which also damaged the ISI offices, several nearby commercial buildings and dozens of vehicles.

“We take responsibility for the Lahore attack, which was carried out in revenge for the Swat operation,” Hakimullah Mehsud, a militant commander and close aide of local Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud, told reporters by phone.

Baitullah Mehsud heads the Pakistani Taliban and has been blamed for masterminding dozens of deadly attacks, including the suicide bombing that killed former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in December 2007.

Hakimullah Mehsud said the target had been identified soon after the security forces launched the offensive this month in the former tourist resort of Swat, 140 kilometres north-west of Islamabad.

Earlier, the US-based SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors terrorist communications, cited a Pakistani militant group named Tehrik-i-Taliban Punjab as claiming responsibility for the Lahore strike in internet postings on Turkish jihadist websites.

SITE said the relatively unknown Taliban outfit stated it “targeted the nest of evil” while describing the attack as “a humble gift to the mujahedin who suffer beneath the attacks of Pakistani forces in Swat.”

Pakistan’s military announced a “full-scale operation” in Swat on May 8 to rout Taliban fighters. Prior to the announced onslaught, bloody clashes erupted in Swat’s neighbouring districts of Lower Dir and Buner, a mountain district 100 kilometres from the capital.

Nearly 15,000 troops, backed by artillery, attack helicopters and jet aircraft, are engaged in fierce battles, including street fights in the scenic region, and have claimed they have retaken large swathes of land.

The government has reported more than 1,100 Taliban fighters and more than 60 soldiers have so far been killed in the offensive, but there was no independent confirmation of the count.

On Thursday, the military said security forces had killed seven “miscreants-terrorists” and arrested four militants over the past 24 hours.

Four soldiers also died when the militants ambushed a convoy of army trucks carrying food and relief supplies for thousands of civilians stranded in Mingora, Swat’s main city, where troops are conducting house-to-house searches to flush out the Taliban.

“Despite this unfortunate incident, the relief goods were distributed,” the military said in a statement.

The escalating conflict has forced 2.4 million people alone this month to flee their homes and take shelter in relatives’ houses and makeshift camps. The figure is on top of 555,000 people who had been displaced since August.

Pakistan’s government, with the support of political parties, the public and its Western allies, has vowed to “eliminate” the Taliban with apparent plans to expand the offensive to other militancy-plagued areas along the Afghan border.

But this comes with fears of a violent fallout in central parts of the nuclear-armed country, which has been placed by the United States at the centre of its new strategy to win the conflict in Afghanistan.

Hakimullah Mehsud also warned Thursday that the Taliban would carry out more attacks on government targets in the cities of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore and Multan.

Except Islamabad, which is a federal district, all the cities are located in Pakistan’s most prosperous province of Punjab.

Alhough the Taliban insurgency is concentrated in the country’s north-western region, several militant groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, which are based in Punjab, have developed links with hardcore elements allied with al-Qaeda.

The militants have targeted Lahore, Pakistan’s second-largest city and regarded as its cultural centre, three times in the past three months.

Gunmen ambushed the Sri Lankan cricket team in the heart of Lahore in early March, killing six police officers and two civilians. Weeks later, at least eight recruits died when militants stormed a police academy in the city’s suburbs. (dpa)

Taliban claim responsibility for Lahore blast, 50 suspects held (Lead)

Islamabad, May 28 (IANS) The Taliban have claimed responsibility for Wednesday’s car bomb blast that left 24 people dead and over 200 injured as over 50 suspects were arrested for the terror attack.

More than 50 people have been arrested in connection with the suicide blast at Rescue-15 building in Lahore’s Civil Lines area, Geo TV reported.

A deputy to Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud told the BBC by telephone the attack was in response to the army’s ongoing operation in the Swat valley.

The caller, who identified himself as Hakimullah Mehsud, threatened similar attacks in other Pakistani cities.

The military went into action April 26 after the Taliban violated a controversial peace accord with the North West Frontier Province and moved south from their Swat headquarters to occupy Buner, which is just 100 km from Islamabad.

US-based SITE Intelligence Group said that the Tehreek-e-Taliban militants made the claim in a statement posted on Turkish jihadist websites.

The group quoted the statement as saying that the attack “targeted the nest of evil in Lahore” and was an “humble gift to the Mujahideen who suffer beneath the attacks of Pakistani forces in Swat”.

It said that a vehicle laden with 100 kg explosives was blown up outside the security building in Lahore, the capital of Punjab province in Pakistan. The blast reduced the building to rubble.

The attack came two months after a team of 12 terrorists ambushed and fired rocket propelled grenades at a convoy carrying Sri Lankan players to the Lahore’s Gaddafi Stadium on March 3. Seven players and the team’s assistant coach were injured and six Pakistani police officials, who were providing protection to the bus carrying the players, were killed in the attack that shook the entire cricketing world.

Later that month, Pakistani security forces had to storm the Manawan police training academy on the outskirts of Lahore, ending a seven-hour siege by a group of heavily armed attackers who had taken over 800 trainees hostage. Four of the attackers were killed, while three were captured alive.

US-based monitor: Pakistani Taliban claims bombing in Lahore

Islamabad – A Pakistani militant group has claimed responsibility for the suicide attack in Lahore Wednesday which killed at least 24 people, a US-based organization that monitors terrorist communications said.

A group identifying itself as Tehrik-i-Taliban Punjab made the claim in internet postings on Turkish jihadist websites, according to the SITE Intelligence Group.

Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik on Wednesday also blamed Taliban militants for the devastating blast to avenge their “defeat” in the north-western Swat valley where the military was engaged in an anti-insurgency offensive.

At least 24 people, mostly security personnel, were killed and more than 250 wounded when gunmen raided the headquarters of the police emergency response service, spraying guards with automatic gunfire and setting off a car bomb.

Offices of the military-run Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency (ISI), located adjacent to the bombed site, were also damaged along with dozens of nearby buildings.

Local officials suspect the ISI might have been the actual target, but security cordons in the area prevented a direct attack.

SITE said the Taliban in their statement claimed they had “targeted the nest of evil,” while describing the attack as “a humble gift to the mujahideen who suffer beneath the attacks of Pakistani forces in Swat.”

The operation against the Taliban fighters, emboldened by a controversial peace deal with the regional government, was launched to rout the militants who had advanced to territory within 100 kilometres of the capital city, Islamabad.

Though the Taliban insurgency is concentrated in Pakistan’s north-western region bordering Afghanistan, several militant groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, which are based in Punjab in the east of the country, have developed links with hardcore elements allied with al-Qaeda.

They have targeted Lahore, the country’s second-largest city and regarded as its cultural centre, three times in the last three months.

Gunmen ambushed the Sri Lankan cricket team in the heart of Lahore in early March, killing six policemen and two civilians. Weeks later, at least eight recruits died when militants stormed a police academy in the city’s suburbs.

“Tehrik-i-Taliban Punjab asks Muslims in Pakistan to stay away from areas where the enemy is ‘taking advantage’ of them, so that they are not harmed by jihadi attacks,” SITE quoted the group as saying.

Meanwhile, investigators on Thursday were piecing together evidence collected from the site of Wednesday’s suicide attack. They said they had made progress in the investigation, but did not give any details.(dpa)

North Korea accused of threats for gaining few billion dollars

Melbourne, May 26 (ANI): North Korea has once again managed to hog world attention through its latest nuclear test, according to the founder of Stratfor, a leading US intelligence group.

North Koreans were perhaps the cagiest negotiators in the world history, said George Friedman, the founder of Stratfor.

“Our view on Korea has been consistent – a country with the gross national product of Chad has manoeuvred into a position where the Americans, Russians, Chinese, Japanese and South Koreans are trying to form a policy to induce them to talk to us,” he said.

Dr, Friedman, who was in Australia to attend the recent Sydney Writers Festival, said every few years North Korea had reached a settlement with the US and China, gained a few billion dollars, spent it, then blew something up again.

“Diplomats everywhere run around in circles,” he said, adding a treaty will be signed and billions of dollars handed over for North Korea to go away.

The North Koreans appeared to have exploded a nuclear device smaller than the atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki, but which was still far short of being a useable nuclear weapon, News.com.au reports.

Going from a device to a weapon was extraordinarily difficult and required miniaturisation and ruggedisation so it could survive takeoff on a missile and re-entry, Dr. Friedman said.

“They are so far away from a weapon that it is very difficult to calculate. But I am sure it is worth 4000 billion dollars to shut them up and have them go away for a while until the Dear Leader croaks and somebody else takes over,” he added. (ANI)

Obama did not change anything: Zawahiri

WASHINGTON: The second-ranking leader of the al-Qaida network, Ayman al-Zawahiri, said in a new video that US President Barack Obama “did not
change anything” in the Muslims’ perception of the United States, al-Qaeda monitors said.

“The new President Obama did not change anything of the image of America towards Muslims and the oppressed,” according to excerpts of Zawahiri’s statement released by the SITE Intelligence Group.

“It is America that is still killing Muslims in Palestine, Iraq, and Afghanistan,” the al-Qaida’s number two continued in the video that was released today.

“It is America that steals their fortunes, occupies their land, and supports the thieving, corrupt, and traitor rulers in their countries,” Zawahiri insisted. “And consequently, the problem is not over. Rather, it is likely to deteriorate and escalate.”

Earlier this month, Obama used his visit to Turkey to declare that the US is not and never will be at war with Islam.

But according to the monitoring group, Zawahiri insisted that the Obama administration was just conducting the same policies as the administration of former president George W Bush, but with a different face.
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Obama did not change anything: Al-Qaida

The second-ranking leader of the Al-Qaida network, Ayman al-Zawahiri, said in a new video that US President Barack Obama “did not change anything” in the Muslims’ perception of the United States, Al-Qaida monitors said.

“The new President Obama did not change anything of the image of America towards Muslims and the oppressed,” according to excerpts of Zawahiri’s statement released by the SITE Intelligence Group.

“It is America that is still killing Muslims in Palestine, Iraq, and Afghanistan,” the Al-Qaida’s number two continued in the video that was released on Monday.

“It is America that steals their fortunes, occupies their land, and supports the thieving, corrupt, and traitor rulers in their countries,” Zawahiri insisted. “And consequently, the problem is not over. Rather, it is likely to deteriorate and escalate.”

Earlier this month, Obama used his visit to Turkey to declare that the US is not and never will be at war with Islam.

But according to the monitoring group, Zawahiri insisted that the Obama administration was just conducting the same policies as the administration of former president George W Bush, but with a different face.

India watches fearfully as jihadist insurgency spreads to Pakistani Punjab: Stratfor

Washington, April 17 (IANS) As India goes to the polls, it is ‘watching fearfully as the jihadist insurgency in neighbouring Pakistan has spread to India’s doorstep in Pakistan’s Punjab province,’ says a leading intelligence group that warns of another terror attack in India soon.

‘These attacks have revealed a trend in which the Kashmiri Islamist militant proxies formerly controlled by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency are now moving into the jihadist orbit under Al Qaeda and the Taliban to carry out more complex and deadly attacks,’ US-based Stratfor said.

‘Since these are the same militants who traditionally have had their sights on India, it is very likely that India will witness another large-scale attack,’ the global intelligence company warned in its second quarter forecast.

American attempts to elicit cooperation from Pakistan through aid packages is unlikely to affect Islamabad’s behaviour significantly, it added.

Under Congress rule, India restrained itself from attacking Pakistan following the November 2008 Mumbai attack, it said, noting: ‘New Delhi’s restraint arose from fears of destabilising Pakistan further and granting the militants’ wish for a cross-border conflict to divert the Pakistani military’s attention from the Afghan-Pakistani border region toward India.’

‘As the link between Islamabad and its militant proxies grows more nebulous, India will continue to struggle to hold the Pakistani government accountable for such attacks,’ it said.

‘Yet the gradual unravelling of command and control within the Pakistani military establishment has enabled many more of Islamabad’s Islamist militant proxies operating in Pakistan and India to team up with transnational jihadists to carry out deadlier and more strategically targeted attacks.’

Noting that opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ‘is more hard-line on national security issues, and never misses an opportunity to accuse Congress of being soft on terrorism’, Stratfor said: ‘India is more likely to deliver a forceful response to future attacks should the BJP emerge victorious in these elections.

‘That said, the BJP’s Hindu nationalist mantra has turned off many Indian voters, who see the party’s anti-Muslim rhetoric as fuel for the sectarian fire, and as a good recruiting tool for the indigenous Islamist militant movement in India.’

As to foreign relations, the subtleties between Congress and BJP are barely visible, Stratfor said, noting: ‘Both want to pursue a deeper, strategic partnership with the United States’.

The BJP made noises against the India-US civil nuclear deal simply because it was in the opposition at the time and needed an issue to hammer Congress.

Regardless of the party in power, India will maintain its traditional balancing act among its allies, including the United States, Russia and more controversial friends like Iran, the group said.

Meanwhile, the left-wing parties will use their political clout to try and sway the ruling party away from the United States, though they are unlikely to have much success in determining how New Delhi conducts its foreign relations.

Numerous issues presumably would inform the Indian vote, from the pains of the global economic crisis to the Islamist militant threat emanating from Pakistan, Stratfor said, but ‘populist politics and coalition scrambling will be the strongest influences on the final results’.

It also predicted that the ‘gap between US and Pakistani policy in managing the insurgency will become more evident in the coming weeks and months as Pakistan fends off US attempts to overhaul the Pakistani intelligence apparatus and makes agreements that undermine the writ of the Pakistani state in its northwest periphery’

Pakistan’s preference to avoid combat will allow Taliban forces to concentrate their attacks on the US and NATO supply routes that originate in the port of Karachi, Stratfor said.

The New York Times wrote Friday that the Taliban have advanced deeper into Pakistan by ‘engineering a class revolt that exploits profound fissures between a small group of wealthy landlords and their landless tenants’.

The success of this strategy in the Swat valley is raising alarm about the risks to Pakistan, which remains largely feudal, the daily said. The NYT cited analysts and other government officials as warning that the strategy executed in Swat is easily transferable to Punjab.

With Pakistan unlikely to change, India faces another attack: Stratfor

Washington, April 17 (IANS) India is likely to witness another large-scale militant attack on its soil with American attempts to elicit cooperation from Pakistan through aid packages unlikely to affect Islamabad’ s behaviour significantly, a leading intelligence group has warned.

New Delhi has refrained from taking overt military action against Pakistan after the November 2008 Mumbai attacks for fear of destabilising Pakistan further and giving regional jihadists an excuse to focus their attention on India, Stratfor, the global intelligence company noted in its second quarter forecast.

‘Yet the gradual unraveling of command and control within the Pakistani military establishment has enabled many more of Islamabad’s Islamist militant proxies operating in Pakistan and India to team up with transnational jihadists to carry out deadlier and more strategically targeted attacks,’ it said.

‘Though the timing is uncertain, India is likely to witness another large-scale Islamist militant attack on its soil that will once again escalate cross-border tensions on the subcontinent,’ Stratfor warned.

The intelligence group said it would not attempt to predict the outcome of ‘this uncertain election’ in India.

‘But should the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) manage to overcome its setbacks and take the lead, Indian restraint against Pakistan would not be assured in the event of another large-scale militant attack,’ it said.

Predicting that ‘American attempts to elicit cooperation from Pakistan through aid packages are unlikely to affect Pakistani behaviour significantly in the near term,’ the intelligence firm said: ‘Though Pakistan is threatened by a separate Taliban insurgency at home, it prefers negotiations over force on its side of the border.’

‘This gap between US and Pakistani policy in managing the insurgency will become more evident in the coming weeks and months as Pakistan fends off US attempts to overhaul the Pakistani intelligence apparatus and makes agreements that undermine the writ of the Pakistani state in its northwest periphery,’ it said.

Pakistan’s preference to avoid combat will allow Taliban forces to concentrate their attacks on the US and NATO supply routes that originate in the port of Karachi, Stratfor forecast.

‘The United States is now almost completely dependent on Pakistan; the logistical burden is rising with support for the troop surge, and the militants feel emboldened as Pakistan feels it can use a lighter touch in combating them.’

India’s concerns will rise as little progress is made in the war, Stratfor said.

India has thus far stayed on the sidelines of US dealings with Pakistan and Afghanistan with its involvement largely limited to two items: First, making clear to Washington that Kashmir is not up for debate as Washington attempts to rehabilitate Pakistan, and second, increasing its presence in Afghanistan.

Much like the Iranians and the Russians, India has no interest in engaging Taliban forces who share a Pashtun link with the Pakistanis, Stratfor said.

While the overall strategic threat posed by the transnational jihadist movement continues to wane, the US-jihadist war, which stretches from Iraq to the Indian subcontinent, remains a dominant theme for 2009, Stratfor said.

‘The United States has no choice but to wrap up the war in Iraq so that it can devote more resources to the war in Afghanistan, but the transition from the Middle East to South Asia will not be easy.’

Now, Taliban, other extremist web sites cropping up in the US

Washington, Apr.9 (ANI): Of late it has emerged that American-owned firms are playing host to extemist web sites.

The latest case involves a Taliban Web site claiming to be the voice of the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan”. It has boasted of a deadly new attack on coalition forces in that country.

The most remarkable about the message is the way it has been delivered.

The words were the Taliban’s, but they were flashed around the globe by an American-owned firm located in a leafy corner of downtown Houston, the Washington Post reports.

The Texas company, a Web-hosting outfit called ThePlanet, says it simply rented cyberspace to the group and had no clue about its Taliban connections.

For more than a year, the militant group used the site to rally its followers and keep a running tally of suicide bombings, rocket attacks and raids against U.S. and allied troops.

The cost of the service: roughly 70 dollars a month, payable by credit card.

The Taliban’s account was pulled last week when a blogger noticed the connection and called attention to it.

Intelligence officials and private experts cite dozens of instances in which Islamist militants sought out U.S. Internet firms — known for their reliable service and easy terms that allow virtual anonymity-and used them to incite attacks on Americans.

“The relatively cheap expense and high quality of U.S. servers seems to attract jihadists,” said Rita Katz, co-founder of the Site Intelligence Group, a private company that monitors the communications of Muslim extremist groups.

“You can learn a lot from the enemy by watching them chat online,” said Martin Libicki, a senior policy analyst at the Rand Corp., a non-profit research organization. (ANI)

India’s support crucial to counter Islamist militancy: US think tank

Washington, April 2 (IANS) As the US seeks India’s crucial support in countering the threat of Islamist militancy, a leading US think tank says the Manmohan Singh-Obama meeting would demonstrate the US resolve to enhancing ties with New Delhi.

But India ‘will remain on guard as Obama moves forward in implementing US policy in South Asia’, Stratfor, a global intelligence company, said in an analysis as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Barack Obama met Thursday on the sidelines of the G20 summit in London.

‘Besides giving Pakistan something to chew on, Singh’s sit-down with Obama allows the United States to demonstrate its resolve to enhance ties with India, a power whose support is seen by Washington as crucial in countering the threat of Islamist militancy.’

Although India and the US have good reason to want to strengthen their strategic partnership, the Indians are not completely comfortable with Obama’s South Asia agenda, Stratfor said.

Thus ‘India will enjoy its moment in the global spotlight at the G20, but New Delhi will remain on guard as Obama moves forward in implementing US policy in South Asia’, it said.

Though New Delhi and Washington may not see eye to eye on how to manage the economic crisis, the US has a strategic interest in giving India the attention it seeks on the global stage during this summit, the intelligence group said.

‘With a jihadist war raging in Afghanistan and spreading deep into Pakistan, the United States and India are united by the common threat of Pakistani-propagated Islamist militancy.’

Noting that a ‘mixed carrot-and-stick approach of financial aid and threats of unilateral US covert action on Pakistani soil has thus far had mixed results,’ Stratfor said: ‘One pressure tactic that will always get Islamabad ‘s attention, however, is the United States’ dealings with Pakistan’s biggest foe, India.’

The US will use the Indian pressure card against Pakistan when necessary, but it needs to maintain a healthy relationship with New Delhi for this strategy to make a strong impact on the Pakistanis, it said.

The Indians want to work with the United States, but they are not big fans of Obama’s Afghanistan strategy, Stratfor said.

Apart from concerns over the US plan to provide Pakistan with $1.5 billion per year in non-military development aid for five years as well as $2.8 billion in military aid, India is not in favour of the US strategy to reach out to ‘moderate’ Taliban.

‘In New Delhi’s mind, the potential return of a fundamentalist Islamist regime with an anti-Indian agenda represents a core national security threat to India,’ Stratfor said.

Al-Qaeda issues warning to Sudanese president

Al-Qaeda issues warning to Sudanese president Cairo – Al-Qaeda’s second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri Tuesday demanded Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir “repent” for kicking the terrorist group’s leaders out of Sudan and called on the Sudanese people to “prepare for a guerrilla war against the West.”

“The Bashir regime is reaping what it sowed. It expelled those who took refuge in Sudan, including Osama bin Laden,” al-Zawahiri said in a message released Tuesday according to the Washington-based SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks messages from terrorist groups.

Egyptian-born al-Zawahiri’s message came just weeks after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for al-Bashir on charges of war crime in the Sudanese province of Darfur. The UN says up to 300,000 people have been killed and 2.5 million displaced by the conflict that started in 2003.

On the 17-minute audio recording, he called the ICC’s decision a ploy by Western powers to interfere in Sudan and urged the Sudanese people to prepare and train for a long guerrilla war against the West.

“The issue isn’t one of Darfur and solving its problems. It is about finding an excuse for more foreign interference in the Muslim countries in the framework of the contemporary crusader-Zionist campaign,” al-Zawahiri said.

Al-Qaeda loyalists, and their leader bin Laden, lived in Sudan from the early 1990s until 1996 when al-Bashir expelled them under US pressure.

“So will al-Bashir regime take the path of Islam and jihad and abandon the political manoeuvres, which has not, and will never, bring anything other than disasters and tragedies?” al-Zawahiri said. (dpa)