UPDATE 1-IMF chief sees risks from surge in capital flows

DAEJEON, South Korea, July 12 (Reuters) – Asia has emerged as a global economic powerhouse but is faced with policy challenges from rising capital inflows and needs to watch out for possible shocks from Europe, the IMF’s chief said on Monday.

Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn admitted to mistakes the International Monetary Fund made in helping several Asian countries overcome the 1997-1998 financial crisis but said its efforts eventually paid off by making the region more sound.

Strauss-Kahn also said during a conference, co-hosted by the IMF and the South Korean government, that it was working on ways to enhance or redesign its existing lending facilities and that details would be available by November.

“We may have made mistakes. Who doesn’t?,” he said during the conference in the central South Korean city of Daejeon. “We have learned how big the danger of volatile capital flows is and how big those capital flows may be.”

At the same conference, South Korean Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun urged the IMF to take steps to help prevent another financial crisis, repeating the country’s call for a strengthened network of financial safety nets.

“I belive the IMF has an important contribution to make, by proposing and enacting concrete and realistic measures to strengthen financial safety nets around the globe,” Yoon said.

Yoon said efforts from developing countries were not sufficient to withstand external shocks on increases in volume and high volatility of capital flows.

Strauss-Kahn also acknowledged the argument that the IMF’s prescriptions offered in return for rescuing Asia’s emerging economies of South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia during the 1990s crisis could have been better structured.

“We have learned also that we need to focus conditionality on the real problems, not having a long list of conditions that may have little to do with the problems at stake,” he said at the conference on Asia’s growing role in the global economy.

He warned of remaining downward risks mainly involving the fiscal crisis in Europe.

“Obviously Europe is today with low growth and some risks of crisis on the fiscal side, which means that policymakers need to remain attuned to negative shocks including capital inflows,” he said.

He repeated his previous view that the U.S. dollar will remain the world’s major reserve currency for a long time, saying it will take a long time before alternatives such as the IMF’s special drawing rights (SDRs) emerge as a reserve money. (Additional reporting by Cheon Jong-woo; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

UPDATE 2-Spain vows labour reform by June with deal or not

MADRID, May 31 (Reuters) – Spain aims to pass a long-awaited labour market reform before the end of June, with or without an agreement with unions and business leaders, Economy Minister Elena Salgado said on Monday.

Negotiations on thrashing out a deal were held on Monday after the Labour Ministry said it would extend a deadline for agreement by a week. But Salgado made clear the government would press ahead with the reforms regardless of the outcome of talks.

“The period to reach a pact on the labour market reform is coming to an end and if these talks do not produce the desired results, the government will still begin these reforms … before the end of June,” she said at a conference.

Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, who is battling to prove to nervous world markets that the euro zone’s fourth largest economy will not follow Greece into a debt crisis, got a boost on Monday from IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn.

The International Monetary Fund’s managing director praised an austerity budget package which scraped through parliament last week, but made clear more needed to be done.

“The measures that the government has been taking are strong and should help recover confidence in the future,” Strauss-Kahn said. “The issue now is to see how the measures will be implemented, especially those concerning the labour market,” he told the ABC newspaper.

The minority Socialist government maintained a neutral tone in a statement issued after the end of Monday’s talks.

“Differences between the parties still exist on some aspects of work relations that are being discussed,” the Labour Ministry statement said.

“However, the parties understand that there is still a chance of reaching an agreement so they have decided to continue talks in the coming days.”

Gerardo Diaz Ferran, chairman of Spain’s CEOE business association, said the three-way talks would continue but the participants were far from close to an agreement.

“The truth is there are still a lot of differences, significant differences, between us, and we’re not close to an agreement,” he told reporters.

“The three parties have decided it’s worth giving it a few more days to see if by doubling our efforts, which I don’t know how we’re going to do because we’re already giving all we’ve got, we can bring our positions a little closer,” he added.

POLL SLUMP

Imposing a deal without the unions’ agreement would probably set the Socialists on a collision course with their traditional allies at a time when Zapatero could use their support.

Spanish companies have long complained that burdensome hiring and firing costs discourage recruitment, exacerbating the unemployment rate which has hit 20 percent.

But with growing political opposition at home, Zapatero’s ability to push through reforms is limited.

The 15-billion-euro ($18.38 billion) austerity plan scraped through parliament by just one vote on May 27, prompting speculation that Zapatero may be forced to call early elections if his 2011 budget proposal, due in September, is rejected.

Opinion polls over the past few days show the main centre-right Popular Party would beat the Socialists by up to 10.5 percentage points if the elections were held now.

BONDS STAY CALM

Fitch Ratings agency downgraded Spanish sovereign debt to AA+ on Friday night [ID:nLDE64R25A], but markets barely reacted on Monday with 10-year bond spreads rising only five basis points against the German bund from Friday’s close.

Some analysts had expected worse after Standard & Poor’s last month downgraded Spain by one-notch to AA with a negative outlook. Fitch said its outlook on the new rating was stable.

“There’s some tolerance in this rating level,” Fitch analyst Brian Coulton told Reuters. “There will be some deterioration in the credit profile going forward but … at this point our judgment is that we will not going to be taking the rating down further in the next year.”

Spain’s two largest unions have threatened a general strike if the government tries to impose reform on its own.

Without citing sources, El Pais said the unilateral plan the government was working on would allow companies to make greater use of cheap work contracts for a broader range of employees.

At the moment, these special contracts allow some workers to be hired on the basis of reduced redundancy payments — 33 days of salary per year worked instead of the normal 45 days — in the event they are later fired.

The government has said if it is forced to try to implement its own plan, it would do it by legal decree, which still has to be approved by parliament but cannot be amended. (Additional reporting by Nigel Davies and Emma Pinedo; Editing by Jon Boyle)

Euro zone readies giant rescue package for Greece

(Reuters) – Euro zone finance ministers approved a giant 30-billion-euro ($40 billion) emergency aid mechanism for debt-plagued Greece on Sunday but stressed Athens had not requested the plan be activated yet.

Together with at least 10 billion euros expected from the International Monetary Fund in the first year, it could add up to the biggest multilateral financial rescue ever attempted.

“With today’s decision, Europe sends a very clear message that no one, any longer, can play with our common currency, no one can play with our common fate,” Greece’s Prime Minister George Papandreou said in a statement.

In a rare weekend telephone conference, finance ministers of the 16 nations that share the single European currency backed a detailed plan for Greece to borrow from euro-zone governments and the IMF at significantly below market rates.

IMF chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said the IMF was ready to provide help, possibly through a multi-year standby loan arrangement, and is set to hold talks with Greek, EU and European Central Bank officials in Brussels on April 12.

“The IMF stands ready to join the effort, including through a multi-year stand-by arrangement, to the extent needed and requested by the Greek authorities,” he said in a statement.

He welcomed the euro zone’s financial package for Greece, calling it an important step that will also help safeguard financial stability in the euro area as a whole.

A Greek Finance Ministry official said it was logical to expect the package would amount to significantly more than 40 billion euros over 3 years. Earlier in the day, he had said it could hit 80 billion euros, but later corrected this.

If Greece obtains aid, the package could dwarf past IMF bailouts for Mexico and Argentina. The largest IMF commitment ever made to a country was the $47 billion arrangement for Mexico approved in April 2009 under a so-called flexible credit line; Mexico has not drawn from the credit line.

The firepower in the Greek package, even if held in reserve, may reassure investors and make them more willing to continue buying Greek bonds. But big uncertainties remain over the longer-term prospects for reducing Greece’s debt mountain, which have dented confidence in the euro.

The Greek official said the government would decide within a few days whether to ask for the aid, depending on whether market interest rates subside.

European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said the 3-year euro zone loans would carry an interest rate of about 5 percent — well below current market rates of about 7.3 percent. That responds to Greece’s appeal to be able to borrow at rates closer to its peers in the currency area.

Assistance for subsequent years would be decided later.

“If the mechanism had to be activated, it would not be a violation of the no-bailout clause (in the European Union treaty) since the loans are repayable and contain no element of subsidy,” Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, told a Brussels news conference.

A German government official welcomed the agreement, which he said should enable Greece to do its fiscal “homework” on deficit reduction without market distraction.

“It should contribute to a calming of the markets so that Greece can take care of its homework in peace and quiet.”

Rehn said all euro zone countries would pay proportionately to their share in the ECB’s capital, making Germany by far the biggest lender, followed by France and Italy.

Talks on coordination with the IMF will begin on Monday, he said.

“GUN ON THE TABLE”

The agreement was urgently awaited because Athens is due to auction short-term debt on Tuesday after investors last week sent Greek borrowing costs spiraling due to fears of a possible default and doubts over the EU safety net.

Papandreou made clear in a newspaper interview that detailing the rescue plan was a last-ditch effort to deter speculation against his country.

“The question remains whether this mechanism will convince markets just like a gun on the table. If it does not convince them, it is a mechanism that it is there to be used,” he told the Sunday edition of To Vima.

But Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told reporters after Sunday’s decision that Greece hoped to be able to continue to borrow smoothly on financial markets.

Skepticism over Greece’s ability to manage its 300 billion euro ($400 billion) debt pile, more than its 240 billion euro annual economic output, grew last week. Investors dumped Greek stocks and bonds, and ratings agency Fitch downgraded Athens’s debt by two notches on Friday.

Fitch lowered Greece’s credit rating to BBB-, the lowest investment grade just above junk, saying a deepening recession and rising debt service costs would make it harder for Athens to meet its budget deficit reduction target.

The government has imposed tough austerity measures to meet a pledge to cut the public deficit by four percentage points of gross domestic product to 8.7 percent this year.

Juncker said data provided by Greece showed the fiscal consolidation programme were encouraging and showed Athens was on track to reach this year’s target. Rehn said Greece would not be asked for further cuts this year, but would have to take more deficit-cutting steps, notably on pensions, in following years.

Strong public opposition to any bailout for Greece in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and main paymaster, had fueled market doubts about the availability of any rescue.

Germany, the Netherlands and Austria argued that any emergency loans should be at current market rates to avoid moral hazard that would ensue if profligate countries were rewarded.

However, euro zone officials broke the deadlock on Friday, based on the IMF pricing formula with adjustments, Rehn said.

The euro, which has been dragged down by concerns over Greece and possible contagion with other weak Mediterranean euro zone economies, rebounded slightly on news of Friday’s technical agreement among deputy finance ministers and central bankers.

The risk premium that investors charge to hold Greek debt rather than benchmark 10-year German bonds narrowed to just over 400 basis points after hitting a record 454 on Thursday.

However, any durable reduction in the spread will depend on the credibility of the EU rescue plan and markets’ assessment of how likely it is to be invoked.

Greece needs to borrow about 11 billion euros by the end of May to refinance maturing debt and interest charges. Its overall 2010 borrowing requirement is 53 billion euros.

(Additional reporting by Marcin Grajewski in Brussels, Erik Kirschbaum in Berlin, Michele Kambas in Nicosia, Lesley Wroughton in Washington and Ingrid Melander in Athens; writing by Paul Taylor; editing by Michael Roddy and Gunna Dickson)

IMF set for talks on Greek aid on April 12 – IMF

WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund is ready to contribute financing for Greece through a multi-year stand-by loan arrangement and will hold talks with Greek and European officials in Brussels on April 12, IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Sunday.

Bonds

“The IMF stands ready to join the effort, including through a multi-year stand-by arrangement, to the extent needed and requested by the Greek authorities,” Strauss-Kahn said in a statement. The talks in Brussels will include the European Union and European Central Bank.

Euro zone finance ministers earlier agreed on a giant 30 billion euro emergency aid mechanism for Greece but stressed that Athens had not asked for the plan to be activated yet. [nLDE63A0BO]

(Reporting by Lesley Wroughton)

World must clean up its bad banks: IMF

Governments the world over are acting too slowly when it comes to cleaning up their banks’ balance sheets, IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn was quoted as saying on Monday.

“In Germany, other European countries or in the United States, everywhere, we are being too slow to deal with this topic,” Strauss-Kahn said in an interview with business daily Handelsblatt’s Sunday’s edition.

It was more important to find a way of helping banks rid themselves of their toxic assets, he said, than pumping money into the economy through economic stimulus packages.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will hold a crunch meeting on Tuesday to thrash out a plan to remove toxic assets from banks – an issue that has become a political hot potato in Europe’s largest economy with an election looming.

Strauss-Kahn said he saw no pick-up in the global economy until the second half of 2010 and played down the risk of inflation in the wake of massive stimulus packages being implemented by almost all major economies.

“In the short-term, the inflation risk is about zero. Today, we have more of a deflation problem,” the former French finance minister said, adding that deflation can also have a sizeable impact on growth.

U.S. sees G20 accord, Europeans demand tough rules

France and Germany joined forces on Wednesday to demand world leaders deliver on pledges of tough financial market regulation at a crisis summit, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy saying “this is not negotiable”.

Keen to secure a confidence-boosting message for voters and frazzled financial markets as the world succumbs to the deepest downturn since the Great Depression, U.S. President Barack Obama said there were no substantive differences with Europe.

Washington wanted tougher regulation too, he told a news conference with Britain’s Gordon Brown, summit host.

It was not clear whether the flashpoint, which appeared to focus primarily on Sarkozy’s demands for blacklisting of tax havens, would be enough to sour the mood and compromise the outcome.

Several hundred demonstrators clashed with riot police and smashed bank windows in London’s finance centre ahead of the summit.

Police said one person died during the protest. More protests were planned for Thursday, the main day of a summit involving the world’s biggest economies, developed and up-and-coming.

Global economic output will contract more in 2009 than any year since World War Two, says the International Monetary Fund, and IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn says the “Great Recession” could cause 50 million job losses worldwide.

G20 leaders were preparing a major expansion in resources available through the IMF, possibly including a tripling of its war chest to $750 billion, G7 sources said.

Egypt’s finance minister issued a stark warning — people will die in the world’s poorest countries if rich nations push them aside in the scramble to escape the global economic crisis.

Developed countries are borrowing heavily on international markets to fire up their economies, meaning poorer countries are increasingly unable to do so, said Youssef Boutros-Ghali, who heads the IMF’s policy committee.

MOBILISING TRILLIONS

The G20 leaders hope around two trillion dollars governments are pumping into the economy in tax cuts, building projects and green investments will limit the depth and duration of recession and maybe create 20 million or so new jobs.

They were also looking to drum up more than $500 billion and maybe substantially more in funding the IMF can use to bail out economies which head into balance of payments troubles.

As the leaders dined with Queen Elizabeth at Buckingham Palace, officials were hammering away at details of what they would announce the following day.

Paris and Berlin fear the summit will fall short of the mark on regulation of tax havens, hedge funds and markets in general, and went in gunning for concrete announcements on that front.

“Any regulations we don’t agree here, won’t be agreed for the next five years,” Merkel told a joint news conference with her French counterpart. “The summit is not about horsetrading between regulation and economic growth programmes.”

“In the results, we want the principle of new regulation to be a major objective … This is not negotiable,” Sarkozy added.

Obama, making his first official visit to Europe, said G20 nations were not going to agree on every point but brushed aside suggestions the summit would falter because countries were split over the importance of regulation versus new stimulus packages.

“The core notion that government has to take some steps to deal with a contracting global market place and that we should be promoting growth — that’s not in dispute,” Obama said.

“On the regulatory side, this notion that somehow there are those who are pushing for regulation and those who are resisting regulation is belied by the facts.”

The stakes are high, more so in the developing world.

Mexico’s central bank said it had asked to tap a $47 billion International Monetary Fund credit line, the latest Latin American country to seek help from the multilateral lender in an effort to navigate the global economic crisis.

World stock prices meanwhile built on a recent recovery, but worries over banks and growth continued to haunt markets in Europe and analysts said many investors remained on the sidelines, edgy over what message the summit would generate.

French President Sarkozy earlier threatened to disassociate himself from any “false compromises” at the summit, the second such meeting of world leaders to try to tackle the problems created by the downturn and credit crunch, which in turn began when the U.S. housing market collapsed over two years ago.

In a further sign of division, Japan criticised the German approach. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso was quoted as saying that Germany did not understand the importance of fiscal stimulus.

Brown stuck to an upbeat note, though. “We are within a few hours, I think, of agreeing a global plan for economic recovery and reform and I think the significance of this is that we are looking at every aspect,” he said.

U.S. sees G20 accord, Europeans demand tough rules

France and Germany joined forces on Wednesday to demand world leaders deliver on pledges of tough financial market regulation at a crisis summit, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy saying “this is not negotiable”.

Keen to secure a confidence-boosting message for voters and frazzled financial markets as the world succumbs to the deepest downturn since the Great Depression, U.S. President Barack Obama said there were no substantive differences with Europe.

Washington wanted tougher regulation too, he told a news conference with Britain’s Gordon Brown, summit host.

It was not clear whether the flashpoint, which appeared to focus primarily on Sarkozy’s demands for blacklisting of tax havens, would be enough to sour the mood and compromise the outcome.

Several hundred demonstrators clashed with riot police and smashed bank windows in London’s finance centre ahead of the summit.

Police said one person died during the protest. More protests were planned for Thursday, the main day of a summit involving the world’s biggest economies, developed and up-and-coming.

Global economic output will contract more in 2009 than any year since World War Two, says the International Monetary Fund, and IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn says the “Great Recession” could cause 50 million job losses worldwide.

G20 leaders were preparing a major expansion in resources available through the IMF, possibly including a tripling of its war chest to $750 billion, G7 sources said.

Egypt’s finance minister issued a stark warning — people will die in the world’s poorest countries if rich nations push them aside in the scramble to escape the global economic crisis.

Developed countries are borrowing heavily on international markets to fire up their economies, meaning poorer countries are increasingly unable to do so, said Youssef Boutros-Ghali, who heads the IMF’s policy committee.

MOBILISING TRILLIONS

The G20 leaders hope around two trillion dollars governments are pumping into the economy in tax cuts, building projects and green investments will limit the depth and duration of recession and maybe create 20 million or so new jobs.

They were also looking to drum up more than $500 billion and maybe substantially more in funding the IMF can use to bail out economies which head into balance of payments troubles.

As the leaders dined with Queen Elizabeth at Buckingham Palace, officials were hammering away at details of what they would announce the following day.

Paris and Berlin fear the summit will fall short of the mark on regulation of tax havens, hedge funds and markets in general, and went in gunning for concrete announcements on that front.

“Any regulations we don’t agree here, won’t be agreed for the next five years,” Merkel told a joint news conference with her French counterpart. “The summit is not about horsetrading between regulation and economic growth programmes.”

“In the results, we want the principle of new regulation to be a major objective … This is not negotiable,” Sarkozy added.

Obama, making his first official visit to Europe, said G20 nations were not going to agree on every point but brushed aside suggestions the summit would falter because countries were split over the importance of regulation versus new stimulus packages.

“The core notion that government has to take some steps to deal with a contracting global market place and that we should be promoting growth — that’s not in dispute,” Obama said.

“On the regulatory side, this notion that somehow there are those who are pushing for regulation and those who are resisting regulation is belied by the facts.”

The stakes are high, more so in the developing world.

Mexico’s central bank said it had asked to tap a $47 billion International Monetary Fund credit line, the latest Latin American country to seek help from the multilateral lender in an effort to navigate the global economic crisis.

World stock prices meanwhile built on a recent recovery, but worries over banks and growth continued to haunt markets in Europe and analysts said many investors remained on the sidelines, edgy over what message the summit would generate.

French President Sarkozy earlier threatened to disassociate himself from any “false compromises” at the summit, the second such meeting of world leaders to try to tackle the problems created by the downturn and credit crunch, which in turn began when the U.S. housing market collapsed over two years ago.

In a further sign of division, Japan criticised the German approach. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso was quoted as saying that Germany did not understand the importance of fiscal stimulus.

Brown stuck to an upbeat note, though. “We are within a few hours, I think, of agreeing a global plan for economic recovery and reform and I think the significance of this is that we are looking at every aspect,” he said.