SYDNEY, April 8 (Reuters) – Rabobank raised its forecast for Australia’s 2010/11 wheat harvest by 9 percent on Thursday, after soaking rains in many grain-growing regions.
The Dutch-owned bank estimated a harvest of 21.8 million tonnes, up from its March 4 forecast of 20 million tonnes.
It cautioned that rain over the next two months would be critical to the outlook as farmers starting seeding crops for harvesting, which usually starts in October.
Australia, the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter, reaped 21.7 million tonnes of grain in 2009/10, the second straight year of an above-average crop as production continued to recover from a severe drought in eastern Australia.
The Australia wheat crop has averaged 18.3 million tonnes over the five years to 2009/10, hurt by the drought which cut the harvest to as little as 10.6 million tonnes in 2006/07.
Rabobank said wheat acres were likely to be less than last year as farmers switched to crops offering higher returns such as cotton and pulses, including chickpeas and lentils.
The government’s commodity forecaster estimated in March that 13.1 million hectares were planted with wheat in 2009/10.
Estimates of Australia’s 2010/11 wheat crop from private and government forecasters:
* Rabobank Australia
Crop: 21.8 million tonnes
Issued: April 8
Next update: to be advised
Methodology: Based on a mix of analysis and anecdotal information from a network of contacts through Rabobank’s branches in Australia. Information is received from farmers on planting expectations, with updates on yield expectations as the season progresses.
* Australian Crop Forecasters (private consultant) Crop: 22.5 million tonnes
Issued: April 6
Next update: to be advised.
Methodology: Based on surveys of industry participants, the group’s private database, physical inspections and on-the-ground contacts.
* National Australia Bank
Crop: 22.6 million tonnes
Issued: Mar 26:
Next update: to be advised
Methodology: Based on information from the bank’s regional agribusiness managers’ network and surveys with regional industry participants and economists.
* U.S. Department of Agriculture Canberra attache Crop: 22 million tonnes.
Issued: March 18
Next update: to be advised
Methodology: Field surveys, information from industry sources, “all sources”.
* Commonwealth Bank of Australia
Crop: 20 million tonnes
Issued: March 4
Next update: to be advised
Methodology: Surveys of growers, bank staff in the field and industry officials. Modelled yields based on observed seasonal conditions plus medium term seasonal outlook.
* Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (government department)
Crop: 21.94 million tonnes.
Issued: March 2
Next Update: June 16
Methodology: Based on physical farm survey data, information from bulk handlers and state agricultural departments and computer modelling.
RECENT PRODUCTION
YEAR Million tonnes
2009/10 21.656 (ABARE)
2008/09 20.938
2007/08 13.039 (drought)
2006/07 10.641 (drought)
2005/06 25.173
2004/05 21.905
2003/04 26.132 (record)
2002/03 10.132 (drought)
2001/02 24.299
EXPORTS
YEAR Million tonnes
2009/10 13.874 (ABARE forecast)
2008/09 14.568
2007/08 7.444
2006/07 8.685
2005/06 15.969
2004/05 14.675
2003/04 17.867
2002/03 9.107
2001/02 16.317
KEY FACTS
- Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter, with about 8 percent of world trade. Its major customer is Indonesia.
The wheat export industry was liberalised in 2008 when a monopoly held by AWB Ltd (AWB.AX), the former Australian Wheat Board, was replaced with a system of licensed exporters.
AWB is one of the licensed exporters, competing with groups such as Cargill Inc [CARG.UL], Louis Dreyfus, Glencore International and Bunge. (Compiled by Bruce Hextall)