SAS says to boost Scandinavian flights due demand

July 13 (Reuters) – Loss-making airline SAS (SAS.ST) said on Tuesday that it would increase flights on some Scandinavian routes due to strong demand.

SAS was badly hit by the global downturn and has had to slash costs and raise cash via a rights issue. But the airline was upbeat about its home markets

“Apart from the fact that we have planes which are record full, we also see a positive development in our Scandinavian network…,” SAS commercial chief Robin Kamark said in a statement.

“SAS will raise the number of depatures in the autumn within Scandinavia due to strong demand,” the company added. The new flights would come on the Stockholm-Copenhagen and Stockholm-Oslo routes. (Reporting by Patrick Lannin)

WRAPUP 1-China’s exporters need not fear freer yuan: Mofcom

BEIJING, June 25 (Reuters) – China’s Ministry of Commerce, a long-standing opponent of a stronger yuan, fell into line on Friday behind the scrapping of the currency’s peg to the dollar but said the exchange rate would climb only gradually.

The ministry has traditionally resisted a rise in the yuan CNY=CFXS, arguing it would spell bankruptcy for many export-oriented manufacturers working on thin margins.

But Vice Commerce Minister Jiang Yaoping said the impact of the exchange rate was secondary to a host of other factors, including final demand, wages, the cost of raw materials, the level of interest rates and tax rates.

“Looking at the timing of China’s currency reform, we can say that the overall benefits to exports are greater than the damage,” he told a forum.

The People’s Bank of China said on Saturday that it would once again allow the yuan to move more freely after having kept the currency more or less pegged to the dollar for two years to provide stability for exporters during the global downturn.

The yuan has risen about 0.5 percent against the dollar since then to its highest level since its July 2005 revaluation, though gains have been kept in check by big state-owned banks. [CNY/] <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Full coverage [ID:nCHINATAKE]

PDF on yuan: r.reuters.com/fuk43m

Yuan microsite: china.thomsonreuters.com/yuan/

Yuan graphics: r.reuters.com/byq23m

Insider TV

-- Yuan to rise before G20 link.reuters.com/jes92m

-- Yuan shows confidence link.reuters.com/hyc33m

-- Some see delay tactic link.reuters.com/xad33m ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

Jiang cited conditions in 2005-2008, when Chinese exports continued to grow strongly despite a cumulative 21 percent rise in the yuan against the dollar.

But he said the pace of future currency appreciation would be gradual and rejected charges that China was unfairly holding down the yuan to give its companies an advantage in global markets.

Some Western economists believe the yuan is undervalued by as much as 40 percent.

Jiang sidestepped a question about whether exporters could cope with a yuan rise of 3 to 5 percent within a year, saying the rate of appreciation would be decided by the market.

“First, China’s yuan currency reform will be gradual. Second, accusations that China is manipulating its currency are groundless. The facts have proved that it’s not true.”

NOT TOO QUICK

A second government official also ruled out a big move in the yuan in coming months and said last Saturday’s announcement was timed to take pressure off China at this weekend’s summit of Group of 20 leading economies in Toronto.

“In the longer term, the yuan will appreciate but only very gradually,” the official, who declined to be identified, said.

The comments are likely to be grist for the mill of U.S. lawmakers who are sceptical of China’s willingness to permit a substantial rise in the value of a currency they argue is kept deliberately undervalued, to the detriment of U.S. jobs.

As the dominant player in China’s tightly controlled currency market, the PBOC could let the yuan appreciate more swiftly by scaling back its purchases of dollars.

Thanks to the central bank’s intervention down the years, China has built a stockpile of official currency reserves worth $2.45 trillion at the end of March.

With Congress weighing legislation to prod Beijing to relax its grip, U.S. President Barack Obama said China had made progress by announcing greater currency flexibility, but it was too early to say whether it would go far enough.

“The initial signs were positive. But it is too early to tell whether the appreciation, that will track the market, is sufficient to allow for the rebalancing that we think is appropriate,” Obama said on Thursday. [ID:nN24164984]

The PBOC has said the main aim of reverting to the managed float that it suspended in mid-2008 is to inject more two-way volatility into the currency, not to propel it sharply higher.

Some economists have speculated that the central bank, to underline its point, might let the yuan decline at times, for instance if the euro were to fall further against the dollar.

But the second government official ruled out this option as a political non-starter.

“It would be too costly because it would lead to more criticism and pressure from the international community,” he said.

“You know, so many eyes are now trained on China’s foreign exchange policy.” (Additional reporting by Aileen Wang; Editing by Kim Coghill)

WRAPUP 1-China’s exporters need not fear freer yuan: Mofcom

BEIJING, June 25 (Reuters) – China’s Ministry of Commerce, a long-standing opponent of a stronger yuan, fell into line on Friday behind the scrapping of the currency’s peg to the dollar but said the exchange rate would climb only gradually.

The ministry has traditionally resisted a rise in the yuan CNY=CFXS, arguing it would spell bankruptcy for many export-oriented manufacturers working on thin margins.

But Vice Commerce Minister Jiang Yaoping said the impact of the exchange rate was secondary to a host of other factors, including final demand, wages, the cost of raw materials, the level of interest rates and tax rates.

“Looking at the timing of China’s currency reform, we can say that the overall benefits to exports are greater than the damage,” he told a forum.

The People’s Bank of China said on Saturday that it would once again allow the yuan to move more freely after having kept the currency more or less pegged to the dollar for two years to provide stability for exporters during the global downturn.

The yuan has risen about 0.5 percent against the dollar since then to its highest level since its July 2005 revaluation, though gains have been kept in check by big state-owned banks. [CNY/] <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Full coverage [ID:nCHINATAKE]

PDF on yuan: r.reuters.com/fuk43m

Yuan microsite: china.thomsonreuters.com/yuan/

Yuan graphics: r.reuters.com/byq23m

Insider TV

-- Yuan to rise before G20 link.reuters.com/jes92m

-- Yuan shows confidence link.reuters.com/hyc33m

-- Some see delay tactic link.reuters.com/xad33m ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

Jiang cited conditions in 2005-2008, when Chinese exports continued to grow strongly despite a cumulative 21 percent rise in the yuan against the dollar.

But he said the pace of future currency appreciation would be gradual and rejected charges that China was unfairly holding down the yuan to give its companies an advantage in global markets.

Some Western economists believe the yuan is undervalued by as much as 40 percent.

Jiang sidestepped a question about whether exporters could cope with a yuan rise of 3 to 5 percent within a year, saying the rate of appreciation would be decided by the market.

“First, China’s yuan currency reform will be gradual. Second, accusations that China is manipulating its currency are groundless. The facts have proved that it’s not true.”

NOT TOO QUICK

A second government official also ruled out a big move in the yuan in coming months and said last Saturday’s announcement was timed to take pressure off China at this weekend’s summit of Group of 20 leading economies in Toronto.

“In the longer term, the yuan will appreciate but only very gradually,” the official, who declined to be identified, said.

The comments are likely to be grist for the mill of U.S. lawmakers who are sceptical of China’s willingness to permit a substantial rise in the value of a currency they argue is kept deliberately undervalued, to the detriment of U.S. jobs.

As the dominant player in China’s tightly controlled currency market, the PBOC could let the yuan appreciate more swiftly by scaling back its purchases of dollars.

Thanks to the central bank’s intervention down the years, China has built a stockpile of official currency reserves worth $2.45 trillion at the end of March.

With Congress weighing legislation to prod Beijing to relax its grip, U.S. President Barack Obama said China had made progress by announcing greater currency flexibility, but it was too early to say whether it would go far enough.

“The initial signs were positive. But it is too early to tell whether the appreciation, that will track the market, is sufficient to allow for the rebalancing that we think is appropriate,” Obama said on Thursday. [ID:nN24164984]

The PBOC has said the main aim of reverting to the managed float that it suspended in mid-2008 is to inject more two-way volatility into the currency, not to propel it sharply higher.

Some economists have speculated that the central bank, to underline its point, might let the yuan decline at times, for instance if the euro were to fall further against the dollar.

But the second government official ruled out this option as a political non-starter.

“It would be too costly because it would lead to more criticism and pressure from the international community,” he said.

“You know, so many eyes are now trained on China’s foreign exchange policy.” (Additional reporting by Aileen Wang; Editing by Kim Coghill)

PBOC adviser sees yuan rising 3 pct vs dlr in 2010

June 24 (Reuters) – The yuan is likely to rise about 3 percent against the dollar by the end of this year, assuming the euro stays around current levels against the U.S. dollar, Li Daokui, a central bank adviser, said on Thursday.

Li, one of three academic members of the People’s Bank of China monetary policy advisory committee, said the reform of the exchange rate regime announced at the weekend would help tame inflation.

But, in an interview with Reuters, Li said depegging of the yuan would have a limited impact on China’s interest rate decision-making.

Li, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, also said freeing up the yuan was unlikely to trigger big inflows or outflows of capital.

The PBOC said on Saturday that it would once again let the yuan move more freely after having kept the currency more or less pegged to the dollar for two years to provide stability for exporters during the global downturn.

The yuan CNY=CFXS drifted slightly lower on Thursday to around 6.8141 per dollar, representing a rise of about 0.2 percent since the long-awaited policy shift. [CNY/] (Reporting by Chen Min and Alan Wheatley; Editing by Chris Lewis)

Analysis: After China’s words on yuan, world now awaits deeds

(Reuters) – Ambassadors to China are only occasionally summoned by the foreign ministry to be told that an announcement of international significance is due.

China

That was the case at 6 p.m. on Saturday.

Within the hour, China had duly ditched the yuan’s 23-month old peg to the dollar that has been a lightning rod for criticism that Beijing has been gaining an unfair trade advantage during the global downturn by artificially holding down its currency.

Despite the disruption to their evening plans, the envoys did not go away disappointed. This was big news.

But the potential for political and market disappointment in the months to come remains considerable.

For the consensus among China-watchers is that the central bank will initially be cautious about taking advantage of the permission it has been granted to revert to the flexibility it enjoyed before the yuan was effectively repegged near 6.83 per dollar in mid-2008 to provide stability during the global crisis.

In the three years following an initial 2.1 percent revaluation of the yuan on July 21, 2005, the currency gained a further 19 percent.

But in those first remaining months of 2005, the appreciation was just 0.56 percent.

A repeat of that snail’s pace of climb will infuriate U.S. lawmakers who, while welcoming China’s policy shift, want to see words followed by deeds.

No one knows what will happen in the days and weeks to come. Predictability and transparency are not hallmarks of China’s policy.

As Qing Wang, Morgan Stanley’s chief China economist, put it in a note: “The best way to characterize this policy move is as a ‘switch to the pre-crisis regime’. Anything that has happened under the previous regime can happen now going forward.”

UNDER PRESSURE

But there are several reasons to assume that gradualism will be the initial watchword:

Firstly, the economics. In its statement, the People’s Bank of China noted — correctly — that its external surpluses have been falling. As such, it said, “the basis for large-scale appreciation of the RMB exchange rate does not exist.”

The debt woes of the euro zone, China’s biggest trading partner, will merely reinforce this judgment.

Second, the politics. The decision was so important, according to two informed sources, that it was taken by the country’s highest decision-making body, the nine-member Standing Committee of the ruling Communist Party’s Politburo.

A stronger currency is in China’s interest because it will add momentum to domestic demand. This dovetails with the Party’s strategy to spread wealth, reduce yawning income equalities and reduce reliance on investment-heavy export industries. A firmer yuan will also help cap incipient inflationary pressures.

Letting the yuan rise should also cool anti-China sentiment in the U.S. Congress, for now at least, and fend off the risk of China’s being declared a currency manipulator by the U.S. Treasury. Those are all important pluses for China.

Still, the shift could expose China’s leaders to criticism by nationalists that they have acted under external duress, a perceived loss of face that would be compounded if they were then to let the yuan rise at a rapid rate of knots.

“The message to the outside world is: don’t pressure us,” said Li Daokui, an academic adviser to the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China, the central bank.

Another economist with direct knowledge of the workings of the central bank’s committee agreed.

“You’ve backed us into a corner this time. Don’t do it again,” would be the thrust of what President Hu Jintao tells the Group of 20 summit in Toronto at the end of this week, he said.

FOCUS STILL ON DOLLAR

This person, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue, said the PBOC had held serious discussions about depegging the yuan as far back as December.

The central bank wanted more autonomy in monetary policy, which was partly hostage to the Federal Reserve’s stance due to the dollar link, but could not overcome opposition from pro-export lobbies.

He said the PBOC was likely to revert to a crawling peg against the dollar — as was the case from July 2005-2008 — because the concept of managing the yuan against a basket of currencies was too complicated to convey to politicians.

Finally, he said appreciation was likely to resume eventually at the same pace as prior to mid-2008, in other words about 7 percent a year.

“Some years it could be 8 percent, other years it might be 5 percent. But you can forget a 30 percent increase. We haven’t forgotten what happened to Japan,” this insider said.

China blames the long years of slow growth and deflation suffered by Japan on its acquiescence, under foreign pressure, to a sharp rise in the yen as part of the 1985 Plaza accord.

Andy Rothman, a strategist at brokerage CLSA in Shanghai, broadly shared this analysis. He said he expected appreciation of about only 0.2 percent a month until Europe stabilizes.

“Then look for the appreciation to return to the 5-7 percent pace of the 2005-2007 period,” Rothman said in a note.

He, too, said China was likely to focus almost exclusively on the yuan exchange rate against the dollar, despite lip service to managing the exchange rate with reference to a basket of currencies.

NO SALVATION FOR GLOBAL IMBALANCES

China’s shift is an important ingredient in helping to rebalance its economy and hence the global economy. So is the round of big pay increases in southern China. Both increase domestic purchasing power.

But the macroeconomic forces that determine savings and investment rates, and hence a country’s external balance, are complex and slow-burning. A rising yuan, by itself, will be no more of a game changer for global imbalances today than it was from 2005-2008.

The aging of China’s working population from mid-decade, which will erode its savings rate, will be more of a watershed.

“For the near term, the rate of appreciation will be slow enough as to have no material impact on Chinese exports,” Rothman wrote.

And, as U.S.-China Business Council President John Frisbie said, a change in the yuan may not have much of an impact on China’s all-important trade balance with the United States.

“On the import side, much of what we import from China is stuff that we imported from elsewhere before; if we didn’t import it from China, we’d likely just import it from somewhere else,” he said in a statement.

Moreover, the group’s members have never cited the yuan’s exchange rate as an impediment to exporting to China.

“Macroeconomics says an appreciating RMB would likely have some effect on trade flows, but the reality is probably not very much,” Frisbie said.

(Editing by Neil Fullick)

UPDATE 1-M.Stanley new property fund half size of previous

TOKYO/HONG KONG, June 11 (Reuters) – Morgan Stanley (MS.N)
has raised $4.7 billion for its new global property fund, MSREF
VII, 46 percent less than its previous such fund.

Fundraising for MSREF Vll came after the global financial
crisis and after media reports said Morgan Stanley had told
investors that its previous real estate fund, MSREF VI, could
lose as much as $5.4 billion.

“At $4.7 billion of capital commitments, MSREF VII Global
is the largest real estate fund to close since 2008,” the
spokesman said in a statement. “Morgan Stanley … is
well-positioned to take advantage of the significant investment
opportunities this part of the real estate cycle presents to
us.”

The MSREF VI fund had raised $8.8 billion in 2007. In April,
it won an agreement with lenders for a 60-day extension on about
$2.4 billion in loans used in a troubled hotel investment in
Japan. [ID:nTOE63P075]

In 2008, a banking source said Morgan Stanley hoped to raise
$10 billion for MSREF VII, but the global downturn made it tough
for companies to raise funds globally.

The PERE magazine said in a recent report that Morgan
Stanley had begun to invest its latest fund mainly in the United
States, Europe and Japan after allowing limited partners to
reduce their commitments.

The magazine quoted Morgan Stanley executives as saying that
it was actively sourcing new deals in the United States, with
the firm looking to access distressed equity through debt
structures.
(See www.reutersrealestate.com for Reuters’ global service for
real estate professionals)
(Editing by Will Waterman)

UPDATE 1-SAS sells Estonian Air stake to govt

STOCKHOLM, June 4 (Reuters) – Scandinavian airline SAS (SAS.ST) agreed on Friday to sell its 49 percent stake in Estonian Air, giving the Baltic state a 90 percent share in the regional carrier.

SAS has been selling off non-core assets as it looks to turn its business around after years of losses.

SAS, half-owned by Sweden, Norway and Denmark, said the Estonian government would raise around 205 million crowns ($26.2 million) of new capital for Estonian Air in a rights issue and SAS would convert about 20 million of loans into equity.

The deal will be neutral in terms of profit and liquidity to SAS, the airline said.

After the rights issue the Estonian government will hold 90 percent of Estonian Air and SAS 10 percent. Estonian Air will continue to carry loans of around 70 million crowns owed to SAS that mature in 2014.

SAS has struggled for years with an unwieldy business structure and higher staff costs than rivals and was hit badly by the global downturn, making a 3.4 billion crown pretax loss in 2009.

A volcanic eruption in Iceland that closed European airspace for part of April added to the airline’s woes, and it lost another 972 million crowns in the first quarter this year. [ID:nLDE63L0BA] (Editing by Will Waterman) ($1=7.817 Swedish Crown)

Infrastructure lemons may squeeze China banks

(Reuters) – Chinese banks could be headed for a crisis similar in some ways to what their Wall Street counterparts faced two years ago, as a chunk of the $1 trillion they made in dubious infrastructure loans to local governments looks set to sour.

And though the banks have lined up tens of billions of dollars in new capital-raising, they could be forced to raise billions more if China’s property market sees a sharp downturn.

Lending on a wide range of projects — from high speed railways to airports and bridges — mushroomed in China last year as Beijing launched a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package to keep the economy humming during the global downturn.

But as Beijing moves to cool its now racing economy, including a red-hot real estate market, fears are mounting that local governments that depend on land sales for up to 45 percent of their revenues may be unable to pay back their massive loans.

Chinese banks may have as much as 7 trillion yuan in loans to local government infrastructure projects on their books, with 30-50 percent of that likely to go sour, estimated Stephen Green, China economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

“It’s like a time-bomb,” said Fan Kunxiang, analyst at Haitong Securities. “No one knows exactly how big the problem is or when it is going to explode. If one or two infrastructure projects fail, that would cause panic in the market.”

The sheer scale and nature of the problem is unclear due to opaque borrowing practices by local governments.

To better understand it, China’s banking regulator has launched an industry-wide investigation slated for completion by the end of this month.

The regulator has already ordered a drastic slowdown in infrastructure lending, and is the main force driving banks to raise billions of dollars in new capital to bolster their balance sheets against potential future losses.

All of China’s major lenders have announced various capital raising plans, hitting shares of top lenders like ICBC (1398.HK) (601398.SS), Bank of China (2388.HK) (601988.SS) and China Construction Bank (0939.HK) (601939.SS), even as all three reported record quarterly profits.

“The government is auditing local governments’ infrastructure projects, so I think the concern there is that regulators will force the banks to increase their provisions,” said CLSA equity strategist Christopher Wood.

SPECIAL VEHICLES, WHITE ELEPHANTS

China’s cash-strapped local governments have devised a system of financial smoke and mirrors to facilitate their infrastructure spending binge, often using special vehicles backed by land as collateral to finance projects with little chance of success.

Some 8,000 such vehicles now exist in China, half of them created over the past 18 months alone, according to Credit Suisse economist Dong Tao.

But many of the projects being built through such vehicles hardly look commercially viable.

In one exemplary case, Jiamusi, a small city in northeastern Heilongjiang province, plans to build a high-tech maglev train, even as a similar project in Shanghai, China’s commercial hub, continues to struggle years after starting operation.

Another case in Shanghai demonstrates how funds lent to such vehicles can often be abused for spending that has nothing to do with infrastructure. That saw a Shanghai district borrow 2 billion yuan in the name of a high-speed rail project, only to spend 1.3 billion on non-related matters like resettlement compensation, according to a state audit.

“No one really understands how much revenue-generating capability these projects have, how much land sales can help local governments repay, or how much these projects will add to growth,” Standard Chartered’s Green said.

“In other countries, these projects began with a budget, while in China, it’s all done off government balance sheets.”

Credit Suisse’s Tao warned that many such vehicles look alarmingly similar to those used by Wall Street banks that set off the global crisis, in terms of their high leverage, land-based valuations and lack of asset liquidity and transparency.

He said a crisis could blow up as soon as in 2011, triggered by a property market downturn as Beijing takes harsh steps to curb real estate speculation.

Such a crisis would not only affect major lenders, but also thousands of smaller institutions such as city commercial banks and rural credit co-operatives that typically have close ties with local governments, said Green.

Green added that one of the most basic problems lies in the current ban on local governments issuing bonds directly, a common practice in other countries.

“Fundamentally you need local government fiscal reform … and that implies local governments are held accountable for their debts and that’s very, very hard to do in this system,” he said.

($1=6.83 Yuan)

(Editing by Doug Young and Muralikumar Anantharaman)

China’s Wen: second global downturn possible

May 31 (Reuters) – Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao warned on Monday that global economic growth remained vulnerable to sovereign debt risks and the possibility of a second downturn, while saying his own country’s growth remain on track.

Currencies | Bonds

“The world economy is stable and beginning to revive, but this revival is slow and there are many uncertainties and destabilising factors,” Wen told a meeting with Japanese business leaders in Tokyo.

Wen mentioned problems of countries including Greece and added: “Is this phenomenon over? Now it seems that it is not so simple.” (Reporting by Chris Buckley)

Australian treasurer rebuts mining tax “myths”

Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan on Sunday described as “myths” claims a planned new 40 percent tax on mining profits would hit investment or push up domestic prices.

In a weekly economic note, Swan said the new 40 percent Resource Super Profits tax would replace an inefficient royalties system and as a result, should boost investment.

Prices of most commodities subject to the tax were set on international markets, he said, and treasury analysis showed it should not affect prices of coal, gas or electricity within Australia.

The new tax has caused an outcry from miners since it was announced earlier this month. They have put a series of major projects on hold and have been backed by the conservative opposition, which has vowed to cancel the tax if it wins an election due later this year.

In a recorded interview broadcast on Sunday, Fortescue Metals Group chief executive Andrew Forrest said the resources sector had saved Australia during the global downturn from a crisis like that of Greece, and the new tax threatened its future by deterring investment.

However, Swan said mining companies were currently getting a better deal than the average Australian taxpayer.

Thanks to various concessions, Australian-owned mining companies currently pay an effective 17 percent rate of company tax, he said, while foreign-owned companies paid just 13 percent. Those figures are far below the official company tax rate of 30 percent and well below the effective rates paid by the retail and manufacturing industries, he said.

“All companies in Australia are required to pay company tax. But very few businesses receive as their primary input the non-renewable resources that belong to the Australian people,” Swan said.

“No other business would try to argue that they should get their primary input for free courtesy of the Australian people just because they pay company tax — and neither should Australia’s largest mining companies.

“In our tax system, an ordinary worker who earns an extra dollar through their hard work pays higher tax, but a mining company that earns massive amounts pays the same flat, low rate of company tax.”

Swan also denied the tax would harm existing projects, saying mining companies would receive “generous recognition of their past investment costs”.

However, Fortescue chief Forrest said in his interview with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that bankers had pulled out of some planned Fortescue projects, including the $9 billion Solomon Hub project in Western Australia state, to create a 160 million tonnes a year iron ore mine.

China is a key customer for Australia’s resources, particularly iron ore, and Forrest said a note from a Chinese consulate had made clear that the tax had undermined Australia’s competitive advantage.

“(It) said, Australia’s competitive advantage to China, over Brazil, over India, over these massive competitors Australia competes against, that competitive advantage we did have is now gone,” Forrest said.

China is a key customer for Australia’s resources, particularly iron ore, and Forrest said a note from a Chinese consulate had made clear the tax undermined Australia’s competitive advantage.

“(It) said, Australia’s competitive advantage to China, over Brazil, over India, over these massive competitors Australia competes against, that competitive advantage we did have is now gone,” Forrest said.

The new tax is set to raise about A$12 billion ($11 billion) in its first two years and is due to be implemented from July 2012. Since it was announced a series of mining companies have suspended major investment projects.

(Editing by Jerry Norton)

UPDATE 1-Dongfeng Motor says sees M&A opportunities overseas

HONG KONG, April 14 (Reuters) – China’s Dongfeng Motor Group Co (0489.HK) said it sees opportunities for mergers and acquisitions in the global auto sector still reeling from the fallout of the global downturn.

“The company will closely monitor opportunities for overseas acquisitions,” Chairman Xu Ping told reporters in a news conference on Wednesday.

He added that appreciation of China’s currency, the yuan, which many believe will take place in the next few months, would further strengthen Dongfeng’s position in making any acquisitions.

Dongfeng, the Chinese joint venture partner of Nissan Motor (7201.T), Honda Motor (7267.T) and PSA Peugeot Citroen (PEUP.PA), had 17.4 billion yuan ($2.55 billion) cash and cash equivalents on hand at the end of 2009, up from 7.2 billion yuan at end-2008.

It will target assets overseas and at home that can lift the core-value of the China state-owned company.

Chinese auto makers are eager to buy technologies and brands from overseas to enhance their competitiveness in the U.S. and European markets. The parent of Geely Automobile (0175.HK) signed a definitive agreement late last month to buy Ford Motor Co’s (F.N) Volvo car unit for $1.8 billion. [ID:nTOE63900O]

RAPID GROWTH IN CHINA

China, which last year overtook the United States as the world’s biggest car market, has been a bright spot for global automakers battered by the industry’s worst downturn in a generation. A massive stimulus package from Beijing included aggressive cuts in sales tax on small cars.

Xu expects China’s automobile industry will keep growing at a relatively rapid pace in 2010. “China’s automobile market is entering a mass consumption era,” he said.

The company estimated China’s vehicle sales will rise about 10 percent to 15 million units this year after breakneck growth of 46 percent in 2009.

Dongfeng aims to sell 1.65 million to 1.7 million vehicles this year, up 15-18 percent from a year ago. The company sold 1.43 million vehicles, up 35 percent with sales of passenger vehicles rising 45.6 percent to about 1.06 million.

That will see its market share rising to about 11 percent from 10 percent in 2009.

The strong sales in 2009 lifted its net profit for the year by 58 percent to 6.25 billion yuan. For company results statement please click here

Its shares fell 3.4 percent to close at HK$12.6 on Wednesday but have risen about 13 percent this year, lagging the broader market, which was largely flat this year. ($1=6.825 Yuan)

Dongfeng Motor says sees M&A opportunities overseas

HONG KONG, April 14 (Reuters) – China’s Dongfeng Motor Group Co (0489.HK) said it sees opportunities for mergers and acquisitions in the global auto sector still reeling from the fallout of the global downturn.

Cyclical Consumer Goods

“The company will closely monitor opportunties for overseas acquisitions,” chairman Xu Ping told reporters in a news conference on Wednesday.

He added that appreciation of China’s currency, the yuan, which many believe will take place in the next few months, would further strengthen Dongfeng’s position in making any acquistions.

Dongfeng is the Chinese joint venture partner of Nissan Motor (7201.T), Honda Motor (7267.T) and PSA Peugoet Citroen (PEUP.PA).

SCENARIOS-China may be closer to changing yuan policy

BEIJING/SHANGHAI, April 9 (Reuters) – The Chinese yuan eased in offshore markets on Friday after a knee-jerk reaction to a New York Times report late on Thursday that fanned talk of an imminent policy shift in Beijing to let the currency rise.

The newspaper reported that Beijing was very close to announcing a small revaluation and would then let the currency fluctuate more widely.

The report, coincided with a lightning visit by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to Beijing to meet Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan.

Geithner’s decision last weekend to delay a ruling on whether China manipulates its currency may have defused political tensions enough for Beijing to let the yuan resume its climb after it has effectively repegged it in mid-2008 to help exporters weather the global financial crisis.

Here is a look what Beijing might do in months ahead.

RESUMPTION OF GRADUAL APPRECIATION

* Probability: Likely.

Many analysts expect Beijing to let the yuan start strengthening as early as in the second quarter and allow it to climb 3-4 percent over the 12 months.

Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan said in March that the decision to keep the yuan stable was a “special policy” to cope with the global downturn and Beijing would have to let the yuan resume its rise at some point. [ID:nTOE62501N]

Offshore yuan forwards are currently pricing in 2.8 percent appreciation against the dollar over the 12 months CNY1YNDFOR=, roughly in line with a Reuters poll last month. [ID:nTOE62O075]

However, how such a measured climb would be engineered is subject to much debate.

A gradual rise, possibly combined with a widening of the yuan’s daily trading band appears most likely.

But a small one-off revaluation, as in July 2005, still cannot be ruled out.

* Market impact: Even though such scenario is largely priced in, offshore non-deliverable forwards may up the appreciation bets. The impact on commodity markets and commodity-linked currencies is harder to predict, as such a move would make imports cheaper but could also be seen as a tightening measure that would temper Chinese growth in the medium term.

DE FACTO PEG MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE YEAR

* Probability: less likely.

China’s reluctance to let yuan rise is in large part a function of deep-seated concerns about the strength of its economic recovery.

The Commerce Ministry has repeatedly said that a stable yuan has benefited both China and the world during the global crisis and the yuan should not be blamed for global imbalances.

China is expected to report its first monthly trade deficit in six years this week, giving Beijing an excuse to ignore calls for a stronger yuan.

But keeping the yuan stable runs the risk of fuelling inflation as the economy recovers, while a lack of action might lead to increased tensions between Beijing and Washington in the run-up to the mid-term U.S. elections in November.

* Market impact: Yuan rises implied by offshore NDFs, particully short-dated forwards, are likely to fall.

NEW EXCHANGE RATE REGIME

* Probability: Less likely but garnering attention

Economists have suggested that China would benefit from a new model for determining the yuan’s exchange rate.

Although the exchange rate is theoretically set against a basket of currencies, it has in practice been overwhelmingly centred on the dollar. Beijing let the yuan gain 21 percent against the dollar between July 2005 and July 2008.

Ting Lu, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has said that Beijing should follow Singapore’s example and target a basket of currencies, keeping its composition secret to leave markets guessing when the central bank might intervene.

Jun Ma, an economist with Deutsche Bank, advocates a “flexible crawling peg against a basket” that would generate uncertainty as in Singapore, but with daily and monthly volatility limits.

Researchers from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think-tank, have suggested a policy of making it clear the yuan will appreciate by 3-5 percent each year, but in an unpredictable pattern to keep speculators at bay.

* Possible market impact: Markets may price in faster yuan rises if China allows greater yuan flexibility, but there will be greater uncertainty about its moves.

BIG ONE-TIME REVALUATION

* Probability: Unlikely

A substantial one-time revaluation would fly in the face of Beijing’s promised policy continuity and might appear to domestic critics as if the government was caving in to foreign pressure.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill said Beijing could let the yuan rise as much as 5 percent, while Societe Generale expects a revaluation of 5 to 10 percent in April or May. [ID:nTOE61M05Z]

A big enough revaluation would, in theory, deter hot money inflows by dampening expectations of further major gains. But if it was deemed insufficient, investors might still pile into Chinese assets on expectations the yuan would rise further.

Conversely, if the adjustment was big enough to deter speculators, it might batter the very exporters that Beijing has tried so hard to support.

* Possible market impact: A major revaluation could initially boost currencies such as the yen and Australian dollar AUD=, which tend to have high correlations with Chinese growth, while hurting commodity and equity markets due to concerns about its impact on exporters and growth.

Shares of companies geared towards Chinese consumer spending, from luxury goods retailers to automakers, might rally on the hope that cheaper imports would boost demand. (Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

Growing number of Australians could shape 2010 election

(Reuters) – Explosive population growth is shaping as a pivotal issue for Australian elections later this year, with most voters not sharing Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s preference for a “Big Australia,” a survey showed on Thursday.

World

Major business groups, fearing labor shortages, urged the government to ignore a survey showing two-thirds of Australians did not want the population of 22 million to swell to an expected 36 million by 2050.

“In the wake of a recovering economy, and what we expect to be some global recovery during 2010-11, the likelihood is we will need to increase our skilled migration intake,” said Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Anderson.

Rudd last year backed a bigger Australia after Treasury Department Secretary Ken Henry said current high rates of immigration and childbirth were creating profound economic policy challenges, with population growth of 61 percent seen by 2050.

In contrast, the world population was forecast to grow by only 38 percent over the same period, from 6.8 billion to 9.4 billion, making Australia the world’s fastest growing industrialized country, ahead of even India.

Policy think-tank the Lowy Institute released a survey on Thursday showing that while 72 percent of respondents supported a rise in Australia’s population, almost the same number (69 percent) wanted it clamped below a modest 30 million ceiling.

“Some of the concerns about overcrowding, about house prices, about the environmental strain that 36 million Australians would cause, are also starting to bite,” Lowy Institute executive director Michael Wesley told national radio.

Australia’s economy skirted the worst of the global downturn thanks to high commodity prices, a rush of foreign investment and soaring real estate costs that convinced the Reserve Bank of Australia to start raising interest rates last October, the first major global central bank to do so.

The RBA lifted its key cash rate by another 25 basis points this week to 4.25 percent, its fifth hike in seven months, and more increases are expected as the economy continues to gather strength and price pressures build along with it.

Strong jobs figures on Thursday showed 19,600 extra positions were added in March, holding the jobless rate at 5.3 percent, far below levels in other advanced countries.

The government will in days release a sweeping review of taxation designed to cope with economic and population shifts, and possibly including a controversial new tax on big miners like BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

The Business Council of Australia, representing the country’s 100 largest companies, said population was inextricable from continued economic growth, with president Graham Bradley promising to fight any plan to cut immigrant numbers.

Strong population growth would be a boon for property firms like Lend Lease, Stockland and Mirvac, building materials group Boral Ltd and CSR and engineering giant Leighton Holdings, while continued migration would also help ease mining labor shortages.

Rudd’s popularity has stabilized following a fall in recent months, though he remains well ahead in the polls and is favored to win a second term.

But the resurgent opposition, divided internally over whether to support cutting immigration, said the Lowy survey pointed to the need for a debate about population and immigration ahead of elections later this year.

“(Voters) are not prepared to sign up to the level of growth that Kevin Rudd is championing,” conservative immigration spokesman Scott Morrison said.

Immigration and surging asylum seeker numbers have split Australians and helped turn recent national elections, with tough border controls and a military blockade of refugee hopefuls in 2001 propelling conservatives to an unexpected electoral victory.

Newly appointed Population Minister Tony Burke said the government had no firm population target, with the 36 million figure being only a projection based on current policies.

“We continue in the budget each year to take account of the employment needs of the nation and to tailor those figures in a considered way,” Burke told reporters.

(Editing by Michael Perry & Kim Coghill)

UPDATE 1-IMF says Poland right to delay euro adoption-paper

WARSAW, March 29 (Reuters) – Poland was right to put off swapping its currency for the euro because the move gave it the flexibility to absorb the effects of the global crisis, the head of the IMF was quoted on Monday as saying.

“The Polish government’s decision to delay the euro adoption is correct right now,” the International Monetary Fund’s Dominique Strauss-Kahn told the Gazeta Wyborcza newspaper ahead of his visit to Poland on Monday.

“Poland should still set the adoption of the euro as its goal,” he said.

Poland’s centre-right government ditched plans to swap the zloty for the common currency in 2012 and no longer has a specific goal, although several officials have said the move would be possible in 2015.

A deputy finance minister said last month Poland will most likely reapply to the IMF to extend its $20.6 billion Flexible Credit Line (FCL), which it received a year ago in the midst of the financial crisis.

Poland managed to escape the global downturn mostly unscathed, emerging as the European Union’s lone member to dodge a recession. But the zloty fell as much as 30 percent in 2009 to the euro before regaining about 10 percent. (Reporting by Chris Borowski)

Toshiba eyes Gates nuclear alliance, chip plant

Toshiba Corp is in talks with a company backed by Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates to jointly develop advanced nuclear reactors, the Japanese electronics maker said, helping send its shares higher.

Toshiba, the world’s No.3 microchip maker behind Intel Corp and Samsung Electronics Co, also said it would restart plans to build a factory to make NAND-type flash memory chips to meet recovering sales.

These developments in the firm’s two main earnings pillars — nuclear and chip operations — come at a time when electronics makers worldwide are trying to put the global downturn behind them and seek fresh growth, especially in emerging markets.

Toshiba, which owns U.S. nuclear firm Westinghouse, said it was in preliminary talks with the Gates-backed firm TerraPower to develop so-called travelling-wave reactors (TWRs), which are designed to use depleted uranium as fuel and thought to hold the promise of running up to 100 years without refuelling.

That compares with conventional light-water reactors, which require refuelling once every several years.

Small-sized reactors like the TWR would make a good fit for emerging markets, said Deutsche Securities analyst Takeo Miyamoto.

“If you put a regular reactor like the one used in Japan in some emerging nations, that could sometimes create overcapacity and make it difficult to back that reactor up when you take the unit off line for maintenance,” Miyamoto said.

“There would be demand for this type of reactor in newly developing countries,” he said.

Toshiba is led by Norio Sasaki, who took the reins at the company last June after rising through the ranks in its power generation division, where he spearheaded the firm’s acquisition of Westinghouse in 2006.

MINI REACTORS

The Nikkei daily, which first reported the news earlier on Tuesday, said Gates could invest several hundred billion yen (several billion dollars) of his own money in the project, with commercialisation likely to take more than 10 years.

Toshiba spokesman Keisuke Ohmori said the talks with TerraPower are at an early stage and nothing has been decided.

Shares of Toshiba rose as much as 4.9 percent on Tuesday before closing up 3.6 percent at 466 yen, outperforming the benchmark Nikkei average, which fell 0.5 percent.

Toshiba, which is developing its own mini nuclear reactors designed to operate continuously for 30 years, anticipates that about 80 percent of the technologies used in the reactor under development can be applied to TWRs, the Nikkei said.

One hurdle for commercialisation of TWRs is the development of materials that can withstand nuclear reactions for such long periods of time, the paper said.

Separately, Toshiba said it had decided to start construction of its fifth NAND flash memory plant in Mie, central Japan, in July in reaction to a recovery in demand, driven in part by the growing popularity of smartphones.

Production is slated for early 2011.

Toshiba said it has not yet decided on the scale of the investment or output capacity. The Nikkei reported last month that the company would spend about 800 billion yen ($8.9 billion) on the plant.

Toshiba had originally planned to start building the factory in the spring of 2009 and for it to be completed this year, but it put the project on hold due to the industrywide slump.

Rival Samsung and SanDisk Corp, Toshiba’s partner in the NAND business, have also recently become more upbeat on the chip market.

“The flash memory industry is in an extremely tight spot right now, and makers simply cannot catch up with demand, as Apple gobbles up the bulk of the supply,” said Kazutaka Oshima, president of Rakuten Investment Management.

“The supply shortfall is such that some makers even have to buy semiconductors from other makers from the spot market to satisfy their supply obligations.”

NAND flash memory chips, which can retain data even after electricity has been turned off, is used to store music, pictures and video clips in a wide range of electronics including digital cameras and mobile phones.

(Reporting by Kiyoshi Takenaka, Nobuhiro Kubo and Taiga Uranaka in Tokyo, Supantha Mukherjee in Bangalore; Editing by Edwina Gibbs and Nathan Layne)

Bombardier – Bombardier Streetcar Deal – Bombardier bags world’s biggest streetcar deal

Toronto, July 1 (IANS) Canada’s Bombardier, which is the third largest civilian aircraft maker and global leader in rail transportation, Tuesday announced the world’s biggest sale of rail streetcars.

The Montreal-based Bombardier, which supplies coaches to Delhi Metro, said it has signed a contract worth $851 million to supply 204 state-of-the-art streetcars to the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC).

Toronto, Canada’s biggest city, is world famous for its Kolkata-type trams or streetcars.

Under the deal, the low-floor streetcars will be supplied between 2012 and 2018, the first prototype set for launch in 2011.

In a statement, the Canadian giant said: “The contract represents the largest single order ever for light rail vehicles worldwide and solidifies Bombardier’s position as the world’s leading provider of light rail technology.”

“Bombardier now has more than 2,700 trams and light rail vehicles operating or on order in cities across Europe, Australia and North America,” it said.

Grego Peters, president of light rail vehicles at Bombardier Transportation, said: “We are proud to receive this impressive order and delighted to adapt our proven Bombardier flexity streetcar technology – which is today operating successfully in cities across Europe – for one of North America’s premier urban centres.”

Each streetcar will have the capacity to carry more than 240 passengers and come with increased heating and air conditioning, improved customer comfort and enhanced features.

The multi-million order comes at a time when Bombardier has been hit hard by the cancellation of orders for civilian aircraft and business jets by companies amid the global downturn.

Bombardier employs about 65,000 people worldwide.

Anand Sharma keen to stabilise industrial production

New Delhi, May 29 (ANI): Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma today said that the Government would take every possible step to stabilise industrial production.

Talking to reporters here, Sharma said, “In the present climate, when economies across the world have been adversely affected and there is continuous fall in demand, we would like to ensure that every possible step is taken to ensure that industrial output remains stable.”

Sharma is taking charge of the trade ministry at a time when India’s exports have suffered a severe setback due to the global downturn.

The economy is also growing at a much slower pace.

For 2008-09, the GDP growth dropped to 6.7 per cent against nine per cent in the previous fiscal. (ANI)

Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran must work on a joint strategy: Zardari

Tehran, May 24 (ANI): Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari has said his country, Afghanistan and Iran need to evolve a joint strategy to solve their border-related probelems.

Addressing a trilateral conference, Zardari said the global downturn has impacted Pakistan and Afghanistan most. He said that the present generation was handicapped due to lack of better education and employment opportunities and we would have to do enough for saving our coming generations.

He said that peace and stability was the imperative for progress in the region. He said that Iran and Afghanistan was also facing situation similar to us.

Zardari urged the three countries to work in harmony for the betterment of the region and invited both Afghan President, Hamid Karzai and Iran President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to visit Pakistan,

Ahmadinejad said that Iran considers Afghanistan and Pakistan its second home and added the region was inflicted with the terrorism, militancy, extremism and foreign intervention. He said all three countries were the inheritors of a common civilization and facing a common enemy, for which, we have to work jointly.

Karzai said that his country was in a state of war for the last thirty years and stressed on peace for the stability of the region.

It was also decided that the next trilateral conference would be held in Islamabad. (ANI)

South Korea, European Union to expand ties

Seoul – South Korea and the European Union Saturday called for an early conclusion of negotations on a free trade agreement and updating a framework treaty on trade and cooperation.

“The leaders agreed the future-oriented partnership between the sides will not only help improve the bilateral relationship between Korea and EU, but will also contribute to the development and peace of their regions and the international community,” they said in a joint statement released at the end of the fourth EU-South Korea summit.

South Korea’s President Lee Myung Bak, EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and Czech President Vaclav Klaus, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, vowed cooperation in the fight against climate change and the global downturn.

Barroso and Klaus arrived in Seoul Friday after concluding an EU-Russia summit held in Khabarovsk in Russia’s Far East. Also participating from the EU side are Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU commissioner for external relations and neighbourhood policy and Trade Commissioner Catherine Ashton.

South Korea was a “like-minded country,” Barroso said, adding that the EU wanted to conclude an “alliance of values” with the South-East Asian nation.

The EU is South Korea’s second-largest trade partner after China and the biggest investor in the country. (dpa)