IMF and EU suspend talks with Hungary

(Reuters) – The IMF and EU suspended on Saturday a review of Hungary’s funding program, set up in 2008 to save the country from financial meltdown, saying it must take tough action to meet targets for cutting its budget deficit.

Suspension of talks means Hungary will not have access to remaining funds in its $25.1 billion loan package, created by the International Monetary Fund and European Union and which it now uses as financial safety net, until the review is concluded.

Negotiations with the lenders had been expected to finish early next week. Analysts said the forint currency could fall sharply when financial markets reopen Monday due to uncertainty over the international safety net for Hungary, which has financed itself from the markets since last year.

“In an environment of heightened market scrutiny of government deficits and debt levels, the fiscal deficit targets previously announced — 3.8 percent of GDP in 2010 and below 3 percent of GDP in 2011 — remain an appropriate anchor for the necessary consolidation process and debt sustainability, and should be adhered to, but additional measures will need to be taken to achieve these objectives,” the IMF said.

“Sustainable consolidation will require durable, non-distortive measures, which the authorities need more time to develop,” it said in a statement.

HITTING WHERE IT HURTS MOST

Hungary’s new center-right government, which swept to power in April elections, has said it wanted to extend its current financing deal with lenders until the end of 2010 and seek a precautionary deal for 2011 and 2012.

Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy made clear the government was keen to resume negotiations. “The government will of course continue talks with international organizations including the IMF and the EU,” he said in a statement published by the national news agency MTI Saturday.

Christoph Rosenberg, who led the IMF delegation to Hungary, signaled that the Fund wanted more on next year’s budget. “By definition when we come next time — unless we come next week — the government will have made more progress on the 2011 budget and that will be a very important budget,” he told Reuters.

In an interview, he also said the IMF had not discussed the possibility of a new financing deal for 2011 and 2012.

“We are aware of what has been said in public but in our meetings we didn’t really get to that point, because we obviously needed to first resolve the policy issues and those have not been resolved,” he said.

The EU issued a separate statement saying the conclusion of the review had to be postponed and further talks should be held at a later stage.

“Hungary has returned to a positive economic growth path and now has one of the lowest budget deficits in the EU. I welcome the authorities’ commitment to the 2010 deficit target,” said Olli Rehn, Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs.

“However, the correction of the excessive deficit by next year will require tough decisions, notably on spending.”

Hungary needs the IMF/EU safety net to keep the trust of investors from whom it borrows. But the country remains vulnerable due to its high public debt, which is equal to 80 percent of GDP, and its strong reliance on foreign financing.

“If we do not have the safety net of international lenders, that hits us where it hurts most,” said MKB Bank analyst Zsolt Kondrat.

“One would definitely expect a weakening forint Monday. A 10-forint weakening (versus the euro) is quite plausible, and nobody knows how nervous the market’s reaction might be.”

The forint traded at around 282 to the euro Friday.

Neighboring Romania had to take tough steps last month to secure the release of its IMF aid and reassure investors.

(Reporting by Krisztina Than/Marton Dunai; editing by David Stamp)

UPDATE 1-IMF chief sees risks from surge in capital flows

DAEJEON, South Korea, July 12 (Reuters) – Asia has emerged as a global economic powerhouse but is faced with policy challenges from rising capital inflows and needs to watch out for possible shocks from Europe, the IMF’s chief said on Monday.

Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn admitted to mistakes the International Monetary Fund made in helping several Asian countries overcome the 1997-1998 financial crisis but said its efforts eventually paid off by making the region more sound.

Strauss-Kahn also said during a conference, co-hosted by the IMF and the South Korean government, that it was working on ways to enhance or redesign its existing lending facilities and that details would be available by November.

“We may have made mistakes. Who doesn’t?,” he said during the conference in the central South Korean city of Daejeon. “We have learned how big the danger of volatile capital flows is and how big those capital flows may be.”

At the same conference, South Korean Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun urged the IMF to take steps to help prevent another financial crisis, repeating the country’s call for a strengthened network of financial safety nets.

“I belive the IMF has an important contribution to make, by proposing and enacting concrete and realistic measures to strengthen financial safety nets around the globe,” Yoon said.

Yoon said efforts from developing countries were not sufficient to withstand external shocks on increases in volume and high volatility of capital flows.

Strauss-Kahn also acknowledged the argument that the IMF’s prescriptions offered in return for rescuing Asia’s emerging economies of South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia during the 1990s crisis could have been better structured.

“We have learned also that we need to focus conditionality on the real problems, not having a long list of conditions that may have little to do with the problems at stake,” he said at the conference on Asia’s growing role in the global economy.

He warned of remaining downward risks mainly involving the fiscal crisis in Europe.

“Obviously Europe is today with low growth and some risks of crisis on the fiscal side, which means that policymakers need to remain attuned to negative shocks including capital inflows,” he said.

He repeated his previous view that the U.S. dollar will remain the world’s major reserve currency for a long time, saying it will take a long time before alternatives such as the IMF’s special drawing rights (SDRs) emerge as a reserve money. (Additional reporting by Cheon Jong-woo; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

India, S. Korea place development as top item on G-20 agenda

Busan (S.Korea), June 4 (ANI): India and South Korea, on Friday said they will put ”development” on top of the G-20 agenda.

The commitment was made after Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee held discussions with Il Sakong, the chairman of Presidential Committee for the G-20 Finance Ministers Summit.

The two days of talks will bring together twenty of the world”s most developed and emerging economies to Busan.

After the talks, Mukherjee said:“I had a very fruitful discussion with the Chairperson of the Presidential Councils for the summit. There are many areas of common interests and convergence of the views about how the summit will be made more effective and development will play an important core agenda of the functioning of the G-20. Ourselves and Korea have the convergence of views.”

Il Sakong also reiterated India’s stand on core agenda of development and said that the meeting was very fruitful and “we agreed on almost everything as we have been very closely cooperating with India in the preparation of G-20 Summit.”

He added:“ There are a number of agenda items which related to previous agreements made by G20 leaders. But in addition, India and Korea are very much interested in `Development’ being up on the agenda and also the strengthening of financial safety net particularly for developing and emerging economies.”

Commenting on the European crisis and the likelihood of it dominating summit deliberations, the South Korean Leader said: “I don’t think it will dominate the summit, but certainly it will be substantially part of the discussion.”

Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will be working on a host of options for their political leaders to be endorsed at a summit in Toronto at the end of this month with a view to making more specific commitments at a follow-up summit in Seoul in November this year during the two-days meeting here.

The meeting in Busan will also try to thrash out an agreement ahead of the Toronto summit on how to tackle banks. Policy makers want to make it easy and quick to wind up an ailing bank so that it does not destabilise the financial system, as investment bank Lehman Brothers did when it crashed in 2008. (ANI)

FOREX-Euro jumps on Greek package in short squeeze

TOKYO, April 12 (Reuters) – The euro leapt to its highest in nearly a month on Monday, surging 1 percent on the dollar and yen as investors who had sold it scrambled to buy it back after euro zone finance ministers agreed a rescue package for Greece.

The euro’s rise weighed broadly on the dollar, helping the pound climb to its highest in seven weeks, while the dollar index plunged through its 30- and 55-day daily moving averages.

Euro zone finance ministers approved a 30 billion euro ($40.5 billion) aid package of loans for Greece if needed, with at least 10 billion euros also expected from the International Monetary Fund, a move likely to calm markets in the short term. [ID:nLDE63A0BO]

The massive financial safety net for Greece boosted investor appetite for riskier assets, helping the Australian dollar to its highest in five months and the New Zealand dollar to its strongest since late January earlier in the day.

The euro extended gains as far as $1.3692 EUR= on trading platform EBS, up from $1.3488 in New York on Friday. It moved above its Asian morning high of $1.3678 after making a brief pullback to test support at its 55-day moving average at $1.3630.

The euro, which hit a 10-month low at $1.3267 in March, is now seen as having potential to test a mid-March high near $1.3820 this week.

The agreement on a package for Greece was likely to help the country raise funds more easily but the problem was unlikely to disappear, said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac, Sydney.

“The way the market is short euro, this could give a leg up to around the next technical resistance at $1.3820. But can it sustain a move higher than that? I am not sure. We may see some selling emerge around there.”

Greece will test market appetite for its debt with an auction of 1.2 billion euro Treasury bills on Tuesday after investors recently dumped Greek assets on mounting worries about the country’s debt crisis. [ID:nLDE6380B3]

Traders and analysts said the auction results will be important for the euro as well as other risky assets.

Scepticism about how Greece would resolve its debt problems has seen short positions stack up against the euro this year.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows currency speculators were still heavily short the euro in the week ended April 6, although they reduced their net short position to 67,223 contracts from a record 85,326 contracts the week before. [IMM/FRX]

Andrew Robinson, FX market strategist at Saxo Bank in Singapore, said the euro may get squeezed higher again in European trade.

“Consolidation might take us just below $1.3600 but I see more upside for the rest of the week,” he said.

The single currency rose 1.2 percent to 127.32 yen EURJPY=R above its 100-day moving average at 127.14 yen, although it was still below a peak seen early in the month at 127.95.

KNOCK-ON

Its gain underpinned broad risk appetite and pushed up commodity-linked currencies such as the Aussie and the kiwi.

The Aussie AUD=D4 rose to its highest since mid-November at $0.9389, before coming back to $0.9330, flat on the day, with its November peak of $0.9407 now in the market’s sights.

The kiwi rose to $0.7195 NZD=D4, its highest level since late January, before relinquishing some ground to $0.7160.

The dollar index .DXY fell more than 1 percent to 80.22, breaking down through an upward trendline in place since early December and plunging through its 55-day daily moving average at 80.42.

Sterling earlier lost ground against the euro, but it later rose against the dollar as high as $1.5486 GBP=D4, its highest since Feb. 23.

The CFTC data shows currency speculators trimmed their long bets on the U.S. dollar in the week to April 6.

Against the yen, the dollar was unchanged at 93.14 yen JPY=, off a seven-month high near 95 yen set early this month.

Asian currencies, including the yen, are seen as likely to gain from any move by China to revalue its currency.

Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Washington this week for a nuclear security summit and is expected to hold a one-on-one meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday.

The currency market is watching closely for signs of how soon China might relax its grip on the yuan. The country recorded its first monthly trade deficit in six years in March, although economists doubt that will stand in the way of a resumption in the yuan’s rise before long. [ID:nSGE63B00M] (Additional reporting by Anirban Nag in Sydney and Kaori Kaneko in Tokyo; Editing by Joseph Radford)

Greek aid package to boost market confidence

(Reuters) – Markets around the world are set to rally on Monday in response to European governments’ agreement on a massive financial safety net for Greece, though the country will still struggle to resolve its debt crisis.

After two previous announcements this year failed to calm the markets, euro zone finance ministers on Sunday overcame deep political divisions and revealed a plan that appears generous and detailed enough to ease fears of a Greek debt default.

The ministers approved a mechanism for their countries to extend up to 30 billion euros ($40 billion) of emergency loans to Greece. Athens has not decided whether to apply for the aid, but many analysts think it will have to do so.

Together with at least 10 billion euros expected from the International Monetary Fund in the first year, Greece may receive the biggest multilateral financial rescue ever.

“I think it will be a big boost to all markets, not only Europe but in Asia and here in the U.S. as well,” said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates, an investment advisory firm in Toledo, Ohio.

“It was one of the clouds that prevented the U.S. (stock market) from breaking through to new highs, so lifting this barrier will be a big positive. We have a lot of money on the sidelines globally and this could be a big catalyst to bring some of that money in.”

The existence of the safety net for Greece will help remove concern about a potential “domino effect” on other countries with fiscal problems, Lancz added. Debt prices of some weaker euro zone states such as Portugal have come under pressure.

The size of the package is on the high side of market expectations, and could prompt a violent rebound in Greek bond prices and bank shares this week because some financial institutions had been selling them short.

BOND YIELDS

The yield on Greece’s 10-year government bonds could plunge to near 6.5 or even 6.0 percent this week from 7.25 percent on Friday, analysts said.

Some predicted the euro, which has been hurt for months by concern that an eventual Greek default could force the country out of the single currency zone, might rebound to near $1.40 in coming weeks from $1.35.

Mark Waggoner, president of U.S. firm Excel Futures in Bend, Oregon, said the aid plan would help increase liquidity in Greek debt by making traders feel safer, and might make U.S. investors more willing to buy Greek bonds. He predicted global commodity prices would benefit.

Including the money expected from the IMF, the size of the aid package would be large enough to cover the remaining borrowing needs that Greece has declared for this year.

In fact, if the announcement of the package pushes Greek yields down sharply, Athens may be able to squeeze through a tricky period of debt refinancing over the next six weeks without actually accessing the package; it must raise about 11 billion euros by May.

A test of this will come on Tuesday, when Athens plans to sell 1.2 billion euros of Treasury bills.

LONG TERM

In the long term, however, markets are likely to remain worried about Greece’s ability to tackle its 300 billion euro debt mountain, which exceeds its annual economic output by a quarter — especially given the country’s deep recession.

This may make accessing the aid package inevitable, and leave Greek assets vulnerable to fresh speculative attacks if Athens seems to be failing to meet budget deficit-cutting targets agreed with the European Union.

“Having the program on the table may be enough to shore up confidence, but without the amount of cash needed, it’s just a matter of time before they have to ask to use it,” said Koon Chow, a strategist at Barclays Capital.

European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said the three-year euro zone loans would carry an interest rate of about 5 percent.

While that is well below the current rate of about 7 percent that Greece would have to pay to borrow three-year money from the market, it is still several percentage points above the rates that healthy euro zone countries have to pay, and the additional interest cost is a major burden for Athens.

Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit Group, said Greece seemed likely to meet the EU’s fiscal targets for 2010 — but it would end this year in a deeper recession, with a still-high budget deficit close to 9 percent of gross domestic product, and having done little to restore its competitiveness.

“The challenge of combining robust economic growth with draconian fiscal adjustment, both essential to reach debt sustainability, remains a formidable one,” he wrote.

Another factor that may continue to worry euro zone markets, and prevent any extended rally by the euro, is structural weaknesses in the zone that have been exposed by the Greek crisis: sharp divergences in countries’ economic performances, and the difficulty that governments had in agreeing on a strategy to handle the crisis.

EU finance ministers will discuss ways to reduce divergences and improve coordination of economic policies at a meeting in Madrid late this week, but given their political differences and the complexity of any reforms to the zone’s rules, they may not make much progress.

(Additional reporting by Jan Strupczewski and Christopher Sanders; Editing by Andrew Torchia)

PIMCO sees Greece action ineffective; UK downgrade

(Reuters) – PIMCO sees Europe’s action on Greece as ineffective in fixing the country’s problems, while Britain’s sovereign debt rating could be downgraded within a year, a top executive of the world’s largest bond fund said.

Scott Mather, head of global portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co (PIMCO), told a briefing in Taipei on Thursday that the company was underweighting UK, U.S. and pan-European 10-year sovereign bonds.

“Miracles are needed in the next six months in order to keep economic growth in the developed world,” Mather said.

PIMCO has been warning investors to stay away from developed countries like Britain with heavy debt burdens, recommending instead shifting assets to Asia and developing countries.

Confidence in Greece as a borrower has been badly shaken by a 300 billion euro ($405 billion) debt pile that exceeds the country’s 240 billion euro annual economic output. It has about 23 billion euros worth of bonds — equivalent to almost 10 percent of its gross domestic product — maturing between now and the end of May.

Eurozone leaders last week agreed to a joint financial safety net with the IMF to ease Greece’s debt crisis and restore confidence in the euro, which has lost 5.5 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar this year.

Mather said, however, that European governments had not said how much money they were going to put into Greece.

Last month, PIMCO said it was maintaining its negative stance on British gilts because the amount of debt the country would have to issue in the future should lead to inflation and a depreciating currency.

Britain’s record-high debt has caused disquiet among investors, and Standard & Poor’s has put the country’s top-notch triple-A rating on a negative watch.