Australia PM puts economy at heart of re-election

July 16, 2010 By Leave a Comment

July 15 (Reuters) – Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard sought to sell her Labor government’s economic credentials on Thursday, warning that the conservative opposition’s policies could risk a robust economy.

In her first major economic speech since becoming prime minister on June 24, Gillard set out her platform for re-election at polls expected within months, centering on job creation.

“I believe a strong economy is the foundation of everything else that as prime minister I want for this great country of ours,” Gillard told the National Press Club in Canberra.

“As prime minister I will make my economic judgments based on what gives Australians the best opportunity for access to work.”

The government, on course for a narrow election victory according to opinion polls, tweaked its economic forecasts on Wednesday, predicting robust commodity prices due to Chinese demand will ensure the budget returns to surplus in 2012/13, far ahead of most other rich nations.

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For Reuters Poll Tend [ID:nSYU010167]

For updated economic forecasts [ID:nSGE66D04I

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It also forecast unemployment would fall to 5 percent in 2010-11 and 4.75 pct in 2011-12.

Gillard said the economy had emerged from the global financial crisis stronger than many other developed nations due in part due to the government’s A$52 billion ($46 billion) stimulus package in 2009.

“I say to the Australian people, now is not the time to take risks with the Australian economy,” said Gillard, Australia’s first female prime minister who appears far more at ease dealing with the media than her predecessor Kevin Rudd.

“It is a time for prudent and careful economic management, not a time to take risks with a Liberal Party that got it wrong on the global financial crisis, that opposed (stimulus) action to support Australian jobs and that would have allowed hundreds of thousands of jobs to be destroyed.”

Gillard said a new mining tax, which is forecast to raise A$10.5 billion in revenue from 2012, would fund a cut in corporate tax and a rise in pensions but would be dumped by conservative leader Tony Abbott if he was elected.

“Remarkably, my opponent would deny Australians these benefits because he is refusing to accept the tax that our biggest mining companies have agreed to pay,” she said.

PM SELLS ECONOMIC CONSERVATISM

Economic management is traditionally a major issue in Australian elections. And while Australia’s healthy economy, in its 17th year of growth, should be a winning ticket for the government, voters still believe the opposition has the edge in economic management, according to opinion polls this week.

The opposition, which ruled for 12 years before Labor was elected in 2007, is also committed to achieving a budget surplus, and has said it would put downward pressure on interest rates, cut debt and cap spending.

But it differs from the government over its opposition to a new mining tax and a planned carbon price to fight climate change.

Despite her left-wing background, Gillard has sold herself as an economic conservative, dismissing concerns her government would be an old-style, big-spending Labor administration.

Gillard said growth in spending would be capped at 2 percent a year once the economy was growing above trend.

She also said Australia could not rely solely on its resource sector for future economic prosperity, warning doing so could create a two-speed economy of haves and have nots.

“Australia today is a great beneficiary of the economic growth in China and the demand for our mineral resources in our region. But if anyone thinks that gives us a free ticket to easy prosperity, they are mistaken,” she said.

She said a re-elected Labor government would push for micro-economic reforms to ensure Australia remained a competitive and modern economy, but also provided social dividends.

“The microeconomic challenges of the future are not a simplistic choice between the market and the state,” said Gillard.

“Simply applying the extreme free-market medicine of liberalisation and privatisation without thought or care is not a solution. Maintaining an instinctive hostility towards the public sector and all it provides is equally wrong.” ($1 = 1.131 Australian Dollar) (Editing by Ed Davies and Sugita Katyal)

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Scenarios: What will happen after Belgium’s election?

June 14, 2010 By Leave a Comment

(Reuters) – The Flemish separatist N-VA party was on course to emerge as the biggest single party in the lower house of Belgium’s parliament after an election on Sunday.

World

The following is a look at what is likely to happen now.

SEARCH FOR A COALITION

Belgian governments typically comprise a group of parties representing a majority in Dutch-speaking Flanders and a separate group of parties from the French-speaking part of the country. The last ruling coalition was made up of five parties.

Forming a government can take some time — the present caretaker prime minister, Yves Leterme, took nine months to cobble together an administration after the 2007 vote.

About 60 percent of Belgium’s 10.6 million people speak Dutch, the rest French. A small number also speak German.

Within a few days of the election, King Albert typically appoints an “informateur.” The person, normally an elder statesman not expected to feature in the next government, holds talks with the parties and advises the king on which coalition is likely to be most stable and who should lead it.

The king then appoints a “formateur” to form and potentially lead a government.

N-VA IN GOVERNMENT, WITH FRENCH-SPEAKING PM

N-VA (Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie or New Flemish Alliance) has pledged to deliver more powers to richer Dutch-speaking Flanders and would ideally create a confederation, with Belgium retaining control over relatively few matters, such as foreign policy and the military.

All French-speaking party leaders have expressed a willingness to reform the state, but argued that the De Wever’s “confederal” system goes too far and is simply a step toward the dissolution of Belgium.

An important question is whether De Wever will toe the hard line of his campaign or show a willingness to compromise after his election victory.

De Wever has said he has no great desire to become prime minister as Flemish leaders who became premier have usually toned down their pro-Flemish rhetoric. He has suggested instead allowing a French speaker to become prime minister, for the first time since 1974, in return for a devolution deal [ID:nLDE64T02K].

The most likely candidate is francophone Socialist leader Elio Di Rupo because the socialists as a whole have the most seats.

Other Flemish parties also seek powers for their region, but most stop short of advocating the end of Belgium. Some analysts say there could be two rounds of coalition formation: one within the linguistic regions and one for a federal coalition.

MONTHS OF WRANGLING? Acting Prime Minister Yves Leterme took a record nine months to form a government in 2007. The delay increased the risk premium investors demanded for holding Belgian debt.

Economists say Belgium cannot afford another round of tortuous talks, with its debt-to-GDP ratio set to rise above 100 percent this year or next.

Analysts believe economic pressures and the fact that Belgium takes on the six-month presidency of the European Union at the start of July could focus minds.

De Wever has said there is no point in having talks that go on for six or seven months.

GOVERNMENT WITHOUT N-VA

Should the N-VA abandon efforts to form a government, other parties could rally round to create a coalition.

This might prevent financial speculators, looking for a next victim in the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis, from targeting Belgium.

However, Flemish parties realize that voters have called for a reform of the state and might consider it political suicide to disobey the demands of voters for change.

NEW ELECTIONS

If French- and Dutch-speaking leaders cannot agree and talks drag on for months, a new elections may become inevitable, although it is not clear that the electorate would vote in any new way.

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FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Colombia

June 1, 2010 By Leave a Comment

May 31 (Reuters) – The likely election victory of former defense minister Juan Manuel Santos as president, rebel and drug violence, the push for investment grade rating, and tensions with Venezuela are all points to watch in Colombia this year.

JUNE ELECTION RUN-OFF

Juan Manuel Santos looks set to win a June 20 run-off election and succeed his former boss Alvaro Uribe as president. He won the most votes in a May 30 first round, easily beating former mayor Antanas Mockus after polls had shown them in a tie. While he fell just short of an outright win, Santos is clearly favored to win the June run-off [ID:nN31230268]. Investors see that as a signal Uribe’s security and pro-business policies will continue, and Santos also has a strong position in Congress to push through reforms. Colombia’s peso COP=RR and TES bonds TFIT15240720 rose marginally after the result. Santos won in all but one of Colombia’s states and garnered more than double the votes of Mockus. He will likely count on the support of former Uribe allies in the Cambio Radical and Conservative parties to further bolster his backing. Mockus may flirt with the leftist Democratic Pole party, but risks alienating moderate voters. But Santos must also try to distance himself from the scandals over rights abuses and corruption that blemished Uribe’s government. A probe into whether state agents illegally wiretapped Uribe’s opponents, reporters and judges has crept closer to the presidency without involving Uribe. Support for Mockus surged before the vote, thanks to his call for clean government and ethics. For full election coverage, click on [ID:nCOLOMBIA].

What to watch:

– Alliance-building before June run-off.

– Scandals in the Uribe administration hurting Santos.

ARMED GROUPS, DRUG TRAFFICKERS

Uribe gained the upper hand in Colombia’s long conflict with successes against the left-wing Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia or FARC rebels. But peace talks are unlikely. Under intense pressure from Uribe’s security policies, the FARC has settled into hit-and-run tactics. Both Santos and Mockus are promising a tough line but Santos, as former defense minister, appears better equipped to ensure continuity, adapt policy where needed and also manage relations with Washington as the White House steadily reduces military aid. Authorities can still score with major rebel desertions or by capturing or killing top leaders while the FARC could seek to gain more credibility by releasing some hostages or show its force by pulling off operations such as its kidnapping of a governor in December [ID:nN2272297] and an attack that killed nine marines before the election [ID:nN24194130]. Colombia remains the world’s No. 1 cocaine producer and illegal armed groups are all engaged in drug trafficking, making the government’s task more complex as rebels form alliances with drug-trafficking gangs. Despite a demobilization of paramilitaries who once fought the FARC, new groups have emerged and rights groups say they are an increasing threat. U.S. Democrats who have final say over approving U.S. aid and a free trade deal for Colombia will watch the new government for signs of improved control of rights abuses and drug corruption among troops and lawmakers, as well as more protection for union leaders and rights workers and probes into their murders.

What to watch:

– Major blows to the FARC’s leadership.

– Urban rebel attacks to show resurgence.

VENEZUELA TENSIONS

Tensions between Uribe and Venezuela’s socialist President Hugo Chavez have been at their worst as the two clash over a plan to allow U.S. troops more access to Colombia’s military bases to help combat drug trafficking. Chavez says the plan is a U.S. threat to his OPEC nation. Trade ties always served as a buffer zone between Chavez and Uribe, but Venezuela has curbed commerce and that is hurting Colombia’s economic recovery, knocking around 1 percentage point off its GDP growth. Some analysts say they cannot rule out a limited border incident — even by accident. Santos says he could work with Chavez, but a Santos presidency would likely keep tensions high as Chavez calls the candidate a threat and Santos says he would stop Chavez spreading his socialist revolution to Colombia. Chavez has said he hoped for dialogue with the new Colombian leader. But he will likely still lash out at the base plan and use it to attack U.S. influence. [ID:nN28225132]

What to watch:

– Increased nationalist saber-rattling.

– A Colombian deal to sell electricity to energy-strapped Venezuela that is improving ties.

NEW, OIL MINING INVESTMENTS

Thanks to its political stability, better security and pro-business environment, Colombia is now Latin America’s No. 4 oil producer, a major coal exporter and a growing player in gold investment. Canadian companies like Pacific Rubiales (PRE.TO) and other foreign operators are making headway in exploring Colombia’s once-abandoned oil fields. Risks from guerrilla attacks on oil operations remain and the country needs more infrastructure [ID:nN23202379]. But it hopes production will reach more than 1 million barrels per day next year and an oil block auction in June will measure interest. Mining is also growing, with particular interest in gold. Some companies have faced resistance in receiving environmental permits, including AngloGold Ashanti (ANGJ.J). But Canada’s Greystar Resources (GSL.TO) recently won an appeal over an environmental permit.

What to watch:

– Results of June auction of 200 oil and gas blocks.

– Environmental authorities rulings on mining.

INVESTMENT GRADE

Santos, a former finance minister who once helped bring Colombia out of a fiscal crisis, says creating jobs and generating economic growth are key parts of his platform. He will increase the taxpayer base to bolster state revenue to help fight the budget deficit — one of the key reasons Colombia does not have investment grade rating. Mockus too is known for his fiscal discipline when he was mayor, and is asking for higher taxes. Last year, Canada-based credit rating agency DBRS raised Colombia to investment grade, citing debt management, macroeconomic policy and public security gains. That pushed up the peso and local stocks. But larger rating agencies have so far balked at giving Colombia the prized rating. Colombia says the country needs a fiscal overhaul, based on Norway’s model, before it can reach the grade. The government now says it will leave the sale of the state’s share in energy supplier Isagen to the next president, leaving a question mark over budget financing and opening the way for more foreign debt issuance. The announcement of the delay in the sale hit TES debt and the peso. [ID:nN18146934]

What to watch:

– More debt sales, local or international.

– How the next government handles Isagen. (Editing by Eric Walsh)

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Hungary’s Orban stages big comeback, faces tough job

April 12, 2010 By Leave a Comment

(Reuters) – Viktor Orban is on the cusp of the most sweeping election victory any Hungarian politician has achieved since the country’s transition to democracy — and the toughest challenge of his career as a politician.

World

Orban’s center-right Fidesz party, which was in power under Orban’s leadership as prime minister between 1998-2002, has a good chance of gaining two-thirds of seats in Hungary’s next parliament based on results of the first round of elections on Sunday in which Fidesz won 206 seats of the total 386.

This could give Fidesz a strong enough mandate to rewrite basic laws and launch deep state reforms that are essential for putting Hungary back on track to sustainable and fast economic growth after a deep recession last year.

The charismatic and resilient leader of the conservative right, Orban, still only 46, has made a remarkable comeback after two lost elections in 2002 and 2006.

After eight years Fidesz has ousted the Socialist Party, which Orban denounces as unpatriotic, corrupt and dishonest communists who nearly destroyed the country.

“Today Hungarians again raised their head and condemned a whole era … In 2010, they drew a line under an era which has failed and chose unity, order and safety,” Orban told cheering supporters on Sunday night after declaring victory.

Orban ran a cautious campaign that steered clear of details on how he would cut taxes and “create 1 million jobs in 10 years” as he sought to leverage his party’s high popularity ratings ahead of the vote.

He has been extremely careful on taking a stand on anything that may damage him or his party, but he will need to quickly lay out a consistent and credible strategy after the second round of elections on April 25.

“He will face by far the biggest task of his career,” political scientist Peter Tolgyessy told weekly Magyar Narancs prior to the vote.

“After the election he will have to decide within a couple of weeks about the strategy of his government, in a way which will determine his four-year term,” he added.

LONG TERM STRATEGIST

Orban will have to live up to voters’ hopes of bringing a palpable improvement in their lives and in the economy and he will also have to lay out an economic plan acceptable to international lenders, the IMF and the EU whose financing line kept the country afloat after the October 2008 solvency crisis.

“Orban’s political room for manoeuvre will be much bigger, but this also means a danger as every possible failure in governing will also be his failure,” said Peter Kreko, analyst at Political Capital.

Orban rose to fame when, in 1989, he stood up and demanded Soviet troops get out of Hungary during a ceremony for the reburial of former prime minister Imre Nagy, who led an anti-Soviet uprising.

Since the first post-communist democratic election in 1990, when his liberal party first got into parliament, he has transformed Fidesz into a mainstream conservative group appealing mostly to the middle class and entrepreneurs.

When he lost the 2006 vote to the Socialists, the second parliamentary election defeat in a row, some analysts doubted Orban would ever be able to climb back and win again.

But no one in Fidesz has ever seriously challenged his position as a leader, even in the most difficult times.

He is seen as a pragmatic politician, but with a combative style that could lead to squabbles with some of Hungary’s neighbors such as Slovakia — and also Brussels.

A conservative icon on the right who is able to take tens of thousands of supporters to the streets, Orban is seen by many of his opponents on the left as a control-freak and populist.

A trained lawyer who studied political philosophy at Oxford University, Orban is a strategist planning for the long term.

In a speech in late 2009 he envisaged that the next 15-20 years of Hungarian politics could be defined by “one central political force” instead of the dual system of the past years.

A keen amateur soccer player Orban appeals to many ordinary Hungarians with his down-to-earth approach.

Born on May 31, 1963, to a farming family in the village of Alcsutdoboz, Orban is married with five children.

(Writing by Krisztina Than; Editing by Alison Williams)

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NEWSMAKER-Hungary’s Orban stages big comeback, faces tough job

April 12, 2010 By Leave a Comment

BUDAPEST, April 12 (Reuters) – Viktor Orban is on the cusp of the most sweeping election victory any Hungarian politician has achieved since the country’s transition to democracy — and the toughest challenge of his career as a politician.

Orban’s centre-right Fidesz party, which was in power under Orban’s leadership as prime minister between 1998-2002, has a good chance of gaining two-thirds of seats in Hungary’s next parliament based on results of the first round of elections on Sunday in which Fidesz won 206 seats of the total 386.

This could give Fidesz a strong enough mandate to rewrite basic laws and launch deep state reforms that are essential for putting Hungary back on track to sustainable and fast economic growth after a deep recession last year.

The charismatic and resilient leader of the conservative right, Orban, still only 46, has made a remarkable comeback after two lost elections in 2002 and 2006.

After eight years Fidesz has ousted the Socialist Party, which Orban denounces as unpatriotic, corrupt and dishonest communists who nearly destroyed the country.

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“Today Hungarians again raised their head and condemned a whole era … In 2010, they drew a line under an era which has failed and chose unity, order and safety,” Orban told cheering supporters on Sunday night after declaring victory.

Orban ran a cautious campaign that steered clear of details on how he would cut taxes and “create 1 million jobs in 10 years” as he sought to leverage his party’s high popularity ratings ahead of the vote.

He has been extremely careful on taking a stand on anything that may damage him or his party, but he will need to quickly lay out a consistent and credible strategy after the second round of elections on April 25.

“He will face by far the biggest task of his career,” political scientist Peter Tolgyessy told weekly Magyar Narancs prior to the vote.

“After the election he will have to decide within a couple of weeks about the strategy of his government, in a way which will determine his four-year term,” he added.

LONG TERM STRATEGIST

Orban will have to live up to voters’ hopes of bringing a palpable improvement in their lives and in the economy and he will also have to lay out an economic plan acceptable to international lenders, the IMF and the EU whose financing line kept the country afloat after the October 2008 solvency crisis.

“Orban’s political room for manoeuvre will be much bigger, but this also means a danger as every possible failure in governing will also be his failure,” said Peter Kreko, analyst at Political Capital.

Orban rose to fame when, in 1989, he stood up and demanded Soviet troops get out of Hungary during a ceremony for the reburial of former prime minister Imre Nagy, who led an anti-Soviet uprising.

Since the first post-communist democratic election in 1990, when his liberal party first got into parliament, he has transformed Fidesz into a mainstream conservative group appealing mostly to the middle class and entrepreneurs.

When he lost the 2006 vote to the Socialists, the second parliamentary election defeat in a row, some analysts doubted Orban would ever be able to climb back and win again.

But no one in Fidesz has ever seriously challenged his position as a leader, even in the most difficult times.

He is seen as a pragmatic politician, but with a combative style that could lead to squabbles with some of Hungary’s neighbours such as Slovakia — and also Brussels.

A conservative icon on the right who is able to take tens of thousands of supporters to the streets, Orban is seen by many of his opponents on the left as a control-freak and populist.

A trained lawyer who studied political philosophy at Oxford University, Orban is a strategist planning for the long term.

In a speech in late 2009 he envisaged that the next 15-20 years of Hungarian politics could be defined by “one central political force” instead of the dual system of the past years.

A keen amateur soccer player Orban appeals to many ordinary Hungarians with his down-to-earth approach.

Born on May 31, 1963, to a farming family in the village of Alcsutdoboz, Orban is married with five children. (Writing by Krisztina Than; Editing by Alison Williams)

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Hungary’s Orban declares victory, sees challenge

April 12, 2010 By Leave a Comment

BUDAPEST, April 11 (Reuters) – Hungary’s next prime minister Viktor Orban declared election victory for his centre-right Fidesz and said Hungarians had voted on Sunday to “defeat hopelessness”.

Bonds

“Hungarians voted on Hungary and Hungary’s future. Today Hungary’s citizens have defeated hopelessness,” he told party supporters.

“I feel it with all my nerves and know it deep in my heart that I face the biggest task of my life. I will need all the Hungarian people to solve that.” (Reporting by Sandor Peto)

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EU pulls Darfur poll observers over safety fears

April 8, 2010 By Leave a Comment

The European Union on Wednesday withdrew its election observers from Sudan’s Darfur region, saying safety fears were hindering their work.

Sudan is days away from what should be its first multi-party presidential, legislative and gubernatorial elections in 24 years, but opposition parties have said the polls in Darfur will be a farce while a seven-year conflict continues in the region.

“I have decided to come back with all the team. The six observers who are…in Darfur,” Veronique De Keyser, who heads the EU’s election mission in Sudan, told reporters.

There has been a rash of kidnappings of Westerners in Darfur together with repeated bandit attacks and reports of fresh fighting between rebels and government forces.

President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for suspected war crimes in Darfur, hopes to reinforce his rule with an election victory.

De Keyser said she was concerned the team would only be able to see a fraction of the voting, due to take place from Sunday to Tuesday, and could miss irregularities.

“We are forced to stay in a very limited area … There is a risk of putting the credibility of the whole mission in danger,” she said.

The Belgian member of the European Parliament said the team was well treated in Darfur, but she had been worried for their safety in remote areas.

NO ACCESS

“In some parts of Darfur the violence is terrible. The humanitarians cannot access this area. And if aid cannot access, we cannot access,” she added.

The observers, who flew back on a private plane hired by the mission, said they were disappointed to leave but prepared to move on to watch the elections in other parts of Sudan. “We have to face up to the reality of the situation,” said one.

The EU team, which arrived in Darfur in mid March, consists of two observers in each of the three state capitals.

Violence flared in Darfur in 2003 when mostly non-Arab rebels took up arms against Sudan’s government, accusing it of neglecting to develop the region.

The United Nations estimates that up to 300,000 people may have died after the government mounted a counter insurgency, arming mostly Arab militias. Khartoum rejects the accusation, putting the death count at 10,000.

De Keyser said she was also worried after Bashir threatened to expel international observers who pushed for a delay in the ballot. He threatened to cut off their fingers and tongues.

“You don’t usually treat international observers you have invited like that. … It doesn’t reflect the traditional hospitality of the Arab world,” she said.

Sudanese activists and electoral observers on Wednesday urged the international observer missions to withdraw fully from Africa’s largest country.

“International elections observer missions should immediately pull out of Sudan,” they said in a joint statement.

The activists said the international observers could not fully cover the 10,000 voting centres and with the U.S.-based Carter Center being the only long-term mission, the others had missed most of the fraud during last year’s voter registration.

“These missions lend the appearance of legitimacy to what has been proven to be a deeply flawed elections process and the presumed re-election of a man who is internationally wanted for war crimes in a vote that is neither free nor fair.”

The EU is the largest international mission with some 130 observers.

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Q+A – Japan PM mired in row over U.S. base move

March 31, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said on Wednesday he has a plan to resolve a row with Washington over the relocation of a U.S. Marine base on Okinawa island, but he did not want to make it public.

He had previously set himself a self-imposed deadline of Wednesday to gather together proposals to untangle the crisis, but dismissed questions about whether failure might force him to resign.

Hatoyama needs to resolve the feud to help restore confidence in his six-month old government ahead of an upper house election expected in July, which his ruling Democratic Party must win to avoid a policy stalemate.

A string of financial scandals involving ruling party lawmakers has eroded support in opinion polls to between 30-40 percent, about half the peaks hit when the Democrats took power in September.

Following are some questions and answers about the issue:

WHY HAS THIS DISPUTE COME TO A HEAD NOW?

Before Hatoyama’s election victory, he raised hopes that a 2006 plan agreed by the previous government with Washington to shift the Futenma Marine base to another part of Okinawa could be changed and the facility moved off the island.

Angered by the noise, crime and pollution they associate with the bases, many residents want him to stick to that stance.

Hatoyama pledged to pull together alternative proposals by the end of March, though not necessarily make them public, and to reach a final decision by the end of May, ahead of a possible meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama.

Nearly half of respondents to a newspaper poll last week said Hatoyama should resign if he failed to reach a deal by the end of May and media have interpreted his comments to mean he shares that view.

WHAT DO FINANCIAL MARKETS THINK?

Japanese financial markets are not reacting to the base row on a daily basis, because expectations were low from the outset that Hatoyama could resolve the issue quickly.

But any sudden and serious worsening of bilateral ties could jolt confidence in Japanese stocks, the yen and Japanese government bonds

CAN HATOYAMA RESOLVE THE DISPUTE AND STAY ON?

Maybe, but chances are fading that a new deal can be reached by the May deadline. U.S. officials have repeatedly said they believe the current plan is the best, while the Democrats’ tiny coalition allies oppose it.

Media say several options are being floated, one involving building a new runway within the existing Camp Schwab base on Okinawa. This would reduce the bases’ overall footprint and avoid landfill in a bay frequented by the dugong, a rare marine mammal.

Another involves construction on landfill off another part of Okinawa, media say, but neither option is likely to find favour with local residents.

Hatoyama might agree to the current plan, or one with slight modifications, but that would also outrage many Okinawans and cause a rift with two tiny parties whose backing is needed to pass laws smoothly.

It might also spark puzzlement as to why Hatoyama raised the issue in the first place.

The dispute seems unlikely to spill over into trade and investment ties between the world’s two biggest economies. But damage to the alliance could create uncertainty in a region home to a rising China and an unpredictable North Korea, eventually affecting investment flows.

WHY CLOSE THE FUTENMA BASE AND REPLACE IT?

Residents of Okinawa, 1,600 km (1,000 miles) south of Tokyo and reluctant host to about half the 49,000 U.S. military personnel in Japan, have long resented what they see as an unfair burden in maintaining the security alliance.

Outrage flares periodically among residents, most strikingly after the 1995 rape of a schoolgirl by three U.S. servicemen.

As part of a 1996 pact to reduce the U.S. military presence, the United States and Japan agreed to close Futenma Air Station, home to about 4,000 Marines and located in crowded Ginowan City, within seven years if a replacement could be found on Okinawa.

An initial plan for an offshore facility in northern Okinawa was opposed by locals and environmentalists. The current plan is for relocation to Nago, where it would be partly built within another base and on reclaimed land.

IS THIS JUST ABOUT FUTENMA?

No. The issue is much broader. Washington and Tokyo agreed in 2006 on a “road map” to transform the decades-old alliance, the pillar of Japan’s post-World War Two security policies.

Part of a U.S. effort to make its military more flexible globally, the realignment fitted efforts by the then-ruling LDP to shed the constraints of Japan’s pacifist constitution and assume a higher security profile.

Central to the pact was a plan to reorganise U.S. troops in Japan, including a shift of up to 8,000 Marines by 2014 to the U.S. territory of Guam from Okinawa. The Marines’ move, however, depends on finding a replacement site for Futenma.

(Additional reporting by Linda Sieg and Masayuki Kitano)

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‘Old pal’ Blair tries to boost Brown’s election victory chances

March 31, 2010 By Leave a Comment

London, Mar 31 (ANI): British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who is struggling in Exit Polls ahead of the elections, has called up his old “pal” to boost his fading chances at the hustings.

The move is being seen as a bizarre and desperate gamble aimed at winning the next election for Labour.

Former premier Tony Blair who made a comeback speech in his former constituency of Sedgefield, praised Brown and launched an attack on the confused Conservative Party.

“Think of all the phrases you associate with their leadership and the phrase ‘you know where you are with them’ is about the last description you would think of,” the Daily Star quoted Blair, as saying.

Blair’s return to the political fray was however met with derision. Tory party chairman Eric Pickles said: “This may have been the usual slick performance but it told us nothing about what Labour has to offer. He and Gordon Brown have presided over 13 years of debt, waste and taxes on working people.”

Tory leader David Cameron said he was “not at all” worried about Blair’s contribution to the campaign. He joked: “It is nice to see him making a speech that no-one is paying for.”

Cameron was apparently making a reference to the fortune Blair has made from lecture tours in the US. He is said to charge a six-figure sum for a single speech.

Stop the War Coalition officer Andrew Burgin said Labour made an “enormous mistake” by bringing Blair into their election campaign. (ANI)

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Analysts’ first take on Iraq election

March 27, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s coalition won the most seats in Iraq’s March 7 parliamentary election, according to full preliminary results released on Friday.

The bloc with the most parliamentary seats is given the first opportunity to form a new government.

Here are some initial reactions to the results:

GALA RIANI, ANALYST WITH IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT

“Allawi has achieved what Maliki had hoped and aimed to do. The mission he had was to run a coalition on a non-sectarian platform and secure an election victory on that platform.

“Iraqiya (Allawi’s bloc) has fared much better across the board than State of Law (Maliki’s bloc) has, much better in the southern provinces than State of Law did in the north. It puts Allawi in a better place to secure better credibility across the county.

“What Allawi has achieved is hugely significant. It’s a massive blow to Maliki, to his credibility and to the type of platform he has tried to run.”

TONY DODGE, READER IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS, UNIVERSITY OF LONDON:

“That’s an amazing result. The fact that Allawi is leading means that he has the first chance at forming a government. Technically this gives him the lead.”

The result is “a damning indictment of the ruling party, the insiders that have dominated Iraqi politics for the last five years. We just have to see if Allawi has the wherewithal to form a government.

“Iran backed the INA (the mainly Shi’ite Iraqi National Alliance) and half-heartedly backed Maliki. Now that Allawi is moving through Baghdad trying to build a coalition, Iran will be going through Baghdad with a lot of money trying to build a coalition.

“It would not be too harmful to suggest that Washington and Tehran have opposing objectives in the formation of the next government … Allawi for the Americans and whoever Tehran thinks will be the most effective representative of the Shia Islamist party.

“The big points are that Allawi represents an anti-incumbent vote. The people who voted for Allawi voted against the last five years. This is potentially destabilising, but very important.

“Let’s hope that the army stays in its barracks, I think it will. But we will see some rocky times before the formation of the next government.”

DR. AMI M. ANGELL, VISITING RESEARCH FELLOW, INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM RESEARCH

“There are going to be a significant number upset about the outcome, no matter what it is. But they will support the outcome, if positive changes in policy are rapidly introduced. … (Iraqis) are tired of the violence, tired of the corruption and tired of the fighting. I don’t know how eager they are going to be to pick up arms and join another fight. I honestly believe that the populace will follow anyone – at this point – who follows through on his word.”

(Reporting by Ian Simpson and Jim Loney; Editing by Jon Hemming)

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Tory leader Cameron heading for massive election win

March 16, 2010 By Leave a Comment

London, Mar.16 (ANI): The leader of Britain’s Conservative Party, David Cameron, is heading for a massive election victory.

The Daily Star quoted an opinion poll forecast as saying that the Conservatives have stretched their lead over Labour to 11 percent.

It is the first opinion poll this year to restore the Tories to a double-figure lead.

It puts Cameron on course for a majority of around 40 seats.

Last night he pledged that a Tory government would mean “more prosperity and a better life”. (ANI)

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Tory leader Cameron heading for massive election win

March 16, 2010 By Leave a Comment

London, Mar.16 (ANI): The leader of Britain’s Conservative Party, David Cameron, is heading for a massive election victory.

The Daily Star quoted an opinion poll forecast as saying that the Conservatives have stretched their lead over Labour to 11 percent.

It is the first opinion poll this year to restore the Tories to a double-figure lead.

It puts Cameron on course for a majority of around 40 seats.

Last night he pledged that a Tory government would mean “more prosperity and a better life”. (ANI)

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Burma annuls Suu Kyi’s election victory

March 13, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Burma’s military government has annulled the last election held in the country, which was won in a landslide by the party of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Burma’s last elections were won in a landslide by the National League for Democracy party led by Aung San Suu Kyi.

Ms Suu Kyi won about 80 per cent of the vote but was immediately placed under house arrest, where she has remained for much of the past 20 years.

Burma is due to hold its first election since then later this year.

The military government has this week been releasing the rules for the poll, which include a clause that Ms Suu Kyi’s party must expel her if they want to participate in the vote.

International observers are dismayed by the move, which will add to fears that the election will be a sham.

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Karzai unlikely to claim Afghan election victory soon

September 17, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Washington, Sep.17 (ANI): With accusations of vote fraud piling up around Afghanistan’s presidential election, incumbent Hamid Karzai is unlikely to claim victory any time soon.

At the very least, a national electoral complaints commission investigating fraudulent voting will take weeks to determine how much of Karzai’s officially declared 54.6 percent of the vote will be tossed out, reports the Christian Science Monitor.

At the other extreme, a potential need for a runoff vote could end up stretching Afghanistan’s political turmoil into next spring – presenting President Obama and other NATO leaders with an unsettled and deteriorating climate just as crucial policy decisions are under review.

Marvin Weinbaum, a former State Department intelligence specialist in Asian affairs now at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said:. “We face a possible constitutional crisis that, if not resolved, becomes a disaster for us, and a partner [Karzai] acting in ways that in effect raise questions as to whether he should be in there or not.”

Aside from a runoff vote, which could be declared if investigations show Karzai’s total falling below 50 percent, some parties are calling for a coalition government, while others support the idea of a nonpolitical transitional government.

That debate has crystallized in a row between foreign officials over the best way to address Afghanistan’s political predicament. Peter Galbraith, a senior US official working in Kabul as the deputy special UN representative for Afghanistan, abruptly left the country after clashing with his boss, Kai Eide, over what path forward to advocate.

Galbraith favors a larger recount of votes, even if it leads to a runoff between Karzai and his main political rival, Abdullah Abdullah, and an extended period of political uncertainty. (ANI)

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Six Mousavi supporters reportedly hanged in Iran

July 1, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Jerusalem, July 1 (ANI): Six supporters of defeated Iran’s presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi have reportedly been hanged after the authorities warned the opposition that they would tolerate no further protests over the disputed June 12 presidential elections.

Speaking after Iran’s Guardian Council upheld the election victory of incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, sources in Iran said in a telephone interview that the hangings took place in the holy city of Mashhad on Monday.

There was no independent confirmation of the report, The Jerusalem Post reports.

The sources also reported that a prominent cleric gave a speech to opposition protesters in Teheran earlier this week in which he publicly acknowledged that the very act of speaking at the gathering could cost him his life.

“Ayatollah Hadi Gafouri said that the Imam (Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini) never wanted current supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to succeed him. He even went to say that the Islamic republic died the day the Imam did,” one source said.

Other criticisms from senior clerics over the regime’s handling of the elections and subsequent protests included a report from a Persian news agency, which on Tuesday quoted a senior cleric from the city of Esfahan, Ayatollah Seyyed Jalaleddin Taheri-Esfahani, defending Mousavi against the regime’s criticisms.

On Monday, witnesses said thousands of policemen and Basij militiamen carrying batons were deployed in Tehran’s main squares to prevent any recurrence of the opposition protests.

Women police, better known as the Sisters of Zeynab, are also now out in force, the witnesses said.

“Some people are still going out into the streets, but there is despair and sadness. Now we are told that (pro-Mousavi) green bands are illegal, which is ironic because it symbolizes the colour of Islam,” said one source. (ANI)

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FACTBOX – Who will head the key ministries in India?

May 22, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Prime Minister-elect Manmohan Singh will be sworn in for a second term on Friday after the election victory of his Congress party-led coalition, which has since won the support of enough lawmakers for a parliamentary majority.

The following is a round-up, based on local media reports and Congress party officials’ comments, of politicians likely to head key ministries.

FINANCE

Sources say Pranab Mukherjee, who was foreign minister in previous coalition, is the frontrunner for the job of finance minister. Mukherjee had been looking after finance since January when Prime Minister Singh underwent heart surgery.

Mukherjee is seen as a stable hand and shrewd political operator. He has a history of pushing reforms, including signing up to a WTO agreement giving nations more access to global trade in 1994 when he was commerce minister.

But, with India facing its slowest growth in six years and a yawning fiscal deficit, Singh, himself a reform-minded former finance minister, could bring in a specialist.

Names cited include Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission, and C. Rangarajan, a former central bank governor and an economic adviser to the prime minister.

COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY

Kamal Nath, who has played a key role as a negotiator for emerging nations in the struggling Doha round of global trade talks, may stay on as commerce and industry minister.

But Nath also could be named foreign minister, some TV channels said, and Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal could replace him in trade.

India’s pro-farmer stand in the Doha round is unlikely to change significantly. But under Nath, India may be more inclined to offer concessions in opening up its market to foreign participation after leftist influence in government has ended.

FOREIGN

One contender could be Sibal, a reform-minded politician with a suave image that could go down well in foreign capitals.

Some media say senior Congress leader Salman Khurshid may also be considered. The Oxford-educated Khurshid was junior foreign minister from 1993-1996.

HOME

Palaniappan Chidambaram may stay. He is seen as having successfully revamped India’s security apparatus after last November’s Mumbai attacks.

DEFENCE

A.K. Antony, seen as an honest politician and another safe pair of hands with billions of dollars of arms deals in the pipeline, could keep his post.

TELECOMS & IT

Reform-minded Dayanidhi Maran and Andimuthu Raja, former telecoms ministers in the last government and both from key Congress party ally DMK, remain the top contenders for this post.

But the DMK is now embroiled in a row with Congress over ministerial positions, and has said it may extend only outside support to the coalition. The threat, however, is expected to be shortlived.

Maran carried out reforms when he was telecoms minister in the last Congress government and now faces the difficult task of a multi-billion dollar auction of third-generation spectrum that will allow users to have fast Internet on their mobile phones. The auction was to be in January but has been delayed.

INFORMATION & BROADCASTING

Local reports suggest Rahul Gandhi, heir-apparent of the Congress party, may be offered this position, regarded as a stepping stone for a man seen as a future prime minister.

The portfolio has added importance with the government expected to raise the foreign investment limit in the print media to 49 percent from the current 26 percent.

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Suu Kyi denies violating Burmese regime’s house arrest rules

May 18, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Yangon (Myanmar), May 18 (ANI): Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is to deny breaking the terms of her house arrest as imposed by the country’s military junta.

Suu Kyi, 63, who has spent 13 of the last 19 years under house arrest, faces up to five years in jail after an American man swam across a lake to reach her house.

“She asked me to tell her friends and everyone that she is quite well,” The Telegraph quoted her lawyer, Kyi Win, after meeting her on Saturday.

“She is ready to tell the truth that she never broke the law,” Win added.

According to the lawyer, Suu Kyi demanded that John Yettaw, 53, leave her home when he appeared there uninvited earlier this month but eventually took pity on him and allowed him to rest.

He was detected and arrested as he swam away again two days later.

Last week, Suu Kyi was transferred from her home to Rangoon’s Insein prison.

Yettaw appears to be an eccentric acting at his own initiative but his actions handed Burma’s ruling junta a pretext to prosecute Suu Kyi.

Suu Kyi’s current term of detention was due to expire later this month but analysts say the military regime, which has ruled since 1962, is determined to keep her in detention ahead of elections planned for next year.

Suu Kyi won a sweeping election victory in 1990 but the generals ignored the result and jailed her.

Next year’s polls have been widely dismissed as a sham. (ANI)

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UPA’s victory a vindication of its policies: Praful Patel

May 17, 2009 By Leave a Comment

New Delhi, May 17 (ANI): The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) on Sunday said that the United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA) victory in 2009 general elections was a vindication of the policies adopted by the coalition.

“People of India have reposed faith in the UPA irrespective of caste and creed across the country. UPA’s win is a vindication of the policies, programmes and values for which the UPA came together,” senior NCP leader and Union Minister Praful Patel said.

Patel further said the country has already seen a stable and progressive government under the leadership of Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi.

Patel also expressed support to the Congress in government formation.

“NCP Chief Sharad Pawar today telephoned Gandhi as also Singh to congratulate them on the election victory and assured them that his party was ready to cooperate in the formation of the government without any condition. The NCP will now support the formation of the new UPA government,” he added.

When asked about the inclusion of the Samajwadi Party (SP) in the government, Patel said party leaders should take appropriate decisions in the lager interests of the coalition.

“Pawar had a meeting with Gandhi three days back during which both the leaders discussed the post poll scenario. It is for the Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh and all leaders of the UPA to take appropriate decision in the larger interests of the coalition,” he added. (ANI)

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Election Commissioner expresses satisfaction with vote count

May 16, 2009 By Leave a Comment

New Delhi, May 16 (ANI): Election Commissioner S.Y Qureshi on Saturday expressed his satisfaction with the counting of votes process.

Talking to reporters here, Qureshi said: “I took a round of all the counting halls. The elections were conducted well and all parties appreciated it along with the media. All arrangements are going on perfectly and our political party agents, officials, observers and micro-observers are working smoothly and without any complaints.”

The Election Commission (EC) has introduced a new system – a random check by observers and micro-observers at the end of every round of counting.

Computerized counting of votes at over a thousand centres across the country began at 8:00 a.m. with the results for all parliamentary seats expected by 4:00 p.m.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is heading for a second term after this general election victory, according to the latest trends available. (ANI)

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Clinton adviser says Democrats will dominate for 40 years

May 14, 2009 By Leave a Comment

Washington, May 14 (ANI): The man who masterminded Bill Clinton’s first election victory in 1992, James Carville, has predicted that the Democratic Party will dominate American politics for the next four decades due to “seismic shifts” in demographic voting patterns.

Polls show that a record low of 24 per cent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans, while twice as many voters trust the Democrats to solve the country’s problems.

Carville said the party’s emphatic win last year demonstrated long lasting, built-in electoral advantages over the Republicans, who had made a huge mistake by retreating to their conservative base under George W Bush.

In a new book, “40 More Years – How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation”, he writes in typically barnstorming fashion: “Republicans shouldn’t be worried. They should be in agony. They should be throwing up. The Republican brand is the worst political party brand in history.”

“There have been long periods where one party generally has the upper hand. You never win every election – the Democrats won’t win every election – but for 40 years the underlying dynamics in demographics stay with them,” he told the Daily Telegraph.

From 1896 to 1932 there was just one Democratic president and from 1932 to 1968 just one moderate Republican, Eisenhower. Since 1968 the Republicans have generally held sway, exploiting the backlash to the liberal society.

But in the first decades of the 21st century, young voters have swung heavily to the Democrats, a crucial advantage given that voting behaviour in the US is generally set when people are in their 20s.

As an unashamedly partisan Democrat, Carville rejoices in Republican misfortune, but also claims that none of his high-powered Republican friends – Congressmen, pollsters and columnists – disagree with his hypothesis. (ANI)

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