EURO GOVT-Bunds rise on weak U.S. economic outlook

July 29 (Reuters) – Bund futures opened higher on Thursday, lifted by concerns over the U.S. economy after weak data in the previous session, with a euro zone sentiment survey seen adding to safe-haven bids if it fails to meet expectations. The euro zone survey released at 0900 GMT is expected to show a small gain in economic sentiment, but could lend further support to Bunds if it falls below the forecast of 99.0.

“The risk is that it comes in below forecast and people start questioning the strength of the recovery,” a trader said.

On Wednesday, a Federal Reserve report showed lacklustre growth and U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly fell.

“It feels like we might have seen the lows of the week. I think the market is looking for signs of (risk appetite) calming down,” the trader said.

At 0605 GMT, the Bund future FGBLc1 was 8 ticks up on Thursday’s settlement close at 127.89, although slightly below the official close after a rally in late trading.

The 10-year German bond yield DE10YT=TWEB was 2.742 percent, down around 1 basis point while the two-year Schatz yield DE2YT=TWEB was flat at 0.852 percent.

In supply, benchmark peripheral sovereign Italy will come to market with auctions of conventional and floating-rate bonds worth up to 9.5 billion euros.

Although recent warmer sentiment towards the euro zone’s higher-yielding countries has seen peripheral debt sales draw good demand, a trader said there was likely to be some attempt to cheapen the Italian paper further ahead of the auction. (Reporting by William James)

JGBs gain; curve flattens ahead of month’s end

TOKYO, July 27 (Reuters) – Japanese government bonds gained on Tuesday, with futures climbing towards a seven-year peak, as investor purchases of superlongs before the month’s end added to a flattening in the yield curve.

A 2.6 trillion yen ($29.9 billion) auction of two-year government debt attracted solid demand, with the market increasingly secure in the view that the Bank of Japan will either keep rates low for the foreseeable future or ease monetary policy further.

The 0.2 percent coupon auction produced the highest bid-to-cover ratio in five years, at 5.67 from 4.31 at the last sale in June. [ID:nMOFG15004]

“The higher-than-expected lowest price at the auction suggests investors bid directly in the primary market instead of going through brokerages,” said Keiko Onogi, a senior JGB strategist at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets.

“It reflects deepening easing expectations, enhanced after the Fed’s stance last week.”

The market is focused on an uncertain outlook for the global economy now that Europe’s bank stress tests are out of the way.

Fewer-than-expected banks failed the stress tests but the JGB market reaction was limited with concerns about the banking system remaining amid criticism the tests may have been too lax.

Indicators in focus include U.S. June durable goods orders due on Wednesday and second quarter GDP on Friday.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke fuelled speculation of further easing last week when he said the U.S. economy faced “unusually uncertain” prospects, and Treasuries rallied with the 10-year note yield US10YT=RR falling to a 15-month low.

Market players said how Treasuries fare may be key for the JGB market.

“Treasuries are holding firm considering that U.S. stocks are doing relatively well, supported by prospects for further easing,” said Makoto Noji, a senior market analyst at Mizuho Securities.

“How Treasuries perform will be key, as a rise in U.S. long-term rates may drive the yen lower (against the dollar) and in turn lift stocks and hurt JGBs. On the other hand, a further decline in U.S. long-term rates would have the opposite effect.”

September 10-year futures 2JGBv1 gained 0.12 point to 141.86 after hitting a seven-year peak of 142.08 last week.

Trade in futures was thin at around 18,800 lots, compared to last week’s daily average of 23,300 lots.

The five-year yield JP5YTN=JBTC edged down 0.5 basis point to 0.345 percent.

The benchmark 10-year yield JP10YTN=JBTC fell 1 basis point to 1.050 percent, edging closer to a seven-year low of 1.045 percent hit last week.

The 20-year yield dropped 2.5 basis points to 1.745 percent.

Purchases by index-following pension funds pulled down superlong yields, said a dealer at a foreign securities house.

The five-year/20-year yield spread tightened by 2 basis points to 140 basis points, its flattest in a year.

Duration extensions by index players at the month’s end have added to flattening pressure on the yield curve, as investors like domestic banks buy more superlongs for their higher returns. (Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.25.09

The Cable’s rally ran out of gas at our 1.4781 resistance after surging on better than expected CPI and mortgage approvals data.

It appears the GBP/USD may continue its near-term downward momentum towards our uptrend line and 1.4570 support with U.S. equities looking to open lower ahead of key economic data. Today Britain will give us a better picture of its consumer sentiment with CBI Realized Sales.

Additionally, the U.S. will release a flood of data including Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and weekly Crude Inventories. We knew reaching and surpassing February highs would be a challenge.

The performance of the Cable over the rest of the week could determine whether the currency pair meets the challenge or stumbles back into its debilitating downtrend.

Surpassing 2009 highs is all about upward momentum, and if the Cable doesn’t solidify and recover soon Tuesday’s high could quickly become the peak of the next leg down.

The performance of the GBP/USD will now largely depend on the ability of U.S. equities to continue their ascent coupled with comparative inflation rates between the two economies.

Fundamentally, we maintain our resistance of 1.4671 and find fresh resistances hanging at 1.4704, 1.4781, and 1.4809. The 1.45 area will serve as a psychological cushion with 1.50 acting as a highly psychological barrier.

To the downside, we see supports of 1.4619, 1.4570, 1.4544 and 1.44498. The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4609.