Upward house prices defy rate rises

A leading private index shows house prices have continued their upward march, despite four interest rate increases in the past six months.

The Reserve Bank has, for more than half a year, explicitly expressed its concern about steep increases in home prices.

It has gone as far as hinting that the speed with which it raised interest rates at the end of last year was at least partly due to concerns about the potential for a housing bubble to develop if rates stayed too low too long.

The RP Data – Rismark index, which is watched by the RBA, shows capital city home values increased by 1.4 per cent in February, bringing up gains of 12.7 per cent over the past year.

It also reveals the median national capital city home price (includes houses and apartments) is now $455,000.

RP Data’s research director, Tim Lawless, says he is surprised by how little impact rising interest rates and the removal of government incentives has had on the market so far.

“These are the first two months where we have seen a complete absence of the first home buyers boost, and we’ve also seen four interest rate rises… that haven’t seemed to dampen the market as much as we would’ve expected,” he told ABC News Online.

“I still think going forward for the larger part of 2010 we will see growth rates around Australia moderate, but we certainly haven’t seen any indication of that to date.”

However, Mr Lawless also points out that prices in regional and rural areas have not increased as quickly, climbing by only 7 per cent in the year to February.

House prices changing lifestyles

The index also shows that disposable household incomes have roughly kept pace with increasing home prices over the past five years.

Capital city home prices rose an average of 6.2 per cent per annum over the five years to the end of 2009, while ABS figures show household disposable incomes have increased 6 per cent per annum.

However, Tim Lawless says that is largely because households are working more hours to pay for the increased cost of housing.

“People are, I suppose, combating the affordability situation. We are seeing more people paying the mortgage, so in many cases two incomes per household,” he said.

“We’re also seeing kids staying home a lot longer because it’s very difficult to afford a home as a first home buyer, and it’s also becoming very difficult to rent a home, because there are also rental affordability pressures.”

City by city

The nation’s capital now has the country’s most expensive real estate at a median price of $540,000, while Sydney’s median price was $519,000 (up 3.8 per cent in February).

Hobart had the lowest median home price of $325,000 – it also had the biggest fall in prices during February of 4.2 per cent. Perth was the only other city where prices fell (by 0.2 per cent).

Tim Lawless, says Melbourne continues to have the strongest property market in the country, with prices surging 5.4 per cent in February.

“The results are quite different from city to city. At one of the spectrum, you’ve got a city like Melbourne, where we’ve seen values up nearly 20 per cent [over the past 12 months], at 19.3 per cent,” he said.

“Down the other end of the spectrum we see cities like Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide where value are up much less than 10 per cent over the same timeframe.”

RBA praises Australia’s world-beating economy

A Reserve Bank report has again highlighted how different Australia’s experience of the financial crisis has been from other developed nations.

But while the report’s assessment of the Australian economy is glowing, it also says there are a range of international risks still threatening global financial stability.

The RBA has again highlighted the impact of stimulus – both the Federal Government’s fiscal stimulus and the bank’s own interest rate cuts.

Figures from the bank and Bureau of Statistics show employee wages fell 2.6 per cent in real terms last year as working hours were cut and wage rates stagnated.

However the report shows that government and RBA largesse more than compensated.

“Disposable incomes were boosted by accommodative fiscal and monetary policy settings,” the report noted.

“As a result, total disposable income per household increased by 3.5 per cent in real terms, and 6.6 per cent in nominal terms, over the same period.”

The recovery in the second half of 2009 has had the greatest positive effects on households with high levels of assets.

The RBA report says net worth per household increased by 11 per cent in 2009, driven largely by a 10 per cent increase in house prices which make up around 60 per cent of the nation’s aggregate household assets.

The news is perhaps not so good for younger people who have suffered from the highest rates of unemployment during the financial crisis and tend not to own a house outright.

Younger people have also benefited least from the 30 per cent recovery in share prices last year, which has given the greatest boost to those with the largest superannuation balances.

The Reserve Bank has also acknowledged the negative impact of its historically low interest rates on people with large bank savings, a group comprising many self-funded retirees.

“Lower rates would have put downward pressure on the incomes of those households holding more interest-bearing assets than liabilities,” the report said.

Debt increase

The overall improvement in household finances has also tempted more households into greater debt.

The Reserve Bank figures show growth in borrowing accelerated to an annualised rate of 8.3 per cent in the six months to January 2010 compared with 4.7 per cent in the six months to January 2009.

Most of that increase has been driven by a 10 per cent per annum growth in the amount of home loans, although credit card debt has started to rise again after remaining broadly flat in 2008 and the first half of 2009.

Despite this burgeoning debt, the Reserve Bank says current estimates are of about 27,000 households nationwide more than 90 days in arrears on their home loan repayments, only slightly higher than the estimated 23,000 at the end of 2008.

The corporate sector also recovered in the second half of last year.

The Reserve Bank says the profits of Australia’s 200 largest listed companies were around 20 per cent higher in the second half of last year compared with the first half.

But profits remained 15 per cent below levels seen in the second half of 2008.

Global concerns

Outside Australia, however, the news is not so rosy.

The Reserve Bank says there are still concerns about the level of bad debts in the US.

“The rise in charge-offs for business loans has been similar to recent downturns, but charge-offs for household loans are well above the peaks of the past 20 years,” the RBA’s report noted.

It also notes that business loan write-offs in the UK and Europe increased last year.

Globally, the bank says, the default rate on corporate “speculative-grade” debt rose above recent peaks to the highest level since the Great Depression.

The good news, says the RBA, is that the 40 per cent fall in US and UK commercial property prices appears to have bottomed out. The bad news is that the rate of loan defaults generally remains high for a number of years after the crash in prices.

The situation of US housing finance is no better, with around 8 per cent of American home loans classified as “non-performing”.

The RBA says this high default rate is likely to result in further write-offs for American, British and European banks.

It also says the sovereign debt crisis in Greece and the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) countries poses risks to financial stability.

In contrast, the RBA’s main concern with developing economies is the emergence of asset prices bubbles of a similar kind to those that burst in the developed economies over the past three years with disastrous results.

Lending growth in China was running at 27 per cent for the year to February (compare that to what is considered a strong 8.3 per cent in Australia).

The bank says China’s recent moves to tighten lending standards are slowing the rate of loan growth, but it will be hoping the lending is being reined in before too many asset price bubbles have been formed.

African beer keeps head as other markets go flat

DAKAR/KINSHASA (Reuters) – As the sun sets over the Congo River, drinkers trickle into Kinshasa’s “Staff Franc Congolais” bar, testament to the resilience of Africa’s thirst for beer even in difficult places and tough times.

“I get by. The Congolese drink every day. It’s a distraction — there’s no world crisis as far as beer is concerned,” says a co-owner, known as “Franc Congolais” after the local currency.

He adopted the nickname when rebels seized the vast country, formerly Zaire, in 1997 and changed its name back to the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Its many violent upheavals habitually involve looting, although residents say breweries are mostly left untouched.

“If I can sell 120 bottles at 200 francs ($0.25) profit each in a day, that’s enough for me,” Franc Congolais said.

Big brewers operating in Africa may be slower to dismiss the threat from the global economic crisis that has caused economic havoc in the Democratic Republic of Congo and elsewhere.

Some brewers report a slowdown in sales growth, but they say Africa nevertheless offers rich expansion prospects compared with elsewhere, and even reduced growth on the continent will outstrip that of other regions this year.

“For sure we’re seeing an impact, but still Africa is in growth, is providing more growth than many other parts of the world, and that’s the environment where we’re operating,” said Nick Blazquez, Diageo’s managing director for Africa.

The International Monetary Fund has cut its 2009 economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 2.2 percent from 5.1 percent six months ago, although that is still well ahead of the 3-percent-plus contraction expected in advanced economies.

Lower commodity export revenues and a slowdown in remittance income from workers overseas are squeezing disposable incomes and currency fluctuations are hurting some breweries, which mostly rely heavily on imported materials.

East African Breweries, Kenya’s leading brewery which is majority-owned by Diageo, is cutting jobs after pre-tax profit growth slowed to 5 percent in the six months to December 31 from 22 percent a year earlier, mainly as a result of high input costs.

HOLDING UP

With beer sales holding up better than in most regions, investments in new capacity in Africa, including those that have been on the cards for years, have taken on new importance.

“We are putting money into Africa based on the assumption there will be growth,” Mark Bowman, Africa managing director of the world’s number two brewer, SABMiller, told Reuters in Johannesburg.

The company is building four new plants in Africa, including Sudan’s sole industrial brewery, and increasing capacity at existing plants to cater for double-digit volume growth across its beer and associated soft drinks businesses.

Nile Breweries, SABMiller’s subsidiary in Uganda, will lose some of its export trade to the new brewery in southern Sudan, but is in the process of doubling its output over several years.

“We haven’t seen any slackening in demand for our local products,” Nile’s Managing Director Nick Jenkinson said in his office, away from the deafening racket of the brewery in Jinja, 80 km (50 miles) from Uganda’s capital, Kampala.

“The situation now is that we can’t supply all the demand in the market,” he said.

Competition for market share is intense. Dutch brewer Heineken and Diageo are building South Africa’s first major non-SABMiller brewery, hoping to boost market share for their high-end Amstel, Heineken and Guinness brands. SABMiller is cutting costs in its home market in preparation.

The global brewers are also in competition across a range of west and central African markets, sometimes in partnership with each other or with the French drinks group Castel, which has a large market share in much of francophone Africa.

Africa is credited with producing some of the earliest brewers in ancient times and Guinness was first shipped to Sierra Leone in the early 19th century. Yet the continent merits barely a footnote in most world beer guides.

Despite Africa’s importance to some brewers — SABMiller makes almost one-third of its profits there and the continent hosts four of the top 10 markets for Diageo’s flagship Guinness stout — per capita beer consumption of 9.5 liters a year is the lowest of any region except the mostly Muslim Middle East.

GROWTH POTENTIAL

In March, investment bank Renaissance Capital issued a “buy” recommendation on Diageo’s Guinness Nigeria subsidiary and Heineken’s Nigerian Breweries, noting the capacity for growth in Africa’s most populous country.

“Across the cycle, we see significant opportunities in the Nigerian beer market given relatively low beer per capita consumption of 9.3 liters vs the average of 56 liters across other emerging markets. This is why it is attractive to global brewers,” it said.

Higher consumption of nearer 60 liters per year in wealthier African countries such as South Africa and Gabon demonstrates the potential for growth as average incomes in Africa rise.

Brewers are also moving into the low-cost end of the market, hoping to pick up some of an informal alcohol market which SABMiller reckons could be worth $3 billion a year.

Innovations include substituting local barley, sorghum and cassava for imported barley to make European-style lager more cheaply, as well as more traditional cloudy brews to compete with local artisanal brews at 30 percent or more below the $1 average price of a lager, SABMiller said.

“Most poor Africans are drinking alcohol, but informally made … the potential for growth in Africa is greater than anywhere else in the world,” said Jenkinson, whose Jinja brewery produces a clear lager called Eagle, made with sorghum.

“In Africa, beer is a very price sensitive commodity.”

In Congo, Franc Congolais’s business partner Pepin Mambote ruefully agrees.

The collapse in prices for the country’s metals exports has driven down the value of the Congolese franc, forcing up the cost of beer made from imported ingredients and pushing more consumers toward artisanal drinks — and out of his bar.

“Before, people would throw punches just to have a seat. Now look — there is an empty chair over there. I’m telling you, times are tough,” he said.

“If you are a beer drinker, the beer isn’t expensive. It’s life that’s expensive.”

(Additional reporting by Rebecca Harrison in Johannesburg, Jack Kimball in Jinja, Uganda; Editing by David Clarke and Andrew Dobbie)

Slump has worsened, say three European nations’ economists

Munich – The economic slump in the euro zone has worsened, economists from three nations said Tuesday in a new study.

“Despite the deployment of government stimulus packages, the economic outlook remains gloomy,” said the joint report by the IFO Institute of Germany, Insee of France and the ISAE economic research institute of Italy.

The group said the decline had become steeper since the start of this year and the euro zone was now in a serious recession.

They estimated the decline in the zone’s gross domestic product in the first quarter at 1.9 per cent, greater than fourth quarter 2008′s decline of 1.6 per cent, but suggested the fall would ease to 0.6 per cent in the second quarter and 0.2 per cent in the third.

Private consumption was set to decline, mainly because real disposable incomes were set to perceptibly contract, they warned.

The study added that investment which bumped sharply lower at the end of last year would keep declining, both because of continued strain in financial markets and because of the costs of running businesses at well below capacity.

Basing their prediction on a world oil price averaging 45 dollars a barrel and an exchange rate stabilizing at 1.35 dollars per euro, they forecast inflation rates at the end of June and September of minus 0.2 per cent.

But the three nations’ economists said they did not anticipate any deflationary risk, since the “underlying” inflation rate was firmly positive. (dpa)