EU carbon nudges down in quiet market open

(Reuters) – European carbon emissions futures were down 3 cents or 0.2 percent in early trade on Wednesday, following strong gains on Tuesday.

Gulf Oil Spill

EU Allowances for December delivery in 2011 were trading at 16.03 euros ($21.51) a tonne at 0705 GMT.

Dec-10 certified emissions reductions (CERs) were unchanged at 13 euros a tonne, setting the EUA-CER spread at 3.03 euros.

Traders said strong gains on Tuesday had prompted a more cautious opening across power, gas and carbon on Wednesday.

“All the markets are a bit slack, taking a breather,” one trader said. “It’s a very quiet open.”

“Carbon had a rally on Tuesday, gas and power too.”

A UK auction of 4.4 million EUAs on Thursday would bring more volume to the market, possibly delaying a new upward trend, he added.

“I think there’s essentially some bullish signals on carbon. But it’s a little premature given we have a lot of volume coming in. It’s likely we’ll retrace a little before we gain a new direction.”

German Calendar 2011 baseload power on the EEX was down 9 cents at 54.45 euros per megawatt hour.

Oil rose for a third day on Wednesday, nearing $73, after an industry report showed a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude stocks, bolstering the view that a glut will dwindle as demand resurges.

(Reporting by Gerard Wynn; editing by James Jukwey)

PRECIOUS-Gold mostly flat, ETF stays at record

TOKYO, April 16 (Reuters) – Gold was little changed on Thursday after rising slightly in the previous session on strong demand from India, the top bullion buyer.

* Demand from India offset a slight drop in U.S. consumer inflation, which could dull the metal’s allure as an inflation hedge, but traders say inflation remains a long-term concern due to the massive economy stimulus plans announced by central banks.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Gold was at $890.45 per ounce at 0005 GMT on Thursday, down 0.02 percent from New York’s notional close of $890.60.

* The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, said holdings as of April 15 remained unchanged at a record 1,127.68 tonnes, a level first reached on April 9. [GOL/SPDR]

MARKET NEWS

* Japan’s benchmark Nikkei average .N225 opened up 1.21 percent at 8,848.43 on Thursday. [.T]

* U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday amid numerous signs the recession could be abating. [.T]

* The dollar gained on Wednesday as persistent concerns about the global economy added to the greenback’s safe-haven allure. [USD/]

* U.S. crude CLc1 bounced back on Thursday after easing in the previous session pressured by government data which showed U.S. crude stocks last week were at the highest level since September 1990. [O/R]

DATA EVENTS

* The following data/event is expected on Thursday: ECON

- Euro zone Feb industrial production (0900 GMT)

- Euro zone March consumer prices (0900 GMT)

- Weekly U.S. jobless claims (1230 GMT)

- U.S. March housing starts (1230 GMT)

RELATED NEWS > Gold rises in quiet trade as inflation eyed [GOL/] > Copper at 6-month peaks; rest mostly down [COM/WRAP] > India gold demand edged up ahead of festival [ID:nBOM188197] > U.S. economic data weak but some signs of hope [ID:nN15491736] > Chrsyler-Fiat talks intensify [ID:nN15377480]

PRICES

Precious metals prices at 0000 GMT

Metal Last Change Pct chg Day ago pct MA 30 RSI Spot gold $890.85 $0.25 +0.03% -0.69% $860.10 44 Spot silver $12.75 $0.00 +0.00% +6.43% $11.29 53 Spot plat $1215.00 -$1.50 -0.12% +0.91% $1137.65 68 COMEX gold $893.00 $1.80 +0.20% -0.22% $914.86 43 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.322 $0.000 +0.00% -0.25% Dlr/yen 99.26 -0.13 -0.13% +0.49% TOCOM prices in yen per gram, except for TOCOM silver which is priced in yen per 10 grams. Spot prices in $ per ounce. (Reporting by Miho Yoshikawa)

Oil hovers above $49

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Oil fell for a third day to hover above $49 a barrel on Wednesday, hit by a large jump in U.S. crude stocks and weak economic data that dented hopes of demand recovery in the world’s top energy user.

The market is waiting to see if the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly report, due later in the day, confirms the higher-than-expected build in crude inventories from the American Petroleum Institute.

By 0630 GMT (2:30 a.m. EDT), U.S. crude for May delivery was down 6 cents at $49.35 a barrel, after falling to $48.92 earlier, and by nearly 1.3 percent overnight. ICE Brent crude was down 17 cents at $51.79 a barrel.

Oil prices have been stuck in a $47-$54-range for the past four weeks, having recovered from a low of $32.40 in December. They are still down almost $100 from a record high above $147 last July.

“Crude fell on the back of weaker-than-expected March retail sales, which also dragged on equities, and the main worry is still the large weekly increase in crude inventories,” said Peter McGuire, the Managing Director of Commodity Warrants Australia.

Industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that U.S. domestic crude stocks had risen by 6.5 million barrels last week, much higher than a 1.9 million-barrel increase forecast in a Reuters poll.

The EIA report, due at 1430 GMT, is likely to show that U.S. crude oil supplies rose for the sixth consecutive week, probably to the highest in almost 19 years as imports rebounded, a Reuters poll of analysts showed.

Collapsing demand has been the main driver of the builds. In its monthly outlook released on Tuesday, the EIA cut its 2009 world oil demand forecast by 180,000 barrels per day to just over 84 million bpd.

This comes after the International Energy Agency (IEA) slashed its world oil demand forecast for 2009 last Friday, sending oil prices down by 4 percent on Monday.

Oil and other markets have been lifted by some glimmers of hope that the U.S. economy was turning around. But U.S. stocks slumped overnight as surprisingly bearish retail sales figures dimmed hopes the recession was abating.

The data, which showed that sales at U.S. retailers fell an unexpected 1.1 percent in March after rising for two straight months, sparked selling across the market.

“The market will be watching for the early results of the U.S. reporting season and the impact on equities — there’s a very close correlation between oil and stock markets,” said Mark Pervan, a senior commodity strategist with ANZ Bank.

The dollar and yen rallied after the disappointing U.S. retail sales data and investor caution about corporate earnings boosted safe-haven flows into the two currencies.

Traders will also be eyeing OPEC’s report, in which it is expected to slash oil demand forecasts. A more bearish view on oil demand could bolster support for a further tightening in supplies. Its last report saw demand dropping by 1.01 million bpd in 2009.

On the supply front, Saudi Arabia will trim oil supplies to some of its Asian customers in May.

Saudi Arabia has been largely responsible for OPEC’s high level of compliance — estimated at around 80 percent — with agreements to cut output by a total of 4.2 million bpd since September last year.

Oil climbs above $49 on OPEC cuts, equities gains

Oil rose above $49 a barrel on Thursday, after falling 2.6 percent the previous day, as further supply cuts by OPEC and gains in stock markets superseded worries about the global economy.

OPEC oil supply fell in March for a seventh consecutive month, but remained above its target as some members of the group pumped more than agreed levels, a Reuters survey showed.

Asian stocks outside Japan and Tokyo’s Nikkei both rose more than 3 percent on Thursday, after U.S. homes sales and manufacturing data gave glimmers of hope that the deep recession was moderating.

“The Nikkei has been pretty strong and oil seems to be keeping up with that,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge in Tokyo. “U.S. stocks rose and there are hopes for recovery of the U.S. economy.”

Oil’s losses on Wednesday were sparked by U.S. government data showing crude stocks had risen more than expected to a 16-year high. Gasoline and distillate supplies also unexpectedly rose.

Crude for May delivery rose 69 cents to $49.08 a barrel by 0401 GMT, after settling down $1.27 a day earlier.

London Brent crude was up 57 cents at $49.01 a barrel.

Oil has fallen nearly $100 from a record high above $147 in July 2008 as the economic downturn dents global energy demand.

“We are swinging back and forth. The real economy is still too weak. U.S. gasoline demand is not doing very well,” said Tony Nunan, risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo. “So that will keep the market from rising too far, but I think OPEC’s cuts will keep the market from falling too far.”

Investors remain sensitive to the raft of economic developments due later on Thursday, which include an expected rate cut by the European Central Bank and U.S. non-farm payrolls data, both of which are likely to put downward pressure on oil prices, he said.

The euro, dollar and yen barely budged as markets awaited the expected cut by the ECB and what it might say on unconventional easing.

Forecasters polled by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls to show a fall of 650,000 for March, similar to the 651,000 shed in February.

Adding a bullish note to sentiment was a draft G20 communique containing a pledge by world leaders to regulate major hedge funds for the first time and set up a new oversight board to monitor the global financial system.

Traders said oil prices could also be affected by news that North Korea had begun fuelling a long-range rocket and could launch it by the weekend, broadcaster CNN said, with the United States and others promising punishment for a move they say violates U.N. resolutions.

Oil falls over $1 as U.S. inventories rise

Oil fell more than $1 a barrel on Wednesday, as U.S. data showed crude stocks were at a fresh 16-year high after growing again last week.

U.S crude futures settled down $1.27 a barrel at $48.39, eroding Tuesday’s 2.6 percent gain. London Brent crude settled down 79 cents at $48.44

The Energy Information Administration data showed a 2.8 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories.

Gasoline stockpiles increased by 2.2 million barrels, running counter to forecasts of a 1.4 million-barrel decline.

“There is no indication in these (EIA) numbers that the economy is strengthening. It looks like more of the same,” said Joseph Arsenio, managing director at Arsenio Capital Management in Larkspur, California.

Oil prices have fallen $100 from highs above $147 a barrel in July 2008 as the economic downturn dents global energy demand.

U.S private sector job losses accelerated in March to 742,000, more than economists’ expectations, according to a report by ADP Employer Services.

The U.S. economy is bracing for job data from the U.S. Labor Department on Friday which monitors public and private sector job losses in the world’s largest energy consumer.

OPEC COMPLIANCE

Producer group OPEC reached agreements in September to remove 4.2 million barrels per day to stem the slide in oil prices, and has delivered almost 80 percent of the promised reduction.

Reuters latest survey put compliance at 79 percent for March, the seventh consecutive month in which the group’s output has declined.

In deciding not to lower its output targets further in March, OPEC said it was giving the world a chance to recover from the economic downturn and looked ahead to this week’s G20 meeting in London to stimulate the economy and help shore up fuel demand.

Few expect instant results, but many analysts say OPEC, which meets again at the end of May to reassess the situation, has taken out enough oil to bolster prices.

In the immediate term the demand outlook is weak, and a flurry of bearish economic news emerged on Wednesday that weighed on stock markets and added pressure on oil prices.

Business confidence in Japan, the world’s second largest economy and the third largest oil consumer, tumbled faster than ever in the first quarter to its worst on record, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan corporate survey showed.

Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Dominique Strauss-Kahn predicted the world economy would contract between 0.5 and 1 percent this year, following on from IMF reports predicting a decrease of up to one percent this year.

GLOBAL MARKETS – Asian shares extend rally, but caution setting in

Asian stocks started the new quarter with more gains after an impressive performance in March on expectations the frail global economy is about to bottom out and hopes the financial system was on the mend.

However, the safe-haven yen also rose on concerns about the fate of General Motors Corp and Chrysler, in a possible sign that more bad news could spur investors to ditch riskier assets just as quickly as they piled in on March.

Oil prices dropped more than 2 percent, dragged down by an industry report showing a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stocks, while gold prices held firm.

Leaders from the G20 group of the world’s biggest economies meet on Thursday with little hope they will find concrete solutions to the worst global economic crisis in decades.

Evidence of economic weakness abound. Data on Wednesday showed Japanese business confidence tumbled to a record low, while reports on Tuesday showed plunging U.S. home prices and consumer confidence holding at just above record lows.

Still, deep interest rate cuts by major central banks — with the European Central Bank expected to cut its benchmark again on Thursday — and stimulus measures are at least comforting stock markets in Asia, which enjoyed in March their best month in a decade.

“The market environment has turned fairly positive. Easier monetary policy worldwide have allowed more liquidity to flow into markets,” said Kwak Joong-bo, a market analyst at Hana Daetoo Securities in Seoul.

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 0.7 percent as of 0330 GMT, building on gains of 14.6 percent in March.

Financial shares such as National Australia Bank and KB Financial Group were among the leading gainers.

Although banks in the region did not hold as many of the junk investments that hurt some of their global rivals, their shares have suffered nonetheless on concerns about the broader financial system.

“People are feeling a lot more confident about banks,” said Chris Halls, a fund manager with Argo Investments Ltd in Australia.

South Korean auto makers such as Hyundai Motor also surged on hopes they will gain market share at the expense of struggling U.S. rivals.

GM warned on Tuesday there was a rising chance it could file for bankruptcy by June, as Fiat SpA and Chrysler executives met in a race to complete a tie-up the U.S. government says Chrysler needs to survive.

U.S. stock futures had been hit during Asia trade on Wednesday after Bloomberg reported U.S. President Barack Obama had decided on a pre-packaged bankruptcy for GM. A senior administration official later called that report “inaccurate.”

CAUTION REMAINS

The concerns over U.S. auto makers did not prevent Asian shares from extending their winning streak with markets in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan leading with gains of nearly 2 percent.

Currency investors were more cautious, sending the safe-haven yen higher.

The dollar index, a gauge of its performance against six major currencies, rose 0.3 percent to 85.773, but off an earlier high of 85.940. But the dollar fell 0.4 percent from late New York trade to 98.60 yen after tumbling as low as 98.21 yen on trading platform EBS.

The New Zealand dollar fell more than 2 percent and its debt rallied strongly after the country’s central bank warned the outlook for the recession-hit economy remained weak and the bank would be keeping rates low for some time.

“Investors fear that RBNZ may adopt unconventional methods of easing monetary policy, if financial conditions continue to tighten,” said Bank of NZ currency strategist Danica Hampton.

The NZ dollar fell to a low of $0.5558, from $0.5700 before the statement. It was trading at $0.5576/80 at 0100 GMT.

U.S., British and Japanese central banks have turned to unconventional steps to pump funds into their economies, including outright buying of government and corporate debt.

It is not clear whether the European Central Bank will follow suit, though analysts do widely expect it to cut its main interest rate by 50 basis points to a record low of 1 percent at its policy meeting on Thursday.

The euro was down 0.5 percent to $1.3185.

In commodity markets, U.S. crude for May delivery slid $1.20 to $48.50 on a report from the American Petroleum Institute showing U.S. crude stocks rose by a greater-than-expected 3.3 million barrels in the week to March 27.

Gold held firm at $920.35 an ounce from its New York’s notional close of $917.15 on Tuesday.

Oil falls 2 pct to below $49 on bearish stocks data

Oil fell over 2 percent towards $48 a barrel on Wednesday, paring much of the previous session’s gains, dragged down by a bearish industry report showing a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stocks and a slew of weak economic data.

U.S crude for May delivery fell $1.20 to $48.46 by 0223 GMT, erasing much of Tuesday’s 2.6 percent gain that lifted the contract to $49.66 a barrel.

London Brent crude fell $1.03 to $48.20.

“The bearish API data is probably the main reason for the sell-off. Investors are probably also seeing last night’s rally as overdone, which is true since the rally came despite all the gloomy economic data,” said Gerard Rigby, an analyst at Fuel First Consulting in Sydney.

Crude futures on Tuesday rose in tandem with Wall Street, which was headed for its best month in six years, despite gloomy data showing U.S. house prices had plunged at a record pace of 19 percent in January, while consumer confidence held just above record lows in March.

But analysts said bearish numbers from the American Petroleum Institute showing crude stocks rose by a greater-than-expected 3.3 million barrels to 357.8 million barrels in the week to March 27, were encouraging investors to take profit.

The API data is seen as foreshadowing a similarly dismal report by the more widely tracked U.S. Energy Information Administration, due to be released later in the day, which is expected to show a 2.5 million barrel increase in oil stockpiles that have already swelled to their highest level since 1993.

Poor business confidence from Japan, the world’s No. 3 energy consumer, also pointed to a bleak near-term demand outlook for oil.

Japanese business confidence tumbled at its fastest pace ever in the first quarter to the worst on record, the Bank of Japan’s tankan corporate survey showed, highlighting the pain companies are facing as the global economic crisis scythes through Japan’s exports.

Compounding the gloom was a forecast by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development that world trade was in free fall and should decline by 13.2 percent in 2009 as the economic crisis cuts demand across the globe.

Oil prices have tumbled nearly $100 from the record high struck last July as the global economic crisis slashed global oil demand for the first time in 25 years.

But recent rally in global stock markets and production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has helped lift oil prices by 9.5 percent in the first quarter, snapping two consecutive quarters of double-digit declines.

“Investors are generally seeing an uptrend in the markets so funds that are looking for somewhere to invest their money are now much quicker to put their money in commodities,” Fuel First’s Rigby said.

“And oil will be a key market for investors since it is relatively easy to move the market and make some money at a much quicker pace.”