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June 22 (Reuters) – The Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX) on Tuesday said oil-trading firm Vitol and investment company TransMarket Group have signed as members for the bourse’s August inauguration.
SMX has so far announced it will trade two energy contracts, West Texas Intermediate crude futures and euro-denominated Brent crude contracts. It will also trade gold. (Reporting by Alejandro Barbajosa; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
June 4 (Reuters) – U.S. crude oil futures fell more than $2 on Friday after a report showed U.S. non-farm payrolls rose in May by a less-than-expected 431,000.
The report had been expected to show 513,000 non-farm jobs were added to the U.S. economy, with a big boost from Census Bureau hiring, compared with an increase of 290,000 in April.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:01 a.m. EDT (1301 GMT), July crude CLN0 was down $1.90, or 2.55 percent, at $72.71 a barrel, having dropped as low as $72.47. The earlier intraday peak was $75.42. (Reporting by Robert Gibbons; Editing by John Picinich)
June 4 (Reuters) – U.S. crude oil futures fell more than $1 on Friday, briefly falling below $73 a barrel, after a report showed U.S. non-farm payrolls rose a less-than-expected 431,000 in May
The report had been expected to show 513,000 non-farm jobs were added to the U.S. economy, with a big boost from Census Bureau hiring, compared with an increase of 290,000 in April.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 8:40 a.m. EDT (1240 GMT), July crude CLN0 was down $1.42, or 1.9 percent, at $73.19 a barrel, having dropped as low as $72.93. The earlier intraday peak was $75.42 and futures were about 35 cents lower ahead of the jobs data. (Reporting by Robert Gibbons; Editing by John Picinich)
NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) – U.S. crude oil futures extended their gains on Wednesday, rising more than $1, after government oil inventory data showed crude oil stocks fell last week, against expectations for a build.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s report said crude oil stockpiles fell 2.2 million barrels, against a forecast for stocks to be up 1.5 million barrels. The EIA report showed gasoline stocks fell and distillate stocks rose.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:41 a.m. EDT (1441 GMT), May CLK0 crude was up $1.10, or 1.31 percent, at $85.15 a barrel, trading from $83.71 to $85.34. (Reporting by Robert Gibbons)
The S and P futures are consolidating with the battle heating up between the bulls and the bears. We continue to receive mixed data from the U. S., preventing investors from committing fully to the concept of an economic recovery.
The theme at present is improvement in manufacturing coupled with a collapsing housing market while producer and consumer prices trend downwards. Although analysts predict the true economic recovery will begin with a turnaround in housing, the fact that all of the data coming from the U. S. isn’t overwhelmingly negative is a relief.
The positive that really sticks out from our screen is the upturn in weekly Unemployment Claims. Although any number over 600k is horrible to say the least, an improvement is welcomed. However, the negatives swirling around the bulls are preventing U. S. equities from skyrocketing.
Therefore, if the consolidation lasts for much longer, the S and P futures run the risk of losing their upward momentum. Conversely, the longer the futures consolidate, the further away our 3rd tier downtrend drifts.
Our correlations are signaling a game-changing move approaching, particularly crude futures and the EUR/USD. Both investment vehicles will be experiencing multiple inflection points soon, implying a return to high volatility.
We’ve seen volume pick up in the S and P futures over the past couple sessions, so we would not be surprised to see a large move in the coming days. We maintain our positive outlook on the S and P futures trend wise unless the collapse below our 2nd and 3rd tier downtrend lines.
Additionally, the futures still have the highly psychological 800 level on their side. Fundamentally, we find supports of 845.25, 839.75, 834.75, 829.5, and 825. To the topside, we see resistances of 850.5, 856.25, 867.75, and 871.5. The S and P futures are currently trading at 850.50.
Copyright 2009 FastBrokers, Latest Forex News and Analysis for Forex, Bullion and Commodity Traders.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange.
The battle back to $50/bbl never materialized yesterday and crude futures continued to freefall from our 1st tie uptrend line. Though we don’t want to be premature, it seems the backbone of the uptrend has been broken. Now, we could always see a strong rally today to get the futures back above our 1st tier uptrend line.
However, our point of no return uptrend line is looking down at price. This is a strong statement, and crude futures could be in for even more large losses before they stabilize. The futures are holding onto April lows for dear life, and if these don’t hold, look out below.
The U. S. will release weekly inventory data today and the number has come in above analyst expectations the last four weeks. Another rise in inventories could force investors to pause and question whether the OPEC production cuts are actually having their desired impact on supply.
Today’s inventory release aside, crude futures should continue to follow their tight correlation with U. S. equities for the time being. Therefore, the negative fundamental developments in crude raise a cautionary flag concerning the ability of the S and P futures to hold 800.
Fundamentally, we find resistances of $48.21/bbl, $48.74/bbl, $49.28/bbl, $49.72/bbl, and $50.20/bbl. To the downside, we see supports of $47.72/bbl, $47.32/bbl, $46.89/bbl, $46.42/bbl, and $45.92/bbl. Crude futures are presently trading at $48.04/bbl.
Crude Daily Commentary for 4.8.09
Copyright 2009 FastBrokers, Latest Forex News and Analysis for Forex, Bullion and Commodity Traders.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange.
The S and P futures continued their selloff yesterday as well-regarded economists, including Dallas Fed’s Fisher, flooded the wires with negative outlooks concerning the health of the economy and solvency of banks. Although the present pullback has been brisk, it hasn’t been supported by high volume or U. S. economic data. Regardless, the selloff has taken the wind out of the rally’s sails.
The S and P futures went as far as to dip below our 1st tier trend line. However, investors will need very negative news on the earnings or data front to send the futures back below the critical 800 level.
That being said, the rally in the S and P futures has been disappointing by failing to eclipse our 3rd tier downtrend line and February highs. As a result, the futures are creating the possibility of a return to the devastating downtrend of the economic crisis. Focus will remain on corporate earnings until Thursday’s trade balance and unemployment claims release.
On a positive note, economic data releases are showing signs of improvement in Britain and the EU, adding to speculation that the economic crisis is subsiding. Conversely, Japan’s economy continues to unravel with no signs of a bottom.
Correlation wise, crude futures have crashed below our 1st tier uptrend line and the highly psychological $50/bbl. Since crude and equities have been tightly correlated, the deterioration taking place in the fundamentals of crude futures are a bit concerning. On the other hand, gold and the 30 Year T-Bond futures continue tier respective lines. Therefore, the S and P’s correlations are painting a mixed picture, highlighting the uncertainty prevalent in the markets right now.
Pushing the distortion aside, everybody’s asking the same question: `Is the economic crisis really over?’ While economic data points in the U. S., EU, and Britain are showing signs of stabilization, they could easily be a pop up on the way down.
Therefore, investors are on guard to see if the all around rally can materialize into something more than a bear market rally. Fundamentally, we find supports of 815, 809.25, 804.75, 799.75, and 794. To the topside, we see resistances of 821.5, 829.5, 834.75, 840.25, and 845.25. The S and P futures are currently trading at 816.50.
Copyright 2009 FastBrokers, Latest Forex News and Analysis for Forex, Bullion and Commodity Traders.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange.
Crude futures are falling sharply Monday morning after being deflected from the inflection point of our 2nd tier uptrend and downtrend lines. The weakness in Crude follows a decline in the S and P futures after IBM’s acquisition of Sun Microsystems appears to have fallen through.
The failed purchase of Sun raises a red flag concerning the health of the economy, and gives investors a reason to take profits after such a large run in Crude. The selloff in Crude is a bit disappointing for bulls since the futures were so close to breaking out of key trend lines and March highs.
Additionally, the decline in Crude this morning is more exaggerated than that of the S and P futures. However, today’s drop in Crude shouldn’t have investors too concerned since the IBM news isn’t critical concerning the state of the overall economy.
Investors will be paying more attention to the earnings season kicking off tomorrow. With economic data release from the U. S. few and far between this week, earnings will play a key role in determining investor sentiment towards U. S. production and individual consumption of Crude.
Therefore, we expect Crude futures to exhibit a tight correlation with the S and P futures throughout the week. On the cautionary side, Crude has just fallen through our 1st tier downtrend line, and it will be interesting to see if the futures can fight back above the trend line today.
Crude remains well above the key $50/bbl mark, and the near-term uptrend is still in play. Fundamentally, we find resistances of $51.73/bbl, $52.05/bbl, $52.46/bbl, $52.86/bbl, and $53.30/bbl.
To the downside, we see supports of $51.28/bbl, $50.80/bbl, $50.38/bbl, and $49.97/bbl. Crude futures are presently trading at $51.53/bbl.
Crude Daily Commentary for 4.6.09
Copyright 2009 FastBrokers, Latest Forex News and Analysis for Forex, Bullion and Commodity Traders.
Oil fell more than $1 a barrel on Wednesday, as U.S. data showed crude stocks were at a fresh 16-year high after growing again last week.
U.S crude futures settled down $1.27 a barrel at $48.39, eroding Tuesday’s 2.6 percent gain. London Brent crude settled down 79 cents at $48.44
The Energy Information Administration data showed a 2.8 million barrel increase in crude oil inventories.
Gasoline stockpiles increased by 2.2 million barrels, running counter to forecasts of a 1.4 million-barrel decline.
“There is no indication in these (EIA) numbers that the economy is strengthening. It looks like more of the same,” said Joseph Arsenio, managing director at Arsenio Capital Management in Larkspur, California.
Oil prices have fallen $100 from highs above $147 a barrel in July 2008 as the economic downturn dents global energy demand.
U.S private sector job losses accelerated in March to 742,000, more than economists’ expectations, according to a report by ADP Employer Services.
The U.S. economy is bracing for job data from the U.S. Labor Department on Friday which monitors public and private sector job losses in the world’s largest energy consumer.
OPEC COMPLIANCE
Producer group OPEC reached agreements in September to remove 4.2 million barrels per day to stem the slide in oil prices, and has delivered almost 80 percent of the promised reduction.
Reuters latest survey put compliance at 79 percent for March, the seventh consecutive month in which the group’s output has declined.
In deciding not to lower its output targets further in March, OPEC said it was giving the world a chance to recover from the economic downturn and looked ahead to this week’s G20 meeting in London to stimulate the economy and help shore up fuel demand.
Few expect instant results, but many analysts say OPEC, which meets again at the end of May to reassess the situation, has taken out enough oil to bolster prices.
In the immediate term the demand outlook is weak, and a flurry of bearish economic news emerged on Wednesday that weighed on stock markets and added pressure on oil prices.
Business confidence in Japan, the world’s second largest economy and the third largest oil consumer, tumbled faster than ever in the first quarter to its worst on record, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan corporate survey showed.
Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Dominique Strauss-Kahn predicted the world economy would contract between 0.5 and 1 percent this year, following on from IMF reports predicting a decrease of up to one percent this year.
Oil fell over 2 percent towards $48 a barrel on Wednesday, paring much of the previous session’s gains, dragged down by a bearish industry report showing a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stocks and a slew of weak economic data.
U.S crude for May delivery fell $1.20 to $48.46 by 0223 GMT, erasing much of Tuesday’s 2.6 percent gain that lifted the contract to $49.66 a barrel.
London Brent crude fell $1.03 to $48.20.
“The bearish API data is probably the main reason for the sell-off. Investors are probably also seeing last night’s rally as overdone, which is true since the rally came despite all the gloomy economic data,” said Gerard Rigby, an analyst at Fuel First Consulting in Sydney.
Crude futures on Tuesday rose in tandem with Wall Street, which was headed for its best month in six years, despite gloomy data showing U.S. house prices had plunged at a record pace of 19 percent in January, while consumer confidence held just above record lows in March.
But analysts said bearish numbers from the American Petroleum Institute showing crude stocks rose by a greater-than-expected 3.3 million barrels to 357.8 million barrels in the week to March 27, were encouraging investors to take profit.
The API data is seen as foreshadowing a similarly dismal report by the more widely tracked U.S. Energy Information Administration, due to be released later in the day, which is expected to show a 2.5 million barrel increase in oil stockpiles that have already swelled to their highest level since 1993.
Poor business confidence from Japan, the world’s No. 3 energy consumer, also pointed to a bleak near-term demand outlook for oil.
Japanese business confidence tumbled at its fastest pace ever in the first quarter to the worst on record, the Bank of Japan’s tankan corporate survey showed, highlighting the pain companies are facing as the global economic crisis scythes through Japan’s exports.
Compounding the gloom was a forecast by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development that world trade was in free fall and should decline by 13.2 percent in 2009 as the economic crisis cuts demand across the globe.
Oil prices have tumbled nearly $100 from the record high struck last July as the global economic crisis slashed global oil demand for the first time in 25 years.
But recent rally in global stock markets and production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has helped lift oil prices by 9.5 percent in the first quarter, snapping two consecutive quarters of double-digit declines.
“Investors are generally seeing an uptrend in the markets so funds that are looking for somewhere to invest their money are now much quicker to put their money in commodities,” Fuel First’s Rigby said.
“And oil will be a key market for investors since it is relatively easy to move the market and make some money at a much quicker pace.”
Crude futures continued their ascent as U. S. equities shot up nearly 7%. Crude has reacted as expected after closing above the psychological $50/bbl and our 2nd tier downtrend line earlier this week.
Despite the gains, the movement was calm considering the furious rally taking place on Wall Street. Perhaps crude futures are reaching overbought levels with 2009 highs approaching. With a lack of economic data from the U. S. today, crude investors are focusing on the incoming manufacturing PMI data from the EU.
Higher levels of manufacturing yield greater consumption of crude during the production process and imply improving consumer sentiment, and falling manufacturing levels imply the opposite.
It seems crude futures will need surprisingly positive production, manufacturing, or inventory data to catapult above January highs and the psychological $60/bbl level.
For the time being, we wouldn’t be surprised to see some profit taking in crude, especially if data from the EU fails to meet expectations. Regardless, the uptrend remains comfortably intact.
Fundamentally, we find supports of $53.30/bbl, $52.69/bbl, $52.36/bbl, and $51.87/bbl. The $50/bbl is a psychological cushion while $55/bbl serves a psychological barrier.
To the topside, we hold our resistances of $53.77/bbl, $54.52/bbl, and $54.9/bbl with fresh top-end hanging at $55.45/bbl. $55/bbl serves as a psychological barrier and $50/bbl acting as a psychological cushion. Crude futures are currently trading at $53.45/bbl.
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Crude Daily Commentary for 4.16.09
Crude futures continue to drag along our 1st tier uptrend line as investors debate trends and whether to leave $50/bbl in the past.
It seems investors could reach a decision soon with our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend and downtrend lines reaching their respective inflection points. We notice the same pattern of inflection in the EUR/USD, meaning the markets could get very volatile at the end of the week.
The data from the U. S. over the past 48 hours continues to send mixed signals regarding the state of the American economy. The confusion is reflected in crude futures with investors unsure whether to bank on a recovery.
However, it feels as if game changing news will come soon with the crude futures growing tired of consolidation. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories came in uncomfortably above expectations yesterday. In fact, the number was eye-popping and it’s shocking the crude futures held up so well.
The startling rise in inventories makes us wary of overall consumer sentiment. On the other hand, the boost in supply could be due to the exponential increase in crude imports from Brazil and Russia.
Either way, the resilience in the futures further exemplifies the fact that investors are holding onto the belief that an economic recovery is underway. We expect crude futures to continue their strong positive correlation with U. S. equities for the time being.
Fundamentally, we maintain our resistances of $50.39/bbl, $51.03/bbl, $51.59/bbl, $52.02/bbl, and $52.49/bbl. To the downside, we hold our supports of $49.81/bbl, $49.28/bbl, $48.87/bbl, $48.37/bbl, and $47.79/bbl. Crude futures are presently trading at $50.29/bbl.
Crude Daily Commentary for 4.16.09
Copyright 2009 FastBrokers, Latest Forex News and Analysis for Forex, Bullion and Commodity Traders.
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. FastBrokers assumes no
responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the
information herein contained. There is a substantial risk of loss in
trading futures and foreign exchange.