Obama budget review may trim 2010 deficit forecast

WASHINGTON, July 22 (Reuters) – The Obama administration may report somewhat better fiscal news when it delivers its mid-session budget review later this week, but the United States still faces a massive deficit and rising debt.

Higher corporate taxes and Wall Street’s quick repayment of a taxpayer bailout could see the projected 2010 U.S. budget deficit fall a bit when the review is released on Friday.

However, the fiscal funding gap would still be the widest on record, highlighting the tough task faced by President Barack Obama’s Democrats as they try to placate voter anger over government spending in an election year.

Obama’s economic team will update forecasts for the deficit and debt over the next decade, while revising estimates for the pace of growth and level of unemployment.

If the economic outlook is dimmed, as some analysts expect, that would further darken a long-term U.S. fiscal picture that already projects debt climbing above 70 percent of GDP.

Investors tend to focus on the long-term outlook, although U.S. government bond yields remain low despite the country’s fiscal challenges, signaling markets so far believe Obama’s pledge to tackle the deficit and debt going forward.

On the other hand, the White House will have the benefit of some more positive short-term news to deliver on Friday.

Analysts expect the deficit for the fiscal year to Sept. 30 to decline from the record $1.56 trillion funding gap projected in Obama’s February budget.

“My guess is … that the deficit number will in fact be a little lower than it had previously been projected, maybe by $100 billion or so,” said Stan Collender, a partner at Qorvis Communications and longtime budget watcher who served on a commission during the 1990s to study budget issues.

If the 2010 deficit came in at $1.45 trillion, it would still be the widest on record, followed by the $1.41 trillion deficit in 2009.

Some observers see the scale of the short-term deficit as academic, considering the severe recession from which the country is still recovering. But they want more convincing White House efforts to phase in budget controls in the future.

DEBT COMMISSION

“We know it is going to be a huge number, over a trillion dollars. And that would be perfectly appropriate given the economic downturn … if, and only if, we had a plan to get out of this mess. And we still don’t,” said Maya MacGuineas, president for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Obama has established a fiscal commission to weigh how to tackle the deficit and debt. The 18-strong bipartisan panel is expected to recommend a mixture of tax increases and spending cuts when its report is delivered by the end of December.

Critics are skeptical it will be able to forge a genuine consensus on how to proceed that will survive the Nov. 2 midterm congressional elections. They also doubt U.S. lawmakers will be prepared to enact the politically painful measures the commission recommends when they are presented to Congress.

Obama spoke to these doubts on Tuesday when he praised the open-minded spirit maintained so far by his commissioners.

“I think it is going to be a good report. But it is still going to require some tough choices, and we’re committed to pursuing those tough choices after we get that report,” he told a joint press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron. Cameron has split ways with Obama and announced severe austerity measures to curb Britain’s own towering debts.

In the meantime, the White House may be able to argue the U.S. budget is already moving in the right direction.

Monthly updates from the Treasury show the budget deficit over the first three quarters of fiscal 2010 has accumulated to $1.004 trillion, or only two thirds of the initial projection with three quarters of the time elapsed.

Part of the boost to 2010 revenues could be higher corporate tax revenues, due to stronger profits.

But the big difference is seen coming from the lower-than-expected costs of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, created by Obama’s predecessor, George W. Bush, to save big U.S. banks during the financial crisis.

TARP’s initial $700 billion price tag has been slashed and now stands at $105.4 billion — $11.4 billion less than at the time of Obama’s February budget — while $198.4 had been paid back to the U.S. Treasury by the end of June.

Analysts say this is positive for the short-term budget picture but is by definition providing only temporary relief.

“People are paying it back and it is a positive. … That just needs to be understood in the right context. The banks can only repay the TARP funds once,” said Alex Brill, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. (Editing by David Alexander; editing by Todd Eastham)

Factbox: Colombian candidates’ main policies

His rival, former Bogota major Antanas Mockus, who has promised to boost investment in Latin America’s No 4 oil producer, is trailing by a wide margin in polls before the vote.

SECURITY POLICIES:

Colombia’s war has eased as FARC rebels have been battered and outlawed militia gangs disbanded. Violence, kidnapping and bombings have dropped off sharply. But Colombia remains the world’s No. 1 cocaine exporter, rebels are still fighting and new quasi-paramilitary gangs have emerged.

* As Uribe’s former defense minister, Santos is well-placed to continue the security policies. He promises “not one step back,” saying he will keep up military pressure on armed groups and focus on crime in the cities by strengthening police forces. He says he will not negotiate with the FARC rebels unless they first cease hostilities.

* Mockus took a tough crime stance in Bogota when he was its mayor and says he will move against the FARC and all criminal gangs, corruption, and Colombia’s drug culture with the same vigor that Uribe went after the FARC. He calls for military and social pressure on guerrillas as a way to peace. But he sees no conditions for talks with the rebels until they halt hostilities. The former university rector says education is key to changing the tolerance of cocaine culture.

THE ECONOMY:

Colombia, a top world coffee exporter and now a major oil producer, is climbing out of recession. But the recovery is moderate with the government expecting 3 percent growth this year. Unemployment stands at 12.4 percent with many Colombians employed in the informal sector, and it is a key campaign issue. The strength of the peso currency has also put exporters under pressure.

* Santos, who is also a former finance minister, wants to lower corporate taxes, clear barriers on investment and help drive growth by developing five areas — roads and other infrastructure, housing construction, oil and mining, agriculture and improved education. He plans to create 2.4 million jobs in the formal sector and bring unemployment to single digits by 2014. An overseas saving fund for commodities revenues would ease peso pressure. His possible finance minister, Juan Carlos Echeverry, says Santos would try to expand the base of Colombians paying taxes to generate revenue. But Santos is not in favor of complicated or prolonged tax reforms.

* Mockus’ possible finance minister, former central bank board member Salomon Kalmanovitz, says Colombia needs a review of public finances to tackle deficits but also needs tax reform to give more incentives to export industries such as textiles, which create more jobs. He says that would stop “Dutch Disease” — a currency so strong it undermines exports — with a concentration on mining and energy. He proposes a tax reform to increase the state’s income by 2 percentage points of GDP and reduce government spending. Kalmanovitz says Mockus would remove some tax benefits for the rich introduced under Uribe, and create a sovereign fund overseas to ease peso appreciation. The candidate himself says he would ask Colombians to pay more to gain more.

FOREIGN POLICY:

A close ally of the United States, Colombia is locked in a diplomatic dispute with Venezuelan leftist President Hugo Chavez, who says Colombia is part of a plot by Washington to attack his OPEC country. Bilateral trade has been slashed. Relations with Ecuador are better, but are still tense after Colombia bombed a FARC rebel camp inside Ecuador in 2008. Colombia has received more than $5 billion in mostly military aid.

* Santos says he and Chavez are like “oil and water,” and Chavez calls Santos a threat to the region. But the Colombian candidate insists the two could still work together. He accuses Chavez of trying to scuttle his presidential bid because he would block Venezuela’s attempts to spread a Cuba-style revolution into Colombia. As defense minister, Santos signed a deal to allow U.S. troops more access to Colombian bases. He says he would develop a more equal relationship with Washington rather than one based only on military aid.

* Mockus has said he would deal with Venezuela with “prudence and respect,” calling the differences a competition of ideas where Colombia can do best by showing its model works better. He was criticized by some for saying that he respected Chavez as an elected president. But he says he would not allow Chavez to push his revolutionary ideas across the frontier and says Venezuela should not meddle in Colombian affairs. Mockus says he is sympathetic to U.S. President Barack Obama but that Colombia needs a more “symmetric” relationship with Washington. He also says he would look to Latin America for unity with regional players like Brazil and for promotion of markets.

(Reporting by Bogota newsroom, Editing by Sandra Maler)

UBS deal not to be tied to bonus issue: Swiss President

(Reuters) – Switzerland’s economy minister said she hoped parliament would not link a deal between UBS (UBSN.VX) and the United States on disclosing secret bank accounts with questions such as bankers’ bonuses, the newspaper Sonntag reported on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the paper NZZ am Sonntag said three members of the government were proposing to link the UBS deal to a clamp-down on big bonuses and other measures to help pave its way through parliament.

Doris Leuthard, who is also president, said parliament’s failure to approve the agreement on disclosing 4,450 accounts that U.S. citizens used to hide money from tax authorities would sour relations between the two countries.

“I hope that parliament distinguishes between the agreement and open questions such as ‘too big to fail’ and regulating bonuses,” she said. “The government wants to solve these problems, but it’s not possible to link them all.”

The deal hit a stumbling block after a Swiss court ruled in January that such a transfer of data would breach existing law, and the government suggested parliament approve the agreement retroactively to solve the dilemma.

The right-wing SVP party, which holds the largest proportion of seats in parliament’s lower house, is against the deal, while the Social Democrats want it linked to questions such as bonuses.

The government will discuss the UBS deal and an interim report on banks that are “too big to fail” at its meeting on Wednesday.

Citing sources close to the government, the NZZ said the foreign, justice and finance ministers had drawn up a four-point proposal to help ensure the UBS deal gets passed.

Companies would not be allowed to charge bonuses over 2 million Swiss francs ($1.87 million) as costs on their corporate taxes, the government would be allowed input on salaries at firms taking state aid, employee stock options would face higher taxes and the “too big to fail” commission’s proposals would get support, the NZZ said.

Reuters reported the finance ministry’s plan on April 12.

Leuthard told Sonntag that she thought banks needed stricter capital adequacy and liquidity rules.

CURRENCY, TRADE

Leuthard also said she hopes the euro does not fall further against the Swiss franc and that she is keen to conclude free trade agreements with India and Ukraine, among other states.

“Because other (euro zone) members have high levels of debt, I hope that the euro doesn’t weaken further,” Leuthard said. “That would be dangerous for our export industry.”

Despite the Swiss National Bank’s policy of fighting an excessive appreciation in the Swiss franc against the euro, the Alpine unit has gained more than 5 percent against the euro since December, in part due to market worries about ballooning debts in Greece and other southern European countries.

Leuthard said Europe accounted for about 70 percent of Swiss exports and that, to take advantage of emerging markets, Switzerland needed to clinch trade deals with the rest of the world faster than the European Union.

“We’re hoping for progress in 2010 with several countries, such as India and Ukraine,” she said. “With Russia and China, I hope to open negotiations. Thailand and Indonesia are also on the list.” (Reporting by Catherine Bosley; Editing by Louise Heavens)

UPDATE 1-UBS deal not to be tied to bonus issue-Swiss President

ZURICH, April 25 (Reuters) – Switzerland’s economy minister said she hoped parliament would not link a deal between UBS (UBSN.VX) and the United States on disclosing secret bank accounts with questions such as bankers’ bonuses, the newspaper Sonntag reported on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the paper NZZ am Sonntag said three members of the government were proposing to link the UBS deal to a clamp-down on big bonuses and other measures to help pave its way through parliament.

Doris Leuthard, who is also president, said parliament’s failure to approve the agreement on disclosing 4,450 accounts U.S. citizens used to hide money from tax authorities would sour relations between the two countries.

“I hope that parliament distinguishes between the agreement and open questions such as ‘too big to fail’ and regulating bonuses,” she said. “The government wants to solve these problems, but it’s not possible to link them all.”

The deal hit a stumbling block after a Swiss court ruled in January that such a transfer of data would breach existing law, and the government suggested parliament approve the agreement retroactively to solve the dilemma. [ID:nLDE60L1RV]

The right-wing SVP party, which holds the largest proportion of seats in parliament’s lower house, is against the deal, while the social democrats want it linked to questions such as bonuses.

The government will discuss the UBS deal and an interim report on banks that are “too big to fail” at its meeting on Wednesday.

Citing sources close to the government, the NZZ said the foreign, justice, and finance ministers had drawn up a four-point proposal to help ensure the UBS deal gets passed.

Companies would not be allowed charge bonuses over 2 million Swiss francs ($1.87 million) as costs on their corporate taxes, the government would be allowed input on salaries at firms taking state aid, employee stock options would face higher taxes and the “too big to fail” commission’s proposals would get support, the NZZ said.

Reuters reported the finance ministry’s plan on April 12. [ID:nLDE63B0V2]

Leuthard told the Sonntag that she thought banks needed stricter capital adequacy and liquidity rules.

CURRENCY, TRADE

Leuthard also said she hopes the euro does not fall further against the Swiss franc and that she is keen to conclude free trade agreements with India and Ukraine, among other states.

“Because other (euro-zone) members have high levels of debt I hope that the euro doesn’t weaken further,” Leuthard said. “That would be dangerous for our export industry.”

Despite the Swiss National Bank’s policy of fighting an excessive appreciation in the Swiss franc against the euro, the Alpine unit has gained more than 5 percent against the common currency since December, in part due to market worries about ballooning debts in Greece and other southern European countries.

Leuthard said Europe accounted for about 70 percent of Swiss exports and that to take advantage of emerging markets, Switzerland needed to clinch trade deals with the rest of the world faster than the European Union.

“We’re hoping for progress in 2010 with several countries, such as India and Ukraine,” she said. “With Russia and China I hope to open negotiations. Thailand and Indonesia are also on the list.” (Reporting by Catherine Bosley; Editing by Louise Heavens)

Business blasts Abbott’s parental leave plan

Business groups have strongly criticised Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s plan to offer a six-month parental leave plan.

Mr Abbott says the Coalition will offer the pay for parents at their current salary, up to a ceiling of $150,000, rather than the Government’s scheme of 18 weeks paid at the minimum wage.

He says his policy would give parents financial security and the time they need to bond with their newborn.

Mr Abbott says the scheme will give families a better deal than what the Government is offering and would be funded by a new levy on larger businesses.

He argues big businesses have the capacity to pay, with some of them already offering paid parental leave.

But Chamber of Commerce and Industry spokesman Peter Anderson says he is fiercely opposed to the idea.

“The major beneficiaries of a paid maternity leave scheme, the employees, get off scot-free,” he said.

“They pay nothing, but the employers who are far less beneficially rewarded through this scheme end up carrying the full cost. That is unfair.

“No matter how sincerely Tony Abbott or the Federal Opposition or indeed the Government hold the issue of paid parental leave, the idea of taxing industry to pay for this social policy is a mistake.”

The Business Council of Australia is also against Mr Abbott’s plan.

“We think it should be a shared responsibility,” chief executive Katie Leahy said.

“All our income taxes and our corporate taxes should be part of the payment system for maternity leave.”

In a statement, Heather Ridout from the Australian Industry Group described the scheme as flawed, unrealistic and a deterrent to investment in Australia.

‘Thought bubble’

Meanwhile, the Federal Minister for Women, Tanya Plibersek, has questioned Mr Abbott’s about-face on paid parental leave.

Ms Plibersek says his proposal is not a commitment but a thought bubble. She says when Mr Abbott was in government he was opposed to paid parental leave.

“His words at that time were ‘paid parental leave – over this government’s dead body’,” she said.

“He’s been a consistent opponent of paid parental leave. He’s particularly been a consistent opponent of making businesses pay for paid parental leave.”

Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young has also weighed in on the debate, saying Mr Abbott’s proposal should be increased to 26 weeks’ paid leave.

“We know that 26 weeks is good. We know that business clearly needs to be part of that. It’s now about working through the detail,” she said.

Federal Sex Discrimination Commissioner Elizabeth Broderick says she is pleased with the Opposition’s proposal and says it should not be a disincentive for businesses to employ women.

“Businesses in many cases already have private schemes,” she said.

“The real issue will be to see how they integrate their private schemes with a national government paid parental leave scheme.”

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in New Zealand

By Gyles Beckford

WELLINGTON, March 1 (Reuters) – After facing the risk of a sovereign downgrade last year, New Zealand’s economic fortunes have improved, although the recovery is proving to be patchy as a high local currency curbs exports and consumers remain wary in the face of low wage growth and rising unemployment.

Following is a summary of key New Zealand political risks:

* PUBLIC DEBT AND POLICY CONSTRAINTS

New Zealand’s public finances remain pressured as revenue continues to feel the pinch from the global crisis, forcing hefty government borrowing to finance the shortfall. The government needs to keep a tight hold on its fiscal position with ratings agencies hovering in the background. New Zealand’s economic fortunes have improved and there is no imminent risk of a downgrade, but the country’s debt level and the constraints it places on policy remain a key theme.

What to watch:

– National debt and budget deficit data. If New Zealand fails to meet its target deficits in coming years, it could again face the risk of a downgrade by sovereign ratings agencies. This would push down not just debt prices <0#NZBONDS=RNZL> NZDIRS but also the Kiwi dollar NZD=D2 and shares .NZ.

– The timing of withdrawal of economic stimulus will be important in reducing budget deficits and borrowing, and should help ease pressure on interest rates. But as with most economies, if the exit is wrongly timed, growth could take another hit.

* TAX REFORM

A major report commissioned by the government said the tax system is broken and needs a radical shake-up. Its proposals include closing loopholes and anomalies that have given property investment a favoured position; raising the level of the indirect value-added Goods and Services Tax (GST) but compensating low-income earners; cutting the top personal tax rate and corporate taxes; and considering a land tax. [ID:nSGE6010J0]

Many of the recommended measures are politically difficult, and a land tax and capital gains tax on family homes have already been ruled out. The package to be unveiled in the May 22 budget will require delicate negotiations between the ruling National Party and its partners. Any hint of favouring big business over individuals, or increased tax burdens on families, could lead to tension and a rapid decline in National’s high political ratings. An election is not due until late 2011 but National has shown itself to be sensitive to public opinion.

What to watch:

– The government has said its budget will contain tax reforms, which are likely to see a lowering of personal tax rates but a rise in the value-added Goods and Services Tax (GST). It has also said it will change the tax treatment of residential property investment. A rise in GST to 15 percent from 10 percent, as widely tipped, would result in a one-off boost to consumer prices of 2.2 percent over the following 12 months.

* THE TROUBLESOME KIWI DOLLAR

A further headache for government policy is the fact that the Kiwi dollar has a life of its own, because it is widely used by global markets as a proxy play for risk appetite and global growth prospects. At times it faces significant volatility that has nothing to do with New Zealand’s domestic economic fortunes.

What to watch:

– Policy response. Finance Minister Bill English and the central bank governor Alan Bollard have said repeatedly that the currency is not reflecting fundamentals and is overvalued. But they have also conceded there is little they can do about it, given that it is largely a reflection of a weak U.S. dollar. Any sign that speculative trading might be curtailed by the authorities could drive the Kiwi sharply lower.

* GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS

The centre-right National Party leads a minority government with the support of three smaller partners. The three have pledged to support National on key matters of supply and confidence, ensuring its political survival, but much of the rest of National’s political programme comes down to negotiation on specific policies. This leads at times to compromise and delays.

What to watch:

– The government is expected to last its three-year term but at times may struggle to push through pieces of policy, or be forced to make concessions that are unpopular with its support base in order to get laws passed.

– The outcome of negotiations with indigenous Maori people over control of the foreshore and seabed may be difficult and test relations with one of the support parties, the Maori Party. (Editing by Andrew Marshall)