IPCC has underestimated climate-change impacts, say scientists

Washington, March 20 (ANI): A team of scientists has determined that the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 4th assessment report underestimates the potential dangerous impacts that man-made climate change will have on society.

According to Charles H. Greene, Cornell professor of Earth and atmospheric science, “Even if all man-made greenhouse gas emissions were stopped tomorrow and carbon-dioxide levels stabilized at today’s concentration, by the end of this century, the global average temperature would increase by about 4.3 degrees Fahrenheit, or about 2.4 degrees centigrade above pre-industrial levels, which is significantly above the level which scientists and policy makers agree is a threshold for dangerous climate change.”

“Of course, greenhouse gas emissions will not stop tomorrow, so the actual temperature increase will likely be significantly larger, resulting in potentially catastrophic impacts to society unless other steps are taken to reduce the Earth’s temperature,” he added.

“Furthermore, while the oceans have slowed the amount of warming we would otherwise have seen for the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the ocean’s thermal inertia will also slow the cooling we experience once we finally reduce our greenhouse gas emissions,” he said.

This means that the temperature rise we see this century will be largely irreversible for the next thousand years.

“Reducing greenhouse gas emissions alone is unlikely to mitigate the risks of dangerous climate change,” said Green.

“Society should significantly expand research into geoengineering solutions that remove and sequester greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere,” he said.

“Geoengineering solutions must be in addition to, not replace, dramatic emission reductions if society is to avoid the most dangerous impacts from climate change,” he added. (ANI)

Big impact of climate change on India’s farm yields: World Bank

New Delhi, May 25 (IANS) Dryland farmers in Andhra Pradesh may see their incomes decline by 20 percent, the sugarcane yield in Maharashtra may go down 30 percent, and there may be much more flooding in the Orissa coast, says a new World Bank report.

Pointing out that this will have a serious impact in a country where 57 percent of the people are directly dependent on agriculture, the report, Climate Change Impacts in Drought-and Flood-Affected Areas: Case Studies in India, says the country can improve its resilience to climate change through a combination of measures and right incentives aimed at multiple levels of government.

The report, the first of its kind in South Asia, was released here Monday. It looks at options of adaptation to climate change in two drought-prone regions of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra and a flood-prone region in Orissa.

“Although climate change impacts may take decades to manifest, there is a need for action now to avoid higher future costs and missed opportunities associated with a development path that compromises on climate risk management,” said Richard Damania, environmental economist in the World Bank and leader of the study.

“For example, the report says incomes on the small rain-fed farms in Andhra Pradesh could decline by five percent under modest climate change and by over 20 percent under harsher conditions, bringing farmers closer to, and in many cases, under the poverty line.

“Many of the actions and policies that would build future climate resilience produce development benefits here and now. Focussing on these measures would thus yield a double dividend for development and climate sustainability.”

At the release of the report, acknowledging the need for action, J. Mauskar, additional secretary in the Ministry of Environment and Forests, said: “This report endorses our approach and shows the way forward in addressing future problems.”

The report makes a strong case for a shift in agricultural systems in order to overcome future climate change pressures. For example, climate models predict that under the climate change scenario, sugarcane yields are expected to decline by nearly 30 percent in Maharashtra, as a result of increased moisture stress caused by warmer climate in the future.

“While much is already occurring across the country and there is research in dryland farming for rice, horticulture, and numerous other crops, small and medium farmers in dryland areas will need greater support with knowledge and policy assistance to make this transition work on a large scale,” said Priti Kumar, senior environmental specialist, World Bank, and co-author of the Study.

Water management also remains a formidable challenge. The climate change projections indicate that even when farmers have largely adapted to arid cropping patterns, increased demand and consequent water stress could severely jeopardise livelihoods and diminish agricultural productivity.

Amongst its several suggestions to better manage climate risks, the report has called for setting up a climate information management system to help integrate baseline information into policy, planning and investment decisions.

It advocates building climate risk assessment as a requirement for all long-lived infrastructure projects; explores new and innovative financial instruments to promote income diversification in rural areas; emphasises the need for aggressively pursuing water conservation and controlling groundwater demand at a larger geographical scale and suggests strengthened support for agricultural research and extension to promote sustainable modes of dryland farming.

The report also warns of high risks associated with complacency. It predicts considerable and mounting human toll from climate change and highlights the need for mitigating avoidable costs, particularly among the vulnerable sections of society.

Its recommendations include exploring “new and innovative financial instruments to promote income diversification in rural areas”.

‘Super reefs’ near East Africa can fend off climate change

Washington, April 24 (ANI): A new study has suggested that some coral reefs off East Africa are unusually resilient to climate change, and can be termed as ‘super reefs’.

The study, conducted by researchers at the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), showed that the reefs have become super tough due to improved fisheries management and a combination of geophysical factors.

The study found that Tanzania’s corals recovered rapidly from the 1998 bleaching event that had wiped out up to 45 percent of the region’s corals.

The researchers attribute the recovery of Tanzania’s coral reefs due in part to direct management measures, including closures to commercial fishing.

Areas with fishery closures contained an abundance of fish that feed on algae that can otherwise smother corals, while the few sites without any specific management measures remain degraded.

The findings also showed that the structure of the reefs played a major factor in their resiliency.

Tanzania’s reefs are particularly complex and experience unusual variations in current and water temperature.

These factors allow for greater survivorship of a higher diversity of coral species, including those that can quickly re-colonize after bleaching.

“Northern Tanzania’s reefs have exhibited considerable resilience and in some cases improvements in reef conditions despite heavy pressure from climate change impacts and overfishing,” noted Wildlife Conservation Society scientist Dr. Tim McClanahan, the study’s lead author.

“This gives cause for considerably more optimism that developing countries, such as Tanzania, can effectively manage their reefs in the face of climate change,” he added.

According to the researchers, reefs in Tanzania and elsewhere that exhibit similar environmental conditions have the ability to recover from large-scale climatic and human disturbances.

They may, therefore, be a priority for conservation under predicted climate change scenarios where many reefs are expected to suffer further degradation.

The study provides additional evidence that globally important “super reefs” exist in the triangle from Northern Madagascar across to northern Mozambique to southern Kenya and, thus, should be a high priority for future conservation action. (ANI)

Indicator shows climate change affecting Europe’s birds now

Washington, March 4 (ANI): In what is the world’s first indicator of the climate change impacts on wildlife at a continental scale, scientists have determined that climate change is already having a detectable impact on birds across Europe.

The finding is a result of a study by Durham University scientists working with the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds.

They have shown a strong link between recent population changes of individual species and their projected future range changes, associated with climate change, among a number of widespread and common European birds, including the goldfinch and the lesser spotted woodpecker.

By pulling together Europe-wide monitoring data, the team has compiled an indicator showing how climate change is affecting wildlife across Europe.

The European Union (EU) has adopted the indicator as an official measure of the impacts of climate change on the continent’s wildlife; the first indicator of its kind.

According to Dr Stephen Willis, of Durham University, “The impact of climatic changes, both positive and negative, can now be summarised in a single indicator which we’ve called the Climatic Impact Indicator.”

A period of stable annual average temperatures in Europe ended in the early 1980s, and this new Indicator shows that climate change is affecting many species, but in different ways.

Climate change is having an adverse effect on many birds, though some species are actually benefiting from the recent changes.

“Our indicator is the biodiversity equivalent of the FTSE index, only instead of summarising the changing fortunes of businesses, it summarises how biodiversity is changing due to climate change,” said Dr Willis.

“Those birds we predict should fare well under climate change have been increasing since the mid-80s, and those we predict should do badly have declined over the same period. The worry is that the declining group actually consists of 75 per cent of the species we studied,” he explained.

The Climate Change Indicator combines two independent strands of work; bioclimate envelope-modelling and observed populations trends in European birds, derived from the Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme.

When a bird’s population changes in line with the projection, the indicator goes up. Species whose observed trend does not fit the projection cause the indicator to decline.

According to RSPB’s Dr Richard Gregory, “We hear a lot about climate change, but our paper shows that its effects are being felt right now. The results show the number of species being badly affected outnumbers the species that might benefit by three to one.” (ANI)

Indicator shows climate change affecting Europe’s birds now

Washington, March 4 (ANI): In what is the world’s first indicator of the climate change impacts on wildlife at a continental scale, scientists have determined that climate change is already having a detectable impact on birds across Europe.

The finding is a result of a study by Durham University scientists working with the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds.

They have shown a strong link between recent population changes of individual species and their projected future range changes, associated with climate change, among a number of widespread and common European birds, including the goldfinch and the lesser spotted woodpecker.

By pulling together Europe-wide monitoring data, the team has compiled an indicator showing how climate change is affecting wildlife across Europe.

The European Union (EU) has adopted the indicator as an official measure of the impacts of climate change on the continent’s wildlife; the first indicator of its kind.

According to Dr Stephen Willis, of Durham University, “The impact of climatic changes, both positive and negative, can now be summarised in a single indicator which we’ve called the Climatic Impact Indicator.”

A period of stable annual average temperatures in Europe ended in the early 1980s, and this new Indicator shows that climate change is affecting many species, but in different ways.

Climate change is having an adverse effect on many birds, though some species are actually benefiting from the recent changes.

“Our indicator is the biodiversity equivalent of the FTSE index, only instead of summarising the changing fortunes of businesses, it summarises how biodiversity is changing due to climate change,” said Dr Willis.

“Those birds we predict should fare well under climate change have been increasing since the mid-80s, and those we predict should do badly have declined over the same period. The worry is that the declining group actually consists of 75 per cent of the species we studied,” he explained.

The Climate Change Indicator combines two independent strands of work; bioclimate envelope-modelling and observed populations trends in European birds, derived from the Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme.

When a bird’s population changes in line with the projection, the indicator goes up. Species whose observed trend does not fit the projection cause the indicator to decline.

According to RSPB’s Dr Richard Gregory, “We hear a lot about climate change, but our paper shows that its effects are being felt right now. The results show the number of species being badly affected outnumbers the species that might benefit by three to one.” (ANI)

Indicator shows climate change affecting Europe’s birds now

Washington, March 4 (ANI): In what is the world’s first indicator of the climate change impacts on wildlife at a continental scale, scientists have determined that climate change is already having a detectable impact on birds across Europe.

The finding is a result of a study by Durham University scientists working with the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds.

They have shown a strong link between recent population changes of individual species and their projected future range changes, associated with climate change, among a number of widespread and common European birds, including the goldfinch and the lesser spotted woodpecker.

By pulling together Europe-wide monitoring data, the team has compiled an indicator showing how climate change is affecting wildlife across Europe.

The European Union (EU) has adopted the indicator as an official measure of the impacts of climate change on the continent’s wildlife; the first indicator of its kind.

According to Dr Stephen Willis, of Durham University, “The impact of climatic changes, both positive and negative, can now be summarised in a single indicator which we’ve called the Climatic Impact Indicator.”

A period of stable annual average temperatures in Europe ended in the early 1980s, and this new Indicator shows that climate change is affecting many species, but in different ways.

Climate change is having an adverse effect on many birds, though some species are actually benefiting from the recent changes.

“Our indicator is the biodiversity equivalent of the FTSE index, only instead of summarising the changing fortunes of businesses, it summarises how biodiversity is changing due to climate change,” said Dr Willis.

“Those birds we predict should fare well under climate change have been increasing since the mid-80s, and those we predict should do badly have declined over the same period. The worry is that the declining group actually consists of 75 per cent of the species we studied,” he explained.

The Climate Change Indicator combines two independent strands of work; bioclimate envelope-modelling and observed populations trends in European birds, derived from the Pan-European Common Bird Monitoring Scheme.

When a bird’s population changes in line with the projection, the indicator goes up. Species whose observed trend does not fit the projection cause the indicator to decline.

According to RSPB’s Dr Richard Gregory, “We hear a lot about climate change, but our paper shows that its effects are being felt right now. The results show the number of species being badly affected outnumbers the species that might benefit by three to one.” (ANI)