Buba sees German GDP +1.9 pct in 2010, +1.4 pct in 2011

June 11 (Reuters) – Germany’s economic recovery picked up in the spring after a sluggish winter but joblessness is likely to rise, the Bundesbank said on Friday.

In its bi-annual forecasts, the German central bank said it expected exports and inventory cycles to support economic growth in the euro zone’s biggest economy, which it saw expanding by 1.9 percent in 2010 before slowing to 1.4 percent in 2011.

“Since early spring the world economy has increasingly shown positive momentum,” the Bundesbank said. “Initially the main drivers (for Germany) will be exports and momentum from inventory cycles.”

In a staff projection released on Thursday, the European Central Bank raised its forecasts for economic growth in the euro zone for 2010 but lowered them a little for 2011. [ID:nLDE6591UR]

Further job losses in Germany are likely, as industry continues to reduce staff although the number of people employed in the services sector should increase, the Bundesbank said.

The jobless total should rise from 3.3 million this year to 3.4 million in 2011 — equivalent to an unemployment rate of 8.0 percent, from 7.9 percent this year.

Inflation pressures were seen as “restrained”, with harmonised annual inflation rates of 1.2 percent this year and 1.6 percent in 2011. (Reporting by Brian Rohan)

France pressing for euro zone leaders group-press

May 31 (Reuters) – French President Nicolas Sarkozy is pressing his European partners to set up a group of euro zone leaders with a secretariat to act as an economic government for the single currency bloc, Le Monde said on Monday.

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“Nicolas Sarkozy is looking for ways to get Germany back into the European game,” the newspaper said in an article published on its web site.

“According to his entourage, the French president once again envisages the creation of a forum of heads of state and government from the euro zone, with a secretariat, which would be the true economic government of Europe,” it said.

The newspaper noted that Germany had already rejected similar proposals for a formal body to coordinate economic governance in the euro zone.

But it said Paris believed firmer budget commitments by euro zone governments and other concessions, such as approving Bundesbank President Axel Weber to succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as the head of the European Central Bank could help sway Berlin.

“If it judges that the guarantees that have been obtained are sufficient, Germany might accept the Eurogroup,” Le Monde said.

The newspaper said that French authorities were moving cautiously with the idea in order not to provoke any open rejection from Berlin.

“The French president has taken the precaution of not describing publicly the economic government which he envisages because a display of Franco-German disagreement could be fatal to the euro,” the newspaper said. (Writing by James Mackenzie; Editing by Charles Dick)

Bundesbank must remain independent, Zeitler says

BERLIN, April 11 (Reuters) – The Bundesbank will not agree to any new national financial supervision structure that might impinge upon its independence, a board member of the German central bank said in a newspaper interview published on Sunday.

Financials

Franz-Christoph Zeitler told the Welt am Sonntag weekly that the Bundesbank is in principle willing to play a greater role in banking supervision if the government requests it.

But he pointed out there was no central bank in the euro zone under the control of a finance ministry and noted that view was shared by the entire Bundesbank board, thus setting the stage for a showdown with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government.

“The Bundesbank didn’t push forward and seek to take complete control of banking supervision,” Zeitler said.

He added the Bundesbank could only agree to plans put forth by Merkel’s centre-right government if financial watchdog BaFin is integrated into the Bundesbank and independence is preserved.

Under one “holding group” model, a new Bundesbank “holding group” would be set up by law to control three pillars, according to media reports.

BaFin would become one pillar and would lead supervision of the banking sector, insurers, and securities trading. Financial supervision is now divided between BaFin and the Bundesbank.

The Bundesbank, with its responsibilities for monetary policy, would remain as a second pillar — without its existing banking supervision tasks.

Next to the first two pillars, bank rescue fund Soffin, which was set up in October 2008 in response to the financial crisis, would be developed into a permanent emergency fund for banks and insurers.

Welt am Sonntag said parliament and the government insist they have control because if a rescue is needed taxpayer money would be at stake. But the Bundesbank rejects the model because it fears its independence could be compromised if the Finance Ministry would have a say in a key Bundesbank area. (Writing by Erik Kirschbaum; editing by Mike Nesbit)

ECB official warns of risks from low interest rates

Hamburg – A senior European Central Bank (ECB) warned Wednesday that cutting interest rates below 1 per cent could severely hit money markets and result in lending between banks freezing up.

In a speech delivered in Hamburg, Axel Weber, the president of Germany’s influential central bank the Bundesbank, said that trimming rates in the 15-member eurozone to below 1 per cent could mean banks lending with each other would become “completely paralyzed.” Weber is also a member of the ECB’s governing council.

The Frankfurt-based ECB reduced its key refinancing rate to 1.25 per cent earlier this month with ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet signalling that the bank could cut again possibly as early as next month in the face of dwindling inflation and the global recession.

While Weber also indicated that he believed the ECB had room to trim borrowing costs again, he said in his speech he was “critical” of reducing the refinancing rate below 1 per cent saying this would remove the catalyst for interbank lending.

Trichet has consistently ruled out zero interest rates for the eurozone, with the ECB considering following up moves by the world’s other leading central banks to use non-standing measures to help spur economic growth. (dpa)