EU bank stress tests face their own test in markets

(Reuters) – EU tests of banks’ ability to withstand financial shocks, criticized as too easy after only 7 out of 91 failed, face their own stress test in the markets on Monday with early signs pointing to a more positive response.

European Union policymakers and regulators voiced relief at Friday’s results but some market analysts and many media commentators derided an exercise in which all listed banks passed as lacking in credibility.

“I see nothing stressful about this test. It’s like sending the banks away for a weekend of R&R,” said Stephen Pope, chief global equity strategist at brokers Cantor Fitzgerald.

There was skepticism about EU regulators’ conclusion that banks need only a total of 3.5 billion euros ($4.5 billion) in extra capital. Market expectations had ranged from 30 to 100 billion euros, although many European banks have already raised capital during the financial crisis.

Only five small Spanish banks, Germany’s state-rescued Hypo Real Estate and Greece’s Atebank failed outright. More than a dozen others scraped through with just over the required 6 percent of Tier 1 capital in the most stressful scenario and are likely to come under market scrutiny.

However, the wealth of data disclosed by banks representing 65 percent of assets, and the commitment of banks, regulators and governments to follow-up action may well outweigh doubts about the stringency of the tests.

In a first market reaction in New York late on Friday, the cost of insuring the debt of large European banks fell further and the euro rose against the dollar despite worries about the tests’ credibility.

Better-than-expected economic data and business confidence surveys suggesting the euro zone will avoid a double-dip recession despite fiscal austerity measures are also helping revive investor confidence in Europe.

HAGGLING

Given the haggling among EU governments and regulators about the stress tests right up to the last moment, the degree of transparency was greater than had been expected a few weeks ago.

Sources familiar with the discussions said Germany fought hard behind closed doors to limit the extent of disclosure.

In the end, most banks — except Deutsche — issued a detailed breakdown of their exposure to the sovereign debt of EU countries, enabling investors to run their own risk simulations to gauge a counterparty’s solidity.

“We have all the sovereign exposure data, and we can go ahead and do our own tests,” said Nial O’Connor, a banking analyst at Credit Suisse.

That should help reopen the interbank lending market, which partially froze at the height of the euro zone debt crisis in May and has remained tight due to fears that banks have been hiding big exposures.

It also responds to one of the major criticisms of the exercise — that the scenario assumed a “haircut” on sovereign debt of countries such as Greece held in banks’ trading books, but not on a longer-term basis in their banking books.

The EU authorities were chastised for refusing to test the impact of a default by Greece.

But European Central Bank governing council member Christian Noyer said euro zone states “have put several hundreds of billions of euros on the table with the support of the IMF to make this hypothesis completely excluded.”

TRANSPARENCY

Spain, which spearheaded the drive for transparency, tested a larger part of its banking system and disclosed more data than any other country, hoping to clear away lingering market suspicion of its smaller banks’ solvency.

However economist Nicolas Veron of the Bruegel think-tank said Madrid had underplayed the recapitalization needs of the cajas, regional savings banks, although its bank resolution fund (FROBE) is well on the way to meeting those needs.

“The Spanish wanted to be seen as the most transparent and deserve praise for the catalyst role they played, but in the end they clearly understated what the cajas need,” he said in a telephone interview.

Veron said follow-up actions by governments and regulators should include pressing weaker banks to recapitalize, if necessary with state help and facilitating cross-border takeovers of weaker banks.

Even before the results were published, National Bank of Greece, Slovenia’s NLB and Civica in Spain announced plans to raise capital.

Italy said it would reopen an offer of government-backed bonds to support its banks, although none failed. Monte dei Paschi di Siena squeaked through with 6.2 percent of Tier 1 capital under the most stressful scenario, and UBI Banca with 6.8 percent.

Veron said the success of the exercise would depend partly on whether European regulators adopt a more cooperative approach after the stress tests than they did before them.

“If this is the start of a beautiful friendship among EU supervisors, then that’s not the same as if the united front crumbles next week and they start criticizing each other again,” he said.

(Editing by Andrew Roche)

UPDATE 1-BioMerieux blames austerity for sales target cut

PARIS, July 22 (Reuters) – French in-vitro diagnostics company BioMerieux (BIOX.PA) cut its 2010 sales growth target to 6 percent from 7 percent on Thursday partly due to healthcare budget cuts in Western Europe as austerity measures take hold.

BioMerieux, which supplies systems used to diagnose infectious diseases and analyse samples, said it was sticking to its 2010 operating margin target of 17-18 percent.

In addition to healthcare budget cuts, Chief Executive Stephane Bancel also blamed the end of the H1N1 “swine flu” pandemic and the low incidence of seasonal flu for the target cut.

The company, which has a market value of 3.5 billion euros ($4.47 billion), said on Thursday that net sales for the first half of 2010 rose 6 percent year-on-year to 651 million euros.

Although growth was flat in Western Europe in the first half, with laboratories sharply cutting back on spending, regions such as the Middle East, Africa and Asia boosted sales.

BioMerieux has been expanding its innovation and international development through bolt-on acquisitions in China and partnerships with companies like Philips Electronics (PHG.AS) to develop fully automated handheld diagnostic tests for hospital use.

The company bought a 10 percent stake in U.S. human genomics company Knome in April. It signed an agreement with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) in May to develop a novel molecular test for cancer. ($1=.7838 Euro) (Reporting by Lionel Laurent; Editing by James Regan)

WRAPUP 1-Faurecia, Plastic Omnium upbeat after strong H1

PARIS, July 22 (Reuters) – French car parts maker Faurecia (EPED.PA) raised its full-year targets on Thursday while smaller supplier Plastic Omnium (PLOF.PA) made upbeat comments about the coming months as rising car demand boosted first-half results.

Carmakers and suppliers hurt by a deep industry crisis and a dramatic sales slump have benefited in recent months from scrappage schemes and rising emerging market sales, combined with an underlying recovery in economic activity in Europe.

Faurecia, which makes seats, exhausts and emissions control systems for carmakers including BMW (BMWG.DE) and Opel [GM.UL], said it saw product sales up 13-16 percent for the full year, compared with a previous target of a 4 percent rise.

Faurecia said it was aiming for over 340 million euros in operating income in the year as a whole, compared with an earlier target of over 200 million. Net cash flow would be over 100 million euros, rather than simply “positive”, it added.

Chief Executive Yann Delabriere told BFM Radio he expected the group to post a net profit for the year.

“We can easily imagine that the net profit will remain comfortably positive for the year as a whole,” he said.

Analysts had predicted first-half sales from car suppliers and carmakers would be strong, but warned there were still doubts about the second half as scrapping schemes fade and austerity measures kick in. [ID:nLDE66F083]

Plastic Omnium had a first-half net profit of 72.3 million euros, up from 8 million in the first half of 2009 and more than double the 31 million euros it posted in the full year.

The first-half operating margin reached 7.3 percent, compared with 3 percent in the first half last year. The group is expecting business to remain “dynamic” in the second half, it said in a statement.

Faurecia, 57.4 percent-owned by French carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroen (PEUP.PA), posted a 33.2 percent like-for-like rise in product sales in the first half to 5.4 billion euros. Overall sales rose 26.9 percent like-for-like to 6.8 billion.

Operating income swung to a 216.5 million euro profit from a 187.3 million euro loss in the first half of 2009. Net income reached 101.9 million euros, against a 364.6 million net loss.

The group said second-half sales would likely fall 5-8 percent in Europe. Sales soared in the second half of last year with scrapping schemes in full swing, providing an unfavourable basis for comparison.

Sales in the second half are set to rise 11-14 percent in North America and surge 20-25 percent in Asia, Faurecia said.

Faurecia last month set out ambitious growth and profitability targets and said it wanted to speed up development in Asia. [ID:nLDE65D11I]

For a story on truckmaker Volvo see [ID:nLDE66L06A]

(Reporting by Helen Massy-Beresford; Additional Reporting by Gilles Guillaume; Editing by James Regan and Michael Shields)

WRAPUP 1-Faurecia, Plastic Omnium upbeat after strong H1

PARIS, July 22 (Reuters) – French car parts maker Faurecia (EPED.PA) raised its full-year targets on Thursday while smaller supplier Plastic Omnium (PLOF.PA) made upbeat comments about the coming months as rising car demand boosted first-half results.

Carmakers and suppliers hurt by a deep industry crisis and a dramatic sales slump have benefited in recent months from scrappage schemes and rising emerging market sales, combined with an underlying recovery in economic activity in Europe.

Faurecia, which makes seats, exhausts and emissions control systems for carmakers including BMW (BMWG.DE) and Opel [GM.UL], said it saw product sales up 13-16 percent for the full year, compared with a previous target of a 4 percent rise.

Faurecia said it was aiming for over 340 million euros in operating income in the year as a whole, compared with an earlier target of over 200 million. Net cash flow would be over 100 million euros, rather than simply “positive”, it added.

Chief Executive Yann Delabriere told BFM Radio he expected the group to post a net profit for the year.

“We can easily imagine that the net profit will remain comfortably positive for the year as a whole,” he said.

Analysts had predicted first-half sales from car suppliers and carmakers would be strong, but warned there were still doubts about the second half as scrapping schemes fade and austerity measures kick in. [ID:nLDE66F083]

Plastic Omnium had a first-half net profit of 72.3 million euros, up from 8 million in the first half of 2009 and more than double the 31 million euros it posted in the full year.

The first-half operating margin reached 7.3 percent, compared with 3 percent in the first half last year. The group is expecting business to remain “dynamic” in the second half, it said in a statement.

Faurecia, 57.4 percent-owned by French carmaker PSA Peugeot Citroen (PEUP.PA), posted a 33.2 percent like-for-like rise in product sales in the first half to 5.4 billion euros. Overall sales rose 26.9 percent like-for-like to 6.8 billion.

Operating income swung to a 216.5 million euro profit from a 187.3 million euro loss in the first half of 2009. Net income reached 101.9 million euros, against a 364.6 million net loss.

The group said second-half sales would likely fall 5-8 percent in Europe. Sales soared in the second half of last year with scrapping schemes in full swing, providing an unfavourable basis for comparison.

Sales in the second half are set to rise 11-14 percent in North America and surge 20-25 percent in Asia, Faurecia said.

Faurecia last month set out ambitious growth and profitability targets and said it wanted to speed up development in Asia. [ID:nLDE65D11I]

For a story on truckmaker Volvo see [ID:nLDE66L06A]

(Reporting by Helen Massy-Beresford; Additional Reporting by Gilles Guillaume; Editing by James Regan and Michael Shields)

UPDATE 1-Hungary rules out austerity to IMF/EU, markets fall

BUDAPEST, July 19 (Reuters) – Hungary’s government insisted on a new financial sector tax this year and ruled out further austerity measures at talks with international lenders that were suspended at the weekend, the economy minister said on Monday.

The forint plunged about 2.7 percent in early trading on Monday to 289.70 versus the euro EURHUF=D2 after a review of Hungary’s funding agreement signed in Oct. 2008 fell through on Saturday when lenders said the new centre-right government needed to take tougher measures to rein in the budget deficit. [ID:nLDE66G0AP]

Government bond yields jumped 20-25 basis points after the open in illiquid trade.

Talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU ended prematurely on Saturday without concluding the country’s programme review.

This means Hungary will not have access to remaining funds of about 5.5 billion euros ($7.1 billion) in its 20 billion euro financing deal until the review is completed.

Even though the country is not under immediate financing pressure, it has been using the IMF/EU loan as a safety net this year so the lack of agreement risks damaging investor confidence. [ID:nLDE66I08V]

Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy told public television m1 on Monday that the IMF and EU have voiced concerns over a 200 billion forint tax planned by the government to contain the budget deficit and a bill which would cut the central bank governor’s salary.

“Hungary has experienced a programme of austerity over the past five years, we inherited this from the previous governments and we would like to do away with the unfortunate consequences of these steps,” Matolcsy said.

“We have told our partners that further austerity packages were out of the question.” The IMF said in a statement on Saturday that Hungary will need to take additional measures to meet its deficit targets this year and in 2011, set out in its current financing deal and in line with the country’s obligations with the European Union.

In a separate statement, the European Commission said the reducing Hungary’s deficit by next year “will require tough decisions, notably on spending.”

Hungary’s new government has pledged to meet this year’s budget deficit target of 3.8 percent of GDP, which Matolcsy reaffirmed on television on Monday, but he said this should be done primarily with the help of the planned tax on banks.

“We will impose the bank tax, we know this is a significant extra burden but we also know that with this we can achieve the 3.8 percent deficit,” he said.

“It is either bank tax or austerity, these are the two ways of thought.”

For highlights of Matolcsy’s comments click [ID:nLDE66I07T]

(Reporting by Gergely Szakacs and Krisztina Than; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

Hungary govt says further austerity not an option

July 19 (Reuters) – Hungary’s government stuck to its plans for a new financial sector tax this year and ruled out further austerity measures at talks with international lenders that were suspended at the weekend, the economy minister said.

Gyorgy Matolcsy also told public television m1 in an interview on Monday that International Monetary Fund and EU representatives have voiced concerns over the 200 billion forint tax and a bill which would put a ceiling on public sector pay, including the central bank governor’s salary.

A review of Hungary’s 20 billion euro funding agreement signed in Oct. 2008 fell through on Saturday after lenders failed to get sufficient clarity of the new centre-right government’s economic plans. [ID:nLDE66G0AP] (Reporting by Gergely Szakacs; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Ireland may slow budget reform: gov’t party

(Reuters) – Ireland may not have the political will to bring its budget deficit in line with EU rules as planned by 2014 and could need six years more, the chairman of the smaller governing coalition party the Greens said.

Investors and European leaders have praised Ireland for austerity measures culminating in 4 billion euros ($5.2 billion) of spending cuts imposed in last December’s budget for 2010.

Green Party Chairman Dan Boyle told the Sunday Tribune it was “probably a heresy” for a government party to question whether the deficit could be cut to 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2014 from more than 14 percent in 2009.

“It is certainly doable if you want to be draconian every year,” Boyle was quoted by the newspaper as saying. “But is it politically feasible and is it socially possible?”

Boyle said he still expected the cabinet to deliver the 3 billion euros of savings planned for the 2011 budget in December and then the government could “take stock.”

“I do not see the public appetite continuing,” Boyle said. “It could be that we have neutral budgets for a period.”

Boyle said he was making his comments in acknowledgement of a report by the International Monetary Fund, which expressed doubts over Ireland’s ability to meet the 2014 target.

The Green Party last year debated quitting the alliance with Prime Minister Brian Cowen’s Fianna Fail party due to the strains of the fiscal tightening and bank rescue programme, but its members ultimately decided to stay on board.

BANK BAILOUT COSTS

In a talk show on public radio RTE on Sunday, Boyle said the next parliamentary election — due in 2012 if Cowen can keep the coalition in place until then — would provide an opportunity to debate possibly extending the 2014 fiscal target.

“We have to honor the commitment to the three billion (in savings) in 2011,” he said.

“I think we will have a debate maybe when the general election happens about whether 2014 is the year, whether it could be 2015, 2017, 2020, that we should measure the pain over a longer time period.”

Cowen and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, main architect of the reforms and also from Fianna Fail, have been adamant Dublin must stick to austerity measures and meet the 2014 deadline.

Asked about Boyle’s remarks, a spokesman for Lenihan confirmed the official budget target remained 2014. He did not comment further.

If Ireland loosened its budget discipline, it could cause a flight of investors who already demand a hefty premium for holding Irish sovereign bonds. A row over fiscal policy could also destabilize the already fragile coalition.

(For an earlier analysis on Cowen’s survival prospects as PM please click)

So far, Green ministers have supported the reforms. Boyle is chairman of the party and a member of the upper house of parliament, but not a member of the cabinet.

The budget deficit has risen partly due to the cost of rescuing banks, chiefly nationalized Anglo Irish Bank. The bank costs last year gave Ireland the biggest deficit per GDP in the EU and could push the 2010 deficit as high as 20 percent.

Boyle said he also expected the state to raise its minority holding in another lender, Allied Irish Banks to a majority of up to 70 percent.

(Editing by Mark Heinrich)

UPDATE 2-Ireland may slow budget reform–govt party

DUBLIN, July 18 (Reuters) – Ireland may not have the political will to bring its budget deficit in line with EU rules as planned by 2014 and could need six years more, the chairman of the smaller governing coalition party the Greens said.

Investors and European leaders have praised Ireland for austerity measures culminating in 4 billion euros ($5.2 billion) of spending cuts imposed in last December’s budget for 2010.

Green Party Chairman Dan Boyle told the Sunday Tribune it was “probably a heresy” for a government party to question whether the deficit could be cut to 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2014 from more than 14 percent in 2009.

“It is certainly doable if you want to be draconian every year,” Boyle was quoted by the newspaper as saying. “But is it politically feasible and is it socially possible?”

Boyle said he still expected the cabinet to deliver the 3 billion euros of savings planned for the 2011 budget in December and then the government could “take stock”.

“I do not see the public appetite continuing,” Boyle said. “It could be that we have neutral budgets for a period.”

Boyle said he was making his comments in acknowledgement of a report by the International Monetary Fund, which expressed doubts over Ireland’s ability to meet the 2014 target. [ID:nLDE66D0F6] [ID:nLDE65N1GI]

The Green Party last year debated quitting the alliance with Prime Minister Brian Cowen’s Fianna Fail party due to the strains of the fiscal tightening and bank rescue programme, but its members ultimately decided to stay on board.

BANK BAILOUT COSTS

In a talk show on public radio RTE on Sunday, Boyle said the next parliamentary election — due in 2012 if Cowen can keep the coalition in place until then — would provide an opportunity to debate possibly extending the 2014 fiscal target.

“We have to honour the commitment to the three billion (in savings) in 2011,” he said.

“I think we will have a debate maybe when the general election happens about whether 2014 is the year, whether it could be 2015, 2017, 2020, that we should measure the pain over a longer time period.”

Cowen and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, main architect of the reforms and also from Fianna Fail, have been adamant Dublin must stick to austerity measures and meet the 2014 deadline.

Asked about Boyle’s remarks, a spokesman for Lenihan confirmed the official budget target remained 2014. He did not comment further.

If Ireland loosened its budget discipline, it could cause a flight of investors who already demand a hefty premium for holding Irish sovereign bonds. A row over fiscal policy could also destabilise the already fragile coalition.

(For an earlier analysis on Cowen’s survival prospects as PM please click [ID:nLDE6650V4])

So far, Green ministers have supported the reforms. Boyle is chairman of the party and a member of the upper house of parliament, but not a member of the cabinet.

The budget deficit has risen partly due to the cost of rescuing banks, chiefly nationalised Anglo Irish Bank [ANGIB.UL]. The bank costs last year gave Ireland the biggest deficit per GDP in the EU and could push the 2010 deficit as high as 20 percent.

Boyle said he also expected the state to raise its minority holding in another lender, Allied Irish Banks (ALBK.I) to a majority of up to 70 percent.

(Editing by Mark Heinrich)

Irish may halt budget reform early–govt party

July 18 (Reuters) – Ireland may not have the political will to bring its budget deficit in line with EU rules as planned by 2014, the chairman of the smaller governing coalition member Green Party was quoted as saying on Sunday.

Investors and European leaders have praised Ireland for austerity measures culminating in 4 billion euros ($5.2 billion) of spending cuts imposed in last December’s budget for 2010.

Green Party Chairman Dan Boyle told the Sunday Tribune it was “probably a heresy” for a government party to question whether the deficit could be cut to 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2014 from more than 14 percent in 2009.

“It is certainly doable if you want to be draconian every year,” Boyle was quoted by the newspaper as saying. “But is it politically feasible and is it socially possible?”

Boyle said he still expected the cabinet to deliver the 3 billion euros of savings planned for the 2011 budget in December and then the government could “take stock”.

“I do not see the public appetite continuing,” Boyle said. “It could be that we have neutral budgets for a period.”

The Green Party last year debated quitting the alliance with Prime Minister Brian Cowen’s Fianna Fail party due to the strains of the fiscal tightening and bank rescue programme, but its members ultimately decided to stay on board.

Cowen and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan, the main architect of the reforms and also from Fianna Fail, are adamant Dublin must stick to austerity measures for the next four years.

If Ireland loosened its budget discipline, it could cause a flight of investors who already demand a hefty premium for holding Irish sovereign bonds.

So far Green ministers have supported the reforms. Boyle is chairman of the party and a member of the upper house of parliament, but not a member of the cabinet.

The budget deficit has risen partly due to the cost of rescuing banks, with much of it spent on nationalised Anglo Irish Bank [ANGIB.UL].

Boyle said he also expected the state to raise its minority holding in another lender, Allied Irish Banks (ALBK.I) to a majority of up to 70 percent.

(Reporting by Andras Gergely; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks down for 4th day; dollar subdued

LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) – World equities fell for the fourth day running on Monday and the dollar traded close to two-month lows on growing concerns of slowdowns in the United States and China — the two main pillars of global growth.

Trading was expected to be light on Monday because of the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

The U.S. labour market, which shrank for the first time this year in June, slower Chinese manufacturing activity and euro zone austerity measures fuelled concerns over prospects for the global economy.

“Double-dip (recession) fears are the pervading influence on market psychology at present even as European sovereign (debt) concerns appear to be easing,” said Mitul Kotecha, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong. World stocks measured by MSCI All-Country World Index .MIWD00000PUS drifted 0.1 percent lower after three consecutive sessions of declines. The index has lost 16 percent since mid-April, and is down 11 percent for the year.

The index carried a one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9, a level last seen in April 2009 and well below its 10-year average of 15.42, according to Thomson Reuters DataStream.

Europe’s FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 slipped 0.2 percent, with the continent’s banks .SX7P falling 0.6 percent.

French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde said on Saturday that stress test results to be published on July 23 will show that “banks in Europe are solid and healthy.”

In Asia, Tokyo’s Nikkei average .N225 put on 0.7 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC dropped 0.8 percent. DOLLAR NEAR TWO-MONTH LOW

The dollar .DXY added 0.1 percent against a basket of major currencies, recovering slightly from a near two-month low as traders held back from chasing the greenback lower given the U.S. market holiday.

The euro paused after last week’s boost from unwinding of short and leveraged positions. It slipped 0.2 percent to $1.2534 EUR= and dipped 0.2 percent to 110.07 yen EURJPY=R.

The single European currency has lost 12.4 percent against the U.S. currency so far this year, though attention now appears to have turned to concerns of a slowdown in the United States and away from the euro zone’s banking and government debt woes.

“The dollar is responding to weak signs in the U.S. economy,” said Lee Hardman, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

BNP Paribas said investors can cheaply hedge a cross-asset portfolio against the risk of a double dip in global growth with currencies as the foreign exchange market has deep liquidity and cheap implied volatility.

In a note, it recommended investors short a basket of 2/3 Australian dollar AUF=D4 and 1/3 New Zealand dollar NZD= and long a mix of Swiss franc CHF= and yen JPY=.

Global growth worries also sent German Bund futures FGBLc1 41 ticks higher to 129.72 from Friday’s settlement close, and yields on benchmark 10-year Bunds EU10YT=RR fell 4 basis points to 2.547 percent.

(Additional reporting by Kevin Plumberg in Hong Kong, Charlotte Cooper in Tokyo, and Tamawa Desai and George Matlock in London; editing by John Stonestreet)

Romania – Factors to Watch on June 25

June 25 (Reuters) – Here are news stories, press reports and events to watch which may affect Romanian financial markets on Friday.

Energy

ROMANIA TOP COURT DELAYS DECISION ON PAY CUTS

Romania’s top court suspended debate on the government’s drastic cuts in public spending, demanded by the IMF as a condition for resuming loans, and may rule on the austerity measures when it meets again on Friday.

[ID:nLDE65N1Q6]

GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER IN ROMANIA

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle is on a one-day visit to Romania. He is expected to meet President Traian Basescu and Foreign Minister Teodor Baconschi.

PROTESTS

Trade unions plan a rally with up to 4,000 people in front of the president’s headquarters on Friday, protesting against the government’s IMF-backed austerity plan and asking the president not to approve the laws that are now debated by the constitutional court.

Agerpres

ROMANIA M3 MONEY SUPPLY UP 1.0 PCT M/M IN MAY

For a table, double-click [ID:nLDE65N0JF]

RETAIL

Swiss clothes retailer H&M plans to open its first store in Romanian in the first half of 2011.

Ziarul Financiar, Page 1

FONDUL PROPRIETATEA

The listing of the state-owned investment fund Fondul Proprietatea on the Bucharest bourse could happen in the second half of this year, the fund’s head Ionut Popescu told daily Evenimentul Zilei.

The statement comes after the parliament approved some regulations related to the organization of the fund this week.

Evenimentul Zilei, Page 10

EU DEVELOPMENT COMMISSIONER

EU Development Commissioner Andris Piebalgs is expected to meet Finance Minister Sebastian Vladescu and Economy Minister Adreian Videanu of Friday, during his official visit to Romania.

Agerpres

NOTE- For a diary of forthcoming Romanian events, double

click [RO/DIARY], and a calendar of east European economic indicators, see [CONV/DIARY].

For other related news, double click on: ————————————————————— Romania Market Debt [RO-DBT] Romanian forex [RO-FRX] Romania Market Report [ROL/] Romanian money [RO-M] Emerging Market Debt [EMRG/DBT] Emerging forex [EMRG/FRX] All Emerging Markets news [EMRG] CEE indicators [CONV/DIARY] All East Europe News [EEU] E.Europe equities [.CEE] TOP NEWS — Emerging markets [TOP/EMRG] TOP NEWS — Convergence watch [TOP/EAST] Romanian indicators [RO/ECI] Main page of Reuters poll —————————————————————

Germany defends austerity measures ahead of G20

(Reuters) – Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble rejected criticism that Germany was endangering economic recovery with austerity measures, saying the government had a “well-conceived” exit strategy from its stimulus spending.

In a guest column for the Handelsblatt newspaper on Thursday, Schaeuble said he could not understand criticism from abroad that Germany was “wrecking the recovery with austerity measures” because Berlin was doing a lot to stimulate growth.

“There is an implicit accusation that we’re not living up to our international responsibilities as far as economic policies are concerned,” Schaeuble wrote in a contribution for the business daily ahead of the G20 summit this weekend in Toronto.

“I cannot understand this argument because Germany has taken sweeping measures since 2008 to stabilize the economy. We’ve done that on top of all the automatic stabilizers we have (such as higher social welfare spending) that play a much smaller role in countries from which we’re now being criticized.”

Germany recently announced plans for 80 billion euros in budget cuts over the next four years, a package it hopes will bring the structural deficit of Europe’s biggest economy within European Union limits by 2013.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and top White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers wrote in a Wall Street Journal piece on Tuesday that G20 peers should not risk undermining growth for the sake of cutting deficits, echoing a similar call from President Barack Obama.

‘WELL-CONCEIVED EXIT STRATEGY’

Schaeuble pointed to Germany’s budget deficit climbing to five percent of gross domestic product (GDP) as evidence of its commitment to growth-boosting measures.

“It’s true that an abrupt and ill-conceived exit from the stabilization measures could endanger their success,” he said. “But a credit-financed stimulation of demand cannot become a permanent, drug-like fix.

“We need a well-conceived exit strategy. The German government has one. The first consolidation measures won’t take effect until 2011 and amount to less than 0.5 percent of GDP. There’s no way that can be called hitting the brakes.”

Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has vigorously defended its plans to pursue the 80 billion euro savings measures euros in the next four years after Obama preached patience in clamping down on public spending.

On Thursday, Chancellor Angela Merkel dismissed criticism in a separate interview with ARD TV that Germany was not doing enough to stimulate its economy.

Merkel said she had told Obama in a phone call that Germany had done much to support economic growth with stimulus measures.

“Germany is doing much more in 2010 for the worldwide economic recovery than (other countries) on average,” she said.

(Writing by Erik Kirschbaum; editing by Mike Peacock)

Germany defends austerity measures ahead of G20

BERLIN, June 24 (Reuters) – Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble rejected criticism that Germany was endangering economic recovery with austerity measures, saying the government had a “well-conceived” exit strategy from its stimulus spending.

In a guest column for the Handelsblatt newspaper on Thursday, Schaeuble said he could not understand criticism from abroad that Germany was “wrecking the recovery with austerity measures” because Berlin was doing a lot to stimulate growth.

“There is an implicit accusation that we’re not living up to our international responsibilities as far as economic policies are concerned,” Schaeuble wrote in a contribution for the business daily ahead of the G20 summit this weekend in Toronto.

“I cannot understand this argument because Germany has taken sweeping measures since 2008 to stabilise the economy. We’ve done that on top of all the automatic stabilisers we have (such as higher social welfare spending) that play a much smaller role in countries from which we’re now being criticised.”

Germany recently announced plans for 80 billion euros in budget cuts over the next four years, a package it hopes will bring the structural deficit of Europe’s biggest economy within European Union limits by 2013.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and top White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers wrote in a Wall Street Journal piece on Tuesday that G20 peers should not risk undermining growth for the sake of cutting deficits, echoing a similar call from President Barack Obama. [ID:nN22169279]

‘WELL-CONCEIVED EXIT STRATEGY’

Schaeuble pointed to Germany’s budget deficit climbing to five percent of gross domestic product (GDP) as evidence of its commitment to growth-boosting measures.

“It’s true that an abrupt and ill-conceived exit from the stabilisation measures could endanger their success,” he said. “But a credit-financed stimulation of demand cannot become a permanent, drug-like fix.

“We need a well-conceived exit strategy. The German government has one. The first consolidation measures won’t take effect until 2011 and amount to less than 0.5 percent of GDP. There’s no way that can be called hitting the brakes.”

Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has vigorously defended its plans to pursue the 80 billion euro savings measures euros in the next four years after Obama preached patience in clamping down on public spending.

On Thursday, Chancellor Angela Merkel dismissed criticism in a separate interview with ARD TV that Germany was not doing enough to stimulate its economy. [ID:nLDE65N04E]

Merkel said she had told Obama in a phone call that Germany had done much to support economic growth with stimulus measures.

“Germany is doing much more in 2010 for the worldwide economic recovery than (other countries) on average,” she said. (Writing by Erik Kirschbaum; editing by Mike Peacock)

ECB’s Trichet says susterity plans don’t risk stagnation

(Reuters) – Budget austerity plans will not drag the euro zone economy into stagnation, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was quoted on Thursday as saying.

In an interview with Italy’s La Repubblica newspaper, he urged governments to push ahead with necessary budget and structural reforms, repeating calls for more fiscal discipline in the 16-nation bloc.

“As regards the economy, the idea that austerity measures could trigger stagnation is incorrect,” Trichet said, according to an English-language transcript published on the ECB’s Internet site.

“I firmly believe that in the current circumstances, confidence-inspiring policies will foster and not hamper economic recovery, because confidence is the key factor today.”

Trichet said Germany was showing the right commitment to tackle budget problems with its plans for 80 billion euros ($98 billion) in budget cuts over the next four years, and said Italy was on the right track.

The ECB has urged a system of sanctions and incentives, including a separate budget watchdog, as part of an overhaul of EU fiscal rules.

The Stability and Growth Pact “should be the equivalent of a federal budget in terms of ensuring sound policies. This is why we want the Stability and Growth Pact to be strong, solid and fully respected,” Trichet told the paper.

DENIES DEFLATION RISKS

In a letter to G20 leaders last week, President Barack Obama warned against the premature withdrawal of stimulus policies and urged flexibility in implementing fiscal policy to safeguard and strengthen the recovery.

Billionaire investor George Soros said on Wednesday Germany’s budget savings policy risked destroying the European project, pushing weaker euro zone members into a cycle of deflation. [ID:nLDE65M0TD]

Asked about the risk of deflation, Trichet said: “I don’t think that such risks could materialize,” adding that inflation expectations were well anchored.

Trichet said the euro, which has recently recovered from four-year lows, was a very credible currency because it had safeguarded price stability and was therefore a “major asset” to investors.

Asked if he expected concrete results from the upcoming Group of 20 meeting in Toronto, Trichet said he was confident important decisions would be taken by the end of the year.

A bank tax, banks’ capital and rating agencies were all important elements, he said. “I am confident that we are on the right track, knowing that a number of important decisions are to be taken at the G20 meeting in November this year.”

He declined to comment on Bundesbank President Axel Weber’s criticism of the ECB’s decision to buy government bonds, and on the profile of his successor. Weber and Italy’s central bank governor Mario Draghi are seen as the frontrunners to replace Trichet in November 2011.

“I have a very heavy responsibility, with all my colleagues of the Executive Board and of the Governing Council. And my mandate expires in one year and four months. That is a long and demanding period of time. It is premature for me to comment on my possible successor,” he said.

(Reporting by Krista Hughes; Editing by Jan Dahinten)

UPDATE 1-ECB’s Trichet: austerity plans don’t risk stagnation

FRANKFURT, June 24 (Reuters) – Budget austerity plans will not drag the euro zone economy into stagnation, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was quoted on Thursday as saying.

In an interview with Italy’s La Repubblica newspaper, he urged governments to push ahead with necessary budget and structural reforms, repeating calls for more fiscal discipline in the 16-nation bloc.

“As regards the economy, the idea that austerity measures could trigger stagnation is incorrect,” Trichet said, according to an English-language transcript published on the ECB’s Internet site.

“I firmly believe that in the current circumstances, confidence-inspiring policies will foster and not hamper economic recovery, because confidence is the key factor today.”

Trichet said Germany was showing the right commitment to tackle budget problems with its plans for 80 billion euros ($98 billion) in budget cuts over the next four years, and said Italy was on the right track.

The ECB has urged a system of sanctions and incentives, including a separate budget watchdog, as part of an overhaul of EU fiscal rules.

The Stability and Growth Pact “should be the equivalent of a federal budget in terms of ensuring sound policies. This is why we want the Stability and Growth Pact to be strong, solid and fully respected,” Trichet told the paper.

DENIES DEFLATION RISKS

In a letter to G20 leaders last week, President Barack Obama warned against the premature withdrawal of stimulus policies and urged flexibility in implementing fiscal policy to safeguard and strengthen the recovery.

Billionaire investor George Soros said on Wednesday Germany’s budget savings policy risked destroying the European project, pushing weaker euro zone members into a cycle of deflation. [ID:nLDE65M0TD]

Asked about the risk of deflation, Trichet said: “I don’t think that such risks could materialise”, adding that inflation expectations were well anchored.

Trichet said the euro, which has recently recovered from four-year lows EUR=, was a very credible currency because it had safeguarded price stability and was therefore a “major asset” to investors.

Asked if he expected concrete results from the upcoming Group of 20 meeting in Toronto, Trichet said he was confident important decisions would be taken by the end of the year.

A bank tax, banks’ capital and rating agencies were all important elements, he said. “I am confident that we are on the right track, knowing that a number of important decisions are to be taken at the G20 meeting in November this year.”

He declined to comment on Bundesbank President Axel Weber’s criticism of the ECB’s decision to buy government bonds, and on the profile of his successor. Weber and Italy’s central bank governor Mario Draghi are seen as the frontrunners to replace Trichet in November 2011.

“I have a very heavy responsibility, with all my colleagues of the Executive Board and of the Governing Council. And my mandate expires in one year and four months. That is a long and demanding period of time. It is premature for me to comment on my possible successor,” he said. (Reporting by Krista Hughes; Editing by Jan Dahinten)

ECB’s Trichet sees no deflation risks emerging in euro zone

June 24 (Reuters) – European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was quoted on Thursday as saying he does not see deflation risks materialising in the euro zone.

Bonds

In an interview with Italy’s La Repubblica newspaper, he also denied that budget cuts would drag on growth in the 16-nation region.

Aasked about the risk of deflation, he said: “I don’t think that such risks could materialise”, adding that inflation expectstions were well anchored.

“As regards the economy, the idea that austerity measures could trigger stagnation is incorrect,” Trichet said, according to am English-language transcript published on the ECB’s Web site. (Reporting by Krista Hughes)

Five world markets themes next week

(Reuters) – Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.

1/ FRAGILE OPTIMISM

With potentially problematic euro zone debt auctions out of the way without mishap, albeit at a price, and little euro zone sovereign issuance due in the coming week, the ability of world stocks and higher-yielding currencies to extend gains will depend more on economic data than has been the case recently. As long as pre-G20 comments don’t rattle markets, flash PMIs, Germany’s IFO, a Fed policy meeting decision and the language the U.S. central bank uses to explain its decision will show whether it is the sharp fall in Germany’s ZEW index or the more upbeat U.S. industrial output data which better reflects the economic outlook. Such signals will be crucial given fiscal austerity measures across a growing number of developed countries pose risks to economic recovery that will affect all asset classes.

2/ TESTING STRESS

The correlation between European peripheral sovereign bond spreads and the European banking index has broken down in the past week and a half with the latter rebounding as much as 14.3 percent from June 8 lows even as some euro zone spreads have kept widening (notably the Spanish/German one). Problems facing some banks in accessing funds have not gone away. However, EU countries’ greater inclination to publish more detailed bank stress testing results will encourage investors to show ever greater discrimination between banking stocks rather than tarring the whole sector with the same brush – as long as the test assumptions stand up to close scrutiny.

3/ FINDING MOMENTUM IN UNCERTAIN TIMES

Stocks are clawing their way up from a six-week fall but the drop in trading volumes and the dearth of major U.S. or European corporate results have got some wondering how long the positive momentum can continue without more concrete signs of improving economic health and corporate profitability. This is the sort of evidence it will take to offset the market volatility and uncertainty which prompted investors to pull $7.3 billion out of U.S. equity mutual funds in May, according to Lipper analysis. All the more so given volatility in key market influences such as credit ratings: Evolution Securities cites research showing that on average it takes 6,693 days for a rated entity to fall from A2 to Ba1 – a ratings shift that took Greece just 55 days.

4/ CAUTION STILL THE WORD

With the European debt crisis being cited as far afield as Asia as a risk to the global economy, the post-FOMC statement next week will be perhaps most interesting for whether it will warrant a mention there. Whatever the U.S. central bank says, it is unlikely to change financial market expectations that it will be the first of the three major Western central banks to tighten monetary policy, not least as the European Central Bank has committed itself to offering unlimited funds at three-month lending operations until the end of the year. That might tilt the balance in favor of German notes and bonds outperforming U.S. paper, but it won’t guarantee it, especially if investors’ bigger focus is on holding liquid non-euro zone sovereign debt.

5/ SOVEREIGN FOCUS CROSSES THE CHANNEL

The emergency UK budget which will be unveiled next week, and its importance for credit rating firms, has the potential to distract investors’ attention from the concerns about euro zone sovereign credit problems and will determine whether euro/sterling extends its retreat. Further deep spending cuts might raise worries about a double-dip recession and pose a risk to the pound in the short term. However, a longer view might deem austerity measures less damaging to the currency and beneficial for gilts if they attack the structural deficit and reassure ratings firms.

(Compiled by Swaha Pattanaik; editing by John Stonestreet)

Analysts’ View: Flemish separatists set for Belgian election win

(Reuters) – The Flemish separatist N-VA was on course for victory in the Belgian parliamentary election on Sunday.

World

Economists have said that Belgium can ill afford drawn-out coalition talks given its high level of debt.

The following are comments by economists and political analysts.

ETIENNE DE CALLATAY, ECONOMIST AT BANK DEGROOF

“It would surprise me if bond spreads increase on Monday. It’s the confirmation of what we expected. But it could mean that they continue to rise a bit in relation to other European countries.

“The coalition will take a long time. It will take a long time to get an agreement.

“In Belgium it will be difficult to take austerity measures for several months which would mean that we could fall behind other countries in regard to structural reform.”

PHILIPPE LEDENT, ING ECONOMIST

“If the N-VA continues to be extremist in its position, then the game will be very different for other parties. Then it will take much more time to find a majority.

“The most important thing is not which majority we will have. The biggest thing is the question of time, how long do we have to wait before we have a new majority. This is the most important element.

“For the economic situation, it is important to have a new government as soon as possible.

“In this context, I would say finding a new government which is very important for the economy, will depend clearly on N-VA’s attitude.

“I will not characterize the situation as blocked.

“N-VA could have a constructive attitude. We could also have N-VA wanting to stay on its extreme situation, this could lead to a difficult situation for the Belgian economy.

“The most important element is find a majority as soon as possible.

“After September, the reaction of the financial markets would lead to difficult consequences for the Belgian economy.

“I think in the short run, I’m not sure (financial markets’) reaction will be too important. Everybody knew the N-VA would be the biggest party in Flanders, that it would be the biggest winner in the elections.”

“In the medium-term, when negotiations start, if it becomes clear that N-VA stays on its extremist position, then the impact can be more important.”

(Reporting by Ben Deighton and Foo Yun Chee)

Key party attacks draft Spanish labor reform

(Reuters) – Spain’s biggest regional political party, the CiU, on Sunday criticized the government’s draft proposal for labor reform as a “slapdash job” and said it would not support it in its current form.

The government had rushed to draw up its own proposal on Friday after three-way talks with unions and business failed and the draft is unclear on matters like the procedure for firing, CiU spokesman Josep Antoni Duran Lleida told SER radio.

“(We say) no to this labor reform it’s a slapdash job,” Lleida, of the Catalan nationalist party (CiU), said.

Economists see the reform of Spain’s inflexible labor laws as vital to restore Spain’s competitiveness, return the economy to strong growth and prevent a Greek-style debt crisis.

The Catalan nationalist party is an important ally for the Socialist government if it hopes to pass the reform through a parliamentary vote on June 22. The party’s 10 votes would be enough to give the government the majority it needs.

Without them the government, trailing in opinion polls, will have to seek support from several other parties. The reform is due to be approved at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday.

The CiU abstained from a parliamentary vote on austerity measures last month, allowing the government to push through the plan by a single vote.

After European countries were forced to come to the rescue of Greece last month, financial markets have fretted that other ailing euro zone economies like Spain and Portugal could suffer similar debt crises.

Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero on Saturday said the draft package would help generate jobs and boost confidence in the Spanish economy, although the business organization CEOE slammed the proposal saying it would increase employer costs.

Unions have criticized the draft reforms, saying they cater to business rather than workers. They have threatened a general strike if the measures are passed in a parliamentary vote.

Minority unions in the northern industrial regions of the Basque Country and Navarra said on Saturday they would call a general strike on June 29 there in protest at the reform.

Spain’s 20 percent unemployment, the highest in the euro zone, has crimped economic activity, making Spain struggle to emerge from its worst recession in half a century.

The austerity plan would affect economic growth, Economy Minister Elena Salgado said in an interview published in El Pais newspaper on Sunday. It was unlikely there would be net growth in employment in 2010, she said, with job growth more likely to start next year.