June 24 (Reuters) – Danish resistance to swapping Denmark’s crown currency for the euro is stronger than ever, a new opinion poll for Danske Bank (DANSKE.CO) showed on Thursday.
The “No” camp’s lead grew to 11.3 percentage points in June, Danske Bank said, adding that there was little chance of a Danish vote on the euro this side of the next general elections due to be held before the end of November 2011.
Opposition to the euro increased to 54.6 percent in June from 47.4 percent in a similar poll in March.
“This is the largest ‘No’ lead since we launched our EMU poll in 1999,” the bank said in a research note to clients.
Danes rejected the euro in a referendum in 2000, instead pegging the crown to the single European currency within a narrow band EURDKK=. The financial crisis brought a brief groundswell of support for the euro, but that has now vanished.
Looking solely at those who were certain how they would vote, the ‘No’ side had an even more solid lead.
Only 32.1 percent of Danes polled were certain they would vote “Yes”, while 47.8 percent were certain ‘No’ voters — a difference of 15.7 percentage points, Danske Bank said.
“Comparing the results against our last survey in March 2010, the most noticeable shift is in the number of certain ‘No’ voters,” it said.
Furthermore, the Danish central bank’s interest rate cuts have narrowed the official interest rate spread to the euro zone to just 5 basis points over the past year.
“This makes the cost of not being a euro member appear considerably less than it did just 1.5 years ago, when the rate spread briefly rose to 175 bps,” Danske Bank said.
It remains uncertain when Danes might vote again on adopting the euro, Danske Bank said, adding that a referendum would be no easy matter politically for the current centre-right government which favours the euro.
It said there was a big risk that a vote would go against the government, and it noted that the government’s majority in parliament depends on the support of the Danish People’s Party, which opposes the euro.
“Therefore, the government will probably not call a referendum until after the next general election, which is due to take place by November 2011,” Danske Bank said.
Another opinion poll earlier this month by TNS Gallup found that only 36.3 percent would vote for the euro in a referendum while 54.8 percent would vote against, and 8.9 percent in the survey had no opinion [ID:nLDE65F0CI]. (Reporting by John Acher, editing by Mike Peacock)